Monday, April 27, 2009

Election Prediction for Greater Victoria Ridings

Esquimalt Royal Roads
  • Marine Karagianis - NDP - 40%
  • Jane Sterk - Green - 35%
  • Carl Ratsoy - Liberal - 25%

Juan De Fuca
  • John Horgan - NDP - 48%
  • Jody Twa - Liberal - 41%
  • James Powell - Green - 11%

Oak Bay Gordon Head
  • Ida Chong - Liberal - 48%
  • Jessica Van der Veen - NDP - 40%
  • Steven Johns - Green - 12%

Saanich North and the Islands
  • Murray Coell - Liberal - 45%
  • Gary Holman - NDP - 33%
  • Tom Bradfield - Green - 22%

Saanich South
  • Robin Adair - Liberal - 47%
  • Lana Popham - NDP - 44%
  • Brian Gordon - Green - 8%
  • Doug Christie - WCC - 1%

Victoria Beacon Hill
  • Carole James - NDP - 41%
  • Dallas Henault - Liberal - 33%
  • Adam Saab - Green - 25%
  • Saul Andersen - Ind - 1%

Victoria Swan Lake
  • Rob Fleming - NDP - 53%
  • Jesse McClinton - Liberal - 31%
  • David Wright - Green - 15%
  • Bob Savage - Refed - 1%
The net result is that the Liberals gain on seat in this region.

I believe that the only ridings where the result might be in question is in Saanich South and Esquimalt Roayl roads.

Lana Popham might pull off a win despite the party pulling her down, much will come down down to who is voting. Older voters remember Robin Adair as the news anchor locally and have a lot of trust in him. Lana has a very strong following from people that have met her over the last years in relation to your community activism.

Jane Sterk might pull off a surprise win in Esquimalt Royal Roads, but for me to think this is possible I would have to see a much stronger on the ground campaign from her, strength online, and a good preformance on TV.

I do not think that Jody Twa will be able to defeat John Horgan given incumbency and the hard work in the riding from John Horgan.

Saanich North and the Islands has been home of a strong core of a Green vote, but the party campaign in that riding this time is not strong enough to move the party up to second place, let alone win.

I think Carole James will survive the election because Adam Saab and Dallas Henault are both campaigning very hard and neither one will be the 'obvious' choice to vote for to defeat her. I do see a lot of people staying home and a strong shift of people to the Greens.
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