Monday, October 13, 2008

Delays in getting more info out

Hello there all

I will update the info on all the candidates later this weekend. I am in the middle of thanksgiving dinner and such - details on the meal (with pics) will be on my food blog.

I will be trying for an update on the federal election in general at BC Iconoclast today and tomorrow.

On the federal election, my large Jack McClintock sign was ripped down last night. The visceral hatred of the Conservatives in this election makes me sad. A term of Stephen Harper as prime minister has shown the Conservatives are actually very moderate centrists, hardly to the right of Paul Martin. The primary difference between the parties seems to be the Conservatives are more likely to act on what they promise than the Liberals and are more open and transparent as a government. If you think that this is not the case, your memory of Chretien and Martin as PMs is fading quickly,

Locally I predict the following federal election results:

Esquimalt Juan de Fuca

  • Troy de Souza - Conservative - 35%
  • Keith Martin - Liberal - 30%
  • Jennifer Burgis - NDP - 25%
  • Brian Gordon - Green - 10%

Victoria

  • Denise Savoie - NDP - 35%
  • Jack McClintock - Conservative - 30%
  • Anne Park Shannon - Liberal - 15%
  • Adam Saab - Green - 15%

Saanich Gulf Islands

  • Gary Lunn - Conservative - 40%
  • Briony Penn - Liberal - 30%
  • Andrew Lewis - Green - 20%
  • Julian West - NDP - 10%

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think you've overstated Troy DeSouza's result. Recent polling has shown a downward trend for the Conservatives and NDP, and an upward trend for the Liberals in BC. Keith Martin's personal popularity bolstering it will likely seal the deal. Not that I will be voting for him, I'll be voting for Brian Gordon. I suspect it'll be more like Martin 35%, DeSouza and Burgis both around 25%, Gordon at 14%, and a 1% "other" vote.

Steven Hurdle

Anonymous said...

I agree with Steven on this one. While candidates rarely have a large impact, I find Kieth to be the exception to the rule. The one race that I'm interested in is the Saanich-Gulf Islands. With Julien West's name still on the ballot it will be interesting to see if Gary Lunn can hold of a united left.

Anonymous said...

Well, it was nowhere near as decisive in Esquimalt-JDF as either Bernard or I expected, apparently. :) Keith Martin has now won 6 elections under three different banners, which has got to be some kind of record.