Given that the bridge is not very relevant to most of the people that live in the City Victoria but is crucial for people in Esquimalt and View Royal, why is it that the City is bearing the full burden of the bridge?
Saanich is not expected to be responsible for Highway #17, Langford is not responsible for Highway #1, but it is up to Victoria to deal with the Johnson Street Bridge. This bridge is crucial to the whole region, but only about 25% of the regional population is expected to pay. The City is clearly going to go forward with the bridge, it is time for the other 12 local governments in the region to come to the table and pay for the bridge. The CRD has a moral obligation to pay for 75% of the local costs for this bridge.
If the other communities are not willing to contribute to the Johnson Street Bridge, then Victoria should refuse to contribute to any CRD projects to the extent of the cost of the Johnson Street bridge.
The idea that a $63 000 000 ball park estimate (the range of costs is $55 - $75 million if there are no unforseen problems) is going to be solely borne by Victoria is unfair and unreasonable.
Has anyone looked at the impact of building a much bigger Point Ellice bridge for traffic movement and getting rid of the Johnson Street Bridge completely? I think this is a much smarter traffic management solution and gets rid of the whole need for a bridge that opens. I guess I just feel that the whole process has not looked at what it is we need and who will pay. No one has considered innovative approaches to the the Johnson Street Bridge.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
The Johnson Street Bridge Replacement
We have another nine days to give comments to the city of Victoria on the proposed replacement bridge design for the Johnson Street Bridge.
There are open houses at city hall on the following days:
There are displays up at numerous locations around town here is the upcoming list:
And of course the three designs are available online.
I have looked at the three designs I find none of them visually stunning or exciting. All we are being asked about is the aesthetics of the bridge and not about any of the details of what the bridge will provide and how. At this point I could really care less about any of the looks as none of them makes me say WOW. What I want input into is the fundamental questions of what we want to accomplish with this bridge and what is needed to do this.
My big bugbear is this insistence of the retention of a rail link over the bridge. This is an expense that is not needed. Have the E&N terminal in Vic West at the roundhouse and open up the space being used by the rail line for other uses and reduce the cost of the the bridge.
There are those out there wanting to retain the rail link in hopes of getting rail based transit on the E&N. I believe this is unrealistic to expect in the next generation anywhere in the region and never going to happen on the existing E&N line. To build for something that some people hope for is a waste of money and resources.
Commuter rail is being touted to benefit people on the Westshore. If they want this rail line, they should cover that extra cost of the bridge and not place it on the taxpayers of Victoria. The Island Rail Corridor Foundation should come up with the cash to maintain the line over the bridge.
I am still not at all convinced that the Johnson Street Bridge is what needs to be replaced. When I look at the traffic in the region, I think it would make a lot more sense to build a bigger Point Ellice Bridge to allow a four lane Bay Street from Government through to Esquimalt Road. This would allow a lot more traffic to avoid going into the downtown core. A twin to the existing Point Ellice Bridge would be much cheaper to build than a replacement Johnson Street Bridge, even if one has to spend $25 000 000 refurbishing the existing Johnson Street Bridge.
My concerns lead me back over and over again to the rushed nature of the Johnson Street Bridge project. We have not had a debate on what sort of connections we have and need over the Gorge/Inner Harbour. We have not had any debate on how we want to move traffic from Esquimalt/Vic West to the downtown core.
We spend ages debating the replacement of the Memorial Arena and this was a project less than half the size of the bridge project. The Johnson Street Bridge is something we are being asked to accept with virtually no debate because of a manufactured crisis brought about by a funding timetable. This is simply a badly managed process and will lead to the city spending a lot more money than needed.
I am concerned that the full cost of the bridge will fall on the City of Victoria alone, this is from their website:
There are open houses at city hall on the following days:
- Tuesday, September 15th 7pm – 9pm
- Monday, September 21 7pm – 9pm
There are displays up at numerous locations around town here is the upcoming list:
- Fernwood Evening Market, Tuesday September 15
- Caffe Fantastico (Quadra Village), Wednesday September 16
- Moka House (Shoal Point), Wednesday September 16
- Cornerstone Café (Fernwood), Thursday September 17
- James Bay Day (Irving Park), Saturday September 19
- Moss Street Market, Saturday September 19
- Red Dragon Bistro, Monday September 21
And of course the three designs are available online.
I have looked at the three designs I find none of them visually stunning or exciting. All we are being asked about is the aesthetics of the bridge and not about any of the details of what the bridge will provide and how. At this point I could really care less about any of the looks as none of them makes me say WOW. What I want input into is the fundamental questions of what we want to accomplish with this bridge and what is needed to do this.
My big bugbear is this insistence of the retention of a rail link over the bridge. This is an expense that is not needed. Have the E&N terminal in Vic West at the roundhouse and open up the space being used by the rail line for other uses and reduce the cost of the the bridge.
There are those out there wanting to retain the rail link in hopes of getting rail based transit on the E&N. I believe this is unrealistic to expect in the next generation anywhere in the region and never going to happen on the existing E&N line. To build for something that some people hope for is a waste of money and resources.
Commuter rail is being touted to benefit people on the Westshore. If they want this rail line, they should cover that extra cost of the bridge and not place it on the taxpayers of Victoria. The Island Rail Corridor Foundation should come up with the cash to maintain the line over the bridge.
I am still not at all convinced that the Johnson Street Bridge is what needs to be replaced. When I look at the traffic in the region, I think it would make a lot more sense to build a bigger Point Ellice Bridge to allow a four lane Bay Street from Government through to Esquimalt Road. This would allow a lot more traffic to avoid going into the downtown core. A twin to the existing Point Ellice Bridge would be much cheaper to build than a replacement Johnson Street Bridge, even if one has to spend $25 000 000 refurbishing the existing Johnson Street Bridge.
My concerns lead me back over and over again to the rushed nature of the Johnson Street Bridge project. We have not had a debate on what sort of connections we have and need over the Gorge/Inner Harbour. We have not had any debate on how we want to move traffic from Esquimalt/Vic West to the downtown core.
We spend ages debating the replacement of the Memorial Arena and this was a project less than half the size of the bridge project. The Johnson Street Bridge is something we are being asked to accept with virtually no debate because of a manufactured crisis brought about by a funding timetable. This is simply a badly managed process and will lead to the city spending a lot more money than needed.
I am concerned that the full cost of the bridge will fall on the City of Victoria alone, this is from their website:
Q: How will the City fund the new bridge if provincial and federal funding falls through?
A: If the City is not successful in securing stimulus funding, it will seek approval to borrow the full amount but will only spend what is needed.
As a federal election looms and BC and Canada have not come to terms on the stimulus package, I highly doubt that the money will be there to cost share this project. This is a lot of debt for the city take on.
The Greater Victoria Housing Market
The stats for sales of housing in Victoria for August shows a drop from the number of sales in July, I am not surprised at this drop. My take on the market is that the fall/winter of 2008/09 had a lot of people stay away from the market and then come on stream as a bunch in April/May. A lot of people waited and then rushed into the market.
It is only in August that year to date sales in 2009 have passed the sales in 2008. As it seems to be trending, the total sales in 2009 look to reach 7000, other than last year, the lowest level of sales in a decade.
As it stands, we still have a large supply of houses on the market. At 3500 active MLS listings in Greater Victoria, we still are at much higher levels of stock than we have seen in years other than since the spring of 2008. This is a high level of stock on the market even with all the 'speculative sales' off of the market - people are no longer listing to see if they can get a crazy offer for their house.
The average value of single family home was definitely impacted by the sales in Oak Bay of some expensive house, the Oak Bay average in August was $822 915 on 20 sales and a median of $677 550. You factor out Oak Bay and the average price in the region for single family homes falls $13000, around 2%, to $583K. June and July also saw high end sales in Oak Bay.
September is normally a month that we see a drop off in sales but the numbers for this September will be boosted a bit because of a late Labour day. The need to have sales completed and allow for moves by Labour day are crucial to a lot of single family home sales. The first week of September had about the same number of sales as weeks in August, about 183. Last week this was 140.
We had the latest possible Labour day this year meaning that the summer real estate sales cycle had an extra week. Based on 140 sales last week and 181 the week before, this should mean that September will have about 600 sales in the month.
At 140 sales per week, we currently have a housing stock of close to six months. In May/June the housing stock was about four months.
As sales decline in the winter, stock to sales ratio will continue to rise even as property listings expire. By the end of November the number of sales has historically been around 100 a week for about ten weeks.
While I have no proof, I believe we are going to see a winter 2009/10 that will be similar in sales to last year. I believe the market will sour dramatically as the weather turns.
It is only in August that year to date sales in 2009 have passed the sales in 2008. As it seems to be trending, the total sales in 2009 look to reach 7000, other than last year, the lowest level of sales in a decade.
As it stands, we still have a large supply of houses on the market. At 3500 active MLS listings in Greater Victoria, we still are at much higher levels of stock than we have seen in years other than since the spring of 2008. This is a high level of stock on the market even with all the 'speculative sales' off of the market - people are no longer listing to see if they can get a crazy offer for their house.
The average value of single family home was definitely impacted by the sales in Oak Bay of some expensive house, the Oak Bay average in August was $822 915 on 20 sales and a median of $677 550. You factor out Oak Bay and the average price in the region for single family homes falls $13000, around 2%, to $583K. June and July also saw high end sales in Oak Bay.
September is normally a month that we see a drop off in sales but the numbers for this September will be boosted a bit because of a late Labour day. The need to have sales completed and allow for moves by Labour day are crucial to a lot of single family home sales. The first week of September had about the same number of sales as weeks in August, about 183. Last week this was 140.
We had the latest possible Labour day this year meaning that the summer real estate sales cycle had an extra week. Based on 140 sales last week and 181 the week before, this should mean that September will have about 600 sales in the month.
At 140 sales per week, we currently have a housing stock of close to six months. In May/June the housing stock was about four months.
As sales decline in the winter, stock to sales ratio will continue to rise even as property listings expire. By the end of November the number of sales has historically been around 100 a week for about ten weeks.
While I have no proof, I believe we are going to see a winter 2009/10 that will be similar in sales to last year. I believe the market will sour dramatically as the weather turns.
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