Final election results for Victoria area ridings

These are the final results

Riding               Liberals  NDP Greens Others total vote
Oak Bay-Gordon Head      7767  7536 10722   492   26517
Saanich North + Islands 10284 10407 10054   598   31343
Victoria-Beacon Hill     4378 12560  8747   130   25815
Saanich South            9256 11946  4011  1015   26228
Victoria-Swan Lake       5055 12350  5260     0   22665
Esquimalt-Royal Roads    6511 10963  4928   343   22745
Juan de Fuca             7044 12244  3646     0   22934
Total                   50295 78006 47368  1488  178247

Comparing the results riding by riding:

Oak Bay Gordon Head
Election   Liberals  NDP   Greens Others total vote
2009      11,877   11,316   2,330    0    25,523
2013       7,767    7,536  10,722  492    26,517
Change    -4,110   -3,780  +8,392 +492      +994

Saanich North and the Islands
Election   Liberals  NDP   Greens Others total vote
2009      13,120   12,875   3,220    0    29,215
2013      10,284   10,407  10,054  598    31,343
Change    -2,836   -2,468  +6,834 +598    +2,128

Victoria Beacon Hill
Election   Liberals  NDP   Greens Others total vote
2009        6,375  13,400   4,106  319    24,200
2013        4,378  12,560   8,747  130    25,815
Change     -1,997    -840  +4,641 -189    +1,615

Saanich South
Election   Liberals  NDP   Greens Others total vote
2009       11,215  11,697   1,664  235    24,811
2013        9,256  11,946   4,011 1015    26,228
Change     -1,959    +249  +2,347 +780    +1,417

Victoria Swan Lake

Election   Liberals  NDP   Greens Others total vote
2009        5,754  13,119   2,628  174    21,675
2013        5,055  12,350   5,360    0    22,665
Change       -699    -769  +2,732 -174      +990

Esquimalt Royal Roads
Election   Liberals  NDP   Greens Others total vote
2009        6,579  11,514   3,664    0    21,757
2013        6,511  10,963   4,928  343    22,745
Change        -68    -511  +1,264 +343      +988

Juan de Fuca
Election   Liberals  NDP   Greens Others total vote
2009        6,866  11,520   1,749    0    20,135
2013        7,044  12,244   3,646    0    22,934
Change       +178    +724  +1,897    0    +2,799

The Liberals lost two seats, one to the NDP and one to the Greens.

What I find interesting in these results is that while the Greens gained a lot of support the NDP was clearly not the majority of this new support.  

Only two NDP MLAs saw their vote increase, John Horgan and Lana Popham though the losses for the other three was not dramatic.   Victoria Swan Lake and Esquimalt Royal Roads were the two ridings in which the NDP vote dropped more than the Liberal vote.

The Green vote more than doubled in five of the seven ridings.   Only in Juan de Fuca was the Green vote increase less than the increase in total voters.   The Greens not only won one seat, but came second in two.   In all of BC in the election 2009 no Green did better than third and in 2005 a single Green managed to come second.

In five of seven seats the Greens managed to get more than 20% of the vote.   Only 16 BC Green candidates have ever managed to get over 20% of the vote in eight elections.   Three of the Greens in the CRD managed over 33% of the vote, never before has any BC Green managed more than 27.01%

New Political Party for Vancouver Island

This is the logo at the moment

The Vancouver Island Party is in the process of being formed.   Their goal is to run candidates in all 14 island ridings in the May 2013 election.

They are not yet registered with Elections BC.

As of this point there is nothing on their website saying what their direction is our what their platform is.   I heard about the party from Canada Action Party leader Christopher Porter, he is involved, but what his role is I do not know at the moment.

If you are going to be the Vancouver Island Party
why not use the Vancouver Island flag?
Which you can buy at Vancouver Island Flags
at 822 Fort Street

Will they be a serious party seeking autonomy or provincial status for the island?   Will they be left or right?  Will they be philosophically close to the Canadian Action Party?

May 12th Election Results in Greater Victoria

Turn out percentages are based on registered voters on April 21st, that number rose towards election day so the actual turn out percentage will be lower.

Esquimalt Royal Roads

• Maurine Karagianis NDP - 10705 - 53.07%
• Carl Ratsoy Liberal - 6098 - 30.23%
• Jane Sterk Green - 3370 - 16.71%
• Turnout 22605 - 54.62%

Juan de Fuca

• John Horgan NDP - 11008 - 57.10%
• Jody Twa Liberal - 6624 - 34.36%
• James Powell - Green - 1645 - 8.53%
• Turnout 19277 - 58.30%

Oak Bay Gordon Head

• Ida Chong Liberal - 11266 - 46.64%
• Jessica Van der Veen NDP 10736 - 44.45%
• Steven Johns Green - 2152 - 8.91%
• Turnout 24154 - 62.96%

Saanich North and the Islands

• Murray Coell Liberal - 12513 - 45.26%
• Gary Holman NDP - 12118 - 43.83%
• Tom Bradfield Green - 3016 - 10.91%
• Turnout 27647 - 63.34%

Saanich South

• Lana Popham NDP - 11141 - 47.11%
• Robin Adair Liberal - 10728 - 45.37%
• Brian Gordon Green - 1551 - 6.56%
• Doug Christie WCC - 228 - 0.96%
• Turnout 23648 - 63.84%

Victoria Beacon Hill - 176 of 183 polls counted

• Carole James NDP - 12591 - 55.59%
• Dallas Henault Liberal - 5998 - 26.48%
• Adam Saab Green - 3768 - 16.64%
• Saul Andersen Ind - 291 - 1.28%
• Turnout estimate 22700 - 54%

Victoria Swan Lake

• Rob Fleming NDP - 12389 - 60.53%
• Jesse McClinton Liberal - 5456 - 26.66%
• David Wright Green - 2459 - 12.01%
• Bob Savage Refed - 163 - 0.80%
• Turnout 20467 - 54.03%

BC STV - a website where you try it out

I urge you to get better informed about BC STV and to let your friends and relatives know. First past the post is a relic from ancient times that has been abandoned in most of the democratic world because it is unfair and does not work well. BC STV is a voting system that will offer us:

1. An end to strategic voting - you can not strategically vote in STV, you will never have to hold your nose in BC STV and chose the lesser of two evils.
2. More choice - you will be able to chose who you like from the party you support.
3. A fairer representation of public will - every MLA will have a positive personal mandate from the public and there will be more diversity in who is elected.
4. There will no longer be any safe seats for parties, all 85 seats will be under competition with BC STV
5. More responsive politicians - politicians that listen and act on local needs and concerns do well in STV

There are more benefits that come from BC STV, but that is enough for the moment.

Please take time to check out this website and try voting with BC STV.

Saanich South - the only race in our region in the provincial election

Saanich South is the only riding in this region where the result on May 12th is in doubt.
This riding has been a close one in most elections for the last generation.

In 2005 this riding was narrowly won by David Cubberly of the NDP, in 2001 Susan Brice won it for the BC Liberals. In the 1996 election Andrew Petter retained it for the NDP by a slim 627 votes over Frank Leonard.

The riding has been changed from last time and the changes are enough to move the 2005 results from an NDP win to a Liberal win. The Tillicum Gorge area is no longer part of the riding and this area is strongly NDP, I should know this as I live in the area.

The Liberals have Robin Adair running for them. He is well known in the business community through his work with the Chamber of Commerce. He is better known among people aged 40 and older as being a respected local news anchor. Robin will carry a lot of political weight in caucus and see him in cabinet before the end of the first term of government. The rumour last year was he that was going to run for mayor of Victoria.

The NDP have local winemaker Lana Popham running for them. Lana is getting well known for her passion for the local community, the environment and local agriculture. She was an inspired choice for the NDP, she is a breath of fresh air that the party needs if it is to really revive itself. I think she should have run for Saanich council as I think she could have done a lot more there and worked towards being mayor. The mayor of Saanich has more real power over issues than a member of the opposition.

Brian Gordon is running for the Greens - well running is a stretch. He seems to be a paper candidate for the party. I have see no evidence of his campaign. Maybe the goal is not to harm Lana Popham's chances?

Doug Christie is on the ballot again for the Western Canada Concept.

Both Robin and Lana are getting local media coverage. Robin had to field some questions about his role with the job placement program and I think handled it well.

Both campaigns are getting to the doors and getting their signs up, though the NDP seem to have the edge on real signs, the ones on private lawns.

How would I call this riding? At this point I see it finishing as follows:

• Robin Adair - 13150
• Lana Popham - 12500
• Brian Gordon - 1800
• Doug Christie - 200

I will post any campaign press releases or such if I get them in my inbox

This is from the Rob Fleming campaign:

ROB FLEMING CAMPAIGN IS FACING A NEW OPPONENT IN VICTORIA-SWAN LAKE

Hi friends,

I just wanted to let you in on an interesting development in this constituency.

The Liberal candidate has disappeared from the campaign, and has been replaced by none other than Gordon Campbell.

After some poor media coverage, the Liberal's "hand-picked" candidate for Victoria-Swan Lake has gone into hiding or has been gagged by the BC Liberals.

Instead, Gordon Campbell has been seen in the region recently, doing the campaigning for him. The corporate-funded Liberal machine is also pumping high-priced tv ads into local televisions.

And who do the local ads profile? Gordon Campbell, not the local candidate.

More than ever, our campaign needs to work hard to ensure Rob Fleming gets re-elected.

I'm sure we're going to see Gordon Campbell back in the region, and I'm sure we're going to see many more slick and expensive Campbell ads on TV.

With less than two weeks left to go, any support you can offer will be greatly appreciated.

Whether it's 30 minutes or 3 hours volunteering, and whether it's five dollars or five hundred dollars, your help will be a major factor in helping get Rob back to the legislature - this time perhaps as a Minister.

Please see our contact info and a great list of fun events below, including a Debate Watching Party and Barbecue on Sunday. Hope to see you there.

Thanks,

Edward May

Campaign Manager

for the Rob Fleming Re-Election Campaign

• Leaders' Debate Watching Party and Barbecue. May 3 at 5pm
• Fired Up for the Final Five - An Evening with Joy MacPhail in Victoria. May 7 at 7pm
• Mainstreeting every Wednesday morning. Meet at the campaign office at 7:15am
• Door knocking blitz every Saturday afternoon. Meet at the campaign office at 2pm
• 
  

Authorized by Jamie Dopp, financial agent 250-598-1524

Phone number: 250-381-8883 | 735 Cloverdale Ave., Victoria, BC

First Ad in Favour of BC STV

Victoria Swan Lake

This is my own riding and it is currently held by New Democrat Rob Fleming. He will be easily re-elected by one of the largest margins of any New Democrat.

My Prediction of the Result:

• Rob Fleming 12 200
• Jesse McClinton - 7100
• David Wright - 3450
• Spoiled Ballots - 500
  
• Bob Savage - 230

The riding has been shifted to the north from the previous elections when the bulk of it was Victoria Hillside. The riding now takes in more of Saanich than Victoria with the new boundary being along Mackenzie from Cedar Hill to the Highway #17 and then taking in all of the Tillicum Gorge and Portage Inlet neighbourhoods.

Demographically the change is effectively a zero sum game with no one getting the advantage. Over the last four years there has been some change in the neighbourhoods. The Tllicum Gorge area has more home owners that are young professionals than in the past because it has been one of the few neighbourhoods that has been affordable for people getting into the market. Short term I do not think this will harm the NDP, but longer term this could signal a change in the area. It also means that new riding has more owners and fewer renters.

Rob Fleming has been one of the top ten NDP MLAs in this last term, but that is more because the NDP caucus was rather weak than Rob Fleming came out of the gate strongly. I expect him to grow into the role and over the next ten years become one of the strongest voices in the opposition. Should the NDP win government in a future election, I see him in cabinet. He may run for the leadership of the NDP once Carole James steps down, but I see a run this time only being a trial for a real run the next time the job opens up. He has time, he is only in his late 30s.

Jesse McClinton is running for the Liberals. He is young guy in a no hope riding for the governing party. He knows this is a chance for him and his team to learn campaigning skills. He has had a chance to learn how to deal with a bad media story - I think he handled the issue well given there was no 'winning' answer. Jesse McClinton is a name I expect to see on the ballot again soon, maybe for city council in 2011, or federally if there is an election sooner rather than later.

For the record, I am voting for him and I have sign up for him.

The Greens are running David Wright. He is an interesting candidate, I think he and I could talk about many things for hours and hours, but I do not see his campaign on the ground. I do not see him really trying to get elected. If he had knocked on my door, or called me, a couple of weeks ago, I might have been presuaded to back him. He is one of two Green candidates I know of in this region that have been involved Scouting, the other being Tom Bradfield in Saanich North and the Islands. The Scouting program and the values of the Greens have some strong overlaps.

There is one more candidate running, Bob Savage for the BC Refederation Party. This is a party of people that feel disempowered and have some suggested ways to things, the biggest being they want a BC constitution and seem to be unaware that we already have one.

Some resources for the campaign in this riding:

• Jonathon Aquino's site about this riding
• Election Prediction Page for Victoria Swan Lake
• Sacha Peter's information on Victoria Swan Lake
• Try BC STV poll for the Capital Region

Election Prediction for Greater Victoria Ridings

Esquimalt Royal Roads

• Marine Karagianis - NDP - 40%
• Jane Sterk - Green - 35%
• Carl Ratsoy - Liberal - 25%

Juan De Fuca

• John Horgan - NDP - 48%
• Jody Twa - Liberal - 41%
• James Powell - Green - 11%

Oak Bay Gordon Head

• Ida Chong - Liberal - 48%
• Jessica Van der Veen - NDP - 40%
• Steven Johns - Green - 12%

Saanich North and the Islands

• Murray Coell - Liberal - 45%
• Gary Holman - NDP - 33%
• Tom Bradfield - Green - 22%

Saanich South

• Robin Adair - Liberal - 47%
• Lana Popham - NDP - 44%
• Brian Gordon - Green - 8%
• Doug Christie - WCC - 1%

Victoria Beacon Hill

• Carole James - NDP - 41%
• Dallas Henault - Liberal - 33%
• Adam Saab - Green - 25%
• Saul Andersen - Ind - 1%

Victoria Swan Lake

• Rob Fleming - NDP - 53%
• Jesse McClinton - Liberal - 31%
• David Wright - Green - 15%
• Bob Savage - Refed - 1%

The net result is that the Liberals gain on seat in this region.

I believe that the only ridings where the result might be in question is in Saanich South and Esquimalt Roayl roads.

Lana Popham might pull off a win despite the party pulling her down, much will come down down to who is voting. Older voters remember Robin Adair as the news anchor locally and have a lot of trust in him. Lana has a very strong following from people that have met her over the last years in relation to your community activism.

Jane Sterk might pull off a surprise win in Esquimalt Royal Roads, but for me to think this is possible I would have to see a much stronger on the ground campaign from her, strength online, and a good preformance on TV.

I do not think that Jody Twa will be able to defeat John Horgan given incumbency and the hard work in the riding from John Horgan.

Saanich North and the Islands has been home of a strong core of a Green vote, but the party campaign in that riding this time is not strong enough to move the party up to second place, let alone win.

I think Carole James will survive the election because Adam Saab and Dallas Henault are both campaigning very hard and neither one will be the 'obvious' choice to vote for to defeat her. I do see a lot of people staying home and a strong shift of people to the Greens.

How the Provincial Candidates are doing on Facebook

Lana Popham has clearly done well this last week and almost doubled her supporters on facebook. He big rise masks the fact that Robin Adair did best among the Liberals in percentage terms.

We have three new entrants in facebook land.

I will be updating this next week.

Victoria Beacon Hill

* Carole James - 1914 +9.4%
* Dallas Henault - 491 +2.7%
* Adam Saab - 153 on fan page and 325 on facebook group +1.9%
* Bob Savage - still nothing online
* Saul Andersen - nothing

Victoria Swan Lake

* Rob Fleming - 522 +8.8%
* Jesse McClinton - 444 +6.5%
* David Wright - still nothing

Oak Bay Gordon Head

* Jessica Van Der Veen - 427 -1.8% in a facebook group 170 on the fan page
* Ida Chong - 142 +9.2%
* John Stevens - 20 - new facebook group

Saanich South

* Lana Popham - 313 +94.4%
* Robin Adair - 160 +19.4%
* Brian Gordon - 117 new fan page

Saanich North and the Islands

* Gary Holman - 42 new fan group
* Tom Bradfield - 30 + 272%
* Murray Coell - still nothing

Esquimalt Royal Roads

* Maurine Karajianis - 426 +1.9%
* Jane Sterk - 178 +36.9%
* Carl Ratsoy - still nothing

Juan de Fuca

* Jody Twa - 278 +0.4% in a facebook group
* John Horgan - 263 +0.4%
* James Powell - still nothing

The top ten in the region:

1. Carole James - 1914
2. Rob Fleming - 522
3. Dallas Henault - 491
4. Jesse McClinton - 417 (+2)
5. Jessica Van Der Veen - 427 (-1)
6. Maurine Karajianis - 426 (-1)
7. Adam Saab - 325
8. Lana Popham - 313 (+2)
9. Jody Twa - 278 (-1)
10. John Horgan - 263 (-1)

Observations on the Election

It is less than three weeks to election day and here are my observations on the election in this region.

There fewer signs on lawns this time around than normally. The NDP seems to be doing the best in getting signs on lawns, but even in my area they are down from last time.

Very few people are interested in the election. There should be more of buzz going on in the papers, on the streets and online. At Vibrant Victoria, a local place to discuss urban development and politics for this region, there is almost no discussion of the election. I ask people about the election and people tell me they are not interested.

I do not get the sense of any local campaign that is taking off and getting the volunteers needed to make a big difference in the outcome.

At this time, given the general disinterest of the public, I believe that no sitting incumbent in this region will lose. I also think that Robin Adair will beat Lana Popham in Saanich South because there is nothing out there to indicate that she has pulled ahead of him in the campaign.

Putting up a Jesse McClinton sign tonight

I remember the federal election and how long signs lasted in my neighbourhood, about two days. I am putting up a sign for Liberal candidate Jesse McClinton tonight, we will see how well it does.

The Provincial Election Online Campaign Locally

I thought I would take a look at how the local candidates are doing using the biggest social networking tool out there - Facebook - in their election campaigns. It is a free resource and should be a way for people to get in contact with thousands of people. One Liberal candidate, Donny van Dyk in Skeena, has 1325 supporters. Not bad for someone is a rural riding with a low population.

I will take a look at this again in a week or so.

Here is how the local candidates are doing, unless I note something different, these are fan page numbers:

Victoria Beacon Hill

• Carole James - 1752 She is the leader and should be doing much better than that
• Dallas Henault - 478
• Adam Saab - 153 on fan page and 319 on facebook group
  
• Bob Savage - nothing - BC Refed has no resources and does not seem to know how to use the internet.

Victoria Swan Lake

• Rob Fleming - 480 (my apologies to my MLA, I made a mistake earlier and thought he did not have a page, this is the edited version)
  
• Jesse McClinton - 417
• David Wright - nothing

Oak Bay Gordon Head

• Jessica Van Der Veen - 435 in a facebook group
• Ida Chong - 130
• John Stevens - nothing

Saanich South

• Lana Popham - 161
• Robin Adair - 134
• Brian Gordon - nothing

Saanich North and the Islands

• Tom Bradfield - 11
• Murray Coell - nothing
• Gary Holman - nothing

Esquimalt Royal Roads

• Maurine Karajianis - 418
• Jane Sterk - 130 This is really bad for the Greens, their leader should have at least 10 000 supporters online if they had any sense of how to use the internet to campaign
  
• Carl Ratsoy - nothing

Juan de Fuca

• Jody Twa - 277 in a facebook group
• John Horgan - 262
• James Powell - nothing

I am very surprised that the Greens are doing so badly with the online stuff, they should be working hard in that area because they are more popular with younger voters that are online.

Take Carole James out of the mix, I am also surprised that not a single candidate seems to have more supporters than many people have as friends on Facebook. Clearly they are not going out to get people to join their fan page or their facebook group.

No one seems to get the online campaigning world or take it seriously.

The top ten in the region:

1. Carole James - 1752
2. Rob Fleming - 480
3. Dallas Henault - 478
4. Jessica Van Der Veen - 435
5. Maurine Karajianis - 418
6. Jesse McClinton - 417
7. Adam Saab - 319
   
8. Jody Twa - 277
9. John Horgan - 262
10. Lana Popham - 161

You can see, in relative terms, the NDP is doing well. Jane Sterk does not even break the top ten. Two sitting MLAs do not make the list, Murray Coell and Ida Chong.

Looking at Victoria Beacon Hill

This is safe NDP ground. Carole James is the MLA and should have little trouble in getting re-elected. This is one of the seats the NDP almost won during the 2001 disaster.

Dallas Henault is running for the BC Liberals. He is young and passionately loves politics. He is well plugged into the online world.

Adam Saab is the Green candidate. Nice guy, hard working, but nothing to indicate he will pull the Green vote up much.

Viola Langley is running for BC Refederation. She is not the sort of person I would have expected to run for what was a cranky old white guy political party. I will post more on her and other less covered candidates during the election.

The riding has lost Vic West to Esquimalt Royal Roads and gained some area on the northern edge from what was Victoria Hillside. The 2005 results in the boundaries show very little change in the results.


My prediction as a result is as follows:

• Carole James - 14000
• Dallas Henault - 9000
• Adam Saab - 3000
• Viola Langley - 500

Oak Bay Gordon Head

The Oak Bay Gordon Head riding is remaining largely in the same form that it had the last few times around. There is some area that has been shaved off on the west is in Victoria Swan Lake.

Ida Chong is running for the fourth time for the BC Liberals.

Jessica Van der Veen is running for the NDP.

A Joel Laforet is listed as being a candidate for Refederation BC. Steven Johns is the candidate for the Greens.

The redistribution makes the riding results for 2005 slightly better for the NDP.

In 1991 and 1996 Elizabeth Cull was the NDP candidate. In 2001 and 2005 Charley Beresford was the NDP candidate. Both of them were well known in those elections. Jessica Van der Veen is an unknown.

2005 there was a lot of anger in the civil service towards the government, but not enough to let the NDP win.

It is now four years later and the anger in Victoria is dramatically less than last time.

I do not see any danger of Ida Chong being defeated here on May 12th. If Ida Chong loses here, the polling numbers in BC have to almost completely reverse from where they have been. The Liberals need to be at 40% and the NDP at 45%. I can not see this happening.

I see the result happening as following:

• Ida Chong 51%
• Jessica Van der Veen 37%
• Green Candidate 11%
• Joel Laforet 1%

Looking at the Race in Juan de Fuca

This is a race between John Horgan for the NDP and Jody Twa for the Liberals, though unlikely to be suspenseful race.


Changes in the Riding

In the last couple of elections, the bulk of this riding was Malahat Juan de Fuca and reliably NDP most of the time. The changed boundaries move the riding fully into the Capital Regional District. The riding gains Metchosin from the former Esquimalt Metchosin. It places most of the Westshore into one riding but is missing Colwood and the Westshore parts of View Royal.

In a straight transposition from 2005 poll by poll results to the new boundaries, this is a safe NDP riding.

John Horgan

John has been one of the clear strong voices for the NDP in the class of 2005. He is well liked and intelligent. He understands the needs of his area. He is clearly a very strong candidate for the NDP. I am estimating 45% for him.

Jody Twa

Jody was a popular mayor of Colwood and has a good following throughout the Westshore. Problem is that Colwood is not in the riding. I can not see a senario in which he realistically will win this seat. If Stew Young can harness the electoral power he showed in the municipal elections, this might make the race look more competitive, but I do not think it will make enough of a difference. I am estimating 39% for him.

The Rest
There is no Green candidate nominated yet, though I have my suspicions at who it will be. I figure they will take about 9-10% of the vote and not be a factor in the race.

The wikipedia page about the BC election indicates that Refederation BC says they will be running Stephanie Doucette. I can not find anything about her, with less than two months before the election this not a sign of a strong campaign. I am guessing she will take around 2% of the vote.

I suspect that if DRBC does manage to run any sort of slate of candidates, this is one of the areas were they will run.

May 12, 2009 Election in this Region

I will be posting links to all the candidate running in each of the seven ridings in the area. You will find the links on park way down the page on the right hand side.