Monday, March 16, 2009

Looking at the Race in Juan de Fuca

This is a race between John Horgan for the NDP and Jody Twa for the Liberals, though unlikely to be suspenseful race.

Changes in the Riding

In the last couple of elections, the bulk of this riding was Malahat Juan de Fuca and reliably NDP most of the time. The changed boundaries move the riding fully into the Capital Regional District. The riding gains Metchosin from the former Esquimalt Metchosin. It places most of the Westshore into one riding but is missing Colwood and the Westshore parts of View Royal.

In a straight transposition from 2005 poll by poll results to the new boundaries, this is a safe NDP riding.

John Horgan

John has been one of the clear strong voices for the NDP in the class of 2005. He is well liked and intelligent. He understands the needs of his area. He is clearly a very strong candidate for the NDP. I am estimating 45% for him.

Jody Twa

Jody was a popular mayor of Colwood and has a good following throughout the Westshore. Problem is that Colwood is not in the riding. I can not see a senario in which he realistically will win this seat. If Stew Young can harness the electoral power he showed in the municipal elections, this might make the race look more competitive, but I do not think it will make enough of a difference. I am estimating 39% for him.

The Rest
There is no Green candidate nominated yet, though I have my suspicions at who it will be. I figure they will take about 9-10% of the vote and not be a factor in the race.

The wikipedia page about the BC election indicates that Refederation BC says they will be running Stephanie Doucette. I can not find anything about her, with less than two months before the election this not a sign of a strong campaign. I am guessing she will take around 2% of the vote.

I suspect that if DRBC does manage to run any sort of slate of candidates, this is one of the areas were they will run.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Stew Young and the surrounding West Shore mayors have committed to backing Jody in the election. If they haven't already come out and supported him look for it soon, maybe around when the writ drops.

I wouldn't count him out yet. Of course John is a tough candidate, but I see this being a lot closer then many are predicting.

What would you say the magical number for victory is in this riding?