Victoria Vision: 2014 Municipal Elections

Showing posts with label 2014 Municipal Elections. Show all posts

Sunday, December 17, 2017

2014 Victoria Council Election Financial Analysis

These are the figures for money raised and spent by each candidate in 2014 municipal election. Also included is how much was donated by unions, businesses and the candidate themselves.

All amounts rounded to the nearest dollar, candidates are in order of how they finished in the election

Mayor
Candidate raised spent union business personal
Lisa Helps $88,564 $88,309 $0 $44,875 $2,975 (1)
Dean Fortin $128,999 $128,552 $38,250 $49,305 $5,355 (2)
Ida Chong $113,402 $113,402 $0 $88,286 $472 (3)
Stephen Andrew $76,316 $77,042 $0 $3,474 $28,919 (4)
Robert Duncan $190 $190 $0 $0 $190
Jason Ross $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
David Shebib $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Riga Godron $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Council - 8 to be elected
Candidate raised spent union business personal
Benjamin Isitt $25,821 $26,260 $12,515 $0 $0 (5)
Charlayne Thornton-Joe $7,598 $7,897 $0 $2,184 $0 (6)
Marianne Alto $26,550 $25,795 $2,450 $2,978 $12,361 (7)
Jeremy Loveday $22,532 $22,321 $10,811 $5,570 $0 (8)
Pamela Madoff $11,440 $11,180 $1,150 $3,090 $0 (9)
Geoff Young $8,216 $6,992 $0 $992 $5,253
Margaret Lucas $13,836 $13,629 $0 $5,857 $500
Christopher Coleman $7,643 $8,078 $0 $1,388 $2,515
Erik Kaye $17,646 $17,700 $5,000 $500 $100 (10)
John Luton $11,845 $12,368 $3,800 $2,543 $0 (11)
Hilary Groos $11,143 $10,914 $0 $3,336 $1,080 (12)
Justin Stephenson $20,217 $20,218 $0 $5,199 $9,091 (13)
Andrew Reeve $7,046 $7,046 $0 $1,346 $491 (14)
Steve Filipovic $1,454 $1,482 $0 $0 $1,154 (15)
Ian Hoar $1,709 $1,649 $0 $500 $0
Paul Servos $1,639 $1,639 $0 $461 $1,639 (16)
Ryan Moen $183 $183 $0 $0 $183
Sean Murray $751 $751 $0 $0 $751
Jonathan Carroll $648 $643 $0 $0 $148
Jeffrey Olafson $150 $150 $0 $0 $150
Gordon MacKinnon $847 $604 $0 $0 $822
Saul Andersen $80 $80 $0 $0 $0
John Stewart $1,764 $1,764 $0 $0 $1,764
James Harasymow $20 $20 $0 $0 $0

(1) Council candidate Justin Stephenson donated $1,000. Bob and Judy Skene donated $5,000, ANGO Developments donated $5,000. Evaluation PR Corp donated $3,000. Businesses controlled by Chris LeFevre and Steve Naim donated $5,000. Marianne Unger donated $9,981. Veronica Vander Heiden donated $2,500. Businesses controlled by Leigh Large donated $5,000
(2) BCGEU donated $10,600, CLC donated $5,000, CUPE local 50 donated $5,100. CUPE BC donated $5,000,. Janice Wie Yin Tang donated $2,000. MLA Lana Popham donated $100. MP Murray Rankin donated $100. Patricia Mariash donated $5,000. Townline Homes donated $5,000. Victoria Labour Council donated $6,650
(3) Bard and Banker/Irish Times/Penny Farthing donated $18,893. Stephen Clark donated $2,000. Pacific Beach Investments donated $5,000. Gustavson Capital Corp donated $5,000. Businesses controlled by Jim and Frank Carson donated $5,000. Liberal MLA Moira Stilwell donated $100. Focus Unlimited Partnership donated $10,000
(4) $6,075 donated by Chris Spence
(5) MP Murray Rankin donated $400. CUPE BC donated $5,400. CUPE local 50 donated $3,000. Morgan Stewart $2,200
(6) Council candidate Margaret Lucas donated $100
(7) Lana Popham donated $150. MPs Randall Garrison and Murray Rankin both donated $100
(8) CUPE BC donated $3,000. CUPE local 50 donated $4,500. MLA Lana Popham donated $200. MP Murray Rankin donated $300. Matthew Davidson WebSite Design donated $2,000. Media One Inc donated $2,500
(9) Former MP Denise Savoie donated $100. $3,086 surplus funds from 2011 campaign.
(10) MP Murray Rankin donated $1,000
(11) Former MLA David Cubberly donated $500. Liane Luton donated $100. Vlad Luton donated $100. Former Colwood councilor Ernest Robertson donated $1,877 though in relation to cost sharing an add with Colwood council candidate Lilja Chong.
(12)Former mayor Peter Pollen donated $382
(13) Catherine Stephenson donated $100. Carolyn Stephenson donated $1,000. A.R. Lobmeier Inc donated $4,902
(14) Former MLA Ida Chong donated $100. Former Colwood councilor Ernest Robertson donated $1,261
(15) $200 from Mo Filipovic and $100 from Sherry Filipovic
(16) The $461 business donation was from his own business

Saturday, December 16, 2017

2014 View Royal Council Election Financial Analysis

2014 Saanich School District Election Financial Analysis

These are the figures for money raised and spent by each candidate in 2014 election. Also included is how much was donated by unions, businesses and the candidate themselves.

All amounts rounded to the nearest dollar, candidates are in order of how they finished in the election

Sidney - 1 Trustee
Candidate raised spent union business personal
Jason Price $913 $908 $0 $0 $568
Allan Collier $2,225 $2,102 $0 $0 $1,975 (1)
Jim Standen $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

North Saanich - 2 Trustees
Candidate raised spent union business personal
Barb Menzies $631 $1,031 $0 $0 $631
Elsie McMurphy $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Robert Marty $300 $128 $0 $0 $300

Central Saanich - 2 Trustees
Candidate raised spent union business personal
Tim Dunford $2,000 $1,942 $0 $0 $2,000
Nancy Borden $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Pat Bryant $160 $160 $0 $0 $160
Nicholas Claxton $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Saanich - 2 Trustees
Candidate raised spent union business personal
Wayne Hunter $889 $1,563 $0 $400 $489
Victoria Martin $1,177 $1,177 $0 $0 $1,177
Kerry Steinemann $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

(1) $150 from Elise McMurphy, incumbent Saanich school board candidate in North Saanich

2014 Sooke Council Election Financial Analysis

2014 Sidney Council Election Financial Analysis

Sunday, December 10, 2017

2014 Oak Bay Council Election Financial Analysis

Saturday, December 09, 2017

2014 Metchosin Council Election Financial Analysis

2014 Higlands Council Election Financial Analysis

2014 SD#61 Greater Victoria School Board Election Finances

2014 Esquimalt Council Election Financial Analysis

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

2014 Campaign spending in Central Saanich

losing candidates are in red. Own money means the amount the candidate contributed to their campaign.

Mayor
Candidate Spent Raised Own Money
Ryan Windsor $9,264.68 $8,289.01 $1023.02 (1)
Jack Mar $475.04 $465.79 $455.79
Notes
1) Elizabeth May and Cathy Ounsted each donated $500 to Ryan Windsor. Adam Olsen donated $130.00. Catherine Windsor donated $1,000.00

Council
Candidate Spent Raised Own Money
Naill Paltial $9,686.96 $10,524.52 $5,099.52
Zeb King $9,466.90 $9,874.01 $0.00 (1)
John Hannam $6,007.78 $3,700.00 $2,700.00
Alicia Cormier $5,141.67 $4,420.00 $2,550.00
Bob Thompson $4,009.67 $3,204.41 $1,400.00
Christopher Graham $3,183.89 $534.00 $0.00
Carl Jensen $3,125.11 $2,665.75 $0.00
Susan Mason $1,607.91 $1,307.91 $0.00
Baldev Lalli $286.50 $286.50 $286.50
Shawn Munro $604.75 $1,304.75 (2)
Tex Moodrey $93.00 $58.00 $53.00

Notes
1) $1,100.00 in union donations.
2) $700 in donations from unions - though in general his form does not seem to filled out correctly

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Campaign spending in Colwood - Lilja Chong massively outspent everyone else

The spending for the council race in Colwood is interesting. Lilja Chong massively outspent the competition, She spent $12,770.96 and the all the other candidates only spent about $1,750 more than that. Over $9,000 of her money came from one person, former Colwood councilor Ernie Robertson.

Mayor Raised Spent Own money
Carol Hamilton $3,724.60 $2,501.42 $800.00
Robin Stanbridge $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
David Shebib $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Candidate Raised Spent Own money
Lilja Chong $12,194.45 $12,770.96 $0.00 (1)
Duane MacNeill $3,895.00 $3,895.00 $3,895.00
Rob Martin $2,659.66 $3,659.66 $1,809.66 (2)
Terry Trace $2,500.00 $2,424.05 $0.00 (3)
Jason Nault $3,264.95 $2,226.75 $2,787.71 (4)
Gordie Logan $1,600.00 $1,444.57 $0.00 (5)
Cythnia Day $521.15 $671.15 $671.15
Robb Marty $300.00 $293.18 $300.00
Steve Huneck $274.90 $274.90 $274.90
Natalia Lebedynsky $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Paul DeVito $1,664.79 $1,614.79 $1,414.79
Daryl Clark $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (6)
Frank Kennedy $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (6)

Notes
1) Former Colwood councilor Ernie Robertson contributed $9,026.11. 2017 Saanich by-election candidate Mike Geoghegan donated 41,868.34
2) His own contribution comes from his business
3) Terry Trace had a $500 donation from Anthony Trace and $2,000 from her business Terrus Estates Ltd
4) Jason Nault's campaign had a surplus and he was reimbursed $1,000 making his contribution $1,787.71
5) Gordie Logan received $900.00 from unions
6) Both Daryl Clark and Frank Kennedy withdrew from the eleciton but are still required to fill out an election financing form

Spending in the 2014 Saanich Council Election

(January 13th 2016 - updated because Marsha Henderson is also Marcella Van Ryhn)
Mayor
Candidate Raised Spent Own donation
Frank Leonard $62,371.72 $62,306.14 $0.00 (1)
Richard Atwell $52,838.70 $52,838.70 $21,277.39 (2)
TOTAL $115,210.42 $115,144.84 $21,277.39
Notes
1) Frank Leonard's wife donated $1,145
2) Richard Atwell received $10,000 from a business owned by Allen Vandkerkhove

Richard Atwell contributed 40,27% of the money he spent on his campaign

Council ranked by spending
Candidate Raised Spent Own donation Union
Fred Haynes $25,410.00 $29,292.00 $360.00 $1,500.00 (1)
Vicki Sanders $20,029.96 $23,518.46 $8,913.16 (2)
Leif Wergeland $18,950.23 $15,992.61 $6,908.23 (3)
Colin Plant $14,860.12 $14,860.12 $2,434.11 $4,700.00
Judy Brownoff $12,920.80 $13,720.80 $126.80 $7,550.00
Dean Murdock $13,068.18 $13,718.18 $138.18 $6,150.00
Paul Gerrard $7,160.00 $12,454.77 $6,760.00
Susan Brice $19,682.93 $12,228.63 $11,916.91 (4)
Nichola Wade $11,837.25 $11,837.25 $8,311.25
Vic Derman $9,306.00 $10,984.06 $8,200.00
Shawn Newby $10,540.45 $10,530.07 $8,227.74
Marsha Henderson $5,125.79 $5.125.79 $0.00 (5)
Rebecca Mersereau $3,835.16 $3,835.16 $2,745.16
TOTALS $172,726.87 $172,972.11 $65,041.54 $19,900.00
Notes
1) Fred Haynes received $5000 from a business owned by Allen Vandkerkhove. Fred Haynes own donation was via a company he owns
2) Vicki Sanders husband seems to have contributed $4,500 to her campaign
3) Leif Wergeland had a $5,000 contribution from Nancy Wergeland. Leif also contributed $$6,903.23 to his campaign but was reimbursed $2,731.02 for a net contribution of $4,177.21
4) Susan Brice contributed $11,916.91 to her campaign but was reimbursed $7,404.30 for a net contribution of $4,462.61
5) Marsha Henderson had a $4,340.79 donation from Marcella Van Rhyn which is her legal name

The spending by the does not really mirror how well they did on election day.

Candidates ranked based on net personal donation to their campaign
Candidate Net Personal Pct of money spent
Vicki Sanders $8,913.16 37.80% (1)
Nichola Wade $8,311.25 70.21%
Shawn Newby $8,227.74 78.14%
Vic Derman $8,200.00 74.65%
Paul Gerrard $6,760.00 54.28%
Susan Brice $4,462.61 36.49%
Marsha Henderson $4,340.79 84.68%
Leif Wergeland $4,177.21 26.12% (2)
Rebecca Mersereau $2,745.16 71.78%
Colin Plant $2,434.11 16.38%
Fred Haynes $360.00 1.23%
Dean Murdock $138.18 1.01%
Judy Brownoff $126.80 0.92%

Notes
1) If one counts the $5,000 donated by Dennis Sanders as a personal contribution, Vicki Sanders numbers would be $13,913.16 and 59.16%
2) If one counts the $5,000 donated by Nancy Wergeland as a personal contribution, Leif Wergeland's numbers would be $9,177.21 and 57.39%

The only candidate to win that contributed over 50% of the money to their campaign was Vic Derman
The two newly elected councilors contributed well below the average to their own campaign

Out of interest, Saanich South MLA Lana Popham contributed the following:

Vicki Sanders $100
Judy Brownoff $100
Colin Plant $500
Dean Murdock $200
Vic Derman $200

Rob Fleming gave $100 to Dean Murdock

Monday, November 17, 2014

How did the incumbents do? An 86.5% re-election rate

We had 52 incumbent councilors run in 2014, 45 of them were re-elected. That is 86.5% re-election rate which is actually worse than has been the case in this region.

In 10 of the 13 municipalities all the incumbent councilors running were re-elected.

Three of four incumbents were defeated in North Saanich - in the previous 6 elections only four were defeated
Two of eight incumbents were defeated in Saanich this time, the first ones defeated since 2002 In the last seven elections only six have been defeated
Two of six incumbents were defeated in Esquimalt, the first since 2005. A total of six have been defeated in the last seven elections

1,557 people voted for David Shebib

Here is a table of how well he did in all 13 municipalities

Municipality Pct Vote Rank
Langford 12.98% 556 2/2
Highlands 8.05% 42 2/2
Colwood 3.33% 94 3/3
Metchosin 2.51% 39 3/3
Cent Saanich 1.80% 91 3/3
Saanich 1.63% 482 3/3
Oak Bay 1.47% 102 3/3
Sooke 0.65% 26 3/3
Esquimalt 0.57% 25 3/3
Nth Saanich 0.48% 23 4/4
Sidney 0.39% 15 5/5
Victoria 0.25% 62 7/8
TOTAL 1,557

The fact the David Shebib managed to get almost 13% of the vote and over 500 votes in Langford says to me there is a discontent with the current mayor. The very fact that close to 13% would be willing to vote for a clearly off the wall and not serious candidate says something about what people thing of Stew Young

The two municipalities where David Shebib did the worst were the ones where there were four serious candidates.

With 1,557 votes overall in the CRD David Shebib got more votes than a number of the people elected as mayor

Ken Williams Highlands 480
Steve Price Sidney 1,312
Joihn Ranns Metchosin 1,334
David Screech View Royal 1,336
Carol Hamilton Colwood 2,368
Alice Finall Nth Saanich 2,416
Maja Tait Sooke 2,527
Ryan Windsor Cent Saanich 2,998
Barb Desjardins Esquimalt 3,180
Nils Jensen Oak Bay 3,640
Stew Young Langford 3,727
Lisa Helps Victoria 9,200
Richard Atwell Saanich 14,178

Results of the Amalgamation Referendums

Results
Municipality Yes % No % Yes No
Saanich 88.5% 11.5% 21,437 2,780
Victoria 80.0% 20.0% 18,351 4.601
Central Saanich 70.7% 29.3% 3,588 1,489
Sidney 67.6% 32.4% 2,566 1,232
Esquimalt 67.5% 32.5% 2,905 1,404
North Saanich 62.5% 37.5% 2,881 1,727
Langford 51.6% 48.3% 2,222 2,209
Oak Bay 37.7% 61,2% 2,184 3,594
56,134 19,025

The Questions - they were rather varied across the region
Central Saanich
Should the District of Central Saanich petition the Province to fund a cost/benefit analysis of an amalgamation of Central Saanich, North Saanich and Sidney?
Esquimalt
Are you in favour of exploring the reduction of the number of municipalities within Greater Victoria through amalgamation with?
Langford
Are you in favour if the City of Langford being amalgamated into a larger regional muncipality?
North Saanich
Non-Binding Question: Are you in favour of a study, provincially funded, to investigate the feasibility, costs and implications of amalgamating the three municipalities on the Saanich Peninsula of Sidney, Central Saanich and North Saanich?
Oak Bay
Are you in favour of the District of Oak Bay being amalgamated into a larger regional municipality?
Saanich
Do you support Council initiating a community-based review of the governance structure and policies within Saanich and our partnerships within the Region?
Sidney
Non-Binding Question: Are you in favour of a provincially funded study to investigate the feasibility, costs and implications of amalgamating the three municipalities of the Saanich Peninsula?
Victoria
Are you in favour of reducing the number of municipalities in Greater Victoria through amalgamation?

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Voter Turnout in 2014 - still abysmal

Here is a table of the turnout ranked by best to worst in 2014

Municipality 2014 2011 2008
North Saanich 53.1 41.5 52.5
Sidney 43.0 31.0 36.5
Oak Bay 42.9 42.0 36.0
Sooke 41.5 41.9 40.1
Victoria 39.1 26.4 26.9
Metchosin 36.9 48.8 58.8
Saanich 36.2 25.4 21.0
Central Saanich 36.1 32.4 33.4
Esquimalt 30.3 18.0 26.9
Highlands 30.1 --- ???? - 2011 was an acclamation
View Royal 28.1 27.9 23.3
Colwood 25.5 26.8 27.0
Langford 19.0 14.0 22.9

Even with talk of a higher voter turnout, the numbers are not much better than in the past several elections. In eight of 12 municipalities this year was the best turnout of the last three elections

The biggest absolute increases were in Saanich and Victoria but still they were barely more than one third. Most people really were not engaged by the election.

We did see one municipality where voter turnout was over 50%, North Saanich.

In Esquimalt and North Saanich the large rise in turnout were caused because the mayors were no acclaimed.

Friday, November 14, 2014

Why I would vote for Carl Jensen in Central Saanich

I am running out of time to write up about all the people I think would be really good to see elected or re-elected in this region.

What can I say about Carl Jensen. He is smart, he has a vision that is not just Central Saanich, he goes out of his way to engage with the public all of the time, and overall he is just a positive person.

I would say so much more, but I am not allowed to write anything after today and there are a few more I want to get out. Please vote for Carl Jensen

Why Ryan Windsor for mayor of Central Saanich

Ryan is an astute and smart younger guy who has been on Central Saanich council for 18 months now. I have known Ryan for four or five years now and here are some the qualities I like in him:

He is a strong leader but in a quiet and collaborative way. I see him as mayor building the council into a strong team for Central Saanich
You know what his values are and they really matter to him, at the same time he is not an ideological partisan. I know he can easily cooperate across the political spectrum
He is pragmatic
He basis his decisions on solid evidence and will change his view if new evidence comes forward
He is willing to consider new ways of doing things, which is actually relatively rare on local councils.

I would say a lot more, but I had meant to get this written a couple weeks back but life and work have intervened. One final thought, if you were to ask who could be the first Green premier of BC, Ryan would be pick as the most likely.

If you are in Central Saanich, please vote for Ryan Windsor as mayor

Why the Rise in Advance Vote in Saanich and Esquimalt?

ESQUIMALT
Esquimalt first, the advance vote went from 423 in 2011 to 1077 this time, so why is that? This is for two reasons. First, voter turnout in Esquimalt was dismal in 2011 and second there was no mayor's race that time.

Here is the total votes in Esquimalt by election

2011 2,300
2008 3,427
2005 3,521

What you can see is that 2011 had a much lower voter turnout than what normally happened in Esquimalt,

The second factor is a well contested mayor's race. In 2011 Barb Desjardins was acclaimed so there was no race. A mayor's race not only increases voter turn out, but the way a good campaign for mayor is run normally means the candidate works hard to get as many of their supporters to advance vote as possible.

In my opinion these two factors explain the rise in advance vote in Esquimalt. The only factor at play is how strong the NDP machine behind John Ducker is. The NDP has a lot of names of friendlies in Esquimalt, enough he could win the election on those names alone. Did he get them out to vote?

SAANICH
Now we come to Saanich. In 2011 they had 1264 people advance vote and this year 4089 people. this looks like a HUGE increase, what happened? Is there some massive demand for change? Are the people in the streets with burning torches and pitchforks? I do not see it in the numbers.

What changed between 2011 and 2014 is that Saanich went 2 advance voting opportunities, both of them at City Hall, to eight opportunities this time at seven different locations. More chances to advance vote will mean more voters. Offering more locations to advance vote also means more people will vote, City Hall is not close to most people in Saanich.

Given the change I would have expected to see the advance vote to rise though with diminishing improvement with each new opportunity. So who are the people that normally advance vote?

There was time not so long ago when you could only advance vote if you had some reason you could not vote on election day. This is no longer the case and there has been a trend at all levels for more of the general population to vote in advance polls. The incremental increase seems to be about 15% between elections. If there had been no new chances to advance vote I would have expected about 1450 people in Saanich to have done so.

Advance voting has become a very important tool of well organized campaigns. The norm over the last 20 years has been that the bulk of people advance voting are hard core supporters of one of the campaigns. In the last 10 years every well run campaign has pushed hard to get as much of their IDed vote to advance vote as they could. The more of your supporters that advance vote, the more people you can reach and get out to vote on election day. Advance voters are also locked in, nothing at the last minute in the election can change the votes of those that have voted.

With only one location and two dates most campaigns could only convince the really hardcore supporters to go out and vote, but with the expansion to seven locations over five days this is a God send for well organized campaigns. The extra days and places makes it much easier to get a large portion of your supporters out to vote especially when you can geographically focus the campaign. With two normal campaigns getting the vote out in Saanich I would have expected the advance vote in 2014 to have been around 5000 people. If we had had two really strong campaigns with 400+ volunteers each I would have expected the advance vote number to 6000 to 7000.

We had 4089 people vote, not the 5000 as I would have expected. Where are the other close to 1000 voters? The only way I can reconcile this lower number with what should have happened is if one of the campaigns did not put much energy in getting their identified vote to go to the polls. Which one was not doing their job?

I know Frank Leonard's campaign is doing the old school thing of finding the voter and then getting them out to vote, much as he has always done. They got their vote out. It means I can only ascribe the missing voters to Richard Atwell's campaign not getting their people out to vote. It means Richard Atwell has a much harder task on election day to reach all his supporters and Frank Leonard has an easier task than in 2011 because so many more of his voters are already in the "bank".