Wednesday, April 04, 2012

March review of real estate in this region

The latest numbers are out for the Victoria real estate market and once again things are mixed.  

Just looking at some trends in house prices in greater Victoria - both the average and the median

  • Year CRD avg median  Vic avg median  Saan W median   Saan E median  
  • 2006 565,217 439,500 483,392 445,000 428,769 430,000 528,523 491,500 
  • 2007 542,504 489,900 531,082 499,900 496,140 484,950 577,914 525,800 
  • 2008 597,176 529,625 619,333 525,000 532,252 498,500 639,769 621,000 
  • 2009 534,689 503,751 496,261 500,000 491,359 472,500 577,866 539,500 
  • 2010 633,938 569,950 614,698 573,500 566,446 535,000 641,662 625,000 
  • 2011 619,275 568,500 609,440 541,000 549,376 493,500 657,097 612,000 
  • 2012 640,553 558,500 653,300 604,500 601,036 515,500 635,630 594,000 

 The gap between average and median price seems oddly high for last month.  

 If we factor out the 11 sales of waterfront properties, the average for March is only $593,839 for the other 284 single family home sales in this region.

  • Year  Avg with  avg without  diff
  • 2012 $640,553   $593,839     $46,714
  • 2011 $619,275   $596,428     $22,847
  • 2010 $633,938   $605,810     $28,128
  • 2009 $534,689   $526,176      $8,513
  • 2008 $597,176   $566,176     $31,000
  • 2007 $542,504   $518,145     $24,359
  • 2006 $565,217   $477,824     $87,393 - in the graph of prices, March 2006 is a spike out of sync

This highlights the danger of how statistics may not mean what people think they do.

The values for the City of Victoria are also up a lot and for the first time in the last seven years is higher than Saanich East.  I am not sure what is going on there.

Meanwhile here is how sales looked, March 2012 was the slowest March in a long time in this City.

  • Year SFH CRD Vic Saan W Saan E Langford Condo CRD Vic Saan E
  • 2006     413  53   31    79     53            247 112  43
  • 2007     424  61   52    77     57            236 106  30
  • 2008     374  45   52    78     56            170  80  22
  • 2009     324  49   32    68     42            162  53  21
  • 2010     414  46   35    85     57            195  72  28
  • 2011     313  35   33    74     29            168  87  28
  • 2012     295  38   39    60     31            142  56  25

The market remains in flux and there are signs of it being weak and signs of it being OK, values look to be up but sales are down and inventory is at record levels for March.

If I had some more time, I would get all the data from the region for the last seven or years and see what co-relations there are and what it all might mean
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