Ted Godwin commented on my post the other day on transit and road improvements needed in the region.
Peak Oil: It is not happening now and is not going to happen in my lifetime. The price of oil will rise and fall over the years, but the simple reality is that the current rate of consumption is not going to drain out the reserves we have globally. Because of the low oil prices a few years ago, exploration was dramatically reduced and reserves were not growing. Now with high prices there is renewed exploration and reserves are increasing.
In any case, the issue is not oil at all, it is energy. We are not facing any danger of running out of energy. As the price of oil rises, other energy sources will take the place of oil. You can only believe in peak oil as a problem if you have no understanding of economics. In the early 19th century we had 'peak wood' - the forests of the eastern US were disappearing to keep the forges of industry going and early trains rolling. The replacement fuel was coal. This in turn was replaced by oil in about 1900. Oil, which is no danger of running out, will be replaced as we develop cheaper alternative technologies.
What will not happen is that people are not going to give up their cars. There is a human love affair with being able to control your own travel. Numerous societies have measured their wealth based on how many horses or camels a man had. Others measured a man's worth by the size of his boat. These examples predate the car and show this is a fundamental human pattern. Trying to deny individual car ownership as being a core of our society is only set yourself up for disappointment.
Distribution of work and housing in the region: When I mentioned the big box stores in this context, it was not for the shoppers, but for the workers. Millstream road in Langford has become a major employment centre in the region. LRT will not work in this region for commuters because our pattern of new jobs is not to have the concentrated in one core location.
The biggest single commuter destination for transit in our region is UVic, but the pattern of where people come from to go there means that there is no clear LRT route one could construct to improve on the existing buses.
Road Works in This Region: The road works I was pointing out in that posting are not ones that would add to more suburban sprawl. For a road to to that it has to open up an area to development that was previously not available. All the roadworks I suggested, except for one, deal with existing congestion. In fact their construction would reduce the greenhouse gases we produce in this region by reducing idling.
I do admit that a interchange at the new Westshore parkway will only make that new sprawl of Westhills be more attractive, but I personally would like to be able to get out of town faster when I am going up island to camp.
3 comments:
Wow, I get a whole post in response to comments, I feel special.
I have to question one assertion however: On what do you base the claim that UVic is the, "biggest single commuter destination for transit in our region"? Are there really more people traveling to and from UVic than to and from the downtown core on any given weekday?
As someone who works @ UVic and commutes daily by bus I can see how it might be but I just wonder if there are reliable numbers to back this up?
I can not find the reference at the moment, but UVic now has more transit commuters than downtown does. In the world of BC Transit I found a break down in one of their reports, damned if I can find it right now.
There are several factors at play here but the biggest lately are the increasing numbers of people at UVic versus low growth in jobs the core.
Concerning the comments on 'Peak Oil'
The term 'Peak oil' is rather a misnomer. Easy to recover and low sulphur oil is running out and has peaked or will peak in the next five or so years at today's consumption rates. Most of the major fields in the world are in decline except possibly in Saudi Arabia and exploration and enhanced recovery is not replacing these reserves. The Athabasca tar sands can keep us going for decades but they are very dirty and expensive operation. A very good book on energy is 'A Thousand Barrels a Second' by Peter Tertzakian and the web site http://www.energybulletin.net/ will give many facts and figures, links to various energy agencies, as well as news items. It also includes articles, links and data on climate change.
I believe towards the end of the next two decades civilization as we know it will cease to exist due to a combination of climate change effects, energy shortages, environmental degradation effecting food supplies, etc unless we find an alternative life style and invest heavily in suitable technology (and elect candidates who are willing to act on these issues.)
I can forward other references on these matters if required
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