2011 Census data by regional district
- CRD 359,991
- Cowichan Valley 80,332
- Nanaimo 146,574
- Alberni-Clayoquot 31,061
- Comox Valley 63.538
- Strathcona 43,252
- Mount Waddington 11,506
- Vancouver Island 736,264
The CRD currently has three MPs but warrants closer to 3.5
Nanaimo currently has two MPs and shared him with neighbouring regional districts, they should have almost 1.5 on their own.
In looking at the numbers, here is what I think makes the most sense for the seven new ridings:
- Vancouver Island North - the same as now but the southern end of the Comox Valley RD is moved southwards.
- Nanaimo Alberni - takes in all of Alberni-Clayoquot RD, 13,500 people from the south end of the Comox Valley RD and 60,000 northern residents of the Nanaimo RD.
- Nainaimo - Nanaimo city and 21,000 residents of Nanaimo RD
- Langford-Cowichan - All of Cowichan Valley RD and the city of Langford
- Saanich West - Westshore - all of Westshore other than Langford and 45,000 Saanich residents - this is effectively the current Esquimalt Juan de Fuca without Langford and bit more of Saanich
- Victoria - Oak Bay - all of the city of Victoria and the municipality of Oak Bay - the change from the current Victoria riding is the loss of Cadboro Bay and the Saanich Panhandle
- Saanich North the Islands - 55,000 Saanich residents and everyone living north of Saanich in the CRD
Effectively the Island north of the Malahat gets one more MP.
Based on these seven ridings, I would expect the NDP to win the extra riding and the island to have 4 NDP, 2 Conservatives and 1 Green.