So there is a report out there speaking about the feasibility of running commuter rail on the E and N line for a $16 000 000 initial investment and an annual $2 000 000 operating cost.
I am skeptical about the report for several reasons:
The shorter O Train line in Ottawa was built for $21 000 000 about seven years ago. They needed to make no track upgrades. $6 000 000 of the costs for the O Train was for the rolling stock. The O train is also 100% separate from vehicle traffic.
18 km of rail track is not a cheap thing to build. I walked along numerous section of the existing line and it is in need of a major overhaul. There many years of deferred maintenance is going to cost more than $350 000 per km to overcome. This does not include the need several locations for trains to pass each other.
I can not see any mention of the needs for a maintenance yard/shed - is the proposal to use the existing location in Vic West?
I can not see any mention of all of the level crossings - there are some major problematic ones out there that need some sort of attention before you could run regular rail service. As far as I can tell is that any road costs have been off loaded in the report to local government or the provincial government. The cost of dealing with some of the more problematic intersections has to be addressed before this can go forward.
The suggested schedule of once every half hour seems unrealistic with a single train. The O Train in Ottawa manages an 8 km trip in 12 minutes with a total of five stations. They need three trains to maintain a 15 minute schedule in Ottawa. An 18 km trip with five stations indicates to me that a 25 minute trip is on the upper end of realistic. With a 25 minutes trip you need to have at least two trains to maintain a half an hour schedule. A single train will mean an hourly schedule.
The use of the same rolling stock as Ottawa is highly unlikely. The deal that Ottawa got on them is unlikely to be available again. Given the massive objection to building ferries in Germany, I am sure that people will object to trains being built there.
Ridership seems inflated to me. The O-Train in Ottawa has Carleton on its route and therefore serves a lot of University students. The E and N line has very few offices within 500 metres of the end station downtown. Most office workers downtown are about 700 to 1000 metres from the end of the line. Studies have shown that the relationship between users of transit and distance to their final destination is an inverse square relationship. The only location that seems well located for the line is the Graving Dock.
I have seen some differing numbers on the total number of riders, I have seen 700 to 12oo round trips and 1400 and 2300 round trips. With the upper number, you would need to have 10 trips into town at close to full capacity. With a half an hour schedule you need to have rush hour spread out over five hours to achieve this. The capacity of the line on a half hour schedule is 530 people in an hour. Assuming that the lower set is correct and the media made some errors, what would 1000 round trips mean for revenue? A total revenue of $1 125 000 a year presuming that all the fares are paid on a cash basis. In reality most of the users will use their transit pass and therefore drop the revenue to less than $1 000 000 in one year.
Operation costs seem low to me. I can not see any mention of such things as insurance, security staff, or rail traffic control. The other costs look too low to be able to provide the service suggested. In looking at comparable services, a much more realistic operating cost is in the range of $3 000 000 to $4 000 000 per year.
I can not see how the line would cost at least $2 000 000 a year to operate than what it costs to bring in. It seems to me that the subsidy would be more like $4 per trip taken or $8 per round trip.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Time to Separate
The time has come for Vancouver Island to separate from BC and create ourselves as our own province.
We have a large enough population to make sense as a province, our 725 000 people is only slightly less than New Brunswick's 750 000. Our population is also growing at a reasonable rate and should reach parity with Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia in the early 20s.
Our economy is well balanced among a number of different sectors.
We have one very strong university and a number of decent post secondary institutions. This bodes well to having a growing knowledge sector.
With the growth in the Comox Valley and the good air links eastwards, the centre of the island will help to balance the dominance Victoria has on the island.
I would envisage the new Vancouver Island province including all the Gulf Islands, the Powell river area and the mainland coast as far north as northern tip of Vancouver Island.
BC Ferries would become Vancouver Island Ferries.
I would see us having a legislature of about 50 of 60 MLAs - an improvement over the current 13 and a half out of 79. The lower mainland would not dominate the interests of the island.
Federally we would have 6 senators and 10 MPs. Currently we share 6 Senators will all of BC and have 6 MPs. Our political weight would improve in Ottawa.
We would have a reduction in the number of civil servants because the headquarters branches of most of the ministries would no longer be needed in Victoria.
We have a large enough population to make sense as a province, our 725 000 people is only slightly less than New Brunswick's 750 000. Our population is also growing at a reasonable rate and should reach parity with Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia in the early 20s.
Our economy is well balanced among a number of different sectors.
We have one very strong university and a number of decent post secondary institutions. This bodes well to having a growing knowledge sector.
With the growth in the Comox Valley and the good air links eastwards, the centre of the island will help to balance the dominance Victoria has on the island.
I would envisage the new Vancouver Island province including all the Gulf Islands, the Powell river area and the mainland coast as far north as northern tip of Vancouver Island.
BC Ferries would become Vancouver Island Ferries.
I would see us having a legislature of about 50 of 60 MLAs - an improvement over the current 13 and a half out of 79. The lower mainland would not dominate the interests of the island.
Federally we would have 6 senators and 10 MPs. Currently we share 6 Senators will all of BC and have 6 MPs. Our political weight would improve in Ottawa.
We would have a reduction in the number of civil servants because the headquarters branches of most of the ministries would no longer be needed in Victoria.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Back from the BC Transit Open House
I went to the BC Transit open house held at the Sandman on Douglas at Hillside. They had on display the Bus Rapid Transit plans for Douglas.
The expected savings for buses along the route is in the range of 5 minutes. This does not sound like a huge amount, but it drops a time out to Langford from 48 minutes to 43 minutes. Once the BRT is extended along Hwy #1 the time will drop to 43 minutes.
The BRT will take you from downtown to Town and Country in just over 10 minutes and there will be buses every few minutes. This should change the nature of how transit is used along the Douglas corridor.
I saw the plans for the exchange at Carey Road near to Town and Country. Finally there will be a proper bus exchange at what should be the most important point in the system.
All the buses will come into the Carey Road exchange, including the Saanich Peninsula buses. This location will make for a very important hub and spoke in the transit system. This is a far cry from what I remember from the 1980s when the only option you had was to take a bus downtown and then change there to anywhere else. Only the 26 did not fit this model.
I also like what I heard about the buses out to the Peninsula. Starting in the fall there will be an express bus out to the ferry every half and hour in daytime hours. The new express bus will shave 20 minutes off of the trip into town from the ferry. Sidney will have a bus coming into to town once every 15 minutes. The Sidney buses will also be routed down Douglas instead of Blanshard.
I raised my concern that all the left turn and U turn options along Douglas would reduce the time savings of the buses. It seems that this might be the case. The buses could be a few minutes faster if all these left turn options were not going to be offered.
The buses will also have some control over the lights, they will be able to extend the greens and be able to cycle a red to green faster.
I had a chance to ask a long series of questions of planners while I was at the open house. They were very much in line with my thinking on rail transit: very expensive to build, expensive to operate, no route in place, not enough of a population to support it, and generally a very bad fit for Greater Victoria.
In one conversation at the open house with a man looking at the plans, the issue of rail from Duncan came up. It was then that I remembered we already have a bus service from Duncan to Victoria. You can take the Greyhound from Duncan to Victoria in one hour and ten minutes. From Malahat it is 40 minutes to downtown Victoria. The round trip cost from Malahat is $10.30. The service is there, how many people make use of it?
The expected savings for buses along the route is in the range of 5 minutes. This does not sound like a huge amount, but it drops a time out to Langford from 48 minutes to 43 minutes. Once the BRT is extended along Hwy #1 the time will drop to 43 minutes.
The BRT will take you from downtown to Town and Country in just over 10 minutes and there will be buses every few minutes. This should change the nature of how transit is used along the Douglas corridor.
I saw the plans for the exchange at Carey Road near to Town and Country. Finally there will be a proper bus exchange at what should be the most important point in the system.
All the buses will come into the Carey Road exchange, including the Saanich Peninsula buses. This location will make for a very important hub and spoke in the transit system. This is a far cry from what I remember from the 1980s when the only option you had was to take a bus downtown and then change there to anywhere else. Only the 26 did not fit this model.
I also like what I heard about the buses out to the Peninsula. Starting in the fall there will be an express bus out to the ferry every half and hour in daytime hours. The new express bus will shave 20 minutes off of the trip into town from the ferry. Sidney will have a bus coming into to town once every 15 minutes. The Sidney buses will also be routed down Douglas instead of Blanshard.
I raised my concern that all the left turn and U turn options along Douglas would reduce the time savings of the buses. It seems that this might be the case. The buses could be a few minutes faster if all these left turn options were not going to be offered.
The buses will also have some control over the lights, they will be able to extend the greens and be able to cycle a red to green faster.
I had a chance to ask a long series of questions of planners while I was at the open house. They were very much in line with my thinking on rail transit: very expensive to build, expensive to operate, no route in place, not enough of a population to support it, and generally a very bad fit for Greater Victoria.
In one conversation at the open house with a man looking at the plans, the issue of rail from Duncan came up. It was then that I remembered we already have a bus service from Duncan to Victoria. You can take the Greyhound from Duncan to Victoria in one hour and ten minutes. From Malahat it is 40 minutes to downtown Victoria. The round trip cost from Malahat is $10.30. The service is there, how many people make use of it?
Trip to the City of Victoria Archives
I had some time to kill while waiting for my car to be serviced and since I was close to City Hall, I dropped in on the archives. I only had a short time there but took a look as some old maps while I was in there.
The pictures are all from BC Archives .
Gorge park had a loop turnaround for the streetcars.
I had no idea that BC Electric operated a yard for streetcars at Burnside and Harriet. The location is now a series of houses and a 7-11.
This is one of the series pictures from the end of the streetcar era in 1948. In looking through a lot of the pictures of the streetcars in Victoria from the 1890s to the 1940s, one thing I see that changes over that time is the typical traffic on the street. Before World War 2 the number of private cars is very limited, but by as early as 1948 there is an explosion of cars.
In cities that have streetcars and cars sharing the roads, the traffic intrusion of the streetcar is much higher than what would happen with a bus.
This phot being the process used to remove the tracks from the streets. It is sad to see something cool like streetcars no longer with us, but they simply do not mix well with other road uses and can not be used in a versatile way as a bus can.
Having ridden a bike in a city that has streetcars I can tell you the tracks are a cyclists nightmare. They are traps waiting to either break some spokes if you are lucky to horribly flip you through the air.
I can imagine what would happen if anyone seriously suggested bring back streetcars. The shop owners along the route would scream about the loss of trade due to the construction. The people living along the route would complain about the noise - steel on steel on a curve typically has a nasty high pitched metal scrapping noise. And finally people would scream about the ugliness of the overhead wires needed.
The pictures are all from BC Archives .
Gorge park had a loop turnaround for the streetcars.I had no idea that BC Electric operated a yard for streetcars at Burnside and Harriet. The location is now a series of houses and a 7-11.
This is one of the series pictures from the end of the streetcar era in 1948. In looking through a lot of the pictures of the streetcars in Victoria from the 1890s to the 1940s, one thing I see that changes over that time is the typical traffic on the street. Before World War 2 the number of private cars is very limited, but by as early as 1948 there is an explosion of cars.
In cities that have streetcars and cars sharing the roads, the traffic intrusion of the streetcar is much higher than what would happen with a bus.
This phot being the process used to remove the tracks from the streets. It is sad to see something cool like streetcars no longer with us, but they simply do not mix well with other road uses and can not be used in a versatile way as a bus can.
Having ridden a bike in a city that has streetcars I can tell you the tracks are a cyclists nightmare. They are traps waiting to either break some spokes if you are lucky to horribly flip you through the air.
I can imagine what would happen if anyone seriously suggested bring back streetcars. The shop owners along the route would scream about the loss of trade due to the construction. The people living along the route would complain about the noise - steel on steel on a curve typically has a nasty high pitched metal scrapping noise. And finally people would scream about the ugliness of the overhead wires needed.
More on the Busway
Today there are some open houses here in town about the busway. I will be going to the one at the Sandman on Douglas this afternoon.
I have had some comments about what I have had to say about transit in this region so I will respond to some of the issues raised.
Many people out there are still sold on rail transit versus buses. In all the looking I have done over the past few weeks, I can not find a business case that supports the concept of rail transit for this region. There is nothing out there. How does one pay for the hundreds of millions it will cost to built the most basic single short rail transit line? Where will the money come from? How will we pay for the operation of the line? Where does the money come from?????
We do have examples of successful express bus systems. I have been very impressed with what Ottawa put into place. The system works very well and cost a lot less to build than a rail system and has more flexible. The B Lines in Vancouver are also examples of good bus options for transit.
Buses have so much a higher degree of flexibility. If traffic demands it, you can easily add more buses or use higher capacity buses. If traffic is low, you use small buses. If a route needs to shift a bit, there is the ability to do so as the demand changes.
Here in Victoria the major bus routes have been stopping at the same locations for decades. Their routing has not changed but their frequency has. The routes are well known and consistent.
Putting the busway along Blanshard makes no sense given the logistics of getting the buses to their intended destinations.
More later, I have to go into town now.
I have had some comments about what I have had to say about transit in this region so I will respond to some of the issues raised.
Many people out there are still sold on rail transit versus buses. In all the looking I have done over the past few weeks, I can not find a business case that supports the concept of rail transit for this region. There is nothing out there. How does one pay for the hundreds of millions it will cost to built the most basic single short rail transit line? Where will the money come from? How will we pay for the operation of the line? Where does the money come from?????
We do have examples of successful express bus systems. I have been very impressed with what Ottawa put into place. The system works very well and cost a lot less to build than a rail system and has more flexible. The B Lines in Vancouver are also examples of good bus options for transit.
Buses have so much a higher degree of flexibility. If traffic demands it, you can easily add more buses or use higher capacity buses. If traffic is low, you use small buses. If a route needs to shift a bit, there is the ability to do so as the demand changes.
Here in Victoria the major bus routes have been stopping at the same locations for decades. Their routing has not changed but their frequency has. The routes are well known and consistent.
Putting the busway along Blanshard makes no sense given the logistics of getting the buses to their intended destinations.
More later, I have to go into town now.
Henderson Bike Route
One of the single busiest bicycle destinations in Greater Victoria is UVic. I remember biking there in the 1980s and the lack of separation on the roads between bikes and cars. I remember Henderson Road and remember the way the road encouraged speed through its wide lanes and the danger at driveways hidden behind parked cars. It is not one of the safer routes to UVic for a bike.
Work has been done to provide access to the campus for bikes from all directions. One of the clear routes that needs to be there is the one up Foul Bay Road and then along Henderson onto the campus. But beware.........
here lurk NIMBYs!
People living along Henderson Road have opposed the loss of their on street parking to bicycles.
Oak Bay council continues their decidedly non green ways by voting down the bike route in favour of allowing more cars to park along the road. It seems that Hazel Braithwaite, Frank Carson, Allan Cassidy and Joh Herbert are all opposed. The Mayor, Chris Cawstonm, along with Nils Jensen and Pam Copley are in favour.
All I can think is that the councilors opposed are in some way wanting university students to get less exercise and not do as much as they can towards a cleaner environment.
Safer Cycling Oak Bay has a petition in favour of the route - I will be signing and hope others will as well.
What I find most bizarre is that the house along Henderson all seem to have more than enough space to be able to have six cars parked there - two in the garage and four on their driveway. The number of times per year that you need to be able to park more than six cars at a house is very, very limited. There is enough parking nearby that there is no need for on street parking. Drive along this road and look for yourself. When I looked I could not find a house that would be more than 100 metres for a place to park.
It is this attitude in Oak Bay by the residents of Henderson Road and the council why we will see very few concrete actions that reduce green house gases. Realistically green house gases will be dealt with through carbon sequestration and not through major reductions by the public
Work has been done to provide access to the campus for bikes from all directions. One of the clear routes that needs to be there is the one up Foul Bay Road and then along Henderson onto the campus. But beware.........
here lurk NIMBYs!
People living along Henderson Road have opposed the loss of their on street parking to bicycles.
Oak Bay council continues their decidedly non green ways by voting down the bike route in favour of allowing more cars to park along the road. It seems that Hazel Braithwaite, Frank Carson, Allan Cassidy and Joh Herbert are all opposed. The Mayor, Chris Cawstonm, along with Nils Jensen and Pam Copley are in favour.
All I can think is that the councilors opposed are in some way wanting university students to get less exercise and not do as much as they can towards a cleaner environment.
Safer Cycling Oak Bay has a petition in favour of the route - I will be signing and hope others will as well.
What I find most bizarre is that the house along Henderson all seem to have more than enough space to be able to have six cars parked there - two in the garage and four on their driveway. The number of times per year that you need to be able to park more than six cars at a house is very, very limited. There is enough parking nearby that there is no need for on street parking. Drive along this road and look for yourself. When I looked I could not find a house that would be more than 100 metres for a place to park.
It is this attitude in Oak Bay by the residents of Henderson Road and the council why we will see very few concrete actions that reduce green house gases. Realistically green house gases will be dealt with through carbon sequestration and not through major reductions by the public
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Electronic Media in Victoria
On most days I feel like I am in a black hole when it comes to electronic media in this city. We have a few TV stations and a few more radio stations, but not really a lot of either.
TV
None of the local stations broadcast with a strong enough signal that I can actually pick them on my TV. I have given up cable because it is an old and inflexible technology.
CHEK TV - all they offer for local programming seems to be the news and it based on the classic bland and pointless coverage that focuses on fires and crashes. Not a single local program about the place we live in. No local drama or comedy - and given the huge market out there for content, there is clearly a market for something produced here that is local.
A Channel - repeat the above. Frankly the local stations are completely interchangeable.
Shaw Cable - The produce local programs, I am even on some of them commenting on politics, but since I do not have cable, I do not see the programs. I would like to see some of them as I understand that they do have local content.
RADIO
We have the following:
Not that Vancouver is doing any better.
The presence of Victoria in the electronic media is effectively non existent. I have no idea what the answer is. I doubt there are many people with much interest in fixing the problem
TV
None of the local stations broadcast with a strong enough signal that I can actually pick them on my TV. I have given up cable because it is an old and inflexible technology.
CHEK TV - all they offer for local programming seems to be the news and it based on the classic bland and pointless coverage that focuses on fires and crashes. Not a single local program about the place we live in. No local drama or comedy - and given the huge market out there for content, there is clearly a market for something produced here that is local.
A Channel - repeat the above. Frankly the local stations are completely interchangeable.
Shaw Cable - The produce local programs, I am even on some of them commenting on politics, but since I do not have cable, I do not see the programs. I would like to see some of them as I understand that they do have local content.
RADIO
We have the following:
CKMO AM 900 - the Village - lots of good world music and some interesting other stuff.
CFAX AM 1070 - Our only talk radio station. Sort of OK, the hosts are old, the station is underfunded and it ticks along.....
- CBC Radio One - 90.5 FM We get a local morning program for the island and host the afternoon non-Metro Vancouver drive time show. This is less than 30 hours a week of programming produced locally.
- The Zone - 91.3 bland, bland, bland corporate rock music - zero local feel
- The Ocean - 98.5 bland, bland, bland corporate bland music - zero local feel
- The Q - 100.3 more bland without local feel
- CFUV - 101.9 Campus radio - the community aspect seems to be gone. The best going locally, but it suffers from hit and miss with respect to quality.
- Jack FM - 103.1 another bland corporate formula - I have it one because it is easier than changing the CDs in the car
- Kool FM - 107.3 blah, blah, blah, blah
- CILS - 107.9 Victoria's newest station and only French station, I have never listened to this community radio station.
Not that Vancouver is doing any better.
The presence of Victoria in the electronic media is effectively non existent. I have no idea what the answer is. I doubt there are many people with much interest in fixing the problem
Electoral Reform
Victoria is the hot bed of electoral reform in Canada. There will be a chance to come meet the directors of Fair Voting BC on Feb 2.
Fair Voting BC Notice of Beer/Dinner Night Feb 2, 2008 in Victoria
=========================================================
Meet the Directors: Please join us for a beer and/or dinner!
The Directors will be meeting in Victoria on Saturday, February 2, 2008 and we would like to meet with local supporters afterwards.
Accordingly, we have arranged with the Canoe Club in Victoria (http://www.canoebrewpub.com) to have an area set aside for us from 5:30 to 8:00 pm so that we can socialize over dinner and beer. We will be meeting in an area just to the right of the main door on the first level.
Please feel free to forward this note to anyone you think would be interested in joining us.
Please RSVP so that I can give the pub some idea of numbers and reserve the right amount of space.
Parking can be tight in this area but is easier if you are willing to walk a few blocks (see map and note about parking on their website).
PS: I have had to send this note out to everyone on my distribution list since I don't have physical locations for most people. We are planning to have directors meetings in other parts of the province and will organize pub nights accordingly.
=========================================================
Please RSVP to FairVotingBC@telus.net or phone 250-384-0666
=========================================================
Prepared by Wendy Bergerud, January 2008
Donations are, of course, greatly appreciated. While Fair Voting BC is a non-profit society, we are unable to issue charitable tax receipts. This is because our mandate is considered political and so we don't qualify for charitable tax status. We now have an online donation system working - check our website at www.fairvotingbc.com. On the other hand, donations (to Fair Voting BC) can always be sent to me since I am also the treasurer! Please send to 1183 Wicklow Place, Victoria, V8X 4M8 for snail mail.
Fair Voting BC Notice of Beer/Dinner Night Feb 2, 2008 in Victoria
=========================================================
Meet the Directors: Please join us for a beer and/or dinner!
The Directors will be meeting in Victoria on Saturday, February 2, 2008 and we would like to meet with local supporters afterwards.
Accordingly, we have arranged with the Canoe Club in Victoria (http://www.canoebrewpub.com) to have an area set aside for us from 5:30 to 8:00 pm so that we can socialize over dinner and beer. We will be meeting in an area just to the right of the main door on the first level.
Please feel free to forward this note to anyone you think would be interested in joining us.
Please RSVP so that I can give the pub some idea of numbers and reserve the right amount of space.
Parking can be tight in this area but is easier if you are willing to walk a few blocks (see map and note about parking on their website).
PS: I have had to send this note out to everyone on my distribution list since I don't have physical locations for most people. We are planning to have directors meetings in other parts of the province and will organize pub nights accordingly.
=========================================================
Please RSVP to FairVotingBC@telus.net or phone 250-384-0666
=========================================================
Prepared by Wendy Bergerud, January 2008
Donations are, of course, greatly appreciated. While Fair Voting BC is a non-profit society, we are unable to issue charitable tax receipts. This is because our mandate is considered political and so we don't qualify for charitable tax status. We now have an online donation system working - check our website at www.fairvotingbc.com. On the other hand, donations (to Fair Voting BC) can always be sent to me since I am also the treasurer! Please send to 1183 Wicklow Place, Victoria, V8X 4M8 for snail mail.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Light Rail For Victoria - You Need Drugs To Think It Makes Sense
I am still amazed this idea has not been out to rest yet. There are so many problems with idea that I do not know where to begin.
Railcars - you need to buy these at a cost of twice as much per seat as a bus. Each 40 seat rail car will cost you more than a double decker bus. To make them worth their money, you need to make twice the use of them.
The Route - let us say that you can get the E and N line for free. The route would have to be significantly upgraded - at a minimum you need to double track the whole route, something that is not possible at various spots along the route. There are spots in Esquimalt where the buildings on either side are only 16 metres apart.
The route would also play havoc with traffic at numerous spots along the route. As an example at Esquimalt Road the line crosses in such a way as to an oblique and dramatic angle. To deal with this problem, a four lane over pass would have to be built for the road at a cost of tens of millions of dollars.
The end of the route would require something to be done about the pedestrian and cycle traffic over the Johnson Street bridge. The route from the roundhouse would have to single track. Only one train at a time could discharge in downtown at a time. This would limit how often trains could arrive downtown and limit the the capacity of the network. I suspect this would limit it to only once every 10 minutes. A four car train would bring in about 150 people if it was full. That would be less than 1000 people per hour into downtown.
You can also look at the intersection with Lampson or at Admirals. Both locations would have huge problems with traffic management. The only access to the Esquimalt Reserve would be effectively cut off unless you did some major road rebuilding. We have not even reached View Royal and the tab for simply managing the road issues is reaching something close to $100 000 000. This does not include anything to do with the actual cost of building the rail line needed.
In View Royal we have some interesting problems. Where do you put the station? There is no space at the Old Island Highway where the tracks go over the road unless you pave over Portage Park. The route would need several four bridges to be built one of which would be over 100 metres long.
The comes the nightmare corner - Goldstream and Veteran's Memorial Parkway. The cost to fix that location will be in the $50 000 000 to $100 000 000 range, assuming it is possible to do at all. The intersection of Jacklin and Dunford is not as bad, but still a problem.
Between CFB Esquimalt and the centre of Langford, the route has very limited density. In large part this is because people did not want to live next to the tracks. There is very little traffic to be picked up along the way.
If one were to only go as fas as Goldstream Ave and avoided that nightmare intersection, about 12 km of track would have to be built - yes, the whole track has to be rebuilt because it is not built to a standard to allow for trains moving at anything above a crawl. How much would it cost to built this 12 km commuter rail?
Rail cars - you would need about about 16 of them, this would cost you about $20 000 000
Intersection rebuilds would add another $100 000 000
12 km of double track rail would cost you about $50 000 000 - this assumes the engineering needs keep it all simple.
You would need to expand the right of way by about the equivalent of 100 city lots. That would run you another $50 000 000 - ball park.
A rail maintenance yard has to be built - $30 000 000
We where are we at cost-wise? $250 000 000. This is working from an existing right of way. If we push to another 2.5 km further westwards the costs rise to over $350 000 000.
That is a lot of money for 10 000 passenger trips a day. The interest on this amount would be about $13 000 000 a year, or about $4 per passenger trip.
What I have not even touched on is the higher operating cost of the trains when compared to buses.
At best you would be saving about 10 minutes on the bus. The time savings would be zero once there is a bus lane.
Everyone thinking about rail for this region needs to give their head a serious shake, it is fundamentally economically flawed.
Railcars - you need to buy these at a cost of twice as much per seat as a bus. Each 40 seat rail car will cost you more than a double decker bus. To make them worth their money, you need to make twice the use of them.
The Route - let us say that you can get the E and N line for free. The route would have to be significantly upgraded - at a minimum you need to double track the whole route, something that is not possible at various spots along the route. There are spots in Esquimalt where the buildings on either side are only 16 metres apart.
The route would also play havoc with traffic at numerous spots along the route. As an example at Esquimalt Road the line crosses in such a way as to an oblique and dramatic angle. To deal with this problem, a four lane over pass would have to be built for the road at a cost of tens of millions of dollars.
The end of the route would require something to be done about the pedestrian and cycle traffic over the Johnson Street bridge. The route from the roundhouse would have to single track. Only one train at a time could discharge in downtown at a time. This would limit how often trains could arrive downtown and limit the the capacity of the network. I suspect this would limit it to only once every 10 minutes. A four car train would bring in about 150 people if it was full. That would be less than 1000 people per hour into downtown.
You can also look at the intersection with Lampson or at Admirals. Both locations would have huge problems with traffic management. The only access to the Esquimalt Reserve would be effectively cut off unless you did some major road rebuilding. We have not even reached View Royal and the tab for simply managing the road issues is reaching something close to $100 000 000. This does not include anything to do with the actual cost of building the rail line needed.
In View Royal we have some interesting problems. Where do you put the station? There is no space at the Old Island Highway where the tracks go over the road unless you pave over Portage Park. The route would need several four bridges to be built one of which would be over 100 metres long.
The comes the nightmare corner - Goldstream and Veteran's Memorial Parkway. The cost to fix that location will be in the $50 000 000 to $100 000 000 range, assuming it is possible to do at all. The intersection of Jacklin and Dunford is not as bad, but still a problem.
Between CFB Esquimalt and the centre of Langford, the route has very limited density. In large part this is because people did not want to live next to the tracks. There is very little traffic to be picked up along the way.
If one were to only go as fas as Goldstream Ave and avoided that nightmare intersection, about 12 km of track would have to be built - yes, the whole track has to be rebuilt because it is not built to a standard to allow for trains moving at anything above a crawl. How much would it cost to built this 12 km commuter rail?
Rail cars - you would need about about 16 of them, this would cost you about $20 000 000
Intersection rebuilds would add another $100 000 000
12 km of double track rail would cost you about $50 000 000 - this assumes the engineering needs keep it all simple.
You would need to expand the right of way by about the equivalent of 100 city lots. That would run you another $50 000 000 - ball park.
A rail maintenance yard has to be built - $30 000 000
We where are we at cost-wise? $250 000 000. This is working from an existing right of way. If we push to another 2.5 km further westwards the costs rise to over $350 000 000.
That is a lot of money for 10 000 passenger trips a day. The interest on this amount would be about $13 000 000 a year, or about $4 per passenger trip.
What I have not even touched on is the higher operating cost of the trains when compared to buses.
At best you would be saving about 10 minutes on the bus. The time savings would be zero once there is a bus lane.
Everyone thinking about rail for this region needs to give their head a serious shake, it is fundamentally economically flawed.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Money for the Busway
Yesterday's announcement by the government of its transit plan included a bit for Victoria.
The biggest was the concept of a rapid bus out to Langford from downtown. This nicely mirrors what the region has been considering and shows that the government is ready to put in the money needed to make it happen.
The brochure had a picture of a proposed bus only overpass for the Mackenzie and Hwy #1 intersection. Interesting as an idea, but I wonder how much time this would actually save? I think you can get much further if you simply add a lane to the road for buses only. But, the picture is said to only be an artists concept.
I am sure there will be people complaining here in the CRD about the lack of anything to do with rail. When are people going to see that there is no viable business model for rail in the Greater Victoria area? We do not have the people or density to make rail an option. Can we really afford to turn over all the land needed for a single use?
I am sure that the Douglas busway is still going to have a long gestation period before it manages to come into existence on the ground in this city.
Here is a suggestion that will get more people out of their cars. Make some of the lanes on Douglas and Hwy #1 transit only during peak hours. The buses would wiz out and the rest of the traffic would sit and not move. There would be enough of a time savings that people would be motivated to move out of their cars.
The biggest was the concept of a rapid bus out to Langford from downtown. This nicely mirrors what the region has been considering and shows that the government is ready to put in the money needed to make it happen.
The brochure had a picture of a proposed bus only overpass for the Mackenzie and Hwy #1 intersection. Interesting as an idea, but I wonder how much time this would actually save? I think you can get much further if you simply add a lane to the road for buses only. But, the picture is said to only be an artists concept.
I am sure there will be people complaining here in the CRD about the lack of anything to do with rail. When are people going to see that there is no viable business model for rail in the Greater Victoria area? We do not have the people or density to make rail an option. Can we really afford to turn over all the land needed for a single use?
I am sure that the Douglas busway is still going to have a long gestation period before it manages to come into existence on the ground in this city.
Here is a suggestion that will get more people out of their cars. Make some of the lanes on Douglas and Hwy #1 transit only during peak hours. The buses would wiz out and the rest of the traffic would sit and not move. There would be enough of a time savings that people would be motivated to move out of their cars.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
A Grand Park for Victoria
The Victoria suffers from not having a central grand park such as Stanley Park in Vancouver, Gasworks Park in Seattle, Toronto Island, Prince's Island in Calgary or Hyde Park in London.
We have Beacon Hill park that no longer acts as the sort of grand urban park that the city needs. Beacon Hill has had its ability to host community events and be a gathering place killed off over the last 20 years - far enough now that it has become logistically impossible to have it be the cornerstone of the community.
One could recover Beacon Hill park to what is should be for the community, but if I were to start from scratch, it is not a location I would choose for this city at this time.
What I see the park needing to have are the following:
We have some decent parks are the perimeter of the city - Mount Doug, Thetis Lake, and Elk Lake - but they are being focused on as urban wilderness spaces and not as a public gathering places for the community. I can not see there being willingness of the public to accept 30 to 50 acres of Mount Doug being made into much heavier use, even though this is less than 10% of the park.
Places I think this grand urban park could go are the following locations:
Cuthbert Holmes Park - this is the park next to Tillicum mall. The site is about 60 acres in size and could be rebuilt to be the park for the region. The Tillicum mall offers the parking and transit needs. The Pearkes Rec Centre offers the building facilities needed. The setting could be made into a beautiful urban manicured park with some very decent ampitheatre like setting possible in the northeast corner.
Kinsman Gorge and the Gorge Park in Saanich offers a potential site of about 40 acres to work with. If one were to build a lower level pedesitrian bridge and a decent set of underpasses at the Tillicum bridge, one could unify the two sides of the Gorge and make one park that could offer the setting the community needs. This site has the advantage that it is already reasonably heavily managed and not a 'wild' park. What is missing are any sort of community buildings or facilities. This location already hosts some community events of some reasonable scale.
Another location would the the Cedar Hill Golf Course. I personally think that it is unreasonable for Saanich to devote close to 130 acres of park land to golf. Golf is wildly land intensive for a relatively small number of users. Cedar Hill Park has the space and setting to become our Central Park, it is the only existing park that is comparable to Beacon Hill Park in size and is not 'wild' in nature. It could host huge community events. It could offer the space for numerous groups to hold their events and not interfere with each other. The only problem is that the location is not on many main routes and has very little transit accessing it. The golfers would also object and raise merry hell.
The Blenkinsop valley could host a park, but I am certain the nimby reaction would swift and loud.
Layritz Park is about 60 acres in size so therefore has the space, and the proximity to Camosun and the Van Isle Tech Park means there is existing parking available that is underused on weekends and holidays. The biggest problem with this location is that it is too far off the beaten path.
This central regional community park is crucial for our region to build a stronger social capital. The time has come for this debate and I hope that I can get it rolling.
We have Beacon Hill park that no longer acts as the sort of grand urban park that the city needs. Beacon Hill has had its ability to host community events and be a gathering place killed off over the last 20 years - far enough now that it has become logistically impossible to have it be the cornerstone of the community.
One could recover Beacon Hill park to what is should be for the community, but if I were to start from scratch, it is not a location I would choose for this city at this time.
What I see the park needing to have are the following:
- Green space
- Space for crowds of 50 to 30 000 to be able to gather for an event
- Real day to day use of the space
- A rec with full facilities on site
- Decent transit and parking
- A reasonable distance for most people in greater Victoria
We have some decent parks are the perimeter of the city - Mount Doug, Thetis Lake, and Elk Lake - but they are being focused on as urban wilderness spaces and not as a public gathering places for the community. I can not see there being willingness of the public to accept 30 to 50 acres of Mount Doug being made into much heavier use, even though this is less than 10% of the park.
Places I think this grand urban park could go are the following locations:
Cuthbert Holmes Park - this is the park next to Tillicum mall. The site is about 60 acres in size and could be rebuilt to be the park for the region. The Tillicum mall offers the parking and transit needs. The Pearkes Rec Centre offers the building facilities needed. The setting could be made into a beautiful urban manicured park with some very decent ampitheatre like setting possible in the northeast corner.
Kinsman Gorge and the Gorge Park in Saanich offers a potential site of about 40 acres to work with. If one were to build a lower level pedesitrian bridge and a decent set of underpasses at the Tillicum bridge, one could unify the two sides of the Gorge and make one park that could offer the setting the community needs. This site has the advantage that it is already reasonably heavily managed and not a 'wild' park. What is missing are any sort of community buildings or facilities. This location already hosts some community events of some reasonable scale.
Another location would the the Cedar Hill Golf Course. I personally think that it is unreasonable for Saanich to devote close to 130 acres of park land to golf. Golf is wildly land intensive for a relatively small number of users. Cedar Hill Park has the space and setting to become our Central Park, it is the only existing park that is comparable to Beacon Hill Park in size and is not 'wild' in nature. It could host huge community events. It could offer the space for numerous groups to hold their events and not interfere with each other. The only problem is that the location is not on many main routes and has very little transit accessing it. The golfers would also object and raise merry hell.
The Blenkinsop valley could host a park, but I am certain the nimby reaction would swift and loud.
Layritz Park is about 60 acres in size so therefore has the space, and the proximity to Camosun and the Van Isle Tech Park means there is existing parking available that is underused on weekends and holidays. The biggest problem with this location is that it is too far off the beaten path.
This central regional community park is crucial for our region to build a stronger social capital. The time has come for this debate and I hope that I can get it rolling.
Friday, January 11, 2008
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Douglas Busway
This issue is heating up here in Victoria. There is all manner of new opposition coming from people who are concerned about the impact to businesses on Douglas, but I fail to see where the worry comes from.
Issue One - The Best Location for the Busway
Some people are suggesting the busway be put on Blanshard. There are numerous reasons this makes little sense. The buses would all have to shift over a block somewhere at the end of downtown and make a left turn onto Blanshard. The buses going out to the western communities would then have to shift back to Douglas sometime again, likely at Saanich road, this would cause more traffic problems and slow the buses down.
Blanshard also has many fewer destinations along its route that have transit demand.
Number 70 and 75 already run up Blanshard and seem to do well enough.
Douglas meanwhile has the 30, 31, 50, and 61 running the whole length which come once every three minutes in peak times. There are four more heavily used routes use the southern half. Douglas is where the buses are at the moment.
Issue Two - Loss of on street parking
As is stands, there is very little street parking on Douglas in north of Bay. South of Bay there is an average amount, but not a lot. Almost all the businesses along the proposed busway rely very little on Douglas for parking.
Could there be an isolated business on the south end of the Douglas that relies on free parking from the city? That is likely, but why should we be providing free on street parking for these businesses in any case? The lanes of the roads are there to move traffic - that is there highest and best use of the land.
Issue Three - the bus stops will be in the middle of the street
This is a bizarre concern to me as I am not sure why people think the public will not be able to cross to the centre to get on the busses.
Issue Four - We should be considering rail
Rail transit is very expensive. To build an at grade LRT out to the western communities from downtown would cost something in the order of $200 000 000. To move it above the other traffic in the manner of SkyTrain would boost this cost to $300 000 000. The interest alone on this would cost $10 000 000 a year.
For an LRT to make sense, you need to be looking at 100 000 trips per day. The whole Victoria transit system has about 55 000 to 60 000 per day.
For an LRT to work you have to work with existing density. The two locations the most people are trying to get to are downtown and UVic. Secondary nodes are Camosun Interurban and CFB Esquimalt. The problem is that none of these locations are bookends to a route that makes sense or have a clear place that people are gathered from.
An at grade system is a traffic nightmare. Each and every level crossing would have to block traffic when the train came.
Existing rail lines and former rail line locations are not well located or ready to be used. The E and N line is not built to run rail transit. The route is one that the trains have to be limited in speed.
A single rail car that run commuters into town costs more than twice the same cost as a bus that can carry the same number of people. To put it in other terms, each rail car would mean two less buses on the roads. Rail cars are limited to where they can go, buses are flexible. BC Transit has also diversified the type of buses in use to reflect the demand on a route. You can not do that as easily with rail
Issue Five - Loss of left turn bays
There are very few left turn bays along Douglas. A few will be kept but most of the locations where one can turn left at the moment do more to hinder movement than provide anything useful for movement of traffic. It is my neighbourhood that will be most effected but the problems will be minimal.
On the south end it will help a lot not allowing left turns. Right now a single car can effectively block a lane of through traffic.
Issue Six - South end of Douglas business
This area is ripe for redevelopment. The area is a rundown and ugly eyesore. The area between Fisgard and Bay and Blanshard and Store is filled with run down commercial buildings. This is an area that could and should be rebuilt with office commercial in towers and condos. This redevelopment will happen and has been proposed in several different areas already. The busway is no problem for the redevelopment.
Issue One - The Best Location for the Busway
Some people are suggesting the busway be put on Blanshard. There are numerous reasons this makes little sense. The buses would all have to shift over a block somewhere at the end of downtown and make a left turn onto Blanshard. The buses going out to the western communities would then have to shift back to Douglas sometime again, likely at Saanich road, this would cause more traffic problems and slow the buses down.
Blanshard also has many fewer destinations along its route that have transit demand.
Number 70 and 75 already run up Blanshard and seem to do well enough.
Douglas meanwhile has the 30, 31, 50, and 61 running the whole length which come once every three minutes in peak times. There are four more heavily used routes use the southern half. Douglas is where the buses are at the moment.
Issue Two - Loss of on street parking
As is stands, there is very little street parking on Douglas in north of Bay. South of Bay there is an average amount, but not a lot. Almost all the businesses along the proposed busway rely very little on Douglas for parking.
Could there be an isolated business on the south end of the Douglas that relies on free parking from the city? That is likely, but why should we be providing free on street parking for these businesses in any case? The lanes of the roads are there to move traffic - that is there highest and best use of the land.
Issue Three - the bus stops will be in the middle of the street
This is a bizarre concern to me as I am not sure why people think the public will not be able to cross to the centre to get on the busses.
Issue Four - We should be considering rail
Rail transit is very expensive. To build an at grade LRT out to the western communities from downtown would cost something in the order of $200 000 000. To move it above the other traffic in the manner of SkyTrain would boost this cost to $300 000 000. The interest alone on this would cost $10 000 000 a year.
For an LRT to make sense, you need to be looking at 100 000 trips per day. The whole Victoria transit system has about 55 000 to 60 000 per day.
For an LRT to work you have to work with existing density. The two locations the most people are trying to get to are downtown and UVic. Secondary nodes are Camosun Interurban and CFB Esquimalt. The problem is that none of these locations are bookends to a route that makes sense or have a clear place that people are gathered from.
An at grade system is a traffic nightmare. Each and every level crossing would have to block traffic when the train came.
Existing rail lines and former rail line locations are not well located or ready to be used. The E and N line is not built to run rail transit. The route is one that the trains have to be limited in speed.
A single rail car that run commuters into town costs more than twice the same cost as a bus that can carry the same number of people. To put it in other terms, each rail car would mean two less buses on the roads. Rail cars are limited to where they can go, buses are flexible. BC Transit has also diversified the type of buses in use to reflect the demand on a route. You can not do that as easily with rail
Issue Five - Loss of left turn bays
There are very few left turn bays along Douglas. A few will be kept but most of the locations where one can turn left at the moment do more to hinder movement than provide anything useful for movement of traffic. It is my neighbourhood that will be most effected but the problems will be minimal.
On the south end it will help a lot not allowing left turns. Right now a single car can effectively block a lane of through traffic.
Issue Six - South end of Douglas business
This area is ripe for redevelopment. The area is a rundown and ugly eyesore. The area between Fisgard and Bay and Blanshard and Store is filled with run down commercial buildings. This is an area that could and should be rebuilt with office commercial in towers and condos. This redevelopment will happen and has been proposed in several different areas already. The busway is no problem for the redevelopment.
Thursday, January 03, 2008
Increasing density
I believe that Saanich should look at allowing a dramatic increase in the density along Tillicum Road from Gorge to Hwy #1.
If one looks at the Tillicum mall area one can see that this location has a lot of the amenities the public needs located in one area. This area lends itself a walking lifestyle without a lot of difficulty. We have the Pearkes Rec Centre there, Silver City, Cuthbert Holmes Park, several mid range restaurants, a Starbucks, a Safeway, dentist and doctors' clinics and now a library. The location is also well suited for access to schools with Tillicum Elementary and Colquitz Middle School within a short walk of the site.
The frontage of the Tillicum mall on Tillicum road is a large empty park lot. There is ample space to build condos on this space and have underground parking. Something like Tuscany village, only larger. One could construct two levels of underground parking - with a link into the lower level of the mall. Frankly I believe one could expand the lower level of the mall.
On the surface one could expand the street level shopping as part of the condo development.
A four to five story development would offer 200 000 sq feet of retail and 450 000 sq feet of living space. That is 300 living units on that location - roughly another 450 people living in the area. On the rear side of the site one could construct something of a similar scale. Adding close to 1000 people to the area on this site is realistic.
Also realistic would be the construction of a 10 story tall office tower at some location on the site. 300 000 sq feet of space is realistic and would place a larger daytime demand on the location.
I would construct a pool on the site as well - make it part of the development permit requirement and have one more reason to reduce the need of the public to travel.
The location is well situated for transit to most locations in Greater Victoria and should mean that the increased population would mean a lower increase in cars on the road. You can get to Downtown, UVic/Gordon Head, Camosun, Esquimalt, Oak Bay, and Hillside without having to change buses.
The location is also a very good one for access out of via car - Hwy #1 is right at hand and Hwy #17 is not far away. You can be in most locations in Greater Victoria rather quickly.
There are more areas in the neighbourhood that could be redeveloped for more businesses, retail and residential. The wedge of land between Hwy #1, Burnside and Tillicum is rife for redevelopment. The northern chunk is a very badly built and maintained condo development. Frankly the whole development needs to be pulled down. I would suggest that all the owners be offered units in a new development in return for selling the site. Saanich should allow a much higher density on the location.
The whole wedge is about 12 acres in size - large enough to allow for a lot of commercial, retail and residential construction. With enough density allowed, the location could house 2000 people and offer 600 000 sq feet of both retail and commercial space.
I would construct a large pedestrian overpass across to Tillicum Mall - 20 to 30 feet across and plants and landscaping.
Finally, the area could use some sort of late night locations - a good bar or nightclub would be beneficial.
If one looks at the Tillicum mall area one can see that this location has a lot of the amenities the public needs located in one area. This area lends itself a walking lifestyle without a lot of difficulty. We have the Pearkes Rec Centre there, Silver City, Cuthbert Holmes Park, several mid range restaurants, a Starbucks, a Safeway, dentist and doctors' clinics and now a library. The location is also well suited for access to schools with Tillicum Elementary and Colquitz Middle School within a short walk of the site.
The frontage of the Tillicum mall on Tillicum road is a large empty park lot. There is ample space to build condos on this space and have underground parking. Something like Tuscany village, only larger. One could construct two levels of underground parking - with a link into the lower level of the mall. Frankly I believe one could expand the lower level of the mall.
On the surface one could expand the street level shopping as part of the condo development.
A four to five story development would offer 200 000 sq feet of retail and 450 000 sq feet of living space. That is 300 living units on that location - roughly another 450 people living in the area. On the rear side of the site one could construct something of a similar scale. Adding close to 1000 people to the area on this site is realistic.
Also realistic would be the construction of a 10 story tall office tower at some location on the site. 300 000 sq feet of space is realistic and would place a larger daytime demand on the location.
I would construct a pool on the site as well - make it part of the development permit requirement and have one more reason to reduce the need of the public to travel.
The location is well situated for transit to most locations in Greater Victoria and should mean that the increased population would mean a lower increase in cars on the road. You can get to Downtown, UVic/Gordon Head, Camosun, Esquimalt, Oak Bay, and Hillside without having to change buses.
The location is also a very good one for access out of via car - Hwy #1 is right at hand and Hwy #17 is not far away. You can be in most locations in Greater Victoria rather quickly.
There are more areas in the neighbourhood that could be redeveloped for more businesses, retail and residential. The wedge of land between Hwy #1, Burnside and Tillicum is rife for redevelopment. The northern chunk is a very badly built and maintained condo development. Frankly the whole development needs to be pulled down. I would suggest that all the owners be offered units in a new development in return for selling the site. Saanich should allow a much higher density on the location.
The whole wedge is about 12 acres in size - large enough to allow for a lot of commercial, retail and residential construction. With enough density allowed, the location could house 2000 people and offer 600 000 sq feet of both retail and commercial space.
I would construct a large pedestrian overpass across to Tillicum Mall - 20 to 30 feet across and plants and landscaping.
Finally, the area could use some sort of late night locations - a good bar or nightclub would be beneficial.
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