Thursday, November 13, 2014

Advance voting in the City of Victoria is dramatically higher

The City of Victoria has seen a dramatic increase in the advance vote

Here is a table of the trends over the last four elections:
Vote         Election Year
Opportunity 2014 2011 2008 2005
Day 1       1033  555  433  952
Day 2       1268  853  702   *
UVic         268   -    -    -
Other Adv    575   -    45   78
TOTAL       3144 1408 1180 1030
(in 2005 I only have the results for both days combined)
(Other Adv in 2014 is Our Place, in 2008 Special Adv and in 2005 Hospital Adv)

Federally, provincially and municipally there has been a consistent rise in advance voting in every subsequent election.  In the City of Victoria I would have expected the advance vote total to have been 1600 or so without the UVic poll.    The actual advance vote in Victoria is 1200 or so higher than I would have expected.

Yes, there is more interest in the campaign because there are more candidates, each extra serious candidate for mayor would have likely boosted the total by a bit, but nearly that much.    There are a lot more votes than there should be and that can only mean one of the campaigns is good at getting the vote.   Based on what I have seen I am reasonably certain this is the Lisa Helps campaign. 

Conservatively, I think Lisa Helps took 50% of the advance vote.    
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