Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Victoria Real Estate Board May sales figures

The VREB has released their monthly statistics on home sales in the CRD.  The numbers look weak, at 671 units sold in May, this is the lowest level for a May some years now.

The normal sales pattern in Greater Victoria is for the number of sales to climb each month till July and then to level off before dropping in the mid to late fall with a trough in December/January.   This year we have seen a decline in the number of sales from March to May.   This is a pattern we have not seen before.

At the same time as the month to month decline has happened, we have seen a dramatic rise in the number of units on the market.  In May we reached 4500 units on the market, just short of the peak of 4700 in September 2008.   The more remarkable thing is how quickly we rose from just over 2500 in December to 4500 now.   This is the fastest rise in units on the market we have seen in this city.

Based on the number of sales in May and a historical average of one in eight sales being in May, we are looking at 5300 to 5500 total sales this year.  This would make 2010 one of the worst sales years in a long time.  I do not see what could cause sales in June and July to rise dramatically from the May numbers.   Based on this estimate, we have a ten month supply of housing stock on the market.

The average price of single family home is up, but in looking through the data I see that in a number of areas this average was heavily influenced by more expensive properties selling.

Among condos, the market looks bad.  The average price in May was lower than the six month average.  In fact the average price for a condo now is roughly the same place where it was three years ago.
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