Looking at the last winner and first loser in Saanich, Victoria and Langford from the 1990s to 2018

On Vibrant Victoria Rob Randall took an interesting look at what it takes to win the 8th seat for Victoria council.  I thought I would look at this in some more detail to see what patterns might emerge

Saanich
Election     8th place            9th place               Margin 
1993     Judy Brownoff   4,850  Leif Wergelund     4,750    100
1996     John Garrison   6,935  Irene Block        6,719    216
1999     John Garrison   8,261  Joan Barton        7,363    898
2002     Nicola Wade     7,546  John Garrison      6,354  1,192
2005     Vicki Sanders   6,805  Ian Graeme         6,444    361
2008     Paul Gerrard    8,474  Rob Wickson        6,970  1,504
2011     Nicola Wade     9,437  Rob Wickson        7,801  1,636
2014     Leif Wergelund 12,107  Rebecca Mersereau 12,077     30
2018     Karen Harper   11,713  Kathleen Burton   11,289    424
Two 9th place finishers were later elected and one incumbent came in 9th.

Langford
Election     6th place            7th place            Margin
1996     John Goudy       562   Dave Dalby        507     45    
1999     Heather Ashton 1,242   John Crook      1,171     71
2002     Matt Sahlstrom 1,930   John Crook      1,885     45
2005     Matt Sahlstrom 1,730   Ian Mckenzie    1,561    169
2008     Matt Sahlstrom 1,859   Steve Hurdle    1,419    440
2011     Roger Wade     1,640   Grant McLachlan 1,219    421
2014     Matt Sahlstrom 2,174   Jim Munro       1,328    846
2018     Roger Wade     2,948   Wendy Hobbs     2,712    236
Interesting in Langford that no 7th place finisher was either an incumbent or someone who later won an election.   For the last six elections, only two different guys have finished in 6th

Victoria
Election     8th place             9th place               Margin
1990    Alastair Craighead 4,814  Howard Markson  4,517     297
1993    Jane Lunt          3,124  Bis Whitby      2,956     168
1996    Jane Lunt          3,662  Gene Miller     3,146     561
1999    Jane Lunt          4,809  Chris Coleman   4,736      73
2002    Bea Holland        6,090  David McLean    6,010      80
2005    Bea Holland        5,193  Chantal Brodeur 5,152      41
2008    John Luton         6,002  Rob Randall     3,737   2,265
2011    Chris Coleman      6,793  John Luton      6,343     350
2014    Chris Coleman      8,017  Erik Kaye       7,295     722
2018    Marianne Alto     10,245  Stephen Andrew  9,098   1,147
Chris Coleman and Jane Lunt are on this list three times.   Bea Holland and John Luton were on twice.  From 1993 to 2014 one of these four was always the 8th place finisher

2018 SD#64 Gulf Islands School District Election Results

Salt Spring Island - 3 Trustees to be elected

• Tisha Boulter acclaimed
• Stefanie Denz acclaimed
• Robert Pingle acclaimed incumbent

Mayne Island -  1 Trustee to be elected

• Janelle Lawson acclaimed

Pender Islands - 1 Trustee to be elected

• Gregory Lucas acclaimed

Galiano Island - 1 Trustee to be elected

• Shelley Lawson 429 incumbent
• Deblekha Guin  338

Saturna Island - 1 Trustee to be elected

• Chaya Katrensky acclaimed

2018 Islands Trust Election Results for Trustees within the CRD

These are only the results for trustees elected from within the CRD

Salt Spring Island - 2 Trustees to be elected

1. Laura Patrick    2,324
2. Peter Grove      1,937 incumbent
3. Kylie Coates       717
4. Darryl Martin      705
5. Howard Holzapfel   536
6. Sabrina Ali        398

Galiano - 2 Trustees to be elected

1. Jane Wolverton     526
2. Tahirih Rockafella 468
3. George Harris      363 incumbent
4. Michael Sharp      229

Mayne - 2 Trustees to be elected

1. Jeanine Dodds      420 incumbent
2. David Maude        268  
3. Brian Crumblehulme 266 incumbent
4. Christie Meers      99

South Pender - 2 Trustees to be elected

1. Steve Wright       111
2. Cameron Thorn       98
3. Richard Friesen     67

North Pender - 2 Trustees to be elected

• Benjamin McConchie acclaimed
• Deb Morrison acclaimed

Saturna - 2 Trustees to be elected

• Paul Brent incumbent acclaimed
• Lee Middleton incumbent acclaimed

2014 CRD Electoral Areas Election Results

(numbers in brackets are changes from 2011 election)
Juan de Fuca Electoral Area
Mike Hick incumbent acclaimed

Salt Spring Island Electoral Area
Total votes 2,477 (-951)

1. Wayne McIntyre 1,923 (+594) incumbent
2. Garth Hendren    554 (+171)

Southern Gulf Islands Electoral Area
Total votes 2,857

1. David Howe     1,988 incumbent elected by acclamation in 2011
2. Stephen Cooper   869

Past Election Results
2018 2011 2008 2005 2002

2014 SD #93 Conseil Scolaire Francophone Election Results for the Vancouver Island South Ward

One trustee is elected to the Francophone School Authority from Southern Vancouver Island

1. Marc-Andre Ouellette 69
2. Marie-Nicole Dubois  61

2018 SD #93 Conseil Scolaire Francophone Election Results for the Vancouver Island South Ward

1 Trustee to be elected

1. Marie-Pierre Lavoie    120
2. Marc-Andre Ouellette    70 (+1) incumbent
3. Pierre-Paul Angelblazer 17

2018 SD#63 Saanich School District Election Results

Central Saanich - 2 Trustees to be elected

1. Tim Dunford 2,861
2. Alicia Holman 2,551
3. Megan Desroches 2,399

Saanich - 2 Trustees to be elected - both elected by acclamation
Victoria Martin - incumbent
Teri Vanwell

North Saanich - 2 Trustees to be elected - both elected by acclamation
Elise McMurphy - incumbent
Sheila Stelck

Sidney - 1 Trustee to be elected - elected by acclamation
Nola Silzer

Past Election Results
2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 - I do not have the 2008 or 2005 results, if you know them please let me know

2018 SD #62 Sooke School District Election Results

(numbers in brackets are changes from the 2014 election)

Belmont Zone - 4 Trustees to be elected

1. Ravi Parmar        5,760 (+2,092) incumbent
2. Bob Beckett        4,920
3. Diana Seaton       4,690 (+1,622) incumbent
4. Wendy Hobbs        4,669 (+834) incumbent
5. Turdy Spiller      4,068 (+1,867)
6. Russ Chipps        2,909
7. Blair Sloane       1,848

Milnes Landing Zone - 3 Trustees to be elected

1. Allison Watson     2,380
2. Margot Swinburnson 2,374 (+103)incumbent
3. Bob Phillips       2,282 (+469) incumbent
4. Neil Poirier       2,088 (+340) incumbent
5. Britt Santowski    1,509

Past Election Results

2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996  I do not have the 2008 or 2005 results, I would love to have them

SD #61 Greater Victoria School District Election Results

(numbers in brackets are changes from the 2014 election)

Trustees - 9 to be elected

1. Ann Whiteaker   23,250 (+2,998) incumbent
2. Diane McNally   22,790 (+2,733) incumbent
3. Elaine Leonard  22,676 (+4,821) incumbent
4. Nicole Duncan   21,728 (+7,481)
5. Jordan Waters   20,315 (+3,477) incumbent
6. Rob Paynter     20,103 (+1,177) incumbent
7. Tom Ferris      19,887 (+2,947) incumbent
8. Ryan Painter    18,678 
9. Angie Hentze    16,661
10. Aidan Elkin     16,021
11. Vincent Gornall 14,167
12. Zul Rajabali     9,730

Past Election Results
2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

2018 CRD Electoral Area Municipal Election Results

(numbers in brackets are changes from 2014 election)
Juan de Fuca Electoral Area
Total votes 1,033 

1. Mike Hicks       849 incumbent who was acclaimed in 2014
2. Daniel Yates     184

Saltspring Electoral Area
Total votes 3,465 (+988)

1. Gary Holman    2,307
2. Robin Williams 1,158

Southern Gulf Islands Electoral Area
Total votes 2,298 (-559)

1. David Howe     1,223 (-765) incumbent
2. Ken Hancock    1,075

Past Election Results

2014 2011 2008 2005 2002

2018 View Royal Municipal Election Results

(the numbers in brackets are changes from the 2014 election)
2,244 voted out of 7,637 29.38% 

Mayor
David Screech was acclaimed as mayor

Council - 4 to be elected

1. Damian Kowalewich 1,581 incumbent, won 2017 by-election
2. John Rogers       1,464 (-35) incumbent
3. Ron Mattson       1,409 (-8) incumbent
4. Gery Lemon        1,307
5. Adam Flint        1,120 ran in the 2017 by-election
6. Nathan Daisley      990 ran in the 2017 by-election

Past Election Results
2017 by 2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 1990

2018 City of Victoria Municipal Election Results

(numbers in brackets are changes from 2014 election)
29,707 (+5,042) voted of 68,297 (+5,213) 43.50% (4.40 pp)

Mayor

1. Lisa Helps            12,642 (+3,442) incumbent
2. Stephen Hammond        8,717 NewCouncil.ca
3. Mike Geoghegan         4,335
4. Bruce McGuigan         2,377
5. Rob Duncan               527 (+274) ran in 2014 as Changes the Clown
6. Alexander Schmid         231
7. Saul Andersen            219 ran for council in 2014
8. Krzysztof Zmuda          148
9. David Johnston           119
10. RyMo(Ryan Moen)           71 ran for council in 2014

Council - 8 to be elected

1. Ben Isitt             14,205 (-524) incumbent
2. Jeremy Loveday        13,239 (+2,387) incumbent
3. Laurel Collins        12,842 Together Victoria
4. Geoff Young           12,184 (+2,250) incumbent
5. Sarah Potts           11,977 Together Victoria
6. Charlayne Thorton-Joe 10,678 (-1,368) incumbent
7. Sharmarke Dubow       10,590 Together Victoria
8. Marianne Alto         10,245 (-1,771) incumbent
9. Stephen Andrew         9,098 NewCouncil.ca ran for mayor in 2014
10. Pam Madoff             9,067 (-1,287) incumbent
11. Grace Lore             8,765
12. Andrew Reeve           8,246 (+3,910) NewCouncil.ca
13. Randie Johal           7,748 NewCouncil.ca
14. Gary Alberts           7,503 NewCouncil.ca
15. Marg Gardiner          7,041
16. Anna King              5,454
17. Rose Henry             4,076
18. Jordan Reichert        3,491
19. Darlene Archibald      3,083
20. Sean Leitenberg        3,059
21. Edison Kahakauwila     1,956
22. Ted Smith              1,898
23. Steve Filipovic        1,595 (-2,261)
24. Riga Godron            1,567 ran for mayor in 2014
25. Doug Stewart           1,394
26. James Harasymow        1,362 (+598)
27. Jesse Jimenez          1,028
28. William Tate             758
29. Delmar Martay            238

Total votes for council 184,387 which is an average of 6.21 votes per voter

CRD Director - 3 to be elected

1. Ben Isitt            11,148 (-659) incumbent
2. Jeremy Loveday        9,221 (+2,75)
3. Geoff Young           9,112 (+2,049) incumbent
4. Laurel Collins        8,761 Together Victoria
5. Marianne Alto         7,261 (-1,680) incumbent
6. Gary Alberts          5,607 (+3,382) NewCouncil.ca
7. Andrew Reeve          5,415 NewCouncil.ca
8. Marg Gardiner         4,402
9. Rose Henry            2,325
10. Jordan Reichart       1,478
11. Sean Leitenbert       1,292
12. Edison Kahakauwila      976
13. Steve Filipovic         855
14. Riga Godron             689
15. James Harasymow         598 (+282)
16. Jesse Jimenez           585
17. William Tate            405

Total votes 70,130 which is an average of 2.36 votes per voter

Past Election Results
2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 1990

Referendum
Do you approve of spending $250,000 for a citizens assembly to research amalgamation with Saanich?

1. Yes 18,343
2. No   9,253

2018 Sooke Municipal Election Results

(numbers in brackets are changes from 2014 election)
4,078 (+197) voted of 9,862 (+508)  41.35% (-0.14 pp)

Mayor

1. Maja Tait        2,299 (-228) incumbent
2. Kevin Pearson    1,623 sitting councillor
3. Mick Rhodes        135

Council - 6 to be elected

1. Brenda Parkinson 2,250 (+216) incumbent
2. Megan McMath     2,184
3. Ebony Logins     2,157 (+41) incumbent
4. Jeff Bateman     1,785 (+2)
5. Tony St-Pierre   1,579
6. Al Beddows       1,552
7. Jeff Stewart     1,536
8. Rick Kasper      1,358 (-489) incumbent
9. Herb Haldane     1,217 ran for mayor in 2014
10. Rick Armour      1,070
11. Doni Eve         1,047
12. Phil N Rossner     884
13. Peter Jonassen     747

Past Election Results
2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999

2018 Sidney Municipal Election Results

(numbers in brackets are changes from 2014 election)
4,691(+780) voted out of 9,183 (+83) 51.08% (+9.10 pp)

Mayor

1. Cliff McNeil-Smith 3,740 (+2,560)
2. Steve Price          929 (-383) incumbent

Council - 6 to be elected

1. Barbara Fallot    3,341 (+1,256) incumbent
2. Peter Wainwright  3,144 (+1,098) incumbent
3. Terri O'Keeffe    3,088
4. Sara Duncan       3,072
5. Chad Rintoul      2,794
6. Scott Garnett     2,378
7. Melissa Hailey    1,615 (+237)
8. Cam McLennan      1,394 (-149) incumbent
9. Jordan Templeman  1,270
10. Stephen Weller    1,108
11. Greg Lynn           844

Past Election Results
2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999

2018 Oak Bay Municipal Election Results

(numbers in brackets are changes from 2014)
7,232(+1,174) voted of 13,499(-608*) 53.57%(+10.63 pp)

Mayor

1. Kevin Murdoch     5,042 sitting councillor
2. Nils Jensen       2,138 (-1,502) incumbent

Council - 6 to elected

1. Hazel Braithwaite 5,149 (+1,603)incumbent
2. Tara Ney          4,001 (+590) incumbent
3. Carine Green      3,871 ran for mayor in 2014
4. Eric Zhelka       3,754 (+1,1170) incumbent
5. Andrew Appleton   3,707
6. Esther Paterson   3,688
7. Andrew Stinson    3,290 (+1,237)
8. Isabella Lee      2,467
9. Anton Brakage       746
10. Ronald Telfer       563

Past Election Results
2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

* I have no idea why the number of eligible voters dropped

2018 North Saanich Municipal Election Results

(numbers in brackets are changes from 2014 election)
4,008 (-804) voted of 9,214 (+159)  43.50% (-9.64 pp)

Mayor

1. Geoff Orr          2,592 sitting councillor
2. Dorothy Hartshorne 1,415 (-843)

Council - 6 to elected - all acclaimed
Joscelyn Barnard
Heather Gartshore   incumbent
Jack McClintock     incumbent
Brett Smyth 
Celia Stock         incumbent
Murray Weisenberger incumbent

Past Election Results
2014 2011 2010 by 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

2018 Metchosin Municipal Election Results

(numbers in brackets reflect changes from 2014 election)
1,619 (+35) voted out of 3,713 (-574*) 43.60% (+6.65 pp)

Mayor
John Ranns re-elected by acclamation

Council - 4 to be elected

1. Andy MacKinnon    1,109 (+41) incumbent
2. Sharie Epp          895
3. Kyara Kahakauwila   820 (-8) incumbent
4. Marie-Terese Little 739
5. Brian Domney        717
6. Jenny Millar        514
7. Norm Hardy          477
8. Darren Brown        419

Past Election Results
2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999

* I have no idea why the number of eligible voters dropped

2018 Langford Municipal Election Results

(numbers in brackets are changes from 2014 election)
4,812 (+280) voted out of 26,018 (+2,154) 18.49% (-0.51 pp)

Mayor

1. Stew Young       3,939 (+212) incumbent
2. Robert Fraser      790

Council - 6 to elected

1. Lillian Szpak    3,466 (+706) incumbent
2. Denise Blackwell 3,369 (+829) incumbent
3. Norma Stewart    3,207
4. Lanny Seaton     3,121 (+738) incumbent
5. Matt Sahlstrom   3,073 (+899) incumbent
6. Roger Wade       2,948 (+712) incumbent
7. Wendy Hobbs      2,712

Past Election Results

2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

2018 Highlands Municipal Election results

Everyone was acclaimed, the same happened in 2011

Mayor 
Ken Williams incumbent

Council - 6 to elected
Leslie Anderson incumbent
Ann Baird incumbent
Gord Baird incumbent
Marcie McLean incumbent
Karel Roessingh incumbent
Rose Stanton

Past Election Results
2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

2018 Esquimalt Municipal Election Results

(numbers in brackets reflect changes from 2014)
4,143 (-264) voted out of 13,880 (-665*)  29.85% (-0.45 pp)

Mayor

1. Barb Desjardins      2,919 (-261) incumbent
2. John Roe             1,128

Council - 6 to elected

1. Tim Morrison         2,705 (+155)incumbent
2. Jacob Helliwell      2,575
3. Meagan Brame         2,556 (+21) incumbent
4. Lynda Hundleby       2,518 (+173) incumbent
5. Jane Vermeulen       2,422
6. Ken Armour           2,176
7. Chris Munkacsi       1,605
8. Veronica Greer       1,457
9. Stephane Vaudandaine 1,264
10. Andrew Hrushowy        580

Past Election Results

2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

* I have no idea why the number of eligible voters dropped so much

2018 Colwood Municipal Election Results

(numbers in brackets are changes from 2014)
4,089 (+1,149) voted out of 12,931* (+1,395) 31.62% (+6.13 pp)

Mayor

1. Rob Martin        2,348 sitting councillor
2. Carol Hamilton    1,694 (-674) incumbent

Council - 6 to elected

1. Doug Kobayashi    2,703
2. Dean Jantzen      2,646
3. Cynthia Day       1,928 (+47) incumbent
4. Michael Baxter    1,875
5. Gordie Logan      1,775 (-71) incumbent
6. Stewart Parkinson 1,767
7. Aaron Weisgerber  1,638 was a View Royal councillor
8. Eve Millington    1,520
9. Misty Olsen       1,442
10. Jason Nault       1,438 (-270) incumbent
11. Scott McDonald    1,002

Past Election Results

2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

* The 12,931 electors number does not reflect any new registrations on election day

2018 Central Saanich Election Results

(numbers in brackets are changes from 2014)
5,059 (-78) voted out of 15,340 (+1,098) 32.98% (-3.09 pp)

Mayor
Ryan Windsor re-elected by acclamation

Council - 6 to the elected

1. Naill Paltiel   3,697 (+529) incumbent
2. Zeb King        3,306 (+288) incumbent
3. Chris Graham    3,052 (+232) incumbent
4. Bob Thompson    2,976 (+328) incumbent
5. Carl Jensen     2,939 (+119) incumbent
6. Gord Newton     2,855
7. Kathryn Parfitt 2,423
8. Joshua Steeper  2,124
9. Tayler Ruygrok   2,024

Past Election Results
2014 2013 by 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

2018 Saanich Municipal Election Results

(numbers in brackets are changes from 2014)
32,538 (+4,021) voted of an est 85,004 (+4,018) 38.28% (+3.07 pp) turnout

Mayor

1. Fred Haynes           15,312 Sitting councillor 
2. Richard Atwell        10,786 (-3,410) Incumbent 
3. Rob Wickson            5,546
4. David Shebib             324 (-158)

Council - 8 to be elected

1. Rebecca Mersereau     18,416 (+6,069) ran in 2017 by-election
2. Colin Plant           17,749 (+2,971) incumbent
3. Ned Taylor            16,047 ran in 2017 by-election
4. Susan Brice           15,981 (+1,709) incumbent
5. Zac De Vries          13,631
6. Judy Brownoff         13,594 (+432) incumbent
7. Nathalie Chambers     13,080 ran in 2017 by-election
8. Karen Harper          11,713 incumbent won 2017 by-election
9. Kathleen Burton       11,289
10. Shawn Newby           11,010 (-157) ran in 2017 by-election
11. Rishi Sharma          10,127
12. Ian Jessop             9,606
13. Teale Phelps Bondaroff 9,043
14. Cory Montgomery        8,695
15. Trevor Barry           5,541
16. Benjamin Allan         5,209
17. Art Pollard            3,675 ran in 2017 by-election
18. Vernon Lord            3,300

Mayor Richard Atwell, Karen Harper, Kathleen Burton, Ian Jessop and Cory Montgomery ran as United for Saanich

CRD Director - 4 to be elected

1. Rebecca Mersereau 15,329
2. Colin Plant       15,316 (+5,897) incumbent 
3. Susan Brice       14,633 (+3,837) incumbent
4. Ned Taylor        11,925
5. Judy Brownoff     11,484 (+2,991) incumbent
6. Rishi Sharma       7,271
7. Shawn Newby        7,254
8. Ian Jessop         6,967
9. Corry Montgomery   5,978
10. Art Pollard        2,695

Referendum on spending $250,000 investigating amalgamation with the City of Victoria 

Yes 16,852
No  13,274

Past Election Results 
2017 by 2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 

Trevor Barry Surprised Me - I am voting for him for Saanich Council

I have to admit when I saw Trevor Barry at the first All Candidates Meeting in Gordon Head, I thought he was not taking the process seriously and was only running as sort of a statement. I basically dismissed him as a serious candidate.  It turns out that I completely misread him.  This is a candidate that we should put on council.

At the all candidates meetings you only get to hear a few minutes from each candidate, so it took me a number of them to see that Trevor comes up with smart, innovative and unique solutions very quickly.  I can see that he is someone different from anyone that has been on Saanich council in the past (or at least as far back I can remember which is about 35 years.)

I had a chance to have a coffee with Trevor one evening this week and I have become a convert and a strong supporter.

Here is why you should consider Trevor Barry for Saanich council:

• He has the sort of mind that looks for new solutions; he is not wedded to the status quo
• He is very knowledgeable about infrastructure and planning -- and a very fast learner
• He contributes smart, useful ideas and has a record of delivering (I found about this from my partner who sat on a committee with him re safe bicycle commuting)
• He is positive and an optimist --  but also realistic
• He is running because he believes he can offer something to better our community through the council table
• He is willing to take risks
• He walks to a different drum saxophone and has a song in his heart

While I would be thrilled to see Trevor elected on October 20, I am realistic about his chances: he entered the race late and has flown a bit too far under the radar to have strong hope of winning.
However, I believe that we should support him in this election and see if we can make it happen.
If Trevor doesn't win a seat this time around, my hope is that he will run and win a seat in the next election in 2022 because his creative mind and energy would be a huge boost for Saanich.

I support Trevor Barry for Saanich Council.

Saanich needs Susan Brice to be re-elected

There are a host of reasons why I support Susan Brice but today I only want to focus on one of them: her understanding of good governance.

In local government, Susan has been a school district trustee, school board chair, Oak Bay councillor and then mayor, MLA and cabinet minister and is now a Saanich councillor and CRD director.

She has also been the chair of the Greater Victoria Transit Commission, deputy chair of the BC Police Commission, and a director at the Victoria Airport Authority.

The reason for Susan's success in all these roles is that she understands the process of governance very well.   Few people have had a leadership role in so many different governance situations as she has had. In fact, I can not think of another person in this region that has the breadth and depth of governance knowledge and experience that Susan has.

Saanich needs one experienced member of council that understands how good governance works and can exemplify show a positive way to work together to achieve the best for Saanich.  From this election, Saanich will have at least four new councillors that will greatly benefit from having Susan being at the table to learn how to govern.  Without someone with Susan's experience, the next council risks being much less capable, making needless mistakes and thus being less effective and efficient than its potential.

I ask you to cast one of your votes in Saanich for Susan Brice.

Quickly, other reasons I support Susan:

• She is kind and non-judgemental;
• She is firm in her beliefs but does not push them on others;
• She is a cheerful and approachable person;
• She has a passion for a better world;
• Her own ego is much less important to her than actually getting things done well;
• She will happily mentor other elected officials even if they do not agree with her politically.