Friday, September 26, 2008

Esquimalt Juan de Fuca election prediction, again

When one looks at the CTV/Globe 45 battleground ridings, there are some clear trends one can see.

First of all, the Liberals and NDP are strongly down in these ridings in BC. Secondly the Greens and Conservatives are up by an almost equal amount. One of the ten ridings in BC is West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country. I am assuming that the Liberal vote is down a long way here and the Green vote is up a lot. This calculation mutes the Liberal fall elsewhere.

In ridings that the Liberals hold, the Liberals are down the same amount they are in BC but the NDP is holding their ground. The Conservatives and Greens are up in these ridings.

The factors I am applying to Esquimalt Juan de Fuca are:

  • Conservatives up 6 percentage points
  • Liberals down 5 percentage points
  • NDP down 4 percentage points
  • Greens up 3 percentage points

Doing this gives us roughly the following result:

  • Conservative 33.5%
  • Liberal 30%
  • NDP 27%
  • Green 9%

I can hear you say that Keith Martin has a strong personal popularity. That is factored in. It is the reason he survived in 2004 and 2006. He had two very narrow wins. There is no formula I can factor in that sees his voting going up when the polling indicates otherwise for Liberal fortunes in BC. One Ekos poll of BC looked at Vancouver versus the rest of BC – the numbers were bad for the Liberals.

If Keith Martin were not the Liberal candidate in the riding, I would predict the following result:
  • Conservatives - 39%
  • NDP - 27%
  • Liberals - 20%
  • Greens - 13%
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