This time around the election in Oak Bay is going to see significant changes to council. There will be a new mayor and probably three new councilors.
The council race:
I am 99% sure that Pam Copley, John Herbert and Tara Ney will be re-elected.
I am 100% certain Gregory Hartnell will not get elected and he will finish in last place.
This leaves us with seven more candidates
Corey Burger - a young green oriented candidate. He came a distant 9th in 2008 and I give him low odds of getting elected this time, I think 9th, maybe 8th for him
Susan Woods - Susan is a friend. She is a passionate woman that believes this region can be great. She ran in Victoria in 2008 and the 2010 by-election. If she lived in Oak Bay I would give her decent odds of getting elected, but Oak Bay, like Esquimalt, are not friendly places for candidates that are not resident in the municipality. Her home is right on the border with Oak Bay. I think she will finish between 7th and 9th.
Colleen Kirkpatrick - I can get very little sense of why she is running or how hard she is running. She is new resident to Oak Bay, that does matter to some long time residents. 6th to 8th is where I see her, but that is more dead reckoning that anything.
Bill Carver - I know nothing about him, I see him coming between 7th and 9th without knowing anything more.
Carine Green - she has been a North Saanich councilor till now but has recently moved to Oak Bay. I am not certain how strong her Oak Bay connections are. I see her finishing 4th to 7th.
Michelle Kirby - she ran in 2008 and did respectably well. She comes from the NDP side of the spectrum and is formally endorsed by the VLC. I understand she has a strong campaign team. She could surprise everyone and top the polls. I see her finishing between 1st and 4th.
I see being on council a very good experience for her and from what I know of her I suspect she will quickly learn how to be a good councilor.
Kevin Murdock - He has the pedigree and connections, I see him getting elected in the middle of the pack.
Mayor Race - Hazel Braithwaite versus Nils Jensen:
Two sitting councilors are running, I honestly can not tell who is more likely to win. I do not think that Oak Bay would be badly served by either one of them.
I know very little first hand about Hazel Braithwaite so I really can not say much about here. I have heard the classic sort of Victoria gossip about her good and bad.
Nils Jensen is someone that has impressed me over the years as very thoughtful. Everything I know about him says he is not doctrinaire and has a very open mind. what I know of him is that doing the right thing is much more important than doing the popular thing.