Alan Lowe has let people know that he will not be running for office again in the next election. He has been mayor now since 1999 and generally been a decent and non controversial mayor. He has had some vision for the city and has not been bogged down by ego or incompetence. Where will he go from here? I am not certain and I am not sure it really matters. He would likely make a good MLA or MP, but that is after the next municipal elections.
The mayor of the city of Victoria is the most important political position in this region. Even though Saanich has a greater population, it is the mayor of Victoria that speaks for the region. No MLA or MP holds as much weight as representative of the region as Victoria's mayor.
The question now becomes who will run for the job? I thought it was an error on Rob Flemming's part that he did not run for mayor of Victoria in 2005. Sitting on the opposition benches was a less than wise move for him. He could have won in 2005, Alan Lowe was challenged by Ben Isitt and did not do nearly as well as he should have. A few terms in the mayors chair and Rob Flemming could have developed the experience and skills to be a strong MLA or MP, he would have gone into any race as a star. Instead of this he is one more forgettable opposition MLA.
Who might run in 2008 for the mayor's seat? I think Dean Fortin is the obvious choice from the left side of the spectrum - one hopes the left is done with the insurgency campaign of Ben Isitt. There are no other obvisous names on the left that I can think of that might run.
Some other people I think would be interesting ones to see run.
Bruce Hallsor - I have seen him work with people from all political stripes and he would make a great mayor. Bruce is honest, diplomatic and patient.
Jim Legh - Yes, another lawyer. Jim has a lot of passion and vision for Victoria.
Chris Coleman - He has been on council for some years now and I like his approach to community engagement. He can work with people from all political stripes and has some real vision for the city.
Robin Adair - I see him coming into the race as the voice for the business community if he does. I am not sure he has all the skills needed to be a mayor on a council that is likely to be split left and right with some people on the council with many years experience on it.
Art Aylesworth - Former CEO of Carmanah Technologies. I can see him being courted as a star, but I do not know enough about him to know if he has the experience to skills needed to be mayor.
Russ Courtnall - He has been courted by the right in Victoria several times to consider making a run for office. Ottawa was ruled out by him because of all the travel. Why not mayor?
More musing on who might run and who might make a good mayor in the next months.
Thursday, December 06, 2007
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
The cost of housing
The price to buy a house in Victoria remains high and still seems to be climbing, though much slower than before.
For the few months the median price for a house in greater Victoria has hovered at around $510 000 and the average price has been in the $570 000 range. Condos are closing in on $300 000. What this means is that the cost to buy a house has become unrealistic for many people. The first time home buyer has to look at the bottom end of the condo market.
You can get into an older 2 bedroom condo for about $220 000. Assuming you get a low equity mortgage, you are looking at payments of about $1500 a month. Add to that another $100 a month in property tax and $200 in condo fees, you will be paying about $1800 a month for this place. A couple where both are making about $45 000 a year means a take home pay of about $5500 a month. The $1800 is about 1/3 of their take home pay each month.
If you want to get into the cheapest house available, you are looking at about $370 000 to buy anything. This would mean a monthly mortgage payment of $2500 a month over 25 years - if you go to 40 years you can reduce this to $2200 a month. Add to this your property taxes and other municipal fees and you get to a monthly housing cost of $2600 to $2900 a month. This speaks to the need to have a take home income of $7500 to $9000 range or a gross annual income of about $70 000 each for a couple.
This places houses outside of the range of new buyers in this region.
Meanwhile the rental market in this city has become dire. There are simply many more potential renters than houses to rent. Rents are rising and landlords have no trouble getting people willing to pay the higher rents. To rent a house is going to cost you about $1800 a month in this city if you can find one. Yes, this makes it affordable for a working couple, but it really does not work for single earner families.
Getting a job paying $12 an hour is easy in this city. You would earn about $22 000 a year at that rate. The rent for a house would be almost that much. You can rent an apartment for somewhere in the range of $700 a month. If you rent something like that and are earning $12 per hour, you are left with about $1000 a month to spend.
Housing is a problem and will remain a problem in this city unless there is a dramatic increase in the amount of housing stock available. I can see all the signs that the real estate market has topped out. I expect it will begin to decline over 2008 and take a bigger drop in 2009. This might open up the market in the city.
For the few months the median price for a house in greater Victoria has hovered at around $510 000 and the average price has been in the $570 000 range. Condos are closing in on $300 000. What this means is that the cost to buy a house has become unrealistic for many people. The first time home buyer has to look at the bottom end of the condo market.
You can get into an older 2 bedroom condo for about $220 000. Assuming you get a low equity mortgage, you are looking at payments of about $1500 a month. Add to that another $100 a month in property tax and $200 in condo fees, you will be paying about $1800 a month for this place. A couple where both are making about $45 000 a year means a take home pay of about $5500 a month. The $1800 is about 1/3 of their take home pay each month.
If you want to get into the cheapest house available, you are looking at about $370 000 to buy anything. This would mean a monthly mortgage payment of $2500 a month over 25 years - if you go to 40 years you can reduce this to $2200 a month. Add to this your property taxes and other municipal fees and you get to a monthly housing cost of $2600 to $2900 a month. This speaks to the need to have a take home income of $7500 to $9000 range or a gross annual income of about $70 000 each for a couple.
This places houses outside of the range of new buyers in this region.
Meanwhile the rental market in this city has become dire. There are simply many more potential renters than houses to rent. Rents are rising and landlords have no trouble getting people willing to pay the higher rents. To rent a house is going to cost you about $1800 a month in this city if you can find one. Yes, this makes it affordable for a working couple, but it really does not work for single earner families.
Getting a job paying $12 an hour is easy in this city. You would earn about $22 000 a year at that rate. The rent for a house would be almost that much. You can rent an apartment for somewhere in the range of $700 a month. If you rent something like that and are earning $12 per hour, you are left with about $1000 a month to spend.
Housing is a problem and will remain a problem in this city unless there is a dramatic increase in the amount of housing stock available. I can see all the signs that the real estate market has topped out. I expect it will begin to decline over 2008 and take a bigger drop in 2009. This might open up the market in the city.
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