Thursday, February 19, 2015

Vancouver Island Federal Election Results

Seats won by the parties in each election
    Right NDP  Libs Green
2011  2    3    0     1
2008  3    2    1     0
2006  2    3    1     0
2004  3    1    2     0
2000  5    0    1     0
1997  5    0    1     0  
1993  5    0    1     0
1988  0    6    0     0 
1984  3    2    0     0 
1980  2    3    0     -
1979  3    2    0     -
1974  2    1    1     -
1972  2    2    0     -
1968  0    1    3     -

TOTAL VOTE FOR EACH PARTY
Elec NDP Grn Lib CPC/Ref PC Ind/Oth
2011 146,878 56,751 30,125 146,783     1,395
2008 114,032 35,665 67,855 142,039     2,245
2006 132,324 24,155 83,575 124,645     3,033
2004 111,322 35,182 89,248 108,848     2,241
2000   40,367 12,291 88,094 140,877 25,512   7,486
1997   65,325   8,670 79,350 130,561 16,319   3,844
1993   63,402   3,463 87,223 127,405 33,601 24,903(1)
1988 138,695  3,012 49,742  26,695 94,076  3,994

Comments on the elections

1988 - All six seats were won by the NDP.  They won the seats not because of vote splitting between the Reform party and the PCs but because NDP support on the Island was up a lot.

1993 - For the first time in decades the NDP won no sests on Vancouver Island, they remain shut out for the next two elections as well.  In 1993 the National Party of Canada did relatively well on Vancouver Island.  Vancouver Island was relatively stable for the 1993, 1997 and 2000 elections

2004 - The vote for the right went from 166,389 to 108,848.  The 57,541 drop in vote is nicely mirrored by a rise of 70,955 in the NDP vote.  Even though the NDP topped the polls, they only won a single seat.
The Liberal vote overall is static overall but this masks that boost that came in Esquimalt Juan de Fuca from Keith Martin.   On the rest of Vancouver Island the Liberals lost around 7,000 votes.

2006 The NDP topped the polls again and gained two seats

2008 - The Liberal vote dropped almost 16,000.  This in election where the Liberals gained significant support in Saanich-gulf Islands, a gain of 8,000.   It means 24,000 Liberal votes were lost in four ridings

2011 - The Greens pulled ahead of the Liberals for the first time in votes and seats, though the Green support is very much more concentrated into one seat.

This is the first time since the 1988 election in which the Liberals won no seats on Vancouver Island

2015 - There will be seven Island seats this time.   Four current MPs are running again though one of them in in a riding that covered much of his old riding.   Out of the 28 total candidates that will be running for one of the four mayor parties, 17 have been nominated.   The Greens and NDP are at six candidates, the Liberals three and Conservatives two.

NOTES
(1) In 1993 20,274 people in Vancouver Island voted for the National Party, 10.8% of the total vote the party achieved in that election.
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