The City of Victoria has seen a dramatic increase in the advance vote
Here is a table of the trends over the last four elections:
Vote Election Year
Opportunity 2014 2011 2008 2005
Day 1 1033 555 433 952
Day 2 1268 853 702 *
UVic 268 - - -
Other Adv 575 - 45 78
TOTAL 3144 1408 1180 1030
(in 2005 I only have the results for both days combined)
(Other Adv in 2014 is Our Place, in 2008 Special Adv and in 2005 Hospital Adv)
Federally, provincially and municipally there has been a consistent rise in advance voting in every subsequent election. In the City of Victoria I would have expected the advance vote total to have been 1600 or so without the UVic poll. The actual advance vote in Victoria is 1200 or so higher than I would have expected.
Yes, there is more interest in the campaign because there are more candidates, each extra serious candidate for mayor would have likely boosted the total by a bit, but nearly that much. There are a lot more votes than there should be and that can only mean one of the campaigns is good at getting the vote. Based on what I have seen I am reasonably certain this is the Lisa Helps campaign.
Conservatively, I think Lisa Helps took 50% of the advance vote.