Thursday, November 06, 2008

Latest Victoria Real Estate Board stats are out and they are BAD!

The total sales in October are the lowest of any month in the last four years. Normally the lowest month of the year is December and then January. October is normally an average month for the year and is 50% higher than December. I do not have easy access to the stats earlier than that.

Unless something dramatically changes, we will see about 250 sales in November and only 200 in December, a total of 750 to 800 sales for the quarter.
  • Fourth Quarter Sales in Greater Victoria
  • 2008 - 750 est
  • 2007 - 1750
  • 2006 - 1550
  • 2005 - 1500
  • 2004 - 1800

Total sales value for October was $143 908 036 - the worst month in years. About 30% lower than the next worst months. This is a crash in the market for sales volumes.

Active MLS listings is still at over 4600 properties. Based on the total sales of the last year of just about 7000 properties, this means we have a eight month supply of houses on the market at the moment on an annual basis. In November 2007 there was a four month supply. There were 1150 new listings versus 312 sales - three times as many properties came on to the market as sold. In 2005 there were only slightly more coming onto the market than sales.

If you have a house on the market at the moment, the odds of your place selling if it is not a "fire sale" is about 5% per month for the next four months. This is an awful time to have your house on the market unless you are willing to sell well below your assessed value.

The average prices and median prices for houses in most areas is very strongly off the six month average. 10% to 20% off the six month average, not off of the peak.

The median price for a detached house as gone from $558 000 in April to $495 000 in October. This is the first time more than half the detached houses sold for less than $500 000 since May 2007.

Real Estate agent earnings are going to be down, last quarter of this year will see a drop of about 40% in real estate commissions paid. Though that could be lower if people selling their houses recognize the agents will be desperate and negotiate lower commissions. On a $500 000 house, the seller has to pay $18 000 in commission normally, since there are a lot of agents needing business, now is the time to ask for the rate to be cut in half.

We are realistically looking at a 20% to 30% drop in house values over the next year. By the fall of 2009 the median sale price will likely be at $380 000. Condos will have a median price around $220 000.
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