Thursday, September 06, 2012

2008 and 2011 Federal Election Results Transposed to Proposed New Boundaries

PollMaps.ca has released a database of how the 2011 and 2008 election results would look with the proposed new Federal electoral boundaries.

Overall the changes are not very dramatic for Victoria, it only loses Vic West.

The redistribution of Saanich-Gulf Islands makes it slightly more Conservative friendly.  The area around Swan Lake that has been removed is not Conservative friendly

In the case of Esquimalt-Colwood it is now a safer NDP riding.  It has a significant change from the 2011 results because a small part of the Saanich Gulf Islands was redistributed into it and areas were removed to South Cowichan-Juan de Fuca.

The SGI areas are not Conservative friendly and in the case of 2011 there were a lot of Elizabeth May voters which boosts the Green vote in Esquimalt-Colwood more than one would expect.  Esquimalt-Colwood is a safer NDP riding.

The Langford, View Royal, Metchosin and Sooke areas taken out of Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca are the more Conservative parts of the old riding.

South Cowichan-Juan de Fuca is a clear toss up between the NDP and Conservatives.  Based on the new boundaries the NDP would have won in 2011 and the Conservatives in 2008.

 Here are the results for the CRD:
R is redistributed results E is actual election results
red means a loss and green means again through redistribution
Victoria
Elect  NDP         Cons        Libs         Green 
2011R 28702 50.49 13420 23.61  8060 14.18  6664 11.72
2011E 30679 50.78 14275 23.63  8448 13.98  7015 11.61
2008R 24942 44.55 15356 27.43  9511 16.99  5945 10.62
2008E 26443 44.61 16337 27.56 10006 16.88  6252 10.55

Saanich-Gulf Islands
Elect  NDP        Cons         Libs        Green
2011R  7259 11.28 23477 36.47  3938  6.12 29704 46.14
2011E  8185 11.89 24544 35.66  4208  6.11 31890 46.33
2008R  3123  5.17 36759 44.27 23732 39.26  6216 10.28
2008E  3667  5.69 27991 43.42 25366 39.25  6742 10.46

Esquimalt Colwood
Elect    NDP      Cons         Libs        Green
2011R 21620 40.61 19681 36.97  5334 10.02  6375 11.98
2011E 26198 40.87 25792 40.24  6439 10.05  5341  8.33
2008R 11616 23.86 16067 33.01 16371 33.63  4244  8.72
2008E 13322 22.72 19974 34.07 20042 34.18  4854  8.28

South Cowichan-Juan de Fuca - this the new 7th riding for the island so has past to compare to
Elect  NDP        Cons         Libs        Green
2011R 22327 43.13 22212 42.91  3157  6.10  3907  7.55
2008R 16594 34.51 19146 39.81  8118 16.88  4021  8.36


Proposed changes in the core - grey are current boundaries, tan color proposed new ones
Vic West to be part of Esquimalt Colwood and no longer part of Victoria
Swan Lake area to be part of Esquimalt Colwood and not Saanich Gulf Islands
I will be presenting at the commission hearing in Victoria for a very different map.  My goal for the Island will be to have the three most populous local governments on Vancouver Island not divided between ridings.  Saanich is large enough for its own riding.  Victoria and Nanaimo should not be divided up between ridings. 
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