2014 Oak Bay Election Results

6,058 out of 14,107 voted for a turnout of 42.9%

Mayor

1. Nils Jensen       3.640 (+443) incumbent
2. Cairine Green     2,197 sitting councilor
3. David Shebib        102

Council - 6 to be elected

1. Kevin Murdoch     3,875 (+528) incumbent 
2. Hazel Braithwaite 3,546
3. Tara Ney          3,411 (-488) incumbent 
4. Michelle Kirby    2,587  (-29) incumbent
5. Eric Zhelka       2,584
6. Tom Croft         2,549
7. Max Johannesen    2,165
8. Andrew Stinson    2,053
9. Heather Holmes    2,040
10. Jan Mears         1,265
11. Joan Russow         995

Referendum
Are you in favour of the District of Oak Bay being amalgamated into a larger regional municipality?
No  3,594
Yes 2,184

Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

1996 Oak Bay Election Results

Mayor

1. Chris Causton 2436
2. Bert Caine    1964
3. Phil Nicholls  413

Council - 6 to be elected

1. Frank Carson          3313
2. Fiona Washington      2561
3. Nils Jensen           2517
4. John Pallett          2297
5. Cheryle Scott         2112
6. Allan Roy Cassidy     1953
7. Felicity Tallboy-Gall 1633
8. John Paul             1597
9. Arnold Stewart        1512
10. Vivian Garner         1035
11. Casey Edge            1015
12. Inna Smolov            953
13. Tom Osborne            539
14. Steve Rimek            489
15. John Yasuaki Somogyi-Csizmazia 313
16. Chuck Loveday          221

1999 Oak Bay Election Results

Council 6 to be elected

1. Nils Jensen             2923 (+406) (inc)
2. John Herbert            2564 
3. Allan Roy Cassidy       2389 (+436)(inc)
4. Caroline Macey-Brown    2240
5. Cheryle Scott           1920 (-192)(inc)
6. Irvine Russell          1873
7. Hazel Braithwaite       1765 
8. Casey Edge              1320 (+305)
9. Joan Russow             1117
10. Michael Philip McCluskey 993
11. Mike Baskerville-Bridges 622

Numbers in brackets are changes from 1996 results

2005 Oak Bay Election Results

Mayor
Chris Causton Acclamation

Council - 6 to be elected

1. Frank Carson        2990 (+229) (inc)
2. Nils Jensen         2873 (+361) (inc)
3. John Herbert        2579 (+108) (inc)
4. Pam Copley          2321 (+463)
5. Allan Roy Cassidy   2282  (+71) (inc)
6. Hazel Braithwaite   1956
7. Cheryle Scott       1509 (-354)
8. Elisabeth Silvester 1104
9. Ronald Tefler        488

The numbers in brackets are change from 2002 results

Oak Bay NIMBYs

 There is a new group in existence call Oak Bay Watch which is getting press about their opposition to some of the new houses being built in Oak Bay.   They seem to mainly want to argue that the new houses are too large for the lots, which they are not within the current by-laws, but when looking at their website this is clearly not as much a focus as their hatred of the design of the houses.

The Oak Bay News has recently been full of letters both against new houses and for new houses.

I want to look at a few of the houses they are complaining about:


2277 Central Ave

The old house at 2277 Central Ave on the left

Design of the new house

2277 Central Ave was a very plan and bland 2010 square foot house on a 5520 square foot lot.   The garage seems to have been made into part of house as is very common for older homes.  I suspect the basement was not really properly finished space with decent light.

The house was for sale for $599,000 earlier this year and obviously sold as it the old house is gone and a new one is going up in its place

pic from Oak Bay Watch website

The new house has been designed by Rodier and is being built by Seba Construction.  Other than the exterior colour, I think the design is a nice one. This house has a lot many more windows which should make it a brighter house.  The images of the interior of the old house were VERY white, I assume this has something to do with lack of good light coming into the house.  Do not forget the front of the house is north facing.

The height of the new house is no higher than the previous house and might actually be lower.   I do not have the measurements of the new house, but looking at the picture of it under construction, it is not going to be any larger than the old house was.

Overview of 2277 Central Ave

The property had no significant trees on it that I can see.

This house does not push any of the limits, all it is doing is replacing an old post war bland cookie cutter house (the sort that Malvina Reynolds referred to her song Little Boxes) with something interesting and new.   I see no reason anyone could oppose this house other than they do not like the look which I have trouble understanding because the previous house was ugly.

1058 Monterey Ave

This house was on the market for $685,000.   It is a 9000 square foot lot and had a 1987 square foot house on it.  The house 1987 square feet of house is a bit misleading because the house also has a basement of around 1300 square feet meaning it really is a 3300 square foot house.  The house was built in 1912 and was getting a bit tired, it needed some renovation work.  There seems to be a one car garage at the back of the lot on the lane.

A new house is being built on this lot but Method Built that they are calling Oak Lanes. The house seems like it will be between 3500 and 3800 square feet and a separate studio/garage at the back of the property.

I think this is very cool design

Since early May neighbours have been complaining about the new house that is being built.   Somehow the neighbours think they have a right to decide what someone else's house looks like.   The new house is well within what is allowed on such a large lot and obviously fits within all the set backs and height restrictions.  There is nothing here to compain about other than the look.   The Oak Bay News nicely pointed this out in an editorial.

Among other things, Oak Bay Watch is complaining about the loss of trees.   Three trees that seem to have been 40 or so years old were removed.  The trees were located between the two houses where there is only a ten foot space for the trees.  Two of the trees were going to a clear problem for both houses in the future and were going to have to come down.

Overview of 1059 Monterey Ave

I am sure that Oak Bay Watch really hates the design, it is long narrow house with a lot of large windows facing onto to the lane.   Method Built Homes' Rajinder Sahota recently defended this house in a letter to the Oak Bay News.

The neighbour to the south has a 700 to 750 square foot separate building at the back of the lot that is about the same size as the studio/garage at 1058 Monterey so the extra building at the back can not be an issue.

The design of the new house seems to be doing something innovative with the landscaping, they are getting away from having a lawn, something that most people should be doing since lawns are mono cultures that suck up water.  

Oak Bay Watch is the worst of NIMBYism that I have seen in this City for some time.   If they really do not want people to build new houses maybe they should go out and buy the properties.   If they do not want to spend the money to buy the properties, it is none of their business what people do on their land if they are within the already very restrictive by-laws of Oak Bay.

A Quick History of the Oak Bay Incorporation

I think it was a huge mistake for the City of Victoria not to agree to expand and take in Oak Bay in the early 1900s, but they City said no to the residents of Oak Bay.  This is something we all will have to live with.  

The residents of Oak Bay formed the Oak Bay Improvement Association and decided to go it alone.

The process from the first signature on the petition to Oak Bay being officially incorporated was very fast, only 118 days.   The petition could only be signed by property owners and as far as I can tell companies that owned property could sign as well.

• March 6 1906 - first land owner signed the petition to incorporate - CS Baxter
• April 14 1906 - last of the 103 property owners signed the petition, the Hudson's Bay Company
• May 19 1906 -  petition to incorporate was forwarded to the provincial secretary.    
• June 13 1906 - petition to incorporate was granted by the province
• July 2 1906 - Oak Bay was incorporated

At the time of incorporation there were 243 property owners in Oak Bay and 125 British male subjects.

The first council of Oak Bay was:  WE Oliver as reeve, AE Haynes, William Henderson (future reeve, Henderson Road is named for him), William Noble, Fred Pemberton, Francis Rattenbury and John Sutherland as councilors

Very interestingly, at the time of incorporation one of the biggest landowners in Oak Bay was the City of Victoria.  Clearly the City had designs on using Oak Bay in the future as part of the City.

For the first six years, Oak Bay City Hall was in offices in the Law Chambers building in Bastion Square.

2002 Oak Bay Election

2002  Oak Bay Election Results
For The Office of Mayor Christopher Causton was acclaimed

For the Office of Councillor

1. Frank Carson         2761 
2. Nils Jensen          2512 (-411) (inc)
3. John Herbert         2471  (-93) (inc)
4. Caroline Macey-Brown 2237   (-3) (inc)
5. Allan Cassidy        2211 (-189) (inc)
6. Russell Irvine       2020 (+147) (inc)
7. Cheryle Scott        1863  (-57) (inc)
8. Christin Geall       1862
9. Pam Copley           1858
10. Mike Baskerville-Bridges 813
11. Jim Geiwitz           751
12. Alain Horchower       341

Numbers in brackets are change from 1999 results

Voter Turnout 35.26%

2011 Oak Bay Results

Turnout was 42.05%
Mayor

1. Nils Jensen       3197 - sitting councilor
2. Hazel Braithwaite 2769 - sitting councilor

Council: 6 to be elected  

1. Tara Ney            3899(+815)- incumbent 
2. Pam Copley          3709(+861)- incumbent
3. John Herbert        3624(+696)- incumbent
4. Kevin Murdoch       3347
5. Carine Green        2734 - was a North Saanich councilor
6. Michelle Kirby      2616(+592)
7. Corey Burger        1624(+457)
8. Colleen Kirkpatrick 1454
9. Susan Woods         1264
10. Bill Carver         1125
11. Gregory Hartnell     569

Numbers in brackets are changes in vote from 2008

6029 voters cast 26,665 votes for an average of 4.42 votes per elector

Oak Bay All Candidate's Meeting

The view from Oak Bay

I asked Corey Burger to tell me what his thoughts are on the campaign so far.  Yes, I know he is a candidate, but he normally can articulate the lay of the land fairly.  Here is what he sent me:

Bernard,


Here are some of my collected thoughts on the campaign so far,
accepting that we haven't had an all candidates meeting, so some of
the pressing issues likely haven't come forward yet.


There is a lot of appetite for new planning, whether that be a new
Official Community Plan, or something else. A lot of people have seen
issues in the past three years that could have benefited from that.
Secondary Suites and heritage housing are just two of the bigger
pieces of that.


Not a lot of people are aware of the new Active Transportation Plan,
but most of the people I talk to are very interested in it, and most
tell me stories about their pet peeves and changes they would like to
see. Most people aren't aware that the Community Initiatives
Committee, which I sit on, is even discussing the issue right now.


Other major issues I keep hearing relate to Oak Bay Lodge, and sewage
in general, be it the Uplands Sewage Separation project or the overall
CRD Sewage Treatment plant. People are asking me where those projects
currently are, and I have to tell them that I am uncertain, as the
communication around both hasn't been great.


There are two All Candidates Debates coming up, one on Friday at
Monterey Centre, and the second this coming Tuesday at Emmanneul
Baptist Church. Both are being held from 7-9pm, with doors opening at
6:30.


Cheers,


Corey

The Election in Oak Bay

This time around the election in Oak Bay is going to see significant changes to council.   There will be a new mayor and probably three new councilors.

The council race:
I am 99% sure that Pam Copley, John Herbert and Tara Ney will be re-elected.

I am 100% certain Gregory Hartnell will not get elected and he will finish in last place.

This leaves us with seven more candidates

Corey Burger - a young green oriented candidate.  He came a distant 9th in 2008 and I give him low odds of getting elected this time, I think 9th, maybe 8th for him

Susan Woods - Susan is a friend.  She is a passionate woman that believes this region can be great.  She ran in Victoria in 2008 and the 2010 by-election.   If she lived in Oak Bay I would give her decent odds of getting elected, but Oak Bay, like Esquimalt, are not friendly places for candidates that are not resident in the municipality.  Her home is right on the border with Oak Bay.   I think she will finish between 7th and 9th.

Colleen Kirkpatrick - I can get very little sense of why she is running or how hard she is running.  She is new resident to Oak Bay, that does matter to some long time residents.   6th to 8th is where I see her, but that is more dead reckoning that anything.

Bill Carver - I know nothing about him, I see him coming between 7th and 9th without knowing anything more.

Carine Green - she has been a North Saanich councilor till now but has recently moved to Oak Bay.  I am not certain how strong her Oak Bay connections are.  I see her finishing 4th to 7th.

Michelle Kirby - she ran in 2008 and did respectably well.   She comes from the NDP side of the spectrum and is formally endorsed by the VLC.   I understand she has a strong campaign team.   She could surprise everyone and top the polls.  I see her finishing between 1st and 4th.

I see being on council a very good experience for her and from what I know of her I suspect she will quickly learn how to be a good councilor.

Kevin Murdock - He has the pedigree and connections, I see him getting elected in the middle of the pack.

Mayor Race - Hazel Braithwaite versus Nils Jensen:

Two sitting councilors are running, I honestly can not tell who is more likely to win.  I do not think that Oak Bay would be badly served by either one of them.  

I know very little first hand about Hazel Braithwaite so I really can not say much about here.  I have heard the classic sort of Victoria gossip about her good and bad.

Nils Jensen is someone that has impressed me over the years as very thoughtful.   Everything I know about him says he is not doctrinaire and has a very open mind.    what I know of him is that doing the right thing is much more important than doing the popular thing.

David Bratzer fundraiser at Alix Goolden Hall on November 8th

I like David and I think he would be a good addition to the SD#61 school board.   I find his fundraiser plans impressive.   My plans are to check it out.

Here are the event details:
Schools or Prisons?

The invite is on Facebook
Time: Tuesday, November 8 · 7:30pm - 9:30pm
Location: Alix Goolden Performance Hall

An evening of discussion, music & poetry in support of David Bratzer's campaign for School Board Trustee. Where should our priorities lie? Let's talk about creating the best possible future for children in British Columbia.

Guest speakers include:

DENISE SAVOIE - Member of Parliament and former opposition critic for post-secondary education

MAJOR NEILL FRANKLIN - Retired Baltimore police officer and executive director of Law Enforcement Against Prohibition

DR. EVAN WOOD - Founder of the International Centre for Science in Drug Policy and professor of medicine at UBC

There will also be a few surprise guests! Admission is by donation.

Carine Green currently on North Saanich council to run for Oak Bay council

This is from the Oak Bay News

By Arnold Lim - Oak Bay News
Published: October 11, 2011 6:00 PM
Updated: October 11, 2011 6:14 PM
Another candidate has stepped up to the plate in Oak Bay.
Cairine Green, a sitting second-term councillor in North Saanich, hopes to continue her community service as a councillor in Oak Bay.
“We left a lot of friends in Oak Bay, so we are glad to be back and lucky to be back,” she said of her return to live in the municipality in May 2010. “Coming back was a homecoming for us. We are thrilled.”
Green and her husband, Fred, spent six years in Oak Bay in the 1980s. She believes the jump from rural back to urban won’t be too much of a leap.
“They are very different communities, but they have a lot in common. People are passionate about where they live and value where they live,” she said. “Community and public engagement are vital and common issues in every community. The similarities outweigh the differences.”
While the rural-urban switch is significant, Green looks to move from council in the municipality with the highest average property value in Greater Victoria, to one with the second-highest average value.
Her professional life has included many professions. She has been a probation and parole officer, an educational councillor, a senior policy analyst for the Ministry of Advanced Education and a private counsellor for divorce mediation and child custody.
Politics also runs in her family. Her late father, Arthur Ash, was reeve (the former term for mayor) of Saanich for two terms and served one term as an MLA from 1949-52.
Green said she feels privileged to have served North Saanich residents and would be grateful if people in Oak Bay allowed her to continue that community service.
“I will work very hard on their behalf. I think I am courageous and speak up on behalf of residents, but I am very balanced and they will always know where I stand and why.”
The deadline for submitting nomination papers for next month’s civic election is Friday (Oct. 14).
Prospective candidates can pick up and drop them off their papers at municipal hall, 2167 Oak Bay Ave.
editor@oakbaynews.com

Susan Woods to run for Oak Bay council

I got this press release from Susan via email overnight.   I will be having coffee with her at 10 this morning.

_________________________________________
PRESS RELEASE
October 12, 2011

Susan Woods announces her candidacy for Oak Bay Council

Susan Woods (business owner, journalist and heritage advocate) is seeking a seat on Oak Bay Council in the November election.

Susan is motivated by a strong affinity with the social, heritage and cultural landscape of Oak Bay, and is endorsed by Martin Segger, retired UVic professor and former city councillor.

Her passion for heritage led Susan to develop and host ‘Remember When’ on CFAX Radio for eight years. ‘Remember When’ was an award-winning program that chronicled the region’s rich past and was often focussed on Oak Bay’s early families, architectural heritage, and historical events.

Throughout her television and radio news career, Susan covered provincial and municipal politics. She understands how government works and the impact that local decisions have on our economy, neighbourhoods, and quality of life.

Susan owns and publishes the Moss Rock Review magazine, and is a Communications and Marketing Consultant. She has been recognized with the Hallmark Society’s Heritage Communications Award, and the YWCA Victoria Woman of Distinction Award.

Susan lives on the Oak Bay border with her husband Greg Evans, who is an author and historian.

- 30 -

Media Contact:
Susan Woods
778-679-0617
suewoods@shaw.ca

Oak Bay and Colwood

In both Oak Bay and Colwood the sitting mayors are not running again.    It is now only a week before the labour day weekend and I have still not even heard a rumour of who might be running for either position.

I have floated possible names past people who should be in the know in each municipality and all I get is "I don't think so.".  

I have heard a rumour of a councilor elsewhere in the CRD that is moving to Oak Bay that plans on running in Oak Bay, but I have no confirmation on that for a second source.

I miss the Snug at the Oak Bay Beach Hotel

I am hoping that once the project is done and the hotel is open again, there will be the same sort of ambiance as there was in the Snug in the past.

If you are interested how things are going, the Oak Bay Beach Hotel project has a youtube channel with monthly updates of where the project is at.  I think it is a very interesting for them to make these videos available. Yeah, it is a sales job, but it is worth watching.

This is the latest video:

Oak Bay Gordon Head Recall with four weeks left

According to an article in the News Group the recall efforts are stalling out.   With 25 days to go the campaign is still at least 8000 signatures out from where they need to be.   Latest news from the campaign had them still under 7000 signatures.

This means the number of signatures needed from this point onwards is 320 a day but they have managed only about 200 per day to date.   This masks the fact that in the first two weeks they managed about 60% of their signatures to date in the first 14 days and only 40% in the next 21 days.

Based on the results to date, 10,000 signatures looks like it will be the maximum amount they will achieve, a long way from the close to 16,000 they need.

Recall in Oak Bay Gordon Head

I do not think there is much of a chance of a recall campaign working in this riding for a host of reasons

Oak Bay Gordon Head only managed to get 7266 signatures in the anti-HST petition which is significantly less than the vote for Ida Chong in 2009.  It is also less than half of what is needed to for a recall.   With 60 days and not 90 days and with a target that is much higher, there would have to be a a huge new groundswell against Ida Chong, but there is nothing to indicate this will happen.

The campaign does not focus on personal decisions or actions of Ida Chong but decisions of the whole government.   Certainly Gordon Campbell or Colin Hansen could be said to have a personal responsibility for the HST but Ida Chong is in the same boat as all the government MLAs.  There is no specific reason for anger towards her.

The recall campaigns were said to be there to push the government to change their position on the HST.   The campaign has seen the resignation of Gordon Campbell and all the candidates promise for an earlier referendum or a free vote in the legislature.   The argument for the recall campaign was to get the government to act, well they are acting, any non-partisan person will see the actions of government a reasonable response to the demands of the Anti-HST campaign.   This means it is going to very hard to get most people to sign recall on the basis of the government is not listening

The campaign looks significantly partisan.  Too many of the people involved are very publicly known New Democrats and Moe Sihota has made it clear this is a riding the NDP would like to see recall in Oak Bay Gordon Head because they can win the by-election.  The fact that Moe Sihota is wanting a recall here is going to make a lot of people on the right that signed the Anti-HST petition refuse to sign recall.  

The campaign is not being run by someone from the riding and they do not have their office in the riding and many of the canvassers are not from the riding.   This outside 'interference' is going to make some people refuse to sign the petition.

Meanwhile the MLA will be defending herself and has volunteers going door to door for her.   She is working to galvanize people not to sign.

The campaign period is December 6th to February 4th.   I am not sure who the brain trust that thought these dates made sense.   The fact the campaign goes over the Christmas break means the 60 day campaign losses five days completely and effectively losses 16 days.  Many people in Oak Bay Gordon Head with kids will be leaving town starting on December 17th and not have to return till January 2nd.  

If we take the five lost days and say the other 11 are only half effective, this means the campaign basically losses 10 days of campaign time meaning there are only 50 effective campaign days.

With 50 days and a target of 15368 signatures, this means 308 signatures a day.   Realistically the campaign needs to get at least 16,000, and ideally more like 18,000, to have any hope of reaching the target for enough signatures or 320 to 360 signatures a day.

The first 6000 signatures will be easy to get and should be in hand by the end of next week at the latest.   The next 6000 will be hard to get and will require a lot of canvassing and really needs to in hand before January 1st.   The last 6000 will be very hard to get, it will require serious door to door campaigning and a very hard sell for those that are reluctant to sign.   I do not see how the numbers can be reached.

My guess is that the recall campaign will reach 12,000 or so signatures but not manage to come close to getting the signatures needed.

Oak Bay Beach Hotel

Finally it looks like there will be forward motion on the hotel after a long delay.   The TC reports that the Oak Bay council approved some zoning variances for developer Kevin Walker.

The neighbours have concerns about the changes as the whole development puts the hotel closer to the condo building to the south of the hotel.   I can understand the concerns and remember some of the owners came to the property assessment review panel to get reductions in their assessments because of the impact of the construction and then the change in the impact of the hotel on their units.

I have been waiting for this development to move forward, though I doubt it will have anything like the Snug in the finished hotel.   The location is a very good one for a high quality hotel and should be beneficial to more and higher spending tourism in the region.   It also will pull more of the tourists out of the downtown core and move them to elsewhere in the region.

The old hotel was just a little too run down and tatty to really attract the sort of clientèle that is should have.  The parking sucked.

What Oak Bay  needs to consider doing now is looking at its waterfront and seeing how it can make better use of it.   The location is a resource that should be put to much better use for the whole region.   High end retail along Beach Ave.   Allowing properties to be redeveloped into higher density but offering better public access to the water and more walkable area would all go a long way to building decent connection to the water.

Ideally Oak Bay Avenue should continue is some real way all the way to Beach.    The continuation of the village all the way to the water would be helpful.

The hotel is a first step in making changes, the council should encourage the marina to develop their parking lot.

The waterfront and our disconnect from it in so many areas of Greater Victoria has been of concern to me.   We really need to encourage better access and development along the waterfront that can not be used for industrial purposes.   Oak Bay can and should take the lead on this.

Oak Bay Secondary Suites Report - "Lets think about it some more"

Corey Burger has posted the final report on Secondary Suites by the Oak Bay committee on the issue.   The upshot of it is the following:

The Committee is of the view that Council should continue to review the issue of legalizing secondary suites. While only a slight majority of surveyed residents favour such a move, it appears that others may support suites if proper protections and restrictions are in place to deal with expected negative impacts.

The Committee feels that a more comprehensive and informed public discussion led by Council could allow a consensus to emerge. Oak Bay currently has many hundreds of secondary suites scattered throughout the community. Ways must be found to deal with these existing suites and the potential for new suites in renovated or newly constructed homes.

Talk about waffle.

The reality is that Oak Bay is dealing the existing situation in such a way as to defacto grant secondary suites by refusing to enforce the bylaw that does not allow them.   Oak Bay has access to the information that will show them where all the secondary suites are through the BC Assessment records on the houses.   They have access but they refuse to act.

The problem with this is that they cause law abiding people to act outside of the law.  It is bad to have a law on the books and not enforce.   Widespread breaking of a bylaw is corrosive to civil society.   It also causes stress to people who rent out such a suite and have trouble dealing with breaking a bylaw.   It causes resentment in the minds of people that do no break the bylaw.

The biggest problem is that is allows for sub standard housing and no recourse to protection for the renter.   If you are renting in illegal suite that is not up to code, you can be evicted immediately with no protection of any sort.

Oak Bay has to make the suites legal through a registry and then require all of them to be up to code.  It then needs to seek out all the suites that do not register and impose a large enough fine to scare the crap out of anyone that is renting out an illegal suite, plus require the landlord of that illegal suite to provide six months free accommodation to the tenant in a legal dwelling.

I have never heard a good reason for having a ban on secondary suites.   All local governments should allow secondary suites unless there is a very compelling reason not to - I can not think of any compelling reason.

This committee report simply highlights how Oak Bay continues to be the CRD's brownest community and the local government least willing to address climate change, affordable housing, and livable communities.   Oak Bay also carries none of the regional weight on industrial lands and offers virtually no commercial space. They do not even have a single gas station.   They simply have never pulled their weight and based on this report are still unwilling to act in a responsible manner and acknowledge that there is a world beyond the tweed curtain.