At the moment I would put Barry Hobbis as the front runner but I see Sue Woods, Marianne Alto and Steve Filipovic all having a shot.
Barry has done the most on a campaign and if he were to shift into a very high gear he could be uncatchable.
Marianne Alto is likely to be the Victoria Labour Council recommendation and this would be a benefit of a good chunk or labour and NDP supporters voting for her, but it is not enough on its own. If she campaigns with as much effort as she did in 2005, she has no real chance of getting elected.
Sue Woods, I do like her and my current plan is to be voting for her. If she campaigns as she has told me she plans on campaigning, she has a reasonable chance of winning.
Steve Filipovic is seeking to be the Green Party candidate in the race. The very name Green Party on the ballot will be worth a significant number of votes, though not enough on its own. He needs to have the Green Machine to campaign for him.
As of this point no one for any campaign has knocked on my door, all well run campaigns should be able to door knock every single family home in this city. In the next five weeks each candidate should be trying to meet at least 10,000 people in the City.
Meanwhile over in referendum land it is really hard for me to see how things are playing out. If there were an active No campaign I would betting on them to win, but Ross does not seem to have a campaign team on the issue at the moment.
The City certainly has mistepped in using public money to pay for the Yes campaign. I suspect they will get no donations for their the campaign and there will be no space for the public to be in leadership of the campaign. The campaign feels like it will be more of the same that they have done in the whole bridge process. When will they figure out that how they are dealing with the public is pissing people off and pushing buttons? People who would like to see a new bridge are going to vote No because they really dislike the lack of any meaningful consultation with the public and the patronizing way the City has talked to us. This is 2010, not 1950, we are better educated and better informed and much of the public hates being told by anyone in authority what to do.
Will it the borrowing referendum pass? At the moment I would commit to either, I think we are at a 50/50 point with the City being its own worst enemy. The City could very well do something to annoy more people and seal the fate of referendum and any new bridge.
As a quick point that needs reiterating, if the referendum fails and the City tries to go forward with a new bridge, they will setting a unique precedence in undemocratic behaviour by a local government in BC. I am looking for examples when borrowing bylaws have been defeated and the local government has gone ahead with the project anyway, I can not find any examples. If you know of one, please let me know.