My Prediction of the Result:
- Rob Fleming 12 200
- Jesse McClinton - 7100
- David Wright - 3450
- Spoiled Ballots - 500
- Bob Savage - 230
The riding has been shifted to the north from the previous elections when the bulk of it was Victoria Hillside. The riding now takes in more of Saanich than Victoria with the new boundary being along Mackenzie from Cedar Hill to the Highway #17 and then taking in all of the Tillicum Gorge and Portage Inlet neighbourhoods.
Demographically the change is effectively a zero sum game with no one getting the advantage. Over the last four years there has been some change in the neighbourhoods. The Tllicum Gorge area has more home owners that are young professionals than in the past because it has been one of the few neighbourhoods that has been affordable for people getting into the market. Short term I do not think this will harm the NDP, but longer term this could signal a change in the area. It also means that new riding has more owners and fewer renters.
Rob Fleming has been one of the top ten NDP MLAs in this last term, but that is more because the NDP caucus was rather weak than Rob Fleming came out of the gate strongly. I expect him to grow into the role and over the next ten years become one of the strongest voices in the opposition. Should the NDP win government in a future election, I see him in cabinet. He may run for the leadership of the NDP once Carole James steps down, but I see a run this time only being a trial for a real run the next time the job opens up. He has time, he is only in his late 30s.
Jesse McClinton is running for the Liberals. He is young guy in a no hope riding for the governing party. He knows this is a chance for him and his team to learn campaigning skills. He has had a chance to learn how to deal with a bad media story - I think he handled the issue well given there was no 'winning' answer. Jesse McClinton is a name I expect to see on the ballot again soon, maybe for city council in 2011, or federally if there is an election sooner rather than later.
For the record, I am voting for him and I have sign up for him.
The Greens are running David Wright. He is an interesting candidate, I think he and I could talk about many things for hours and hours, but I do not see his campaign on the ground. I do not see him really trying to get elected. If he had knocked on my door, or called me, a couple of weeks ago, I might have been presuaded to back him. He is one of two Green candidates I know of in this region that have been involved Scouting, the other being Tom Bradfield in Saanich North and the Islands. The Scouting program and the values of the Greens have some strong overlaps.
There is one more candidate running, Bob Savage for the BC Refederation Party. This is a party of people that feel disempowered and have some suggested ways to things, the biggest being they want a BC constitution and seem to be unaware that we already have one.
Some resources for the campaign in this riding: