Thursday, November 18, 2010

Handicapping the Top 3 in the City of Victoria By-Election and the Referendum

I will quickly handicap the front runners in the race:

Barry Hobbis - 4 in 5 chance of winning

Barry will win because he has the best campaign I have seen in this region for a council seat.   His campaign has been serious and professional.   He will also win because he is not Marianne Alto and is gaining the vote of the people opposed to an New Democrat getting elected.  Even though he is opposed to the new bridge, he seems to be garnering the majority of the supporters of the new bridge.

Steve Filipovic - 1 in 7 chance of winning 

Steve has several factors in his favour.   He will have Green Party on the ballot.   He is the most obvious left of centre candidate in favour of saving the bridge and from this he is getting a lot of traditional NDP support.   He has won the sign war.  He has shaken more than 8000 hands himself.

Marianne Alto -  1 in 25 chance of winning

The only factor she has going for her is the NDP machine, problem is that large parts of that crowd are not voting for her because of her stance on the bridge.   I do not see the evidence that the NDP machine is strong enough to get out enough vote to elect her.

No - 9 in 10 chance of winning

No starts with a much higher portion of the public because of all the people that signed the counter petition.   The downside No has is that there has been very little to see of an active campaign for No.  An active No campaign from the start would have sealed the deal.

Yes  - 1 in 10 chance of winning

The City has put a lot of resources into trying to get a Yes, if the turnout is high enough they might be able to pull of a narrow win.  The City campaign does suffer from being arrogant and looks it comes from the to down.   It has been a very badly run campaign and might only succeed because of shear brute force.


Solange said...

It all comes back to name recognition Bernard. I cant believe you would call any differently for Marianne.

No one else stood a chance with this council, MLA's and Denise Savoie endorsing her.

Not that the other candidates were any stronger mind you.

Regardless, partisan politics in the civic arena needs to end.

Bernard said...

The name recognition, she was doing worse than Barry Hobbis and Steve Filipovic until the end of the election.

I admit I had not factored in the endorsements, they have not been common and I had not thought about their impact.

I also assumed about 5000 more people would be voting No and allocated most of those votes to Barry and Steve, enough to have Barry win and Steve come much closer to Marianne. I had not factored in so many people signing the petition and then not voting, which was completely out of character with borrowing bylaw referendums