Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Federal Redistribution

Right the process is underway to add six new seats to BC for the federal parliament.   The average population per riding will be 104,763 and with a population of 736,264 people living in the seven regional districts on the island, we warrant one of those seats.

2011 Census data by regional district

  • CRD              359,991
  • Cowichan Valley   80,332
  • Nanaimo          146,574
  • Alberni-Clayoquot 31,061
  • Comox Valley      63.538
  • Strathcona        43,252
  • Mount Waddington  11,506
  • Vancouver Island 736,264

The CRD currently has three MPs but warrants closer to 3.5
Nanaimo currently has two MPs and shared him with neighbouring  regional districts, they should have almost 1.5 on their own.

In looking at the numbers, here is what I think makes the most sense for the seven new ridings:

  • Vancouver Island North - the same as now but the southern end of the Comox Valley RD is moved southwards.
  • Nanaimo Alberni - takes in all of Alberni-Clayoquot RD, 13,500 people from the south end of the Comox Valley RD and 60,000 northern residents of the Nanaimo RD.
  • Nainaimo - Nanaimo city and 21,000 residents of Nanaimo RD
  • Langford-Cowichan - All of Cowichan Valley RD and the city of Langford
  • Saanich West - Westshore - all of Westshore other than Langford and 45,000 Saanich residents - this is effectively the current Esquimalt Juan de Fuca without Langford and bit more of Saanich
  • Victoria - Oak Bay - all of the city of Victoria and the municipality of Oak Bay - the change from the current Victoria riding is the loss of Cadboro Bay and the Saanich Panhandle
  • Saanich North the Islands - 55,000 Saanich residents and everyone living north of Saanich in the CRD

Effectively the Island north of the Malahat gets one more MP.

Based on these seven ridings, I would expect the NDP to win the extra riding and the island to have 4 NDP, 2 Conservatives and 1 Green.

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