Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Esquimalt Juan de Fuca election prediction

CTV and the Globe are doing daily polling in 45 battleground ridings in Canada, 10 of them are in BC and one of them is Esquimalt Juan de Fuca. The first three days have shown some very consistent numbers for the parties in BC. Using these numbers and applying them to Esquimalt Juan de Fuca, here is how the result would look:

  • Conservative Troy Desouza - 19500 - 32.5%
  • NDP Jennifer Burgis - 17000 - 28.3%
  • Liberal Keith Martin - 14500 - 24.2%
  • Green Brian Gordon - 7500 - 12.5%
Over three days they have surveyed about 1350 people in BC, of which 135 should have been in Esquimalt Juan de Fuca. The numbers are looking consistent and solid and so can be applied with some confidence to one riding.

At the moment things look very bad for the Liberals in BC in general and in Esquimalt Juan de Fuca in specific. In this riding things are shifting back to a traditional BC race of right versus left.

In my estimation, of the four major parties, the one with the lowest chance of winning is the Liberals with Keith Martin. He has coasted on his personal popularity and squeaked back into office the last two times with only around 35% of the vote. His campaign is much less in evidence and I wonder about how much money he has and how many volunteers. The polls show he is declining and I give him less than 5% chance of winning because his party is in decline and becoming desperate - the stink of desperation drives people away.

Troy is going to hate for saying this, the election is now his to lose. His competition is with the NDP to get soft Liberal voters ASAP. If he squeezes, he can push his totals over 20 000 votes. I estimate that he has a 55% chance of winning.

Jennifer Burgis has a chance to win, but only if she goes after Keith Martin supporters with a vengance. She needs to be campaigning door to door and in the streets 24/7. Jennifer needs to make people understand that it a race between her and Troy and the Keith Martin is a nice guy that is no longer an factor in the election. I give here a 35% chance of winning.

The Greens should be able to pick up a lot of votes in this riding, the electoral math is very good for them here. A strong four way race could mean someone winning with less than 30% of the vote - this places it within the realm of a Green being elected. The Greens also need races where the incumbent MP looks unlikely to win. This riding is their second best chance of a win in BC in 2008. 5% chance for Brian Gordon becoming the MP - much better odds anyone would have given Keith Martin in 1993 when he beat Dave Barrett.
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