Tuesday, September 16, 2008

The Race in Saanich

We have a race in Saanich, but is still pretty light.

For mayor Frank Leonard is being challenged for the first time since 1999. Harald Wolf is the challenger, but I do not believe his left/green campaign has the resources to make a significant impression. At this point I expect a dramatic win by Frank.

At this point I know of ten candidates for eight council positions.

Incumbents running again:
  • Susan Brice
  • Judy Brownoff
  • Vic Derman
  • Wayne Hunter
  • Vicki Sanders
  • Leif Wergeland

I expect all of them to get re-elected. I have not heard if Jackie Ngai is running or not.

New candidates unning with the best chance of getting elected:
  • Paul Gerrard
  • Dean Murdoch
I expect both of them to get elected unless Jackie Ngai is running. It is too late for someone else unknown to enter the race and pull ahead of these two. Only a well known regional name could have an impact, say Russ Courtnall as an example.

Candidates I do not believe will be a factor:
  • Deborah Dickson
  • Patrick Chenier
I expect more people to come out of the woodwork, but realistically it is too late to enter the campaign now unless you have a very high name recognition.

The lack of much of a race in Saanich will further depress voter turn out. The federal election is sucking up a crucial month for any non-incumbents to campaign.

The Saanich Civic League had their big kick off in June, but three months later they seemed to have fizzled to nothing. I see them having no impact on the local election.
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