Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Oak Bay Gordon Head

The Oak Bay Gordon Head riding is remaining largely in the same form that it had the last few times around. There is some area that has been shaved off on the west is in Victoria Swan Lake.

Ida Chong is running for the fourth time for the BC Liberals.

Jessica Van der Veen is running for the NDP.

A Joel Laforet is listed as being a candidate for Refederation BC. Steven Johns is the candidate for the Greens.

The redistribution makes the riding results for 2005 slightly better for the NDP.

In 1991 and 1996 Elizabeth Cull was the NDP candidate. In 2001 and 2005 Charley Beresford was the NDP candidate. Both of them were well known in those elections. Jessica Van der Veen is an unknown.

2005 there was a lot of anger in the civil service towards the government, but not enough to let the NDP win.

It is now four years later and the anger in Victoria is dramatically less than last time.

I do not see any danger of Ida Chong being defeated here on May 12th. If Ida Chong loses here, the polling numbers in BC have to almost completely reverse from where they have been. The Liberals need to be at 40% and the NDP at 45%. I can not see this happening.

I see the result happening as following:
  • Ida Chong 51%
  • Jessica Van der Veen 37%
  • Green Candidate 11%
  • Joel Laforet 1%
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