Wednesday, November 05, 2008

The lay of the land - Victoria

The mayor's race is between Dean Fortin and Rob Reid. I am not going to call this one at this time, but I will note that the race has been completely overshadowed by the Canadian and US elections. I would love to see some fire happen in the campaign, but I do not expect it.

I am personally backing Rob Reid and have a sign up for him at the corner of Maddock and Harriet.

The council race should see all five incumbents get re-elected: Chris Coleman, Geoff Young, Sonya Chandler, Pam Madoff and Charlayne Thornton-Joe. I support four of the five, Pam Madoff is too strongly tied to the NDP and I currently do not see the NDP as a source of innovation and problem solving. Pam has also been a bit too opposed to new ideas that come before council for my liking.

The people with the chance - this is the most interesting set of candidates because three of them will get elected and the race is really between all of them. They are ordered in my rough estimate of how they will finish in the race.

Lynn Hunter - the former MP and has a strong name recognition. She is also running on a slate with Pam Madoff and Dean Fortin. She will likely win because of those two factors.

Phillipe Lucas is running a Green with Sonya Chandler and came close to be elected last time. I see him getting elected to council on the power of their campaign and the Green label on the ballot.

Peita VanDyke has some name recognition from her time on council and is well known in James Bay. I have seen little of her campaign, but I did not expect to see her as we are in different worlds.

Robert Randall comes in with a strong support of a lot of downtown residents and with numerous people in the business community. He also benefits from cooperating with Chris Coleman, Geoff Young Charlayne Thorton-Joe in the campaign

John Luton has the the backing of many in the NDP, the cycling community and the VLC endorsement. He is known for his work for cycling. He has a decent shot of getting elected.

Wayne Hollohan has been campaigning hard in his second try. If he can break out of Fairfield and get people in the rest of the city to know him he has a decent shop at election.

Richard Park is young and UVic student. He is taking the campaign more seriously than anyone else I have see so far. He has raised enough money to have a real campaign. In person he is passionate about the city, his website is too staid. Expect to see him on the streets and hear him on the radio.

John Farquharson is campaigning hard to get elected, he is getting his name out there. I think he will place well but will not get elected.

Susan Woods is known for her radio show on CFAX, but see seems to be getting drowned out in the race. She would make a great member of council, but I think her odds of winning are getting slim.

Tim Van Alstine - with a field so crowded, he is not likely to do nearly as well as many people had hoped.

Barry Hobbis has put some effort into his campaign and has network of supporters in the business community that want to see an improvement with the situation downtown. His odds are slim unless he does something dramatic to get his name out there.

Simon Nattrass, he benefitted from publicity of his run for mayor. He decided in the end to run for council and should do better than most people would expect, though still a long way out of the money.

Joesph Boutilier, the 18 year old running and he is campaigning a lot. He is not realistically going to get elected.

Jane Lunt did one term on council in the past, I have no idea what her campaign is doing but in testing her name with some people, no one seems to remember her on council

Chris Munkasci is a good candidate, but he is being lost in the sea of candidates.

Rose Henry is working harder to get elected than last time but is unlikely to place in the top 20.
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