2017 Saanich By-election Financial Analysis

These are the figures for money raised and spent by each candidate in 2017 Saanich Council by-election.   Also included is how much was donated by unions, businesses and the candidate themselves.

All amounts rounded to the nearest dollar, candidates are in order of how they finished in the election.

NOTE:  The disclosure statements will still be altered so these are not the final numbers

Candidate          raised   spent   union business personal
Karen Harper      $33,477  $33,477     $0  $8,700  $9,829 (1)
Rebecca Merserau  $22,804  $22,804     $0  $1,500  $6,192 (2)
Nathalie Chambers $19,830  $19,830   $500      $0      $0 (3) 
Michael Geoghegan $15,550  $16,648 $1,500  $4,100      $0 (4) 
Ned Taylor         $1,895   $1,457     $0      $0    $180 (5)
Rob Wickson        $6,714   $5,877     $0  $1,050  $5,000
Shawn Newby        $1,450   $2,427     $0      $0  $1,000
Marsha Henderson     $873     $872     $0    $693      $0 (6)
Keith Davidoff       $112      $12     $0      $0      $0 (7)
Art Pollard          $360      $53     $0      $0    $100
TOTALS           $103,065 $103,457 $2,000 $16,093 $22,301

(1) $4,615 donated by Harbhajun Sall $3,000, donated by Mike Geric construction, $5,000 donated by a company controlled by Allen Vandekerkhove
(2) $10,200 donated by Naomi Devine $150 from Janet Mersereau
(3) $611 donated by David Chambers, $2,000 donated by Jennifer Whitfield, $200 donated by Sylvia Olsen, $3,000 donated by Ted Newman, $200 donated by former NDP MLA Gary Holman, $100 donated by Central Saanich Councilor Alicia Holman.  The return seems to be missing some details
(4) $100 donated by Irene Geoghegan, $1,500 donated by the Victoria Building Trades Council, $1,000 donated by Farmacy, $5,000 donated by Allen Vandekerkhove, $2,000 donated by Baked Edibles.  The return seems to be missing some details 
(5) $100 each from Matt Taylor and Daphne Taylor
(6) The return seems to be missing some details
(7) $100 donated by Ida Chong, the return seems to be missing some details

2017 Saanich By-Election

The by-election was held September 23rd 2017 to fill the seat left vacant by the death of Vic Derman

1. Karen Harper      2,340
2. Rebecca Merserau  2,238 (ran in 2014 coming 9th of 13)
3. Nathalie Chambers 1,856
4. Michael Geoghegan   863
5. Ned Taylor          597
6. Rob Wickson         577 (ran in 2011 coming 9th out of 12, and in 2008 9th of 11)
7. Shawn Newby         465 (ran in 2014 coming 11th of 13)
8. Marsha Henderson    344 (ran in 2014 coming 13th of 13)
9. Keith Davidoff      163
10. Art Pollard          83

Total vote 9,526 of 83,559 which is a turnout of 11.40%

Past Saanich Election Results

2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 2001 by 1999 1996 1993  

Incumbents in the CRD are re-elected 87.8% of the time

The first number is the incumbents defeated, the second is incumbent councilors that ran.  Empty slots indicate a lack of information, na means the municipality did not exist
Municipality    2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 TOTAL  pct
Central Saanich  0/4  1/4  1/4  0/4  0/2  0/5            2/23   8.7%
Colwood          0/3  1/4  0/3  2/6  2/5  0/1  1/3       6/25  24.0%
Esquimalt        2/5  0/2  0/3  2/4  1/3  0/3  1/4       6/24  25.0%
Highlands        0/2  0/6  0/1  0/3  1/4  0/2  0/2  na   1/20   5.0%
Langford         0/6  0/6  0/5  0/6  0/4  0/5  1/3  na   1/35   2.9%
Metchosin        0/2  0/4  0/2  2/4  0/1                 2/13  15.4%
North Saanich    3/4  0/2  1/5  1/2  0/4  1/2  1/4       7/23  30.4%
Oak Bay          0/3  0/3  0/5  0/4  1/6  0/3            1/24   4.2%
Saanich          2/8  0/7  0/6  0/5  1/8  1/8  1/5  1/7  6/54  11.1%
Sidney           0/2  0/4  2/4  0/4  0/6                 2/20  10.0%
Sooke            0/4  0/3  1/3  0/2  1/5  na   na   na   2/17  11.8%
Victoria         0/6  3/8  0/5  0/6  1/6  1/6  0/6  0/4  5/47  10.6%
View Royal       0/3  0/3  0/3  0/3  0/3  1/2  1/3  1/4  3/24  12.5%
TOTALS           7/52 5/56 5/49 7/53 8/57               45/369 12.2%
PCT             13.5  8.9  10.2 13.2 14.0

Last time an incumbent was defeated
2014 - Saanich, Esquiamlt, North Saanich
2011 - Victoria, Colwood, Central Saanich
2008 - Sidney, Sooke
2005 - Metchosin
2002 - Highlands, Oak Bay
1999 - View Royal
1996 - Langford

In the history of Langford and Highlands only one incumbent in each has ever been defeated.   In Sooke it is 2 over the history of the municipality

2014 Sooke School District SD#62 Election Results

Belmont Zone - 4 trustees to be elected

1. Wendy Hobbs         3,835 incumbent
2. Ravi Parmar         3,668
3. Dianna Seaton       3,068 incumbent
4. Denise Riley        2,641 incumbent 
5. Jan Peever          2,334
6. Stephanie Longstaff 2,308
7. Trudy Spiller       2,201
8. Donald Brown        2,197
9. Dean Sutton         1,524
10. Sarah Wilson        1,217
11. Melissa McConnell     895
12. Timothy Rud           461

I do not have the vote results for 2011 so I can not show the change in vote

Milnes Landing Zone - 3 trustees to be elected

1. Margot Swinburnson 2,271 (+447) incumbent
2. Robert Phillips    1,813 (+546) incumbent
3. Neil Poirier       1,748 (+181) incumbent
4. Benula Larsen      1,058
5. Doris Gulmans        976
6. Arthur Chipps        766

Past Election Results

2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 1990

If you know old results that I do not have, please let me know

How did the incumbents do? An 86.5% re-election rate

We had 52 incumbent councilors run in 2014, 45 of them were re-elected.  That is 86.5% re-election rate which is actually worse than has been the case in this region.

In 10 of the 13 municipalities all the incumbent councilors running were re-elected.

• Three of four incumbents were defeated in North Saanich - in the previous 6 elections only four were defeated
• Two of eight incumbents were defeated in Saanich this time, the first ones defeated since 2002 In the last seven elections only six have been defeated
• Two of six incumbents were  defeated in Esquimalt, the first since 2005.   A total of six have been defeated in the last seven elections

1,557 people voted for David Shebib

Here is a table of how well he did in all 13 municipalities

Municipality  Pct  Vote  Rank
Langford    12.98%  556   2/2
Highlands    8.05%   42   2/2
Colwood      3.33%   94   3/3
Metchosin    2.51%   39   3/3
Cent Saanich 1.80%   91   3/3
Saanich      1.63%  482   3/3
Oak Bay      1.47%  102   3/3
Sooke        0.65%   26   3/3
Esquimalt    0.57%   25   3/3
Nth Saanich  0.48%   23   4/4
Sidney       0.39%   15   5/5
Victoria     0.25%   62   7/8
TOTAL             1,557

The fact the David Shebib managed to get almost 13% of the vote and over 500 votes in Langford says to me there is a discontent with the current mayor.  The very fact that close to 13% would be willing to vote for a clearly off the wall and not serious candidate says something about what people thing of Stew Young

The two municipalities where David Shebib did the worst were the ones where there were four serious candidates.

With 1,557 votes overall in the CRD David Shebib got more votes than  a number of the people elected as mayor

Ken Williams    Highlands      480
Steve Price     Sidney       1,312
Joihn Ranns     Metchosin    1,334
David Screech   View Royal   1,336
Carol Hamilton  Colwood      2,368
Alice Finall    Nth Saanich  2,416
Maja Tait       Sooke        2,527
Ryan Windsor    Cent Saanich 2,998
Barb Desjardins Esquimalt    3,180
Nils Jensen     Oak Bay      3,640
Stew Young      Langford     3,727
Lisa Helps      Victoria     9,200
Richard Atwell  Saanich     14,178

Results of the Amalgamation Referendums

Results
Municipality    Yes %  No %   Yes    No 
Saanich         88.5%  11.5% 21,437 2,780
Victoria        80.0%  20.0% 18,351 4.601
Central Saanich 70.7%  29.3%  3,588 1,489
Sidney          67.6%  32.4%  2,566 1,232
Esquimalt       67.5%  32.5%  2,905 1,404
North Saanich   62.5%  37.5%  2,881 1,727
Langford        51.6%  48.3%  2,222 2,209
Oak Bay         37.7%  61,2%  2,184 3,594
                             56,134 19,025


The Questions - they were rather varied across the region
Central Saanich
Should the District of Central Saanich petition the Province to fund a cost/benefit analysis of an amalgamation of Central Saanich, North Saanich and Sidney?
Esquimalt
Are you in favour of exploring the reduction of the number of municipalities within Greater Victoria through amalgamation with?
Langford
Are you in favour if the City of Langford being amalgamated into a larger regional muncipality?
North Saanich
Non-Binding Question: Are you in favour of a study, provincially funded, to investigate the feasibility, costs and implications of amalgamating the three municipalities on the Saanich Peninsula of Sidney, Central Saanich and North Saanich?
Oak Bay
Are you in favour of the District of Oak Bay being amalgamated into a larger regional municipality?
Saanich
Do you support Council initiating a community-based review of the governance structure and policies within Saanich and our partnerships within the Region?
Sidney
Non-Binding Question: Are you in favour of a provincially funded study to investigate the feasibility, costs and implications of amalgamating the three municipalities of the Saanich Peninsula?
Victoria
Are you in favour of reducing the number of municipalities in Greater Victoria through amalgamation?

2014 Saanich School District SD#63 Elections Results

Sidney - 1 Trustee

1. Jason Price      1,310
2. Allan Collier    1,220
3. Jim Standen        557

North Saanich - 2 Trustees

1. Barb Menzies     2,727 (+497) incumbent
2. Elsie McMurphy   2,390
3. Robert Marty       984

Central Saanich - 2 Trustees

1. Tim Dunford      2,192 incumbent
2. Nancy Borden     1,741
3. Pat Bryant       1,553
4. Nicholas Claxton 1,331 incumbent

Saanich - 2 Trustees

1. Wayne Hunter     3,851 (+900) incumbent
2. Victoria Martin  3,345
3. Kerry Steinemann 1,393 (+593)

2014 Greater Victoria School District SD#61 Election Results

9 Trustees to be elected

1. Ann Whiteaker        20,252
2. Deborah Nohr         20,177  (+6,732) incumbent
3. Peg Orcherton        20,083  (+4,470) Incumbent 
4. Diane McNally        20,057  (+7,080) incumbent
5. Rob Paynter          18,926 (+10,789)  
6. Elaine Leonard       17,855  (+3,113) incumbent  
7. Edith Loring-Kuhanga 17,389  (+6,125) incumbent  
8. Tom Ferris           16,940  (+4,340) incumbent
9. Jordan Watters       16,658 
10. Bev Horsman          16,351  (+2,556) incumbent
11. Nicole Duncan        14,247
12. John Rizzuti         12,458
13. Ruth MacIntosh       12,222

Past Election Results

2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

Voter Turnout in 2014 - still abysmal

Here is a table of the turnout ranked by best to worst in 2014

Municipality    2014 2011 2008
North Saanich   53.1 41.5 52.5
Sidney          43.0 31.0 36.5
Oak Bay         42.9 42.0 36.0
Sooke           41.5 41.9 40.1
Victoria        39.1 26.4 26.9
Metchosin       36.9 48.8 58.8
Saanich         36.2 25.4 21.0 
Central Saanich 36.1 32.4 33.4
Esquimalt       30.3 18.0 26.9
Highlands       30.1 ---  ???? - 2011 was an acclamation
View Royal      28.1 27.9 23.3
Colwood         25.5 26.8 27.0
Langford        19.0 14.0 22.9

Even with talk of a higher voter turnout, the numbers are not much better than in the past several elections.    In eight of 12 municipalities this year was the best turnout of the last three elections

The biggest absolute increases were in Saanich and Victoria but still they were barely more than one third.  Most people really were not engaged by the election.

We did see one municipality where voter turnout was over 50%, North Saanich.

In Esquimalt and North Saanich the large rise in turnout were caused because the mayors were no acclaimed.   

2014 View Royal Election Results

2,136 out of 7,605 voted for a turnout of 28.1%

Mayor

1. David Screech 1,336 - sitting councilor
2. Brian Burchill  725
3. David Shebib     45

Council - 4 to be elected

1. Heidi Rast     1,536 (+181) incumbent
2. John Rogers    1,499 (+217) incumbent
3. Ron Mattson    1,417 (+404) incumbent
4. Aaron Weisgerber 966
5. Mark Brennan     885
6. Wes Kennedy      780

Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 1990

2014 Sooke Election Results

3,881 out of 9,354 voted for a turnout 41.5%

Mayor

1. Maja Tait    2,527 sitting councilor
2. Herb Haldane 1,263 sitting councilor
3. David Shebib    26

Council - 6 to be elected

1. Kerrie Reay      2,171 (+592) incumbent
2. Ebony Logins     2,116
3. Brenda Parkinson 2,034
4. Kevin Pearson    1,870   (+2) incumbent
5. Rick Kasper      1,847 (+112) incumbent
6. Bev Berger       1,807  (-17) incumbent
7. Jeff Bateman     1,783
8. Kel Phair        1,430
9. Mark Whiteson    1,031
10. Justin Hanson     1,029

Referendum
Would you support the District of Sooke working with the community to develop multi-use community centre facilities?
Yes 3,072
No 631

Should the District of Sooke join other municipalities in renewing and restating its opposition to the expansion of oil tanker traffic through Coastal BC waters?
Yes 2,618
No 1,138

Past Elections Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999

2014 Town of Sidney Election Results

3,911 out 9,100 voted for a turnout of 43.0%

Mayor

1. Steve Price        1,312 sitting councillor
2. Cliff McNeil-Smith 1,180 
3. Don Amos             706 former mayor
4. Steve Duck           674
5. David Shebib          15

Council - 6 to be elected

1. Erin Bremner          2,269
2. Barbara Fallot        2,085
3. Peter Wainwright      2,046
4. Mervyn Lougher-Goodey 1,926 (+179) incumbent
5. Tim Chad              1,741 (+125) incumbent
6. Cam McLennan          1,543
7. Sheilah Fea           1,475
8. Melissa Hailey        1,378 (+31) incumbent
9. Bob Jones             1,378
10. Colin Plint           1,169
11. Mike Barwick          1,063
12. Romi Bongers            817

Referendum
Non-Binding Question: Are you in favour of a provincially funded study to investigate the feasibility, costs and implications of amalgamating the three municipalities of the Saanich Peninsula?
Yes 2,566
No 1,232

Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999

2014 Oak Bay Election Results

6,058 out of 14,107 voted for a turnout of 42.9%

Mayor

1. Nils Jensen       3.640 (+443) incumbent
2. Cairine Green     2,197 sitting councilor
3. David Shebib        102

Council - 6 to be elected

1. Kevin Murdoch     3,875 (+528) incumbent 
2. Hazel Braithwaite 3,546
3. Tara Ney          3,411 (-488) incumbent 
4. Michelle Kirby    2,587  (-29) incumbent
5. Eric Zhelka       2,584
6. Tom Croft         2,549
7. Max Johannesen    2,165
8. Andrew Stinson    2,053
9. Heather Holmes    2,040
10. Jan Mears         1,265
11. Joan Russow         995

Referendum
Are you in favour of the District of Oak Bay being amalgamated into a larger regional municipality?
No  3,594
Yes 2,184

Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

2014 North Saanich Election Results

4,812 out of 9,055 voted for a turnout of 53.1%

Mayor

1. Alice Finall       2,416 incumbent
2. Dorothy Hartshorne 2,258
3. Peter Miller          62
4. David Shebib          23

Council - 6 to be elected

1. Geoff Orr           3,367
2. Heather Gartshore   3,248
3. Jack Thornburgh     3,000 (+1,086)   
4. Celia Stock         2,938   (+981) incumbent
5. Jack McClintock     1,904
6. Murray Weisenberger 1,904
7. Steve Pearce        1,899
8. Craig Mearns        1,673   (-369) incumbent
9. Conny McBride       1,601   (-382) incumbent
10. Dunstan Browne      1,528   (-447) incumbent

Referendum
Non-Binding Question: Are you in favour of a study, provincially funded, to investigate the feasibility, costs and implications of amalgamating the three municipalities on the Saanich Peninsula of Sidney, Central Saanich and North Saanich?
Yes 2,881
No  1,727

Past Election Results
2011 2010 by 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

2014 Metchosin Election Results

1,584 out of 4,287 voted for a turnout of 36.9%

Mayor

1. John Ranns   1,334 (-120) incumbent
2. Ed Cooper      183 (-208) incumbent
3. David Shebib    39

Council - 4 to be elected

1. Bob Gramigna    1.082 (-150) incumbent
2. Andy MacKinnon  1,068
3. Moralea Milne   1,010  (-40) incumbent
4. Kyara Kahakauwila 828  (-93) 
5. Chris Moehr       568
6. Anne Richmond     565
7. Karen Watson      414 (-145)

Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999

2014 Langford Election Results

4,532 people out of 23,864 voted for a turnout of 19.0%

Mayor

1. Stew Young       3,727 (+1,408) - incumbent
2. David Shebib       556

Council - 6 to be elected

1. Lillian Szpak    2,760 (+824) incumbent
2. Denise Blackwell 2,540 (+580) incumbent
3. Lanny Seaton     2,373 (+542) incumbent
4. Winnie Sifert    2,326 (+493) incumbent
5. Roger Wade       2,236 (+596) incumbent
6. Matt Sahlstrom   2,174 (+494) incumbent
7. Jim Munro        1,328
8. Pauline Adams    1,293
9. Dustin Finerty   1,241
10. Grant McLachlan  1,065 (-154)
11. Mark McInnes     1,003
12. Paul Barber        889
13. Timothy Power      854
14. Andre Mollon       368

Referendum 
Are you in favour of the City of Langford being amalgamated into a larger regional municipality?
Yes 2,222
No  2,209

Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

2014 Highlands Election Results

518 out of 1,723 voted for a turnout of 30.1%

Mayor

1. Ken Williams 480 - sitting councilor
2. David Shebib  42

Council - 6 to be elected

1. Leslie Anderson 458
2. Karel Roessingh 453 incumbent
3. Marcie McLean   411 incumbent
4. Karen Burns     408
5. Gord Barid      398
6. Ann Baird       395
7. Sherry Clayton  214

2011 the council was acclaimed 

Past Election Results

2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

2014 Township of Esquimalt Election Results

4,407 people out of 14,545 voted for a turnout of 30.3%

Mayor

1. Barb Desjardins 3,180 incumbent
2. John Ducker       962
3. Scott Attrill     196
4. David Shebib       25

Council - 6 to be elected

1. Susan Low         2,749
2. Tim Morrison      2,550 (+895) incumbent
3. Meagan Brame      2,535 (+904) incumbent
4. Beth Burton-Krahn 2,347
5. Lynda Hundleby    2,345 (+775) incumbent
6. Olga Liberchuck   1,809
7. Mark Salter       1,748
8. Bob McKie         1,606  (+12) incumbent
9. Brenda O'Connor   1,123
10. Rod Lavergne        775
11. David Schinbein     761 (-179) incumbent
12. Josh Steffler       726  (-74) 

Referendums
Are you in favour of the Township of Esquimalt exploring options to achieve efficiencies by further sharing some services with other municipalities?
Yes 3,731
No    578
Are you in favour of exploring the reduction of the number of municipalities within Greater Victoria through amalgamation?
Yes 2,905
No  1,404

Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

2014 Colwood Election Results

2940 people out of 11,536 voted for a turnout of 25.5%

Mayor

1. Carol Hamilton     2,368 (+956) incumbent
2. Robin Stanbridge     359
3. David Shebib          94

Council - 6 to be elected

1. Rob Martin         1,896 (+251) incumbent
2. Cynthia Day        1,881 (+230) incumbent
3. Gordie Logan       1,846 (+145) incumbent
4. Jason Nault        1,708
5. Lilja Chong        1,564
6. Terry Trace        1,430
7. Natalia Lebedynsky 1,226
8. Duane MacNeill       935 (+124)
9. Paul DeVito          676
10. Steve Huneck         480
11. Robb Marty           327

Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996