There are five regional districts that would need to contribute and their populations in 2011:
- Capital Regional District - 359,991
- Regional District of Nanaimo - 146,574
- Cowichan Valley Regional District - 80,332
- Comox Valley Regional District - 63,538
- Alberni Clayoquot Regional District - 31,061
The contribution they are looking for is $0.43 per $100,000 of assessed value per year for five years. For a $600,000 house in Victoria this is $2.58 per year for a total bill of $12.90.
So far the Alberni-Clayoquot and Cowichan Valley regional districts have approved the tax, 16.3% of the population and likely representing less than 10% of the assessed value. The bulk of the contribution will come from the Capital Regional District.
The CRD has the highest assessed values and 52.8% of the population. The buy in by the CRD is crucial.
Should all five regional districts agree the ICF will then have $20,900,000 to work with which includes $500,000 from Southern Railway of Vancouver Island and debt or fundraising of $2,200,000 by the ICF. The question then is who pays if there are cost overruns?
The investment is clearly needed to ensure that the tracks can be used, but the odds of a 20-30% cost overrun is very likely given the track record of transportation infrastructure projects. Where would that $4,200,000 to $6,300,000 come from?
I am not trying to be negative about the E&N but it worries me when the planning does not seem to be fully thought out. There has to be a clear plan to raise extra money because you can almost plan on there being cost overruns. To pretend that they will not occur means someone will be asked to come up with the shortfall because a crisis point is reached. I suspect that it will be the local governments that will have to come to the rescue.
To get this phase of the rail line work completed is going to likely need all the regional districts to approve a second round of taxes twice as much per $100,000 of assessed value as is being asked for now. I am not sure from where else the money could come from unless a new government in Victoria next May grants the ICF another $7,500,000.
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Southern Railway of British Columbia gets a sweet deal - only $500,000 in capital expenditures and no payment of taxes on the land. One of the sweeteners in the BC Rail sale was that CN Rail would have to restart paying taxes to cities along the line, something that was discontinued by the Glen Clark regime.
The repeated pronouncements that aggregates be shipped by rail - those revenues won't even start to pay for the upgrades to the line or make it operational viable - could also be transported by barge, something that Catalyst has started doing to shave costs of truck transport.
The MOT reports on both passenger and freight show that the prospects are so embarassingly poor that when asked about them Graham Bruce can only say that they are missing important elements. What elements? With Greyhound cutting service, few ask if the revenues from tourist travel by bus would be missed. (Comment by Nanaimo mayor spreaks volumes). The thinking seesm to be that somehow subsidized tourist rail gives much better returns that car rental or bus service (4 daily trips up Island)that can be used by people of modest means.
The Capital Regional district would be wise to demand that commuter service between Langford and Victoria be implemented before other service if they are to spend on this bridge upgrade expenditure.
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