Tuesday, April 26, 2011

State of the Federal Election Locally

Victoria - NDP 
Denise Savoie (NDP) will be re-elected and may increase here percentage of the vote.  I see Patrick Hunt(Conservative) in second with Christopher Causton (Liberal) third.  I doubt the Greens will hold much of their vote.

Saanich-Gulf Islands - Conservative
Eliazbeth May(Green) needs about 45% to have a chance to win.   The electoral math is still not there.  The fading of the federal Liberals is good for her, but the surging NDP is not good.   I fail to see how the NDP and Liberals do not take at least 30% of the vote.  I can not see Gary Lunn dropping below 40%, this leaves only 30% of the vote for her, which is about the same she did in Nova Scotia las time.

Esquimalt Juan de Fuca- who knows?
I honestly do not know who will win this riding.   Statistically I would say it will be Troy Desouza(Conservative) but my gut says it is going to be Randall Garrison(NDP).    I would not place a bet on this race.
Post a Comment