Given the success of the Galloping Goose, would it not make more sense to change the E and N line into a trail for bikes and walking? Certainly this would carry more commuters than the trains ever would.
This would also create great urban - suburban walking and biking trails in Duncan, Nanaimo, Parksville and Qualicum and in the Comox valley. It would also create a wonderful trail to connect the Alberni valley to the east side of the island and make hiking - biking a bigger tourism option.
Another 300+ km of trails to add to the Trans-Canada Trail. So many more connections and options for people to get active.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Top Ten Reasons Not to Amalgamate
10 More local councilors means more politicians in training for provincial politics.
9 Divided we rule – no need to ever worry about coherent action happening to screw up senior levels of government
8 Local mayors are preparing for the second coming by forming a new 13 disciples group, though disagree on who will be Judas.
7 Cooperation and amalgamation is a communist plot
6 Cooperation and amalgamation is a capitalist plot
5 Since the province and the feds cut taxes we need to make up for the excess money in people’s pockets and make sure it still gets sucked into some level of government.
4 Help keep UBCM convention solvent by sending 80 more delegates than needed each and every year.
3 The municipal governments created as a make work project for lawyers with 13 sets of bylaws
2 Local mayors are concerned about other municipal governments in Canada and worried that a unified Victoria will carry too much clout and be taken seriously to the detriment of other towns getting more than their fair share.
1 Money, money, money, must be funny in a local taxpayers world.
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
Real Estate Market has Turned
While it has been coming for some time, the latest sales figures from the Victoria Real Estate Board shows all the evidence that the market has stopped. There have been signals on and off for the last year that a stall was coming, but it is here now.
The first signal that something was changing came in 2006 with large number of properties on the market - the sales were not soaking up the new ones coming on the market. One reason for this is that in 2006 a lot of people in the region cashed in on their houses and moved to something bigger and better. Problem is that each one of these people had to sell a house as well.
Historically the number of houses on the market is at its lowest in the middle of the winter. The fall of 2006 saw a large drop in properties on the market, but the number of houses on the market rebounded quickly. There was a drop again last fall, but the numbers for February show that there were almost 3400 properties on the market, not far short of the peak in 2007 of just under 3600 and close to the 2006 peak.
Sales are lagging. February 2008 had 10% less sales than February 2007 even though there were over 10% more on the market. Sales in Feb 2006 and 2005 were also higher than this last February.
Let us look now only at single family homes. 295 were sold last month, 349 in February of 2007 and 332 a year before. To put a morbid spin on this, that means less commissions for realtors.
Prices will manage to hold for some time because people are now convinced their houses are a worth a fortune and will not accept a large drop from their asking price. What will happen is that as the number of sales slows, the number of houses on the market will also drop as the speculative sellers will leave the market.
In the short term, the sudden number of houses coming onto the market in January and February will have put a downward pressure on housing prices. I can already see evidence of this. A year ago there literally was nothing on the market as a single family house for under $400 000 that was not tiny or a dump. I looked today and there are a host of houses on the market for under $400 000, though almost all of them are on major roads and not desirable from that perspective. These are the sort of houses that are the first to suffer in a downturn.
With so many houses on the market, the buyers are going to put a lot more energy into bargaining. I would expect some lowball offers to come in and to be accepted. In February, for each property sold two more came onto the market - this is a sign of a loose market. January was even worse, almost three came onto the market for each one that sold.
Supply and demand is going to take hold and is going to push house prices downwards. How far down? My estimate is that over the next 24 months the Victoria area will see a fall to about $400 000 for the average single family home, about 30%. I would not put a drop of close to 50% into the realm of the impossible.
So as someone that bought a house in 2007, where does leave me? Realistically I do not expect to see any improvement in the value of the house we bought for a decade or more.
The first signal that something was changing came in 2006 with large number of properties on the market - the sales were not soaking up the new ones coming on the market. One reason for this is that in 2006 a lot of people in the region cashed in on their houses and moved to something bigger and better. Problem is that each one of these people had to sell a house as well.
Historically the number of houses on the market is at its lowest in the middle of the winter. The fall of 2006 saw a large drop in properties on the market, but the number of houses on the market rebounded quickly. There was a drop again last fall, but the numbers for February show that there were almost 3400 properties on the market, not far short of the peak in 2007 of just under 3600 and close to the 2006 peak.
Sales are lagging. February 2008 had 10% less sales than February 2007 even though there were over 10% more on the market. Sales in Feb 2006 and 2005 were also higher than this last February.
Let us look now only at single family homes. 295 were sold last month, 349 in February of 2007 and 332 a year before. To put a morbid spin on this, that means less commissions for realtors.
Prices will manage to hold for some time because people are now convinced their houses are a worth a fortune and will not accept a large drop from their asking price. What will happen is that as the number of sales slows, the number of houses on the market will also drop as the speculative sellers will leave the market.
In the short term, the sudden number of houses coming onto the market in January and February will have put a downward pressure on housing prices. I can already see evidence of this. A year ago there literally was nothing on the market as a single family house for under $400 000 that was not tiny or a dump. I looked today and there are a host of houses on the market for under $400 000, though almost all of them are on major roads and not desirable from that perspective. These are the sort of houses that are the first to suffer in a downturn.
With so many houses on the market, the buyers are going to put a lot more energy into bargaining. I would expect some lowball offers to come in and to be accepted. In February, for each property sold two more came onto the market - this is a sign of a loose market. January was even worse, almost three came onto the market for each one that sold.
Supply and demand is going to take hold and is going to push house prices downwards. How far down? My estimate is that over the next 24 months the Victoria area will see a fall to about $400 000 for the average single family home, about 30%. I would not put a drop of close to 50% into the realm of the impossible.
So as someone that bought a house in 2007, where does leave me? Realistically I do not expect to see any improvement in the value of the house we bought for a decade or more.
Freecycle
Freecycle is a quit amazing thing. It is a Yahoo group that allows people to post messages about things they are trying to get rid of. Everything offered is for free and I have had some interesting success of late.
In the past I have given away a dog house, garden tools, National Geographics and other things. I have managed to get from people on the list chairs, a couch, several TVs, gardening things and more. It has been worth paying attention to what is on offer.
In the last few weeks I have picked up a wooden folding chair that only needs to be cleaned up, about 80 to 90 bricks I will use in the garden, and an amazing amount of Warhammer figures.
I like this non commodity process for moving usable goods around. Too often in our society we are very quick to throw out things because we no longer need it. The effort to sell it is not worth it and most of us do not want to spend time looking for a home for stuff. Freecycle is a good way to move things on to new homes.
In a similar vein, there is the free page on Used Victoria.
The internet is allowing us new avenues to keep goods from being disposed of early. I wonder how much we are saving in society by using the internet to keep goods in use longer?
On a related question, how much are we saving in our society by having direct sales via the internet? Anything that reduces the margins of retailers is a good thing for a society and selling second goods - or giving them away - on the internet hits at the retailer bottomline.
In the past I have given away a dog house, garden tools, National Geographics and other things. I have managed to get from people on the list chairs, a couch, several TVs, gardening things and more. It has been worth paying attention to what is on offer.
In the last few weeks I have picked up a wooden folding chair that only needs to be cleaned up, about 80 to 90 bricks I will use in the garden, and an amazing amount of Warhammer figures.
I like this non commodity process for moving usable goods around. Too often in our society we are very quick to throw out things because we no longer need it. The effort to sell it is not worth it and most of us do not want to spend time looking for a home for stuff. Freecycle is a good way to move things on to new homes.
In a similar vein, there is the free page on Used Victoria.
The internet is allowing us new avenues to keep goods from being disposed of early. I wonder how much we are saving in society by using the internet to keep goods in use longer?
On a related question, how much are we saving in our society by having direct sales via the internet? Anything that reduces the margins of retailers is a good thing for a society and selling second goods - or giving them away - on the internet hits at the retailer bottomline.
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Saxe Point Park
I went with my boys to Saxe Point Park yesterday after school. They enjoyed being blown around in the wind.
Monday, March 03, 2008
Yard Cleanup
Finally with a weekend that was sunny and there were no events going on elsewhere, we had a chance to work in the yard. We managed to put together a full pile of branches for the city to pick up this week. The new front garden bed was further worked on and the bulbs we planted in the fall are beginning to come up. The Maddock street fenceline has revealed a space for a flowerbed all along it. This had been hidden under the overgrown shrubs along the length of the fence.
The large bin we have from Victoria Community Composting is full to the brim - 360 litres of yard materials. The company offers a great service, once a month they come by and haul away your compostables, which can include fairly large branches, once a month and you get a 20 litre bag of finished compost. The service costs $20 a month, but I find it more than worth it because of the hassles they take away. I still have a classic black composter, but it only gets some of the overflow.
I have started the first lettuce seedlings indoors and want to try and get a good rotation going. I would like to have us have a head available per day from mid April till early November.
The veggie bed is going to need a lot of work the next time the weather gets nice again. My plan is to make 4x4 beds and work on a decent harvest for this year. I would like to get a lot of strawberries in place along with raspberries. I am not sure yet on what vegetables.
I need to also start on the chicken coop. From the materials that I have from the one I salvaged from the house on Earl Grey Street, I should have everything I need. I would like to have chickens in place my mid May. I think I should have 4, but part of me wants to go to 6. With four I should be getting close to two dozen a week, with six this rises to three. Our use is about one and a half dozen a week at the moment. Four will not really offer me the overflow I would like to have. I would like to be able to give eggs to friends, family and neighbours.
Ultimately I would like to getting enough fresh fruit, vegetables and eggs from the yard to be able to dispense with having to shop for any of it for much of the summer.
I also spend a long time on the weekend working on the flooring for the attic - I needed enough dry weather to be able to work outside with the wood. The salvaged fir flooring needs to be gone through and have all the broken bits cut out of it. The shards of the old fir are being burned each night in the fireplace, I managed to get it hot enough the one night to melt the glass on the fireplace doors....
Pictures and more details on the yard to come in the following weeks.
The large bin we have from Victoria Community Composting is full to the brim - 360 litres of yard materials. The company offers a great service, once a month they come by and haul away your compostables, which can include fairly large branches, once a month and you get a 20 litre bag of finished compost. The service costs $20 a month, but I find it more than worth it because of the hassles they take away. I still have a classic black composter, but it only gets some of the overflow.
I have started the first lettuce seedlings indoors and want to try and get a good rotation going. I would like to have us have a head available per day from mid April till early November.
The veggie bed is going to need a lot of work the next time the weather gets nice again. My plan is to make 4x4 beds and work on a decent harvest for this year. I would like to get a lot of strawberries in place along with raspberries. I am not sure yet on what vegetables.
I need to also start on the chicken coop. From the materials that I have from the one I salvaged from the house on Earl Grey Street, I should have everything I need. I would like to have chickens in place my mid May. I think I should have 4, but part of me wants to go to 6. With four I should be getting close to two dozen a week, with six this rises to three. Our use is about one and a half dozen a week at the moment. Four will not really offer me the overflow I would like to have. I would like to be able to give eggs to friends, family and neighbours.
Ultimately I would like to getting enough fresh fruit, vegetables and eggs from the yard to be able to dispense with having to shop for any of it for much of the summer.
I also spend a long time on the weekend working on the flooring for the attic - I needed enough dry weather to be able to work outside with the wood. The salvaged fir flooring needs to be gone through and have all the broken bits cut out of it. The shards of the old fir are being burned each night in the fireplace, I managed to get it hot enough the one night to melt the glass on the fireplace doors....
Pictures and more details on the yard to come in the following weeks.
Saturday, March 01, 2008
Spencer Road Interchange
I drove up the Malahat to get some rocks for the garden today which meant I had to drive past the site of the protests about the Spencer Road Interchange and the protests against the whole Bear Mountain development aka Skirt Mountain or Spaet.
I had a look, the cutting and work was very well done, certainly of the highest quality. The impact on the environment seems to be minimal and possibly unmeasurable on the macro regional level. The bog was clearly avoided and seems like it will continue fine where it is.
I can understand some of the arguments about not wanting to see more sprawl, but I can not reconcile them with the reality. Bear Mountain is certainly a better use of land than the proposed Westhills. The one reality that needs to be recognized is that we need to build a lot more houses in this region to bring down the price of housing. Houses means the infrastructure for them.
I first moved to Victoria in 1983. At that time there was about 225 000 people in the region, now it is 325 000. This is almost a 50% increase in 25 years. At the same time we have not seen a 50% increase in land with houses on it. Certainly there has been very little development of more blacktop. We have seen only a few kn of freeway like construction in the region and almost no new roads at all other than servicing houses directly within a development.
If the mentality of the 1950s to 70s had prevailed, we would have a freeway from Swartz Bay to downtown and another one from downtown to Duncan.
The reality is that the people are here and they are in cars and they need to be able to get around. The interchange at Spencer road along with four laning the highway to the other side of the Malahat need to occur. The impact on the environment of these actions will be minimal.
I had a look, the cutting and work was very well done, certainly of the highest quality. The impact on the environment seems to be minimal and possibly unmeasurable on the macro regional level. The bog was clearly avoided and seems like it will continue fine where it is.
I can understand some of the arguments about not wanting to see more sprawl, but I can not reconcile them with the reality. Bear Mountain is certainly a better use of land than the proposed Westhills. The one reality that needs to be recognized is that we need to build a lot more houses in this region to bring down the price of housing. Houses means the infrastructure for them.
I first moved to Victoria in 1983. At that time there was about 225 000 people in the region, now it is 325 000. This is almost a 50% increase in 25 years. At the same time we have not seen a 50% increase in land with houses on it. Certainly there has been very little development of more blacktop. We have seen only a few kn of freeway like construction in the region and almost no new roads at all other than servicing houses directly within a development.
If the mentality of the 1950s to 70s had prevailed, we would have a freeway from Swartz Bay to downtown and another one from downtown to Duncan.
The reality is that the people are here and they are in cars and they need to be able to get around. The interchange at Spencer road along with four laning the highway to the other side of the Malahat need to occur. The impact on the environment of these actions will be minimal.
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