but on May 4th there will be the first announcement of a candidate for Victoria Mayor - Paul Brown.
He will be formally announcing his campaign at 11 am on Wednesday May 4th at the Downtown Victoria Marriott Hotel 728 Humboldt Street.
I will be heading down and checking it out. I was impressed with the man when I met him last fall during the City of Victoria by-election.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Friday, April 29, 2011
Esquimalt Juan de Fuca Riding poll
This poll was conducted for Project Democracy, a group seeking to defeat the Conservatives. The polled 400 people in Esquimalt Juan de Fuca on April 27-28. That is a margin or error of +-4.9% 95%.
While it is not a large lead for Troy, it is large enough to be significant, the odds of the NDP winning are less than 30%
- Troy DeSouza - Conservative 40.4%
- Randall Garrison - NDP 34.6%
- Lillian Szpak - Liberal 15.4%
- Shauna Salsman - Green 9.6%
While it is not a large lead for Troy, it is large enough to be significant, the odds of the NDP winning are less than 30%
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Letter from Woodwyn Farm to Central Saanich Council
I got this via email today.
Woodwynn Taking a Stand for Human Rights - April 27, 2011
April 18, 2011
District of Central Saanich
Mayor and Council
Re: Woodwynn Farm Zoning Amendment
Mayor Jack Mar and Council Members:
Woodwynn Farm recently made an application to the District of Central Saanich for an amendment to the Land use Bylaw. The intent is to permit additional housing on the site while still maintaining the farm status that both we at Woodwynn Farm desire and the Official Community Plan mandates. Our proposal is to use approximately one percent of the land to accommodate the homeless and our Therapeutic community project, and have our participants, staff and volunteers work/learn on the farm and keep 99% of the land in farm uses permitted by the Agricultural Land Commission.
We wish at this time to draw to you, an awareness that there are widespread prejudices and fears that surround mental illness and addictions. Those suffering from physical ailments are treated with Compassion, Dignity and Respect and receive millions of $$ in treatment at their immediate disposal. While in contrast, those suffering from mental illness or addictions get a bowl of soup, a cot and a clean syringe - and many are forced into a life of crime to survive. The homeless are often warehoused in shelters and housing projects as part of a mantra of "Out of sight, out of mind". Hardworking and dedicated case workers are exhausted stretching increasingly meagre resources increasingly further.
As a culture we have not dispensed our humanity equally. Minorities, including First Nations, blacks, and gays have all in turn been marginalized and worse. And while the work is not done, as a society we have learned that we can do better for each of these groups. Our Woodwynn project challenges us to do better for our homeless citizens. This is not a temporary fix but a blueprint for real social change.
Our Mission is to assist our apprentices to lead a life of sobriety and self-reliance. The Therapeutic Community model has an over 70% success rate in achieving this goal, long-term. Part of our prescription for mental-health and addictions is to treat people with Dignity, Respect, Honesty, Compassion, and Support - Our Core Values. When people are treated with respect, they find self-respect, they respect others and find the ability to respect the land. When people are treated with compassion, they find compassion for others. When people feel the gratifications of Accomplishment, they find the Dignity of Self-Reliance.
"The ultimate goal of farming is not the growing of crops, but the cultivation and perfection of human beings"
- Masanobu Fukuoka
To live free of discrimination is a Human Right. To argue that a person cannot be housed because a project does not fit in, or is not in the best interest of current and future landowners cannot overrun that right. The BC Human Rights Code exists to foster a society without impediments to full and free participation in the economic, social, political and cultural life in BC. It prohibits discrimination against persons regarding any accommodation, service or facility customarily available to the public on the basis of physical or mental disability.
We wish to therefore inform you that:
1. We hold any individual, organization, community plans, zoning by-laws or policy that essentially excludes or defames people because of their mental health, addiction or history of homelessness, to be discriminatory and therefore completely unacceptable
2. To further demonstrate our intention to help more people, and grow more fruits and vegetables on the land, we will be increasing the number of participants in our Therapeutic Community project to '10', as soon as is practical
3. We wish to move forward with our application for rezoning
Please let us know if you require additional information.
Please do not hesitate to contact me if you have any questions.
Sincerely,
Richard Leblanc
Founder & Executive Director, Creating Homefulness Society
"Believe in people...
... until they are ready to believe in themselves"
www.woodwynnfarms.org
Submitted on behalf of the homeless we serve and their loved ones, our dedicated volunteers and staff and the Board of Directors
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Woodwynn Farms Goals:
1. House and apprentice 96 participants in the Therapeutic Community Program
2. For the first time in over 150 years, grow produce on one of Vancouver Island's largest farms, and keep the farm in the Agricultural Land Reserve.
3. Reach our goal of 2011 people, donating 99 cents a day, helping to secure the financial future of Woodwynn Farms
Please write to mayor and council and tell them why this is important to you.
Please donate, and help us make this project a reality!
"We cannot allow Politics, Bureaucracy and a few people resorting to bullying tactics, to continue to keep us from our Humanity" - RL
7789 W. Saanich Rd, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8M 2C5
O: (250) 544-1175 C: (250) 589-5805
Labels:
Livable Neighbourhoods,
Peninsula,
Redevelopment
The Future of Democratic Reform In BC - A Forum on Saturday April 30th
This is an event organized by Fair Vote Canada and I am going to try and make it, I encourage everyone to come out as well
___________________________________
VICTORIA, BC — On Saturday, April 30th, the Greater Victoria chapter of Fair Vote Canada and the University of Victoria’s history department will be hosting a panel discussion on the future of democratic reform in British Columbia. Panelists include Bob Simpson, the independent MLA for Cariboo-North; Jane Sterk, leader of the BC Green Party; and political scientist Dennis Pilon.
Christy Clark endorsed proportional representation during the 2009 election campaign, and her premiership may change the outlook for electoral reform in BC. She could find support on the other side of the aisle: the NDP platform includes a commitment to electoral reform. New Democrats Mike Farnworth, John Horgan, and Nicholas Simons endorsed proportional representation during their recent leadership bids.
There are numerous avenues for democratic renewal, which the panelists will be discussing on Saturday. Bob Simpson has been an outspoken advocate of reforming the ineffectual committee system, and Jane Sterk’s Green Party supports proportional representation. Dennis Pilon, author of The Politics of Voting, offers a realistic take on the prospects for reform. All three recognize that there are both opportunities and roadblocks to change.
This free panel discussion, which will include a question and answer session, will run from 1:30 to 3:30 on Saturday, April 30th, in room A110 of the Social Sciences and Mathematics building at UVic.
- - - - -
The SSM building is just across the ring road from the stadium parking lot. A map showing the location of the building is online at http://www.uvic.ca/buildings/cab.html You need to scroll down to find the map. The easiest way to find the room is to into the courtyard between the two parts of the building.
I hope that you will be able to make this - I expect a lively and informative discussion!
Wendy Bergerud 250-384-0666 (if no answer, try 250-886-1974)
Fair Vote Canada, Greater Victoria Chapter
___________________________________
VICTORIA, BC — On Saturday, April 30th, the Greater Victoria chapter of Fair Vote Canada and the University of Victoria’s history department will be hosting a panel discussion on the future of democratic reform in British Columbia. Panelists include Bob Simpson, the independent MLA for Cariboo-North; Jane Sterk, leader of the BC Green Party; and political scientist Dennis Pilon.
Christy Clark endorsed proportional representation during the 2009 election campaign, and her premiership may change the outlook for electoral reform in BC. She could find support on the other side of the aisle: the NDP platform includes a commitment to electoral reform. New Democrats Mike Farnworth, John Horgan, and Nicholas Simons endorsed proportional representation during their recent leadership bids.
There are numerous avenues for democratic renewal, which the panelists will be discussing on Saturday. Bob Simpson has been an outspoken advocate of reforming the ineffectual committee system, and Jane Sterk’s Green Party supports proportional representation. Dennis Pilon, author of The Politics of Voting, offers a realistic take on the prospects for reform. All three recognize that there are both opportunities and roadblocks to change.
This free panel discussion, which will include a question and answer session, will run from 1:30 to 3:30 on Saturday, April 30th, in room A110 of the Social Sciences and Mathematics building at UVic.
- - - - -
The SSM building is just across the ring road from the stadium parking lot. A map showing the location of the building is online at http://www.uvic.ca/buildings/cab.html You need to scroll down to find the map. The easiest way to find the room is to into the courtyard between the two parts of the building.
I hope that you will be able to make this - I expect a lively and informative discussion!
Wendy Bergerud 250-384-0666 (if no answer, try 250-886-1974)
Fair Vote Canada, Greater Victoria Chapter
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Poll in Saanich Gulf Islands
A poll was done by Oraclepoll for the Greens in Saanich-Gulf Islands and it has found the Elizabeth May in the lead.
The sample size was of 389 people, with 328 expressing an opinion.
Riding level polls are always 'interesting' because it is very hard to make sure you can get a representative sample. I do not get any sense that they the pollster adjusted for age, community, or other factors to reflect the riding. I wonder about this because I have never heard about this company and have no idea what their track record is in polling.
When one polls a whole province or a whole nation, the vagaries of the local situations balance themselves out. When polling at the riding level, it is really hard to get a good result because it is harder to get the accuracy needed to represent the public in the poll.
I also find it interesting the poll was done April 18th and 19th but not released till today, in fact did not hit the media till about 3pm.
This poll is the only poll they list on their website has having done. They claim they have done riding level polling before.
That said, the race is clearly closer than I thought. Specifically the NDP vote is lower than I thought it would be. The poll was taken a week ago and before there was much of any NDP surge in BC. I wonder if there is a follow through here or not?
I will be adjusting my take on the riding to giving May a chance.
- May 44.5%
- Lunn 37.8%
- Loring-Kuhunga - 9.1%
- Herrington - 8.5%
The sample size was of 389 people, with 328 expressing an opinion.
Riding level polls are always 'interesting' because it is very hard to make sure you can get a representative sample. I do not get any sense that they the pollster adjusted for age, community, or other factors to reflect the riding. I wonder about this because I have never heard about this company and have no idea what their track record is in polling.
When one polls a whole province or a whole nation, the vagaries of the local situations balance themselves out. When polling at the riding level, it is really hard to get a good result because it is harder to get the accuracy needed to represent the public in the poll.
I also find it interesting the poll was done April 18th and 19th but not released till today, in fact did not hit the media till about 3pm.
This poll is the only poll they list on their website has having done. They claim they have done riding level polling before.
That said, the race is clearly closer than I thought. Specifically the NDP vote is lower than I thought it would be. The poll was taken a week ago and before there was much of any NDP surge in BC. I wonder if there is a follow through here or not?
I will be adjusting my take on the riding to giving May a chance.
BC Transit says Light Rail should be the rapid transit
I am rather surprised that BC Transit has suggested light rail because it is very expensive for small traffic volume. Most people in this region do not live near the proposed line and most transit users are not near that line. Successful LRT lines replace bus transit that has physically reached its maximum.
I remain concerned about the idea of light rail for a number of reasons
I remain concerned about the idea of light rail for a number of reasons
- The capital costs are very high
- There is no way they could get to the $950,000,000 number without a lot more detail. It looks like the number was chosen simply to make the cost be under $1 billion.
- The passenger traffic volumes are not there for Westshore to Downtown traffic
- It has a higher operating costs unless you get larger volumes of passengers
- Where will we get the money to pay for the line to be built?
- The line will accessible to less than 20% of the region's population but 100% of the region will pay for it. In the City of Victoria there is high transit use, but these people will be expected to pay more to for transit for no improvement in service.
To give this some perspective, the cost to build this line would mean spending 3.5 times more per capita here than what was spent on the Canada line in Metro Vancouver.
If I were the provincial government and I was looking at the list of priority transit projects, I have trouble seeing how an LRT in Victoria would make that list in the next 15 years.
What I do not know:
- Will the line be grade seperated?
- Where will the line run along Portage Inlet?
- How and where do you have the terminus Downtown?
- How frequent will the service be?
- Will the time really be 45 minutes? That is how long the bus currently is scheduled to take. Is the LRT really not going to save any time?
- Where will the passenger volumes come from to reach the 50,000 daily riders needed to make an LRT viable? That is half the people using transit in the CRD each day.
Labels:
Transportation and Transit
State of the Federal Election Locally
Victoria - NDP
Denise Savoie (NDP) will be re-elected and may increase here percentage of the vote. I see Patrick Hunt(Conservative) in second with Christopher Causton (Liberal) third. I doubt the Greens will hold much of their vote.
Saanich-Gulf Islands - Conservative
Eliazbeth May(Green) needs about 45% to have a chance to win. The electoral math is still not there. The fading of the federal Liberals is good for her, but the surging NDP is not good. I fail to see how the NDP and Liberals do not take at least 30% of the vote. I can not see Gary Lunn dropping below 40%, this leaves only 30% of the vote for her, which is about the same she did in Nova Scotia las time.
Esquimalt Juan de Fuca- who knows?
I honestly do not know who will win this riding. Statistically I would say it will be Troy Desouza(Conservative) but my gut says it is going to be Randall Garrison(NDP). I would not place a bet on this race.
Denise Savoie (NDP) will be re-elected and may increase here percentage of the vote. I see Patrick Hunt(Conservative) in second with Christopher Causton (Liberal) third. I doubt the Greens will hold much of their vote.
Saanich-Gulf Islands - Conservative
Eliazbeth May(Green) needs about 45% to have a chance to win. The electoral math is still not there. The fading of the federal Liberals is good for her, but the surging NDP is not good. I fail to see how the NDP and Liberals do not take at least 30% of the vote. I can not see Gary Lunn dropping below 40%, this leaves only 30% of the vote for her, which is about the same she did in Nova Scotia las time.
Esquimalt Juan de Fuca- who knows?
I honestly do not know who will win this riding. Statistically I would say it will be Troy Desouza(Conservative) but my gut says it is going to be Randall Garrison(NDP). I would not place a bet on this race.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Court decision on the Vantreight Development
| View from the Hill Project location |
Main Points of Interest in the Judgement
- Bylaw1712 is legal
- The development is in keeping with the OCP and brings many benefits sought by the OCP
- The Regional Growth Strategy is not directly legally binding on councils.
- An OCP is a policy document and not a legal straightjacket. It is also not possible to meet all the objectives when considering individual development proposals.
- Council, as the representatives elected by the community to govern, has a right to interpret the OCP and measure how a development meets, or does not meet, different objectives of the OCP
- The court decision is a victory for local agriculture
The Residents and Ratepayers of Central Saanich Society asserted that the bylaw allowing the development was in contravention of the Official Community Plan.
Here is what is the core of the judgement - highlights are mine:
[37] I find it difficult to understand exactly what distinction there may be between a bylaw which is in “absolute and direct collision” with an Official Community Plan and one which is in the words of the Local Government Act is not “consistent with the relevant plan”. For the purposes of this application, I will consider whether or not bylaw 1712 is consistent with the Official Community Plan of the District of Central Saanich.
[38] Bylaw 1712 was passed in conjunction with a covenant concerning the Vantreight lands, and in my opinion it is appropriate when examining whether or not the bylaw was consistent with the OCP to consider the bylaw and the covenant together because the approval of the bylaw put in place the measures agreed to in the covenant.
[39] The enactment of the bylaw and its accompanying covenant clearly achieved some of the objectives of the OCP including by:
1. consolidating the land actually suited for farming and further restricting it from any development which would remove it from agricultural uses;
2. creating park land;
3. creating public trails to be paid for by the development;
4. making available 25 acres of land for a public garden on a 25-year lease;
5. requiring the developer to provide water and sewage utilities at its expense;
6. requiring the residential building to conform to Energuide standards thus contributing to protecting the environment; and
7. granting the farmland a nuisance easement over the residential lots to facilitate adjacent farming operations.
[40] None of the foregoing results can be said to be contrary to the Official Community Plan. Clearly, the nub of the objection is that 57 residential units, which all may have suites is in the petitioner’s submission too dense a development to be fairly characterized as rural. I note that there is no evidence the land to be built upon is suitable for agricultural use, nor is there any evidence it has been used as crop or pasture land.
[41] Whether the development permitted by the bylaw is inconsistent with the concept of rural as set out in the District’s Official Community Plan is a matter of interpretation. An Official Community Plan is not drafted in the terms of a statute but rather, in terms of objectives and policies, which are necessarily much less specific than statutory terms. It is obviously not possible to promote each of the many objectives of the Official Community Plan equally in a single instance, therefore decisions applying that plan must involve the exercise of judgement in balancing various objectives in each case.
[42] The Court in considering a bylaw passed by a municipal council is not dealing with an adjudicative decision by an administrative tribunal, but a decision by elected council members, who have concluded in the exercise of their judgement, how best to accommodate the various policies and objectives they must serve. This does not empower council to misinterpret the Official Community Plan but it does suggest that the court ought not to interfere with any reasonable interpretation consistent with the OCP.
[43] The District of Central Saanich’s OCP was given third reading by Council October 20, 2008 and finally passed and adopted November 3, 2008. The 2008 Official Community Plan included the R-5 zoning which permitted a single family residence density of one house per .2 hectares in a rural area. Inferentially, the Council adopting the OCP accepted that the meaning of rural at the time of adopting the plan could include such a density. On December 13, 2010, after having considered the issue of whether the proposed residential development would fit in with the Plan’s rural designations, and having obtained covenants which clearly advance a number of the objectives of the OCP, Council passed bylaw 1712. This bylaw permitted more density than R-5 and was passed as R-5 Amended, but it limited the density to significantly less than permitted in the urban zones. In my opinion, having considered the plan itself, the staff recommendations and the benefits conferred by the covenant taken with the bylaw, Council was acting reasonably in passing bylaw 1712. I am not persuaded that bylaw 1712 is inconsistent with the Official Community Plan adopted by the District of Central Saanich and I dismiss the petition to quash the bylaw.The judge clearly found that the development is in keeping with the OCP but more importantly that the OCP is a policy of council. As a policy, though one with a legal framework to give it weight, Council has a right to make decisions based on their interpretation of the plan. It is also clear that a council can not ignore an OCP. Interestingly, he found that the CRD Regional Growth Strategy does not bind any council.
To make it entirely clear - Bylaw 1712 is legal and arguments saying it was not legal lost in the courts.
He also recognizes that the OCP is a long document and that it is not possible to meet all the objectives of the OCP in each single instance. Clearly the whole process between the Council and Ian Vantreight was a negotiation of benefits for both parties that meet the objectives of the OCP. The consolidation and covenant against subdivision of the agricultural land is the single biggest action taken to protect the rural nature of Central Saanich and protect farming in this region in decades. This one action goes a very long way to meeting core objectives of the OCP.
I am glad to see that the judgement came out quickly and was entirely common sense. I found the opposition to the Hill project irrational and the lawsuit little more another than a nuisance lawsuit designed to make the Vantreights and Central Saanich look bad.
From the start the whole objection has felt like an irrational anger against farming by suburbanites that moved into farm country. Beyond the dislike of active agriculture, to me it felt like the opposition was politically motivated for ideological reasons. The opposition seemed have a strong streak of people opposed to the idea of profit and people that are perceived to be on the right politically.
I am sure this will be a major election issue in the fall in Central Saanich. I expect the council race to be mean and nasty against the council members that supported local agriculture.
| Vantreight Irrigation Pond |
Labels:
Peninsula,
Redevelopment,
The Big Picture
Monday, April 18, 2011
The Westhills development in Langford
Slowly but surely the Westhills development is going in. Here are a couple of pics from the other day.
Labels:
Redevelopment,
Westshore
Friday, April 15, 2011
Interesting Email from Gabe of the Gorge Tillicum Urban Farmers
This came over my email today from Gabe with the Gorge Tillicum Urban Farmers. I like the idea and should do something more along these lines myself. Growing my own food and giving some of it away is just good for everyone.
Hello everyone,
Spurred on by, amongst other things, Margot and Rainey’s success with Haultain Commons (see the video at at bottom of the page) – and Rhona McAdam’s thoughts about planting strawberries in front of her house for people to pick while waiting for a bus – I’ve been thinking lately about growing food for people other than ourselves.
In a nutshell, this email is an invitation to all of us to consider growing some / a bit more food this season (and in the future) for use by others in the wider community.
Here are a few ways I’ve thought of that we might do this (and, if you have other ideas, please share them with the rest of us):
- Grow to Give: Donate some food from our back (front, side) yards to an organization such as Saanich Neighbourhood Place, Victoria Native Friendship Centre, or The Mustard Seed food bank
- Plant a Row - Grow a Row: Work with the Greater Victoria Compost Education Centre as part of their Grow A Row program (http://www.compost.bc.ca/newsandevents/PARAR%20Website%20Blurb%20and%20FAQs%20Revised%202010.pdf).
- CUSP – Community Use Street-side Production: Grow some food along the curb, or on the boulevard, in front of our homes, with an invitation to passersby to help themselves to ripe produce. This is, incidentally, another way to promote discussion about local food and food security with people passing by our homes.
- Participate in the LifeCycles Fruit Tree Project
- Work with Victoria Transition Food Group on their Capital Nut Project
To be clear, what I’m suggesting above is not (at this point, anyway) an organized GTUF activity – it’s just a seed that’s being planted. That being said, if you want to talk with me about sharing the bounty, I’d be happy to do so by email (belle.leon1@gmail.com) or by phone at 250-382-1328).
- We might also decide to emulate the Haultain Commons model and grow food for public consumption in collaboration with our close neighbours.
May this be a good season for growing and sharing, Gabe
Labels:
Livable Neighbourhoods
Thursday, April 14, 2011
McTavish Road Interchange
So the new interchange is open though not completely done. I headed out there to look at it yesterday and it was a bit of an adventure.
We have not had many roundabouts in BC for a very long time. I knew they were to part of the design for the interchange, I just had no idea what it would like to drive through them. It is a bit more confusing than I expected.
I have years of experience in freeway related roundabouts in the UK. I should know what I am doing, but it has been some years now since I lived in London. I needed some time to orient myself.
In looking at the roundabouts, I am concerned that they could very quickly become clogged and that people will not know how to deal with multiple lanes in a roundabout. The diameter of the roundabouts feels too small from my view.
We shall see how it plays out over time and how much people like or hate the new form. If it works here, I would like to see the province retrofit the Helmcken interchange, I think there is enough space on both sides to build the roundabouts and the scale of the traffic is right for a roundabout.
We have not had many roundabouts in BC for a very long time. I knew they were to part of the design for the interchange, I just had no idea what it would like to drive through them. It is a bit more confusing than I expected.
I have years of experience in freeway related roundabouts in the UK. I should know what I am doing, but it has been some years now since I lived in London. I needed some time to orient myself.
In looking at the roundabouts, I am concerned that they could very quickly become clogged and that people will not know how to deal with multiple lanes in a roundabout. The diameter of the roundabouts feels too small from my view.
We shall see how it plays out over time and how much people like or hate the new form. If it works here, I would like to see the province retrofit the Helmcken interchange, I think there is enough space on both sides to build the roundabouts and the scale of the traffic is right for a roundabout.
Labels:
Transportation and Transit
Friday, April 08, 2011
City of Victoria Draft Official Community Plan
The City has released the draft of the Official Community Plan, a copy of which you can find on the City website. There will be a chance to offer input on the OCP till June 10th.
You can offer input on the plan online and you attend one of the information sessions on the OCP
Dates of OCP Open Houses
I am tempted to host a meeting of interested people and look in detail at the OCP, if I do, I will let everyone know.
I will be looking through the OCP over the weekend see what I come away with, but at first glance I am not really impressed. I see some focus on very specific details that really do not need any mention but at the same time there is no detail on how many of the broad statements could be achieved.
As an example of detail needed, the OCP suggests we will need to house another 20,000 people in the City of Victoria over the next 30 years but at the same time the limits of existing zoning has more or less been reached in this city, there is not that much space for a lot more housing within existing zoning we have. The OCP talks about 10,000 more people in the urban core and 10,000 in the rest of the City.
I will go into detail on the whole OCP on Monday.
You can offer input on the plan online and you attend one of the information sessions on the OCP
Dates of OCP Open Houses
- April 28th 5 pm to 8 pm 800 Yates Street - the new Atrium building
- May 7th 10 am to 2 pm Vic West Community Centre
- May 14th 10 am to 2 pm Fairfield Community Centre
- May 26th - youth oriented event location and time tba
- May 31st 6pm to 9 pm Oaklands Community Centre
I am tempted to host a meeting of interested people and look in detail at the OCP, if I do, I will let everyone know.
I will be looking through the OCP over the weekend see what I come away with, but at first glance I am not really impressed. I see some focus on very specific details that really do not need any mention but at the same time there is no detail on how many of the broad statements could be achieved.
As an example of detail needed, the OCP suggests we will need to house another 20,000 people in the City of Victoria over the next 30 years but at the same time the limits of existing zoning has more or less been reached in this city, there is not that much space for a lot more housing within existing zoning we have. The OCP talks about 10,000 more people in the urban core and 10,000 in the rest of the City.
I will go into detail on the whole OCP on Monday.
Thursday, April 07, 2011
Looking at Esquimalt Juan de Fuca
In the 2008 election the Esquimalt Juan de Fuca riding was one of the closest in the country with Keith Martin winning over Troy DeSousa by only 67 votes out of 58,631 cast in the election.
The riding has been around since 1988 when it was won by Dave Barrett of the NDP. Dave Barrett is the only candidate to ever get a majority of the vote in any of the seven elections held in the riding.
The next six elections were all won by Keith Martin, in 1993 and 1997 a Reform, 2000 as Canadian Alliance and in the last three elections as a Liberal. In 1993 he won over Dave Barrett with only 35.3% of the vote. Dave Barrett managed 27.2% and the Liberal 21.5%. The rise in the Liberal vote in 1993 was more than the margin Martin defeated Barrett by.
In 1997 Keith Martin increased his margin taking him to 43.4% of the vote, this mainly happened through the PC vote being squeezed. The Liberals and NDP swapped positions but maintained a combined 49% of the total vote. Martin benefited from there being a strong New Democrat and Liberal running.
In 2000 as a Canadian Alliance candidate Keith Martin managed to peak at 49.7% of the vote. The Liberal slipped a bit but the NDP dropped to their lowest number ever with 13.4% of the vote. Keith Martin had arrived as the iconoclastic politician he has become known as.
It is in the 2004 election that we have Keith Martin running as a Liberal after leaving the newly formed Conservative party. His vote also dropped dramatically by making the move to the Liberals. He finished less than five percentage points ahead of Randall Garrison of the NDP. The Conservative was not that far behind even though John Koury's campaign was very personal against his old boss Martin because Martin betrayed him and crossed the floor without letting him know anything was coming.
2006 was Garrison versus Martin again with the addition of Troy DeSousa for the Conservatives. Martin dropped and Garrison and De Sousa rose but not enough to make Randall Garrison in the MP.
2008 Martin and DeSousa were back by Garrison was not. The NDP vote dropped a lot, I suspect many of NDP supporters voted for Martin out of fear Troy DeSousa would win, it worked and Keith Martin just barely manage to win.
So that is the history of the riding, what does this mean for 2011?
First off, Lillian Szpak of the Liberals has no hope of any success. The 2004, 06, 08 elections were votes for Keith Martin and not the Liberals. I suspect she will manage around 25% of the vote.
Randall Garrison is back for the NDP and I would doubt that he is going to get less than he did in 2006. I put him on about 34-35%.
Troy DeSousa is back for the Conservatives and I do not see his vote dropping, I also see him at 35-36%.
My current estimate is that the race is a very close between Troy DeSousa and Randall Garrison. The question will become which party can pull in more Liberal votes, the NDP or the Conservatives. Both parties have a ceiling to their vote of about 50% each. Both campaigns have to target the Liberal voters and push them to vote strategically.
The riding has been around since 1988 when it was won by Dave Barrett of the NDP. Dave Barrett is the only candidate to ever get a majority of the vote in any of the seven elections held in the riding.
The next six elections were all won by Keith Martin, in 1993 and 1997 a Reform, 2000 as Canadian Alliance and in the last three elections as a Liberal. In 1993 he won over Dave Barrett with only 35.3% of the vote. Dave Barrett managed 27.2% and the Liberal 21.5%. The rise in the Liberal vote in 1993 was more than the margin Martin defeated Barrett by.
In 1997 Keith Martin increased his margin taking him to 43.4% of the vote, this mainly happened through the PC vote being squeezed. The Liberals and NDP swapped positions but maintained a combined 49% of the total vote. Martin benefited from there being a strong New Democrat and Liberal running.
In 2000 as a Canadian Alliance candidate Keith Martin managed to peak at 49.7% of the vote. The Liberal slipped a bit but the NDP dropped to their lowest number ever with 13.4% of the vote. Keith Martin had arrived as the iconoclastic politician he has become known as.
It is in the 2004 election that we have Keith Martin running as a Liberal after leaving the newly formed Conservative party. His vote also dropped dramatically by making the move to the Liberals. He finished less than five percentage points ahead of Randall Garrison of the NDP. The Conservative was not that far behind even though John Koury's campaign was very personal against his old boss Martin because Martin betrayed him and crossed the floor without letting him know anything was coming.
2006 was Garrison versus Martin again with the addition of Troy DeSousa for the Conservatives. Martin dropped and Garrison and De Sousa rose but not enough to make Randall Garrison in the MP.
2008 Martin and DeSousa were back by Garrison was not. The NDP vote dropped a lot, I suspect many of NDP supporters voted for Martin out of fear Troy DeSousa would win, it worked and Keith Martin just barely manage to win.
So that is the history of the riding, what does this mean for 2011?
First off, Lillian Szpak of the Liberals has no hope of any success. The 2004, 06, 08 elections were votes for Keith Martin and not the Liberals. I suspect she will manage around 25% of the vote.
Randall Garrison is back for the NDP and I would doubt that he is going to get less than he did in 2006. I put him on about 34-35%.
Troy DeSousa is back for the Conservatives and I do not see his vote dropping, I also see him at 35-36%.
My current estimate is that the race is a very close between Troy DeSousa and Randall Garrison. The question will become which party can pull in more Liberal votes, the NDP or the Conservatives. Both parties have a ceiling to their vote of about 50% each. Both campaigns have to target the Liberal voters and push them to vote strategically.
Wednesday, April 06, 2011
The Amalgamation Project
After several months of having a group of 40 or so, with another 80-100 supporters, attend at least one of the series of meetings to figure out how to start the debate and dialog about amalgamation in this region we are now ready to publicly move forward. Last night we had the first meeting of the steering committee of The Amalgamation Project.
Our goal is at first to begin the discussion about amalgamation, but our eventual goal is to have local governments seek the support of the public to investigate amalgamating in some form. We would be happy to see amalgamation a question on the ballot this fall in all the municipalities to find out if people are generally in favour or opposed. We are also realistic and do not expect the councils to offer this as a vote in November.
We will be holding a public forum on Thursday May 26th. We do not have the location yet, but hopefully will have that in place shortly. We have a list of 6-10 possible locations we think would work. At this forum we will have six to eight speakers talk for five to ten minutes about some aspect of governance and our region. I will be talking about planning and zoning problems that arise from having 13 municipal governments. We will then have an hour for people to raise issues, ask questions and general debate issues that relate to us having all these local governments.
Our goal is going to be having regular public forums on all manner of issues that relate to amalgamation.
We are looking at having a website up which will collate information about governance in this region. It will also eventually have a forum for people to debate.
We have decided on a $10 lifetime membership fee for anyone wishing to become a member. If you want to join, you can mail a cheque or cash to:
The Amalgamation Project
3103 Harriet Road
Victoria BC
V9A 1T7
We will have other ways for you to join as well in the near future.
On April 19th we will be holding a meeting of people interested in working on the amalgamation issue. We will be creating special interest groups for topics such as Policing, Transportation, Planning and more.
More details on all this as they are organized.
For more information please feel free to contact:
Bernard von Schulmann - Steering Committee communications - 250-744-0866
Rod Phillips - Steering Committee chair - 250-880-0071
Our goal is at first to begin the discussion about amalgamation, but our eventual goal is to have local governments seek the support of the public to investigate amalgamating in some form. We would be happy to see amalgamation a question on the ballot this fall in all the municipalities to find out if people are generally in favour or opposed. We are also realistic and do not expect the councils to offer this as a vote in November.
We will be holding a public forum on Thursday May 26th. We do not have the location yet, but hopefully will have that in place shortly. We have a list of 6-10 possible locations we think would work. At this forum we will have six to eight speakers talk for five to ten minutes about some aspect of governance and our region. I will be talking about planning and zoning problems that arise from having 13 municipal governments. We will then have an hour for people to raise issues, ask questions and general debate issues that relate to us having all these local governments.
Our goal is going to be having regular public forums on all manner of issues that relate to amalgamation.
We are looking at having a website up which will collate information about governance in this region. It will also eventually have a forum for people to debate.
We have decided on a $10 lifetime membership fee for anyone wishing to become a member. If you want to join, you can mail a cheque or cash to:
The Amalgamation Project
3103 Harriet Road
Victoria BC
V9A 1T7
We will have other ways for you to join as well in the near future.
On April 19th we will be holding a meeting of people interested in working on the amalgamation issue. We will be creating special interest groups for topics such as Policing, Transportation, Planning and more.
More details on all this as they are organized.
For more information please feel free to contact:
Bernard von Schulmann - Steering Committee communications - 250-744-0866
Rod Phillips - Steering Committee chair - 250-880-0071
Friday, April 01, 2011
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| The sign is screwed into the fence, otherwise it would not last more than a couple of hours in this neighbourhood |
Meanwhile, this morning I became the first person in my neighbourhood to have a sign on their property. I am really do like Patrick Hunt.
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