In the last 14 elections the NDP has won 4, the Liberals 5 and the PCs 5. The NDP has come second 4 times, the Conservatives and predecessors 7 times and the Liberals 3 times.
In 1988, 1993 and 1997 the combine right wing vote was larger than the MP who won the election.
Year NDP Conservative Liberal Green
2011 30,679 50.78% 14,275 23.63% 8,448 13.98% 7,015 11.61%
2008 26,443 44.61% 16,337 27.56% 10,006 16.88% 6,252 10.55%
2006 23,839 38.46% 15,249 24.60% 17,056 27.62% 5,036 8.13%
2004 18,903 31.08% 12,708 21.83% 20,398 35.04% 6,807 11.69% 93-00 PC 88 Reform
2000 7,243 13.01% 16,502 29.66% 23,730 42.65% 3,254 5.86% 3,629 6.52%
1997 11,419 21.89% 15,393 29.51% 18,130 34.75% 2,805 5.37% 3,589 6.88%
1993 8,091 14.04% 15,891 27.73% 21,402 37.14% 1,125 1.95% 5,982 10.38%
1988 22,399 37.97% 17,660 29.93% 12,617 21.39% 1,037 1.76% 4,956 8.40%
1984 20,480 38.60% 24,588 46.34% 6,702 12.63% 575 1.08%
1980 17,088 34.32% 25,068 50.34% 7,145 14.35%
1979 15,344 29.93% 28,058 54.74% 7,766 15.15%
1974 7,108 14.69% 26,771 45.34% 14,289 29.54% SoCred
1972 11,192 23.26% 22,842 47.48% 12,264 25.49% 1,173 2.44%
1968 9,414 22.46% 13,578 32.29% 18,401 43.90%
(in 1993 4,034 7.00% voted for the National Party)
Only three times in 14 elections did the MP win a majority of the votes on the other hand five of the last seven elections saw the MP elected with less than 40% of the vote.
Also of interest is the strength of the Greens in Victoria. Since 1997 Victoria has been one of their best results nationwide, even the results for 1984, 88 and 93 were among the best for the party anywhere in the country. The CRD is also home to the largest concentration of Green volunteers in Canada.
Of all the elections, only 1988, 1997, and 2004 were close elections.
What will happen in the by-election? Without knowing when it is and who is running it is hard to know but I will make a stab at it.
The Conservatives have enough money to run the election now and should be able to take close to 30% of the vote.
The Greens have shown that in a focused campaign they can take 30% of the vote
The riding is more NDP than anything else, but because it has all of Oak Bay and Cadboro Bay, it is not a slam dunk for the party. I think 35% is reasonable as a starting point for the NDP.
The Federal Liberal party is in complete disarray in BC and are unlikely to get a star candidate like they had in the 2011 election. Realistically the Liberals will manage around 10% of the vote.
My best guess at the ranges possible for each party:
- NDP 32-38%
- Greens 25-32%
- Conservatives 23-30%
- Liberal 7-10%
- CAP 1% - I expect the leader Christopher Porter to run in the by-election
Much depends on who the major three parties find as candidates, the default is a much reduced NDP win, but a star running for the Greens like say Robert Bateman or Guy Dauncey could make it possible for them to win. There are also some better know members of the business community that could win this riding for the Conservatives.
If I were to guess who most likely be the NDP candidate, the following names come to mind - Carole James, Maurine Karagianis, Marianne Alto, Dean Fortin, and Jessica Van der Veen. Possibly Ben Isitt.
4 comments:
Rob Fleming not on the list of possible successors?
I can not see him leaving a slam dunk as a cabinet minister should the NDP win in May for a not guaranteed win to the Fed parliament where he is likely to be in opposition for a long time.
Historically moving to Fed politics has also been a killer for BC NDP leadership aspirations. I am 99% sure Rob Flemming wants to lead the party after Dix likely steps down in the early 20s
Bernard, excellent analysis! I am going to go out on a limb to predict an upset win for the Greens. Elizabeth May's personal popularity and her army of passionate Green Party volunteers in the region will make the difference in squeaking out a victory. By-elections are often about protest voting and sending a strong message to the Ottawa establishment. I am a right leaning swing voter who votes mostly Conservative/Liberal at different times but I would gladly shake things up by voting Green this time around, as did a majority of voters in Saanich-Gulf Islands. Elizibeth May needs to go into overdrive in search of a star candidate, someone with name recognition, credibility, and energy to mount a feisty campaign. She should first approach big stars such as David Suzuki, but thay's a long shot. She should also go after some of Victoria's more popular Councillors such as Lisa Helps, Shelly Gudgeon or Chris Coleman as possible candidates with a lot of local appeal. The Greens can't just run yet another young university PHd student. They need a serious candidate to pull this off. The point is, however, that the first time in Victoria, they are very well-positioned to win. A Victoria by-election (far more so than any other riding in Canada) is a ready-made gift to Elizabeth May in her quest to pick up another seat. May must find a stellar candidate or this opportunity will be wasted...
I actually think the Greens could win this in a 50%+ landslide similar to Saanich-Gulf Islands, but I agree with others that the Green candidate creditials are crucial to this happening. No more 20-something graduate student candidates, but someone with some major profile and achievements. I would never have predicted such a win as recent as a couple of years ago but everything changed with May's 2011 election victory in Saanich.
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