Why I think Donald Galloway is the best person to the next MP for Victoria

There are several reasons why I am going to vote for Donald Galloway and it is not because I agree with him about everything or that I agree with the Green Party on everything.   My decision is really based on knowing that he has the sort of qualities that make for a good representative.

There are some basic qualities about him that appeal to me:

• He is a decent and intelligent man that listens to information and makes well thought out decisions based on data 
• He represents a change to politics in Canada not only because he is running as a Green but because he sincerely wants to do politics differently
• He is in my opinion the best placed candidate to be  an effective MP because of his work
• He works hard and sticks with what he is working on
• He speaks his mind
• He is a positive person
• He is not possessed with a large ego
• He is pragmatic and not dogmatic
• He would make a good dinner guest

None of the other candidates meet all these same qualities.

There is also one major policy issue which is very important to me and is a strength of Donald Galloway's - immigration and refugees.   Canada needs an internationally recognized expert on immigration and refugee law to be in our parliament.

Canada has made it too hard for people to come to this country.   We treat refugees like crap and honestly do nothing to proactively help them around the world.   We have had ongoing Liberal and Conservative governments that had done nothing to ease the restrictions on people coming to this country. We live on one planet and countries should not be using the arbitrary lines on maps to increase human suffering.

Donald Galloway helped to form the Canadian Association of Refugee Lawyers and is involved with the Canadian Association for Refugee and Forced Migration Studies.  This is the man Ottawa needs to make this issue more important.

I am passionate about this issue because it is personal,  I am the son of immigrants.   My parents were allowed to come to Canada in 1951 and 1952 but would never be allowed to come to Canada now.   They were DPs at the end of the war because they had been expelled from their homeland in 1939.   Displaced Persons was a convenient term invented after World War 2 to avoid calling them refugees.  They both were allowed to come to Canada in the early 1950s because Canada was willing to accept unskilled people coming from Europe.

Donald Galloway will make a very good MP for Victoria and I hope to see that he one that wins on November 26th.

(an offer to anyone else out there in the Victoria riding - if you want to write something about who you want to vote for and can do so in a positive manner, I will post it here unedited.  Email it to me at bernard@shama.ca)

Those that know me may know that my mother did manage to get herself declared a UN refugee in 1950 when she was 20 so she could get a Nansen Passport and go on holiday to Sweden.   My mother always thought laws were really only guidelines and should not get in her way if she wanted to do something.

A Curious Way to Campaign

Liberal candidate Paul Summerville has surprised me from the start with his focus in very negative way about sewage treatment in the campaign.   He seemed to be convinced that he would be able to use this as one issue that would set him apart from the other candidates and this would lead to him doing well in the by-election.    A federal by-election is not a one issue campaign but with his ongoing insistence about sewage treatment Paul Summerville seems to want to make it one issue campaign.

I was not convinced sewage treatment was a good core campaign platform when I first heard about it because I knew what the Green Party position was on the issue and it was not that dramatically different than Summerville's own, but this has not stopped Paul Summerville from trying to make the case that there is a dramatic difference between the two.   Frankly when I read the Green approach to the issue and Paul Summerville's, the Green one seems to have more though and consideration put into, certainly Donald Galloway is not jumping on the Hyperbole Express.

The campaign plan was also predicated on the idea that no Conservative Party candidate would speak out against the sewage treatment plant because the current government has offered money for the plan.  Conservative Dale Gann has now come out against the current plan.   Instead of taking some credit for creating the debate on the issue and getting Dale Gann to change his view, Paul Summerville posted a rather sarcastic, and frankly nasty piece, about Dale Gann choosing to be against sewage treatment.    How does a posting like that improve the quality of our politics in Canada?   How does it do anything to lead towards a country where excellence matters?

What we need in politics is more civility and respect, trying to make someone look bad for changing their mind does not fit into that category.   I read the post he did about Dale Gann and  sewage treatment and I see on no level at all how reporting a fictitious press conference by Stephen Harper in a sarcastic way does anything to improve things.   It is as if he would prefer that no Conservative think for themselves, express their own opinion or change their mind.

It is from Paul Summerville that I am seeing some of the most negative posting in this campaign in general such as:

• May's Mad Math - in this post he takes on Elizabeth May for wanting another MP and beyond that going after the Greens for issues related to natural resource policy
• Murray Rankin Makes His Position Clear on Rising Sewage Taxes, "It's Not My Problem!" - 
• The Endorsement - from October 27th about Mr Floatie endorsing Murray Rankin, but more importantly saying Rankin's credibility has been damaged because he is not actively opposing the sewage treatment plant.

Based on his writing and how he has campaigned in this election, I am not convinced that Paul Summerville is able to be an MP that will improve the quality of governance in Canada.

The reality is that there is little or no danger of him winning, at best he will come a distant third.   I expect he will see a further drop in Liberal Party support, the fifth election in a row to have that happen.

Elizabeth May on why people should vote for Donald Galloway

I like this video because it is not a slick central party campaign video, but a simple short and to the point explanation on why to vote for Green Donald Galloway in the current federal by-election.

It seems the candidates like to keep an eye on each other in the by-election

The offices of the four main candidates in the Victoria federal by-election are in two groupings rather close to each other.  In the last five federal elections I have lived in this riding for, this is the first time the campaign offices have been clustered so close together.

Where they are all the office are located in relation to each other

Green Party is at 622 Yates Street  and the Conservatives are one block further west at 546 Yates, the former NOOD store location.   The two locations are only 150 meters apart.   Both parties have some of the nicest campaign offices I have ever seen.

The Conservatives have a huge amount of space and spent some money on decorating it, though I am not sure the point of the big blue arch.   The space still looks empty and cavernous.

The Green offices are in an old clothing store and they have set it up to be inviting for the public to come in and hang out.   The space size is also right that with only a dozen people in it it can look very busy and full.

The locations are pretty good ones for walk by traffic, though I think the Green location is a bit better.   When I have stopped in there have always been people walking in off of the street, something I have rarely seen.

The Conservatives and Greens are both on lower Yates Street, 150 meters apart

The NDP are located at 1515 Cook Street while the Liberals are kitty corner at 1075 Pandora Street - only 120 meters away.

The NDP offices look the most like a traditional campaign office - everything is jury rigged to work, phone cables are strung from the ceiling, and people have made cubicles from cardboard.   This is the classic campaign war room.  The NDP office was the busiest yesterday afternoon, though only marginally more than the Greens.

The Liberals are in an old real estate office and of the four I visited offices yesterday afternoon, it looked by far the quietest.

The NDP and Liberals are both on the Corner of Cook and Pandora - 120 meters apart

A first pass at predicting the Victoria by-election

We are five days into the Victoria by-election and I am actually amazed at how quiet things are.  I thought I would take a moment and make an estimate of how the by-election might play out.

By-elections are very hard to predict for many reasons.   We do not have local polling data, there is no national campaign going on, and the turnout will be much lower.    The easiest prediction I can make is that I am reasonably certain that Murray Ranking of the NDP will win.

The Candidates
Murray Rankin is a respectable NDP candidate but he is not Denise Savoie.   The public do not know him and have no idea how good an MP he will make.    Denise was a popular MP even with a lot of people that do not support the NDP - if Patrick Hunt, a friend and someone I have lot of time for, had not been running 2011 I would have voted for Denise.

Murray Rankin will draw fewer supporters than Denise did.  I think we need to look to 2004 and 2006 for guidance for the NDP vote.

Dale Gann for the Conservatives is a bit better known locally than Patrick Hunt was in the 2011 election, but not enough to make much difference to the election in my opinion.

Paul Summerville has some following but lacks the degree of local recognition that former Oak Bay mayor Chris Causton had in the 2011 election.   The Liberals are down a bit from the candidate perspective.

Donald Galloway is definitely a serious step up for the Greens in Victoria.   As much as Jared Giesbrecht, Adam Saab and Ariel Lade were great guys, they went into the elections really as complete unknowns with no standing to boost the Greens.   Donald Galloway certainly will increase the Green vote.

The Money
In the last four elections the NDP, Conservatives and Liberals have all basically spent the limit of what they were allowed to other than the Liberals in 2008.  The Greens have spent less than half of what they are allowed to.

This time all four parties are likely to spend the limit of what is allowed.   This is only an electoral advantage for the Greens as things have not changed for the other three.

Polling
We have no local polling but there has been national polling which gives us some idea of the mood in BC.    In the 2011 election the BC result was CPC 45.5%, NDP 32.5%, Liberals 13.4% and Greens 7.7%.    The latest polling in BC seems to indicate the Conservatives are down from the election, the NDP and Greens up marginally, and the Liberals up moderately.

Elizabeth May
She is popular locally and it is rubbing off on Donald Galloway

Taking these factors into account here is my current estimate

1. Murray Rankin - NDP   13,500  37.5%
2. Donald Galloway - Green  8500 23.6%
3. Paul Summerville - Liberal  8000  22.2%
4. Dale Gann - Conservative 6500  18.1%

Jumping from fourth to second may seem like a stretch for the Greens, but they have the most factors working in their favour.

Victoria Federal Riding - history of money raised and number of donors

I thought it might be interesting to see how the four major parties have done over the years in raising money and the number of donors they have had.   It gives a bit of a picture of how well organized the local organization is.    This data comes from Pundits' Guide.

	NDP $	NDP Donors	CPC $	CPC Donors	Lib $	Lib Donors	Green $	Green Donors
2011 GE	$76,674.00	223	$93,955.00	23	$85,019.45	86	$33,884.00	98
2010	$14,480.00	144	$30,785.00	226	$23,769.00	226	$9,186.00	27
2009	$7,535.00	40	$24,855.00	186	$8,008.00	162	$5,980.00	12
2008	$13,321.00	176	$38,415.00	269	$39,377.00	256	$11,040.00	36
2008 GE	$80,221.82	232	$77,869.35	146	$53,360.00	28	$23,636.47	83
2007	$11,048.00	118	$16,349.00	221	$29,053.00	384	$6,300.00	12
2006	$9,972.00	61	$18,812.00	149	$5,445.00	61	$4,236.00	67
2006 GE	$75,202.02	754	$103,167.40	247	$23,482.56	56	$25,288.78	197
2005	$12,105.00	953	$63,226.00	1556	$10,760.00	214	$3,341.00	15
2004	$17,283.00	878	$29,315.00	196	$22,620.00	144	$7,796.00	106
2004 GE	$59,609.02	639	$107,948.78	294	$92,597.50	129	$23,122.01	37
TOTAL	$377,450.86	4218	$604,697.53	3513	$393,491.51	1746	$153,810.26	690

It is clear that the Conservatives have been the best party at raising money and has in the past done well with total donors in most years.  

The NDP looks weak between elections but has in four elections been the party with the most donors.    I am not sure what happened between 2006 and 2007 but there is a dramatic fall in donors for the NDP.

The Liberals have had a mixed history, some good years and some bad.  In money raised since 2004 they are slightly ahead of the NDP but when it comes to donors they are far behind.

The Greens are clearly the number four party in terms of donors and money raised.

What does this all tell us, I am not sure.  I had hoped before I pulled the data together it would give some way to understand which party has the advantage in the by-election.   The one thing that I can say, which I knew already, is that the Greens are starting in 4th place in the race.

An open-letter from NDP MLAs Rob Fleming, Maurine Karagianis, and Lana Popham

This is one of the better and more impressive endorsements I have seen for a candidate in almost any race.  I am reposting it here because these days stuff on Facebook disappears into the ether very quickly and is rarely seen again.  I also like the positive sounding nature of the letter, I really do want to see a more positive approach to politics.

by Lana Popham on Friday, October 12, 2012 at 12:49pm ·
Dear Friend,

On October 14, New Democrats will come together to nominate the candidate to succeed our retiring Victoria Member of Parliament, Denise Savoie.

The nomination race has attracted an exceptional group of contenders.  As Tuesday’s all-candidates' debate demonstrated, they are New Democrats with strong ties to the community, a long history of service to our party, and an unflinching commitment to the values we share.

In our view, Murray Rankin stands out as the best choice. We’d like to tell you why.
So many of you have told us how impressed you were with his performance in the debate. We were not surprised.  We have seen Murray in action leading BC NDP’s legal team fighting to stop the Enbridge pipeline. Murray has combined his profound commitment to sustainability and social justice with a deep understanding of the constitutional, legal, and environmental issues at stake.

It’s a passion and dedication Murray has nurtured his entire life. He arrived in Victoria more than 35 years ago, and got to work making our community a better place.

Murray was Chair of The Land Conservancy, and was instrumental in protecting the Sooke Potholes. He has mentored hundreds of young people as Community Chair of the University of Victoria’s Environmental Law Centre. As founding director of BC’s Public Interest Advocacy Centre, Murray has fought for social justice.  He has stood shoulder-to-shoulder with First Nations.  His work in the House of Commons was recognized with its Award of Merit.  Murray is ready to hit the ground running.

Murray’s long involvement in our party and our community tells us that he knows the issues and that he will fight for our values. His energy and optimism will help bring new people to the party, particularly young people.

He will help unite progressive voters in Victoria, including Green Party voters and progressive Liberals. Murray is fluently bilingual, and we are confident in his ability to strengthen our party here at home, expand on gains across the country, and build bridges to our expanding Quebec caucus.

It’s an exciting time to be a New Democrat. In BC, we are poised to fight and win the next provincial election. On the federal stage, Thomas Mulcair and our team are showing what a real opposition can do and offering Canadians a national progressive alternative.

As a bilingual BC New Democrat with deep ties to our community and a passion for a caring, sustainable and just Canada, Murray Rankin is just the kind of person we need to build on the momentum of change.

The Nomination Meeting will be held on Sunday October 14 at 1 PM at the Student Union Building at the University of Victoria.  We hope to see you there!  If you have any questions for Murray, please check his website www.MurrayRankinNDP.ca or contact him directly by email at Murray@MurrayRankinNDP.ca or on his phone at (250) 858-4238.

Sincerely Yours,
Rob Fleming, MLA Victoria-Swan Lake, Maurine Karagianis, MLA Esquimalt-Royal Roads, Lana Popham, MLA Saanich South

Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/murrayrankinndp

Donald Galloway will be the Green candidate

There is a statement up on the website for Trevor Moat explaining what happened on Saturday.   The vote was a tie on Saturday and he won based on a coin toss.  He has now decided to step down in favour of Donald Galloway.

The text of the release from Trevor Moat:


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

2012 October 01

I am most grateful for the confidence shown in me by the membership of the Green Party of Canada in Victoria.

Although I was declared the winning candidate in the race, I did not receive the majority of the vote at the nomination meeting as I had sought. After my acceptance speech I was notified that the vote had been split exactly 50/50 between Donald Galloway and me, and that the decision in favour of my nomination had been reached by coin toss, in accordance with the rules to which we had both subscribed.  I requested time to reflect on this unprecedented and unanticipated result to determine what would be best for the Green Party, and for me, in light of learning that my nomination was not based on a numerical majority.

I stated in the first words of my nomination speech that I entered the race with the sole intention of seeing a Green Party candidate from Victoria elected to the House of Commons in this by-election. To that end I remain fully committed.

I have reached the conclusion that Donald Galloway is best-positioned to win this important contest. He has earned my full support in reaching that objective from this point forward.

Donald Galloway has a fully established team of volunteers in-place; he has been an advisor to the Green Party of Canada for some time and is well-acquainted with the organization and with the workings of government; he is endorsed by many leading names in academic circles and in the environmental movement; he’s well-known nationally as an expert in immigration and human rights law.

I share Donald’s passionate commitment to defeat the present federal government and to change the way in which our governments are elected. I urge all members who voted for me in the recent Nomination Meeting – and the people of Victoria generally – to galvanize their support with mine behind Donald Galloway’s campaign. A Green Party sign is posted proudly in our front yard.

I have signed up at http://www.donaldgalloway.ca/form/volunteer  to offer my assistance to win this very important race for Victoria, and for Canada. I urge you to do the same. The opportunity has never been better – nor more vital – to Turn Victoria Green.

- 30 -

Trevor Moat, Green Party Nominee for the Victoria Federal by-election

(update from October 1st, Trevor Moat has stepped down as the candidate.  The vote was a tie on Saturday and decided by a coin toss.)
I have to admit I am surprised to hear that Trevor Moat defeated Donald Galloway for the Green party nomination for the Victoria by-election.

The party members voted yesterday and from reports I hear the turn out was low and that Trevor gave a much better speech than Donald.    The Greens went to raise $9,000 for Trevor's election campaign afterwards which is good for them as they will need $100k+ to have any chance of winning.

From everything I had heard, Donald Galloway was the preferred choice of the leader and was the sort of candidate that the media would take seriously as a threat because his background and his stellar set of endorsements.   I. like almost everyone else, assumed he would win hands down.   He does not seem to have taken the nomination vote seriously and not made sure he had 150 to 200 supporters in the seats ready to vote for him.

This is a classic case where a guy looks great on paper but is just not ready to get into politics because he lacks all the actual skills needed to win an election.   The Greens are much better off with Trevor Moat as the candidate even if it looks very unlikely that they could win with him.   When you have a favoured candidate that can not win a low turnout nomination you just have thank the election gods that they saved you from a humiliating election campaign.

I think the NDP will be happier running against Trevor Moat than Donald Galloway, on paper it looks like they dodged a bullet.   I also think the Liberals will be happier because the Greens now have the very hard task to sell people on the narrative that they are ahead of the Liberals in support.   The Liberals are now "comfortably" the #3 party in the race.

What do the Greens do now?   They need major league endorsements of Trevor Moat.   They need a fulltime campaign manager that knows how to win, if they were smart they would be on the phone to American Green Lynne Serpe and get her to come up here now.   They also need to have a very robust ground campaign, Trevor Moat needs to shake every hand in the riding twice and not sleep till after the by-election.

Honestly, unless I see something to tell me otherwise, I think the Greens will only do marginally better than in 2011.

Murray Rankin Meet and Greet Last Night

I decided to check out the Murray Rankin meet and greet last night at the Canoe Club.   I am not a New Democrat but decided to show up anyway because I do not know who I will vote for in the by-election and the best way for me to decide is meet as many of the potential candidates in person.

About 60 people showed up last night to meet Murray Rankin and hear him talk.   He was clearly talking to an NDP crowd and hitting the issues and points that matter for them which is a less than ideal world to understand who he is as a person.

I recognized a few people in the crowd, though there were people I had expected to see there that were not there.   This is UBCM week in Victoria so I had expected to see some councilors and mayors for up island and the lower mainland but they were not there.  I had also expected to see MLAs Rob Fleming, Lana Popham and Maurine Karagianis there.  I had expected one of the MLAs to introduce him.  Their absence makes me wonder about the strength of his campaign.

I did talk with Victoria's own Über-Churchill fan Chris Gainor who I have run into at events and things over the last couple of decades.   Chris is one of the people backing Murray Rankin.   He was sharing a table with former NDP MP Dick Proctor and his wife both of whom were there to decide who they would back.  I think it was a shame that Dick was not re-elected as an MP in 2004 because he seemed to understand the role of an MP and worked hard at it.

What I take from Murray Rankin talking is that the environment and societal equality are the issues that drive him.   When he moved off of these issues he talked well but the passion was not there, or in the case of foreign policy there was no depth in what he said.   There was also a lot of Harper bashing, which is par for the course in a nomination campaign because you can be negative about the "enemy" but should not be so about your own people you are competing against.  I personally find the Harper bashing boring and really only filler in a talk.

In politics so many people are convinced that negative campaigning works to win elections but why then is this not used in nomination campaigns?    In the nomination you are in an internal partisan race with people from your party so the idea of negative campaigning should work but it is not used.   The reason it is not used, which is the same reason it is not generally used in product advertising, is that it really does not work to anyone's benefit.  If it does help in the short term there is a serious harm in the medium and long term that is much worse.

Murray Rankin addressed why he was the best choice for the NDP over Elizabeth Cull or Charley Beresford which was interesting to hear.    His approach was to focus on a couple of things he could do better than the others and not what was wrong with Cull or Beresford.  He pointed out that he speaks fluent French and this is very relevant in a caucus where the majority of members speak French as a first language.  He has also has worked in Ottawa and is on the forefront of the Northern Gateway issue.

If the goal is to have someone going to Ottawa and be an effective member of the NDP caucus, by far I think Murray Rankin is that person.   My ultimate decision will be made based on which person I think will make the best MP in Ottawa.

The NDP Nomination Race - 1300 party members will likely chose our next MP

We have three strong candidates in the race to be the NDP nominee in the Victoria Federal by-election and there is still one more strong candidate out there considering running who will make a decision over the weekend.   It will be an interesting race and will almost all happen outside of the view of the public.

The date of the nomination meeting is October 14th, which as far as I understand the rules, means you have to have been a member by mid July to be eligible to vote.   This is relevant because it means no one can do any mass sign up of members in the lead up to the nomination.  It is about convincing the existing members to support you.

So how many members are there?   The membership of the BC NDP was 38,735 in February of this year, I assume it has not dropped much since then.  If that membership is divided roughly equally across the province there should be about  1,000 members locally.  If we pro-rate that based on ridings federally and provincially that are held by the NDP having higher memberships, Victoria should have between 1250 and 1400 members, I am going call it 1300 for simplicity   

These 1300 members will be the ones to choose the NDP candidate for the by-election.   If we assume that turn out will be between 50% and 60%, it will take around 350 to 375 votes to win the nomination.   So which of the candidates can get those votes?

Murray Rankin has the backing of many people but most importantly Michael Eso of the Victoria Labour Council, MLA Rob Fleming and Moe Sihota.   All three of them have strong connections to the members of the Victoria federal riding membership.  Each one them should be able to bring votes to the table.  Yes his other endorsements are impressive, but this race is about getting members to vote and it is the personal connections built up over years that matter.

Elizabeth Cull has John Horgan and Marianne Alto who both have reasons to know a good chunk of the membership in the riding.  Elizabeth Cull also has a stronger personal knowledge of campaigning on the ground.  I am not convinced the three of them have as much local member knowledge as Team Rankin does.

Charley Beresford has an impressive endorsement in the form of Michael Byers but she does not seem to have anyone with the on ground knowledge of the membership in Victoria that she needs to win.   She needs someone like Erik Kaye to come board with her to have any chance at all.

At this point I would put the advantage in the race with Murray Rankin because I think Eso, Fleming and Sihota to bring at least 250 votes to him.

Keeping in mind that is very hard to be certain of much when it comes to an internal party nomination, here is my current estimate of the vote:

• Murray Rankin  380
• Elizabeth Cull 300 
• Charley Beresford 60 
• Total vote 740

Yes, I think that Murray Rankin will win on the first ballot.

If the fourth candidate does enter I see the vote as:

• Murray Rankin  350
• Elizabeth Cull 280
• Candidate X 100
• Charley Beresford 50
• Total vote 780

If Candidate X runs, I think it will go to second ballot but Murray Rankin will still win because he will be close to winning on the first ballot.

As I can glean more information I will post here and update what I think will happen in the nomination.

Green Party by-election nominee bios

(I got this via my email and because I can not find anything for Trevor Moat of Mark Loria online about why they are running, I thought I would post this here for all to see)

Donald Galloway
Donald Galloway was born in Edinburgh, Scotland. He was educated at Edinburgh University where he studied Law and Philosophy. On graduation, he was awarded a full scholarship to pursue graduate studies at Harvard Law School. In 1975, he immigrated to Canada and was appointed as an Assistant Professor of Law at Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario. He moved to British Columbia in 1989 and was a Visiting Professor at the University of Victoria for two years, before being appointed as a Professor of Law.  In 1998, he was appointed to the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada and served as a member for three years before returning to teaching.  He has been the recipient of the Bora Laskin National Fellowship in Human Rights Research and has authored and co-authored two texts on Immigration Law. He teaches Tort Law and Immigration and Citizenship Law.

For two years, he served as Southern Director of the Akitsiraq Law School, a program of legal studies run by the University of Victoria in Iqaluit, Nunavut. He has been a visiting scholar at McGill University and the European University Institute, in Italy. He was the founding President of the Canadian Association of Refugee and Forced Migration Studies and is currently a member of the executive of the Canadian Association of Refugee Lawyers.Donald is married and has a twelve year old daughter.

Trevor Moat
Trevor Moat was born on Saltspring Island, and raised in rural farm environments until his graduation from high school in Victoria. Trevor’s parents, having endured challenging circumstances through their long lives, instilled core values and convictions in him that have deepened steadily through his own life experience: commitment, honesty, kindness, political awareness, and active participation in public affairs.

Diverse employment experiences in BC and Alberta and diplomas in Mechanical and Electronics Technology provided a solid foundation for Trevor’s degree in Electrical Engineering, conferred by Lakehead University in 1992. He earned his Masters degree in Electronics and Systems Engineering at Carleton University in 1997 after serving with Nortel/BNR and the NRC/CNRC at various facilities near Ottawa.

While at Carleton, he won first-place in the inaugural “Magna for Canada” scholarship competition, culminating in a two-year leadership position at Magna International, one of the world’s foremost manufacturing firms. Trevor then spent seven highly productive years in telecommunications engineering at SOMA Networks in Toronto, and presented numerous world-class concerts for audiences of up to 1000 people in the Toronto area.

Today, Trevor is a father, a step-father and life-partner, and a self-employed Engineering Project Manager in Victoria’s vibrant high-technology sector. He is an owner/renovator of several heritage properties, and occasional organizer of finer musical concerts in and near Victoria. He has been a member of the James Bay Neighbourhood Association since 2009, and was elected to the JBNA Board in 2011. He is serving his third year on the Board of www.earlymusicsocietyoftheislands.ca, and is currently the Society’s Vice President.

The Green Party of Canada, Trevor believes, offers the soundest platform from which positive change can be effected. His experience, values and circumstances lead him to embrace the challenges ahead fully in heart, mind, and being as his life’s next chapter opens.

Mark Loria
Mark Loria is an artist, athlete, arts and culture advocate, and arts fundraiser and director with strong ties in the Victoria arts and business communities. Mark has spent the last 10 years in senior not-for-profit roles in British Columbia and Australia since graduating with an Arts Management Certificate from Capilano University. Mark also holds a Bachelor's Degree in Fine Art (Visual Art) from the University of Calgary. Through his professional positions in Victoria, including Director of Development roles at both the Art Gallery of Greater Victoria and the Victoria Conservatory of Music, Mark has gained a strong understanding of youth, education, and arts and culture needs in the Capital Region. He also brings a strong international experience spending three years in Brisbane, Australia as the General Manager of the Institute of Modern Art as well as a commissioned artist in Arezzo, Italy for the past year.

Mark is also a committed volunteer with many years experience as a community youth and university basketball coach and with recent leadership committee positions with Open Space Arts Society, Royal Roads University, and Tourism Victoria.

A committed environmentalist, Mark has been a vegan and fully green commuter for the past 16 years, and a consummate recycler for the past 20. Through composting, reusing, and recycling, his family of six generates only one small bag of waste monthly. Not only supporting a vegan diet, Mark advocates a vegan lifestyle, using little to no animal-derived products.

Mark believes in the future of the Green Party in Canada and his passion for the environment has prompted him to live his mantra – ‘lead by example’. As a father of four, he wants to make sure that our planet is balanced and healthy for future generations. Mark moved to Victoria with his family in 2007 and resides in Fernwood.

Murray Rankin has some serious weight behind his candidacy

Murray Rankin is interested in being the NDP candidate in the Victoria by-election and he is coming to the race with a lot of strong support.   Very importantly Guy Dauncey and John Fryer are backing him which is a huge blow for the Greens.

It is an impressive list but not yet a complete knock out for all of the competition, but with teh nomination on October 14th it could be very shortly.

NDP MLAs - only Carole James is not on the list
Rob Flemning
Lana Popham
John Horgan
Maurine Karagianis

Former MLAs
Moe Sihota
Colin Gableman
Ian Waddell

Past NDP staffers
Chris Gainor
John Heaney
Doug McArthur
Jim Rutkowski

Other bigger names
Miles Richardson
Guy Dauncey
Michael Eso
John Fryer - he was campaign manager for Elizabeth May in Saanich-Gulf Islands but stepped down before the election.  He also ran for the federal Green council in 2010 and was elected as the council member for BC.
Robert Mitchell

I do not see any local councilors and the list for former MLAs from this region could include a lot more people 

Paul Summerville - first person actively trying to get a nomination for the Victoria by-election

Economist Paul Summerville has announced on his website that he is actively seeking the Liberal nomination for the Victoria by-election.

Paul Summerville has run for parliament once before in 2006 but that time as a star candidate for the NDP.   In that election he ran in the Toronto riding of St Paul's and came a distant third with less than 20% of the vote.  As a star NDP candidate he received national attention and he was expected to do better than he did.

Among certain political circles he is reasonably well known, but as a person in Victoria he is not really known well at all.  He teaches at UVic and  does live on 10 Mile Point which is still within the Victoria riding.

Given that he is interested in the nomination I really do not expect anyone else to step forward for the Liberals.

The Greens and the Victoria Federal Riding

If I were looking around the country for a riding that could be won by the Greens one of the ones on the top of my list would be Victoria.    Over the last six elections Victoria has been one of the best results for the Greens in each election.   The only other riding in the country that has had the same degree of consistent success isSaanich-Gulf Islands.  The next tier includes ridings such as Calgary Centre, British Columbia Southern Interior, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Okanagan-Shuswap, Wildrose and Dufferin Caledon.

The table shows how the Victoria riding did in each of the last elections and how it placed among the Green ridings:

Year        Vic %  Grn Nat Avg

2011 -  6th 11.61% 3.91%

2008 - 31st 10.55% 6.78%

2006 - 13th  8.13% 4.48%

2004 -  2nd 11.69% 4.29%

2000 -  2nd  5.86% 0.81% (2.20% avg in the ridings where Greens ran) (leader Joan Russow running)

1997 -  2nd  5.37% 0.43% (1.61% avg in the ridings where Greens ran) (leader Joan Russow running)

The table shows that Victoria has consistently been more supportive of the Greens than almost anywhere else in the country.   The worst finish was still just on the cusp of one of the top 10% of all Green party results in the country.   Victoria has also either been the best or second best Green result on the Island.

 Some of the ridings where the Greens have often had some of their best results have been in places where the seat was a very safe Conservative one such as Wildrose, Calgary Centre or Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound.   These are ridings where the NDP and Liberals not really trying at all and a distant second place is still not all close to winning.  

Victoria is a riding where other than in 2011 no one has been winning with a majority of the votes.  In 1997 and 2004 the riding was won by the Liberals with only 35% of the vote. Victoria has the potential to be a three or four way race which means the Greens do not need to grow as much as elsewhere to win.

I have thought for a long time that Victoria would be an easier riding for the Greens to win than Saanich-Gulf Islands.  Now with a win in the neighbouring riding, I think the odds of the Greens winning Victoria is higher.

Parties win seats when their support becomes concentrated.   Vancouver Island in general has been good to the Greens and that is not just because Elizabeth May won Saanich-Gulf Islands in 2011.   

In the last four elections all six island ridings have been among the top 33% of Green results in the country.  In 2004 they were in all in the top 10%.  In the last six elections there was only one time in one riding they did not run a candidate.

How each riding ranked among Green results in each election.

2011 

• Saanich Gulf Islands - won by Elizabeth May
• Victoria 6th 
• Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca 13th  
• Nanaimo-Cowichan 15th  
• Nanaimo-Alberni 20th
• Vancouver Island North 49th

2008

• Nanaimo Alberni 17th  
• Victoria 31st
• Saanich-Gulf Islands 33rd
• Nanaimo Cowichan 47th
• Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca 78th
• Vancouver Island North 86th

2006

• Saanich-Gulf Islands 9th  
• Victoria 13th 
• Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca 55th
• Nanaimo-Alberni 68th
• Nanaimo-Cowichan 83rd
• Vancouver Island North 97th

2004

• Saanich-Gulf Islands 1st 
• Victoria 2nd  
• Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca 6th  
• Vancouver Island North 8th 
• Nanaimo-Alberni 15th
• Nanaimi-Cowichan 27th 

2000 - only 111 out of 301 ridings had Green candidates

• Victoria 2nd 
• Saanich-Gulf Islands 3rd 
• Vancouver Island North 4th  
• Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca 9th  
• Nanaimo-Cowichan 31st
• Nanaimo-Alberni No Green

1997 - only 79 out of 295 ridings had Green candidates

• Victoria 2nd  
• Vancouver Island North 5th 
• Saanich-Gulf Islands 8th 
• Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca 10th  
• Nanaimo-Cowichan 18th  
• Nanaimo-Alberni 37th

Denise Savoie Resigns - Victoria Federal by-election coming

Denise Savoie, who has been the the NDP MP for Victoria since 2006, resigned today.  This means we will have a local by-election within six.  Odds are the Victoria by-election will be held at the same time as one for Calgary-Centre and Durham.   Here is some background history of the way the riding has voted.

In the last 14 elections the NDP has won 4, the Liberals 5 and the PCs 5.  The NDP has come second 4 times, the Conservatives and predecessors 7 times and the Liberals 3 times.

In 1988, 1993 and 1997 the combine right wing vote was larger than the MP who won the election.

Year    NDP         Conservative    Liberal      Green
2011 30,679 50.78% 14,275 23.63%  8,448 13.98% 7,015 11.61%
2008 26,443 44.61% 16,337 27.56% 10,006 16.88% 6,252 10.55%
2006 23,839 38.46% 15,249 24.60% 17,056 27.62% 5,036  8.13%  
2004 18,903 31.08% 12,708 21.83% 20,398 35.04% 6,807 11.69%  93-00 PC 88 Reform
2000  7,243 13.01% 16,502 29.66% 23,730 42.65% 3,254  5.86% 3,629  6.52%
1997 11,419 21.89% 15,393 29.51% 18,130 34.75% 2,805  5.37% 3,589  6.88%
1993  8,091 14.04% 15,891 27.73% 21,402 37.14% 1,125  1.95% 5,982 10.38% 
1988 22,399 37.97% 17,660 29.93% 12,617 21.39% 1,037  1.76% 4,956  8.40% 
1984 20,480 38.60% 24,588 46.34%  6,702 12.63%   575  1.08%
1980 17,088 34.32% 25,068 50.34%  7,145 14.35%
1979 15,344 29.93% 28,058 54.74%  7,766 15.15%
1974  7,108 14.69% 26,771 45.34% 14,289 29.54%  SoCred
1972 11,192 23.26% 22,842 47.48% 12,264 25.49% 1,173 2.44%
1968  9,414 22.46% 13,578 32.29% 18,401 43.90%
(in 1993 4,034 7.00% voted for the National Party)

Only three times in 14 elections did the MP win a majority of the votes on the other hand five of the last seven elections saw the MP elected with less than 40% of the vote.

Also of interest is the strength of the Greens in Victoria.   Since 1997 Victoria has been one of their best results nationwide, even the results for 1984, 88 and 93 were among the best for the party anywhere in the country.   The CRD is also home to the largest concentration of Green volunteers in Canada.

Of all the elections, only 1988, 1997, and 2004 were close elections.

What will happen in the by-election?   Without knowing when it is and who is running it is hard to know but I will make a stab at it.

The Conservatives have enough money to run the election now and should be able to take close to 30% of the vote.    

The Greens have shown that in a focused campaign they can take 30% of the vote 

The riding is more NDP than anything else, but because it has all of Oak Bay and Cadboro Bay, it is not a slam dunk for the party.   I think 35% is reasonable as a starting point for the NDP.

The Federal Liberal party is in complete disarray in BC and are unlikely to get a star candidate like they had in the 2011 election.   Realistically the Liberals will manage around 10% of the vote.

My best guess at the ranges possible for each party:

• NDP 32-38%
• Greens 25-32%
• Conservatives 23-30%
• Liberal 7-10% 
• CAP 1% - I expect the leader Christopher Porter to run in the by-election

Much depends on who the major three parties find as candidates, the default is a much reduced NDP win, but a star running for the Greens like say Robert Bateman or Guy Dauncey could make it possible for them to win.   There are also some better know members of the business community that could win this riding for the Conservatives.

If I were to guess who most likely be the NDP candidate, the following names come to mind - Carole James, Maurine Karagianis, Marianne Alto, Dean Fortin, and Jessica Van der Veen.  Possibly Ben Isitt.