This riding has been a close one in most elections for the last generation.
In 2005 this riding was narrowly won by David Cubberly of the NDP, in 2001 Susan Brice won it for the BC Liberals. In the 1996 election Andrew Petter retained it for the NDP by a slim 627 votes over Frank Leonard.
The riding has been changed from last time and the changes are enough to move the 2005 results from an NDP win to a Liberal win. The Tillicum Gorge area is no longer part of the riding and this area is strongly NDP, I should know this as I live in the area.
The Liberals have Robin Adair running for them. He is well known in the business community through his work with the Chamber of Commerce. He is better known among people aged 40 and older as being a respected local news anchor. Robin will carry a lot of political weight in caucus and see him in cabinet before the end of the first term of government. The rumour last year was he that was going to run for mayor of Victoria.
The NDP have local winemaker Lana Popham running for them. Lana is getting well known for her passion for the local community, the environment and local agriculture. She was an inspired choice for the NDP, she is a breath of fresh air that the party needs if it is to really revive itself. I think she should have run for Saanich council as I think she could have done a lot more there and worked towards being mayor. The mayor of Saanich has more real power over issues than a member of the opposition.
Brian Gordon is running for the Greens - well running is a stretch. He seems to be a paper candidate for the party. I have see no evidence of his campaign. Maybe the goal is not to harm Lana Popham's chances?
Doug Christie is on the ballot again for the Western Canada Concept.
Both Robin and Lana are getting local media coverage. Robin had to field some questions about his role with the job placement program and I think handled it well.
Both campaigns are getting to the doors and getting their signs up, though the NDP seem to have the edge on real signs, the ones on private lawns.
How would I call this riding? At this point I see it finishing as follows:
- Robin Adair - 13150
- Lana Popham - 12500
- Brian Gordon - 1800
- Doug Christie - 200