Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Saanich Gulf Islands - This is truly an amazing win

So I was wrong, way off on my assumptions in the riding.  I, like most people that look at these things, did not see as a riding she could win, and we were all wrong.   Elizabeth May had what I think is the biggest win by any Green candidate in any election in the world, ever.

To give an idea of how impressive Elizabeth May's win is, in the 2010 UK General Election the UK Green leader Caroline Lucas managed to get elected in her seat of Brighton Pavilion.   But she only managed 31.3% of the vote and did not large lead in the votes.  This was a seat the Greens had managed more than 20% in the previous election and were not miles out of winning.   The win by Caroline Lucas was considered stunningly good for Green in a First Past the Post election.

So lets look at the detailed results.


  • Elizabeth May Green   31,900 (+25,158)  46.26%  (+35.81)
  • Gary Lunn Conservative 24,541 (-3,447) 35.59% (-7.84)
  • Edith Loring-Kuhanga NDP 8,198 (+4,531) 11.88% (+6.19%)
  • Renee Hetherington Liberal 4.314 (-21,053) 6.25% (-33.11)
  • TOTAL Votes     68,953 (+4,505)

The total vote went up 4500 voters in this election, that is a significant increase.

I did not think it was realistic, but it turns out many Conservatives did vote for Elizabeth May.  I was hearing about more and more of them as the election went on.   I was also getting reports of the Orange Crush in Saanich-Gulf Islands.   I work with what I have access to.

The 46.26% Elizabeth May is stunningly high percentage, almost unprecedented globally for Greens.   I will point out that Elizabeth May had to achieve something like 45% to win, based on how well Greens have done in Canada and globally, this did not seem like an achievable target.   Also the Green polling numbers nationally were doing badly.   I did see the tide was moving here way had it a 60% Lunn, 40% May odds at the end.

I am stunned at how low the Liberal vote fell, I knew they would likely come fourth, but it never occurred to me that they would note break 10%.   A scenario in which the NDP and Liberals combined could not get at least 25% of the vote seemed outside of the realm of realistic.

Factoring in the increased vote, the collapse of the Liberals and Conservatives voting for May, a scenario happened in which she won.

I have to commend the Greens on how well the campaigned for Elizabeth May, this really was a serious campaign to win and the succeeded.  The bittersweet part for the Greens is the large drop of their vote in the rest of the country.

To give you an idea how concentrated the vote was in one riding, 5.54% of the votes cast for the Green party in Canada were cast for Elizabeth May.  To give you an idea how big her vote was, she got more votes in one riding than all 28 Greens in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.  She was only 3000 vote short of what all 32 Green candidates in Atlantic Canada managed at the polls.

One final note, Elizabeth May polled more votes than any other candidate on Vancouver Island.
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