It is hard to be certain what the turnout will be but there are a few factors that I think will make it higher than typical for a by-election:
- close to 10,000 people signed the petition for the referendum
- at least four of the candidates will touch base with significant numbers of people
Referendum
Of the roughly 10,000 people that signed the petition, I would be surprised if we did not see a high turn out of these people and they overwhelmingly vote No. I see No starting at 7000 votes before we consider anything else. I am basing this number on some data I have managed to gather on the intentions of people that signed the petition.
If assume the next 7,000 to 11,000 split 50/50, we get a landslide win for No. If we were to get a 60/40 split for Yes, we end still end up with a strong win for No.
Any turn out of less than 18,000 effectively means there is a No win. The Yes side needs a turn out of more than 20,000 and a 2 to 1 Yes to No vote in the general public that did not sign the petition.
From information I have been able to gather from various sources, the only area of the City that Yes has a lead is on the west side of the bridge, in all other neighbourhoods No is leading.
My current estimate is that the result will be:
- Yes - 4000
- No - 11,000
These numbers can change if there is a strong scare campaign from the City and therefore Yes benefits or if strong No campaign appears on the ground and raises the No vote.
By-election
My current estimate is that the candidates will finish in the following order:
- Barry Hobbis
- Steve Filipovic
- Marianne Alto
- Susan Woods
- Rose Henry
- Paul Brown
- Hugh Kruzel
- George Sirk
- Saul Andersen
- Pedro Mora
- Rimas Tumasonis
At this time I see Barry Hobbis as the odds on favorite with Steve Filipovic having a chance to surprise people. Marianne is a longshot and Susan Woods is a hail Mary longshot. Everyone else has no hope. All this is assuming nothing dramatic happens and the campaigns continue as I have been told they will.
3 comments:
I think your ranking will be proved accurate although I would place Alto slightly above Filopovic based on the assumption Alto is also doing some aggressive campaigning (is she?] and that she has the gravitas of endorsements from traditional left sources like the NDP and CUPE. There is only so much Steve can do running his own show.
I am basing Marianne Alto's campaign on what I know about the campaign and their plans based on their current plans for the rest of the campaign.
I am also basing the result on the fact that the VCE was ineffectual in campaigning in 2005 for council and that the 2009 NDP provincial campaigns in the City ridings were weak on the ground.
Steve Filipovic is out campaigning Marianne Alto and he will have the Green name on the ballot which will sway many people voting on the referendum and not knowing how they will vote for council when they have never heard of the candidates.
Chandler's pseudo-endorsement of Alto in the current Monday will be beneficial to Marianne and will hurt Steve. Chandler was very popular with the people I met door knocking in 2008 and her opinion will be influential in some circles.
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