2006 Census and the local Federal Ridings

There is a very interesting dataset on Pundits Guide which allows you to look at the 308 Canadian ridings through the lens of the data from the 2006 census.   I am going to highlight some interest factoids about the three local ridings

Victoria

• 5th lowest number of people under the age of 15 with only 10.1%
• 26th highest median age at 45.3 
• Tied for fourth smallest family size at 2.6 people
• 7th highest number of people with no religion at 40.5% (the top 27 are all in BC, we seem to be much, much less religious than the rest of the country)
• 6th highest commuters by walking of biking 29.44%
• 9th lowest number of people with unpaid hours looking after children 27.97%
• 13th highest average value of dwelling at $507,716

Saanich Gulf Islands

• 19th lowest in under 15 years olds with 12.7%
• Has the highest median age in Canada at 48.3
• tied for 7th smallest family size at 2.7 people
• 21st highest number of people with no religion at 35.2%
• 4th highest rate of working in a different municipality than where they live 60.99%
• 9th lowest number of Catholics at 14.62%
• 11th highest value of dwelling $531,843

Esquimalt Juan de Fuca

• 141st in under 15 year olds with 16.4%
• 126th oldest median age at 41.4
• Tied for 38th smallest family size 2.8 people
• 8th highest number of people with no religion at 39.2%

Lions Gate Bridge Refurbishment versus the Johnson Street Bridge Refuribishment

For the record, I do not like the look of the Johnson Street bridge, but I am not a fan of spending a lot of taxpayer money needlessly for a new bridge that is more expensive than we need.

I thought I would contrast the last major heritage bridge project in BC to the purported costs of the Johnson Street Bridge Refurbishment.

Some Facts

• Lions Gate suspension span - 850 metres
• Johnson Street bridge main span - 60 metres
• Lions Gate 70,000 cars per day
• Johnson Street 23,000 car per day
• Lions Gate project cost $86.5 million
• Johnson Street Bridge project $79 - $104 million
• Lions Gate project 16 months
• Johnson Street project 4 years
• Lions Gate no daytime closures
• Johnson Street project one year full closure of the bridge
• both projects are seismic upgrades

Some other important differences:

• The Lions Gate bridge is high above the water and required all work to be done from the bridge.   
• The Lions Gate bridge is a suspension bridge which makes replacing the old deck with a larger new deck particularly difficult.   
• The Lions Gate bridge was in bad enough condition by 1974 that vehicles over 13,600 GVW were banned from the bridge.
• The northern causeway to the Lions Gate bridge has severely deteriorated over the years and had 1000 pot holes per year, bridge maintenance was costing $3 million per year.
• The Lions Gate project also included widening the 2 km road through Stanley Park, effectively the contractor had to build a whole new 2 km roadway

With all this information, I can not for the life of me understand how the Johnson Street Bridge could cost from $79 to $104 million to refurbish.   There is nothing in what I can read about the Johnson Street Bridge that indicates it is in worse condition than the Lions Gate bridge in 1999, in fact it seems the Lions Gate bridge was in worse condition.

The scope of the two projects is the same but the scale is nowhere close to each other.   My rough estimate is that the Lions Gate bridge project was about five to ten times as large a project as the Johnson Street Bridge project.   Even the initial estimate in Delcan report of $23.6 million for refurbishment seems high when one compares the scope of this project to the Lions Gate one.

Frankly, based on reading the Delcan report I am not sure where all the money is going to be spent.   One only need to look at the LaSalle Causeway bridge in Kingston to see that what was said that needed to be done in the Delcan report, other than seismic upgrading, was done for $3.1 million.

In the MMM costs estimates for refurbishment, $5 million is set aside for painting, more than $9 million contingency and more than $9 million for engineering and project management, $7 million for inflation.   All in all, the cost estimates for refurbishment look rather padded.

I am beginning to think the refurbishment costs were fiddled with to make the capital costs of the replacement option look reasonable when it clearly is not.

Some Reading on the Lions Gate Project:

• McGraw Hill Construction
• Darryl Matson, P.Eng., Buckland & Taylor Ltd.
• Buckland & Taylor Ltd.

Gyro Park in Cadboro Bay

Saanich is considering doing some serious upgrading to Gyro park at Cadboro Bay.  

The scope of the proposed changes would seem to make the park much more than the beach and the sailboats.   There seems to be plans on introducing a natural fresh water feature.  Also there will be some sort of a community plaza/promenade.  If the plan goes ahead, the park will be much more inviting for the public to use and will also offer more space for public events.

At the moment the park is drastically underused, it consists primarily of a large field of grass.  It is vastly underused.

One thing the plan seems to remove is the Scout hall, is this really a good idea in an era when people seem to want to get kids to go outside and Scouts are one of the few groups that actually do this.

The one thing that is missing is any attempt to add more trees.   I raise this because Saanich is working on an urban forest strategy but is not considering this issue within their own parks.   The current grassy area could be made into a primarily forested area.  Having a lot of trees adds to the fun kids can have in the park especially in the winter when the beach is anything but inviting.

Saanich Urban Forest Strategy Draft

Saanich has offered up their draft on an Urban Forest Strategy.   You have until September 12th to submit your thoughts on the strategy.

What I noted is that from 1986 to 2005 Saanich had lost 583 hectares of land with more than 50% forest cover.  This was 12.6% of the forested area.   At the same time Saanich gained 112 hectares of impervious surface, a 12.3% increase in the same time.   The ratio of forested to impervious surface went from 5.07 to 3.93.   There is clearly a trend towards the loss of forested land.

My concern is that the strategy is going to focus on trees and not the forest.   This really is a case where some narrow minded tree preservation bylaws will literally miss the forest for the trees.  The strategy spends too much time in trying to come up with ways to put all the costs of trees on the backs of private land owners and not in the hands of the municipal government.

Saanich needs to move away from thinking about the individual trees that exist and look towards where major amounts of trees can be added.  

Saanich has the ability to add a lot trees along streets, there could be a goal set of adding 50 km of trees along streets each year.

Parks and schoolgrounds.  Mosf of them in Saanich have large expanses of grass and is lacking in trees.   Look at the Tillicum school ground, only one major tree on the site.   Look at Colquitz middle school and you will see the same.   Cuthbert Holmes park offers close to 12 hectares of land that need to be reforested.   there are some 25 hectares of unforested park lands in the Panama Flats area that could be reforested.   Cedar Hill golf course has about 45 hectares of land that could be much more densely forested.

There are no shortage of large properties in the public realm that could be planted with trees, but this is not the focus of the strategy.   There is enough land available that if replanted with trees could leave Saanich with a higher amount of forested land than in 1986.   But this would require the municipality and school board to take action and out a focus on planting trees.  

Frankly, all these school grounds without trees seem to me to be very boring places.  I would like to see at least half of each school property to be covered in trees.   Some apple trees would be a nice addition to the schools so that the kids have apples they could pick in the fall.

If adopted as it is written now, the urban forest strategy will have little or no impact on the lass of forested lands in Saanich.   It is a long winded document that passes the buck and makes the council look like they are doing something, but really it is a deck chair rearranging thing.

15 months now without the TC

For years I subscribed to the TC and when I lived in the interior the Vancouver Sun.   I have even had subscriptions to the Globe and Mail and the National Post from time to time.     I gave up getting the paper on a daily basis at the end of 2009 BC election.

I thought I would really miss it, but I do not.   I buy the paper from time to time but I find it uninspiring, actually, they are all uninspiring.  Not getting the paper saves me time each day.   I thought I would be out of the loop with the news, but that has not been the case.

It saddens me that I no longer get the paper, but I am not sure I will ever return to getting the daily local paper.   I get more than enough local news from the radio and online.   For world events I rely on the Economist, as I have done for some 23 years now.

My guilt is not high enough for me to get a subscription.  

Gorge Waterway is safe for swimming

After some comments the other day from people about swimming in this region I thought I would dig up the data.  It turns out VIHA tests the water and the Gorge is open for swimming.

Turns out is doing well enough to support decent aquatic life including the rare Olympia Oysters.   In fact the Gorge Waterway has no closures I can find for shellfish, crab or fish.   The Victoria harbour has a limit - from DFO:

Dioxin contamination - Victoria Harbour

Consumption of crab hepatopancreas harvested in those waters of Victoria Harbour north of a line from Macaulay Point to the navigation light at the western end of the Ogden Point breakwater to a line from Chapman Point southwesterly to the opposite shore should not exceed 135 g/week.

Fishing is something you can see a lot of off of the Craigflower bridge.

The Gorge may have been a problem in the past, but that is no longer the case.   The Victoria Harbour still has issues, but the harbour area and the Gorge Waterway are not the same place.

What the Bridge Referendum Means

The referendum on borrowing for the new Johnson Street Bridge is more than just a vote on how to finance the project, it is a proxy for a new bridge versus some form of refurbishment of the existing bridge.

Legally the City can go ahead paying for the new bridge with property tax increases if they lose the referendum, but to do so would be an arrogant action by the council.   A rejection of the borrowing is also a defacto rejection of a new bridge, to go forward with the new bridge after the vote is not respectful of the wishes of the public.   The defeat is also a public vote of non confidence in the actions of the council.

If the borrowing is defeated, the council should defer a decision on what to do with the bridge until there is a newly elected council in 2011.  If the current council members are re-elected, this does give them a mandate to forward, but if instead a new council is elected they need to be given the chance to go forward with the mandate they have.

The City of Victoria has still not understood that in 2010 there is an expectation by the public of serious consultation about major projects.  The whole way the bridge project has been handled from the start has made a lot more problems in this process than there needed to be.  Over and over again the sense I get is that the City staff have decided what needs to happen and that the public is an obstacle to overcome.

We are supposed to have a a City interested in better engagement with the public, but I have seen very little evidence of this in a meaningful way around this project or in fact around much from the City in the last several years.   I could pillory several council members as not being interested in public engagement, but I do not think that is where the problem lies.   My sense is there is a culture among the staff that is not enamored with the idea of public input.

Can the staff stomach the results of a referendum loss?  How will they advice council to move forward in the case of defeat?   If is this question that should be made clear to the public before the vote and the reasons for why as well.

Aug 12 Ipsos poll predicts huge voter turnout in November City referendum

I know I just raised this issue, but a new way to speak to it came to mind.

The August 12th poll by Ipsos predicts that 77% of the voters in the City of Victoria will cast a ballot in the November referendum on borrowing for the Johnson Street Bridge replacement project.   This astonishing result will be highest turnout for an election in Victoria in more than a generation.   Just under 50,000 people are predicted to vote in this referendum.

Based on how they state their results, this result is accurate +- 5.3% 99 times out of 100.   This means they predict that we will have at least 72% of the people vote.

Now if anyone believes this is an accurate result for how many people will vote, I will happily lay a bet with you that it is not within the 99% confidence margin.

So if we can all agree that this one result is completely and totally wrong and it is the only we can accurately make an estimate off, how can we assume all the others to which we have no baseline to measure it against is accurate?

Either you accept that all the results are correct or you have to assume all of them are wrong.   Picking and choosing is not an option that is valid.   You can do it, but then you can make anything and claim to believe it.   The survey is either scientifically correct or it is not.   I content that it is fundamentally flawed.

City of Victoria by-election and referendum

It is now just over three months before election day in November, we still do not know if it will be the 20th or the 27th.   The council by-election is very quiet and really a sideshow, it is the referendum that will be interesting.

There is still only one declared candidate, Barry Hobbis.    Rumours are out there of two or three more, but given the amount of work involved in being able to get elected, I do not see anyone that strikes me as ready to come into the race and win.

When it comes to the referendum, I am curious about how the campaign will go.

• Will council members be actively campaigning for a Yes vote?
• What will council be allowed to spend and send out to the public to try and get a Yes vote?  Are they limited by campaign spending?
• Will council threaten to raise taxes if there is a No vote?
• Will the Johnsonstreetbridge.org become a campaign team against the new bridge?
• Will there be an active Yes campaign and who will be in charge of it?  I am assuming the Chamber of Commerce will be involved, but can they mount a serious campaign?
• Will Barry Hobbis campaign against the new bridge and offer other options he will pursue once on council?

To this point the energy and effort has been 90% on the side of the people wanting to preserve the bridge.   I can see that this core group has the energy to continue the campaign, I can not say the same of anyone on the side that wants to replace the bridge.   Outside of council, there is no clear champion for the new bridge.

Council had a poll done in May and then another one in August, they have to be careful with this data.   Did either the poll state how motivated the people are to vote in the referendum?  Realistically the poll needed to have reached about 3000 to 4000 eligible voters to be able to get 350-500 respondents that are actually going to vote in the election.   The May poll reached 600 people and found that 79% of them were planning on voting in the referendum, they even had 50% saying they would definitely vote.   These numbers are utterly out of whack with reality, it is unrealistic to expect more than a 25% voter turn out for the referendum.

In the August poll they once again got very, very high results for how many people would be voting in November.   These numbers are simply and utterly out of sync with reality.  Since we know that the numbers are clearly way out of whack in the results, how does one then read any of the rest of the data?   Can one rely on the preference data?   What you have to understand is that the majority of people that answered the poll lied to the pollster about at least one question.   Did they lie for other questions?

If a large number of people who will not be voting, even though they said would, indicated they wanted a new bridge, what is the implication on the referendum?   The data from the poll is suspect at best and wildly misleading at worst.

In the poll they should have asked "did you sign the petition" and "how will you vote in the referendum?"   though this last one is really not very useful as the majority of people lied about their intention of voting in the election.  Really there should have been a question of about if they voted in 2008 or the poll should have only used the names of people that voted in 2008.

I suspect council is going to be sitting smugly and thinking that this referendum will pass because of the data they have from a very flawed poll.

Beating the heat in this city

I am constantly amazed at how quickly people in Victoria wilt in the heat, anything more than the 30C and people whine about it being hot.   It is not like it is that warm here in the Capital Regional District and where I live there have been very few days over the low 30s in the last six years - the data is at the UVic School-based Weather Network.  In fact, this last weekend were the only two days where the temperature rose about 30C in August in my neighbourhood in the last five years.

That said, what I find even more interesting is how few people avail themselves of the options for cooling off in the region.   I grew up in Tsawwassen and all summer in the sunny weather the beaches are packed with people.   Tsawwassen only has 25,000 people but this is enough to keep the four to five kilometres of beach to filled with people.   When we look over here we do not see the same crowds.  It is rare to find the 1.5 km of Islandview beach packed with people.

There are beaches along the shore of Beacon Hill park through to Clowerpoint and then again in Oak Bay.   The crowds do not seem to find them.  These beaches are close to a lot of people, but I have rarely seen much more than a scattering of people on these beaches.

Over on the Westshore there are some nice beaches, the Coburg peninsula is a wonderful almost two kilometre long beach with all that inviting water right at hand.   Witty's Lagoon has a nice sand beach as well.

What will it take to build up a beach culture in this city to rival the sort of that exists in Vancouver?  It is not just the beaches that are empty here, it is everywhere else as well.

The Gorge runs through the heart of the city and still the small cove at the Tillicum bridge rarely has more than a handful of people even in the hottest weather.  the Gorge has the advantage that the water is warm and it is such an inviting narrow channel to swim across.   The beach at the Esquimalt Gorge park is very underused.   In fact there is nothing in the Esquimalt description of the park includes any mention of the beach and decent swimming access to the Gorge.

Goldstream park has this wonderful waterfall and it is not hard to get into the water there, it is rare to have to share it with anyone.  It is one of many creeks and streams that lie to the west of the city that offer some wonderful cooling in hot weather.

We have almost no public water play areas for kids, there is one in Beacon Hill park, but that is really about it.

It is a shame that people in this area are not making use of the resources we have to keep cool.

Uptown Centre Traffic Issues

I had made a note of the problems I could see with the traffic flows at the new Uptown Centre the other day, now it seems at least one member of Saanich council has noted there is a problem.   Vic Derman has seen the same issues I saw.

• The Oak Street entrance road to the mall has little storage for cars waiting for the light, it will back up into the parkade
• The street level parking will be constantly clogged as people in Victoria try to always park on the surface
• The left turn bay from Saanich Road into the mall is much., much too small to handle the traffic wanting in.
• The access to the upper level is too close to the intersection of Blanshard and Saanich
• The underground parking is set up in such a way to almost ensure traffic problems

There are more problems and I can not see how they can be remedied.  The problems arise from core problems in the design of the traffic flow.


From the August 10 issue of the Saanich News
--------------------------------------------------------------

Traffic snarls at Uptown point to mistake made during approvement process, councillor says

Published: August 10, 2010 1:00 PM

Updated: August 10, 2010 3:48 PM

Saanich council made a big mistake last year by not requesting financial return on a parking variance at the Uptown development that could've been worth upwards of $4.5 million, councillor Vic Derman said.

The error could lead, literally, to troubles down the road.

Though the councillor has only biked, not driven, to the new shopping centre, he said he's seen traffic congesting along Saanich Road where shoppers enter the newly-opened underground parking lot. “That $4.5 million could've been used to address some of the issues that might be appearing now,” Derman said referring to the back-ups and Uptown’s need for traffic control people.

“It will evolve,” said Uptown general manager Roberta Ferguson. “Right now we ask people to be patient with us, because we’re not even finished with phase one.”

However, the traffic control people will be a regular sight at Uptown for the foreseeable future, she said. “I think eventually people will understand the site and we won’t need to have as much traffic help out there, but they’ll be there to help people get comfortable with where they need to go.”

But Derman, who in early 2009 asked that council consider financial return for parking that could help alleviate traffic, said he wants to see a longer-term transportation plan for Uptown that includes more bike racks and public transit.

“There's a whole pile of things (Uptown) can do to try to encourage alternatives where you didn't have to arrive by your car, but I'm not sure that got through to them,” Derman said. “So if we find the vast majority of people are going there in single occupancy vehicles, we could have some real issues there.”

Ferguson said Uptown will begin to roll out a transportation demand management program, that will include the promotion of public transit, bikes and car sharing, in the fall.

kslavin@saanichnews.com

City of Victoria votes to go forward with a new bridge

Just in, the council voted 8-1 to build a new bridge and not to refurbish the existing bridge.  Only Geoff Young voted against the new bridge.

What I do not know is what the information looked like that the council considered.

I think that this decision is a dangerous one for council because I am not convinced that they can pass this in the referendum in November.   I do not think there is much hope in passing the borrowing referendum this fall.  Honestly I can not see the scenariop in whihc that would happen.   If council members say "you must pass it or your taxes will rise dramatically." they will get a lot of push back.

Council should have received the message from the public in the counter petition process that they needed to move in the direction of refurbishing the existing bridge.  To ignore that input and go forward with the replacement when there has been virtually no public support for that idea is foolhardy and irresponsible.   The councilors have a fiduciary obligation to manage the finances of the City to the best of their ability.   Putting something to referendum that they can be certain will fail is not meeting their obligation.

• Will council members be actively campaigning for the borrowing?
• Who will head the Yes to borrowing side of the debate?
• What is council going to do if they get a No in November?

My prediction is that we will have general gridlock with respect to City governance will the election 2011 and at that point we will see an almost completely new council elected.

---------------------------
Update at 2 pm

Seems there was a poll that showed close to 2/3s of Victoria residents favour replacement.   Maybe they can win the referendum......

Here is their press release:

Council Proceeds to Referendum to Replace Johnson Street Bridge
Date: Thursday, August 12, 2010 For Immediate Release
VICTORIA, BC — Victoria City Council has decided to proceed to a referendum on borrowing up to $49.2 million to replace the 86-year old Johnson Street Bridge.

“I am pleased that so many people from our community took the time to provide their thoughts and opinions on this important project,” said Mayor Dean Fortin. “The community has provided us with a clear preference for replacement, and now it is my hope we can move forward towards a successful referendum for borrowing in the Fall.”

Informed by extensive public input, from more than 2,600 Victoria households, and a representative Ipsos-Reid telephone survey of residents and businesses, a clear preference for replacement was indicated. The results of the Ipsos-Reid survey indicated 64% of Victoria residents preferred replacement compared to 29% for rehabilitation. A survey of business returned a preference of over 3:1 for replacement over rehabilitation.

The total project cost for a replacement bridge is estimated at $77 million and has a federal contribution commitment for $21 million. The City has reprioritized other budgetary expenditures to take advantage of the bridge construction period, which further reduces the funds needed to borrow.

The new bridge includes on-road bicycle lanes, a multi-use path, a dedicated pedestrian walkway on the south side, improved road approaches, a connection to a future harbour pathway, widened marine channel, and improved connections to the Galloping Goose and E&N trails.

A borrowing bylaw will be given three readings at a special Council meeting tomorrow, Friday, August 13 at 2:30 p.m. Subject to approval by the Inspector of Municipalities, the borrowing bylaw will be taken to a referendum on Saturday, November 20, 2010.

Qu'appelle Park in Saanich

Looking west from Qu'Appelle Street

Looking towards the apartment building on Burnside

I thought I would post some pictures of my local park, Qu'Appelle park.   It is not nothing big, just a few lots that have a playground, a basketball court and some green space.

Names on the Cairn - Councilor George Rudd, Frank and Edie Blaus, William Beddington, Bert and Marge Bosher, Fred and Bea Cobb, Paddy and Ruth Heavener, and Ed and Edie Veach

The Bridge

Today is the last day you can send in your comments to the City in their process.  Council will make their decision on Thursday of refurbish or replace.

What I find interesting is how generally quiet the pro refurbishment forces have been in the last four to six weeks but at the same time groups in favour of replacement have been coming out of the woodwork.   We have heard from the Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce and the Greater Victoria Cycling Coalition in favour of a new bridge.

I am not surprised that the Chamber is in favour of the new bridge given that the refurbishment option will mean a full bridge closure and have some impact on retailers downtown, but given the scale of the estimated losses due to a closure, I think this is a red herring.   The estimated losses are so low in comparison to total sales that I do not think it will be noticed.   Furthermore, in the same time period several hundred more people will be living downtown from the new developments and should more than offset any losses due to the bridge closure.

I am also not surprised the Greater Victoria Cycling coalition has come out in favour of a new bridge.   I am fully aware of the problems the current bridge is for cyclists as I have ridden over it, or I should say wheeled my bike over it.   I also suspect that they are very much influenced by John Luton.   I am not convinced by their arguments for a new bridge as there is no problem re-purposing the rail span for a very decent bike access over the bridge.

Both the arguments made for a new bridge are in my opinion not serious arguments.   Good arguments would be ones that focus on costs, traffic patterns and long term impact on the city.  The costs argument is borderline, a new bridge is a marginally better deal than refurbishing, but this has to be balanced against the values the heritage bridge brings versus the new bridge.   The rebuilding of the access roads to the bridge is an important change needed.  The refurbishment option does not make changes to the roads.

Assuming the costs for the project are dealt with in a way that contains their impact, I would be inclined to support the replacement bridge for the improvements to the road approached on either side of the bridge.  I remain worried that the council has ruled out a P3 for the bridge.    I can only hope that the City tendering process is one that has fixed price contracts for the project with hard deadlines and financial penalties for missing them or going over budget.

One positive point in either option is the removal of the rail link over the water.   Removing this will finally take the focus off of the E&N as a viable option for transit and put it where it belongs, on the Douglas - Highway #1 corridor.

Just some quick thoughts on traffic

On Friday Sheila and I drove up island to camp for a night and we left town during the height of rush hour.   Leaving when we did meant we had to go out with the Colwood Crawl and I have a few observations on the traffic from town all the way out to Duncan.

First, between the Colwood and Langford exits people use whatever lane works to weave in and out of the traffic to get a couple of cars ahead.  The distance is only 3.5 kilometres and the relative time gain over that distance when you drive 110 km/h versus 90 km/h is only a savings of less than 30 seconds.   If you could drive the whole freeway section distance 20 km/h faster, you still can only save less than one minute of time.  The driving pattern is not gaining much in time but it is adding more risk.

Second, the light at Spencer Road leads to a merge right after it.   I have driven in Vancouver for years and there are locations where there are constant merges going on.   In Vancouver there is a clear understanding of the expectations of all concerned in a merge and people follow this pattern consistently.   The merge just after Spencer Road there was no sense that many people understood how to equitably merge, a number of people chose to zip far ahead and then merge in.   The best gain you can get in being rude and pushy like this is 15 cars ahead of where you would have been.   You gain at most 20 seconds on your trip doing this.    What does happen is that civility is reduced and people get angry.

Third, the traffic speed over the Malahat was markedly faster than what I have normally expected in that stretch. the moving traffic speed was over 120 km/h all the way to Duncan once we cleared Goldstream Park.   The speed is not that much of a problem, the real problem is that almost every person driving the fastest did not understand how to drive at that speed.   Some examples of what I saw was that they did not signal clear intentions when they changed lanes, they tailgated consistently, and were not staying consistently centred in their lanes.

All in all, given that we were leaving at the busiest time of the day on a Friday, the delay from the Colwood crawl is still not very much, it is not a major traffic problem.   Certainly it does not compare to the delays one sees at many of the locations in Metro Vancouver like the Lions Gate Bridge, the Deas Island Tunnel, or the Oak Street Bridge.   There is a reason why Vancouver has a 24/7 traffic radio station, the first one anywhere.  

Given the relative problems with traffic, our worst traffic problems do not compare to the top ten in Metro Vancouver.  We should not expect dramatic government support for transit and road improvements in this region until a lot more is dealt with in the Lower Mainland.

House prices in Victoria

The latest Victoria Real Estate Board stats are out on house sales in the Greater Victoria area and it looks bad for the sellers in this market.

July saw 527 total sales, this is the worst July since the 1990s, it is dramatically down from the 800 to 900 sales that we have seen.   We have seen a decline each month since the peak of the market this year in March and this is not the normal pattern.   Normally the peak of the market is June - July in terms of sales.

The number of units on the market is at 4500, this is a basically a year supply for the market.  The number of units coming onto the market has remained consistent over the last six years, the change is the number of sales each month.   The current supply is comparable to what we saw in the summer of 2008 when the market went cold.   The difference between 2008 and 2010 is that the market is colder now than in 2008.  May, June and July 2010 have all been worse than the comparable months in 2008.

The average house price of $615,000 is down and closing in on a low for the last year.   It also means that there has been little or no increase in the value of houses since the 2007 market peak.   What the stats are also showing is that the gap between the average price and the median price is still close to 10% and indicates that what sales are happening are at the top end of the market.

When one looks at specific neighbourhoods, there are some up that are up and others that are down.   Saanich west and Langford have seen dramatic falls in the last six months in prices as examples.

Condos are at a $325,000 average which means effectively no price increase since November 2006, close to four years of no capital gains.  135 condo sales is wildly low for July.  This is what we should be seeing in the late fall, not at the peak of the market.

So what is going to happen in the next few months?   I see the prices coming down a lot over the next six months, I see the average house price dropping to about $550,000 by the end of November of this year.   After that I see the house prices remaining stable or dropping slightly for the next several years.

The factors for a soft market:

• 40 year mortgages are no longer available and rules for getting a mortgage has become harder
• Prices elsewhere in Canada are falling, or have fallen, faster than here.   People can not more here and there is a financial incentive to sell here and move to a cheaper community.
• The market is too expensive for a 30 year old professional couple to be able to buy a starter home.
• The median age of Victoria is rising and these people want to sell their houses for their retirement.   

There are at least some developers seeing there is a market niche for starter homes, Kettle Creek Station in Langford is one such development.  The houses are very basic and available for $370,000 to $415,000, with sizes of 900 to 1650 sq feet in size.

We have several periods of where prices were stable in Victoria, I am convinced we are in that sort of a period again and should not expect to see house prices rise close to the rate of inflation till after 2016 to 2018.  At that point we may see increases, we may also see enough of a demographic change vis a vis population growth that demand many not increase.

That Bridge, Once More

Old pic I found online

The City has extended their deadline for comments about the bridge to August 10th.   I would submit something except for I am really neutral on the options offered and only really care about the final price of the bridge.  

My overarching concern is how will the City get cost certainty for the project and what will the City do to ensure there is no extra burden to the public.

My other major concern is that this is a very big capital project for the City and there is offer of any real financial support from the other local governments in the region.   Admittedly places like Saanich are cheap and can not even be bothered to build sidewalks to make the city more walkable.   If they are not even willing to do the basics in their own neighbourhoods, then why would anyone expect them to take responsibility for anything on the regional level.

Maybe the City of Victoria could use the bridge as a tool to push amalgamation?   The bridge is of huge benefit to Esquimalt and quite crucial to View Royal.   Maybe the quid pro quo is that the bridge gets overhauled or newly built if those two municipalities join Victoria?  Victoria needs to make it clear that the City can live without the bridge if it has to, take a hardline position and see who blinks.

The City has done a good job by taking the rail off of the table and seeing if anyone will come forward.  So far no one has to clearly the Westshore municipalities do not support the E&N rail line as a commuter line.

It bothers me that this bridge is going to delay the redevelopment of Crystal Pool.   I also expect the City to use this expense as a reason to continue reneging on providing a replacement park for the Ellice Street Park.   It has been several years since they said they would replace it.    They also promised a Maddock to Cecelia Ravine park to connect the area in the last OCP.   I can hear the refrain coming "We are broke and therefore we can not buy the parkland"

The bottomline for me to vote in favour of borrowing money:

• Cost certainty with a hard limit on the project
• A commitment of at least 15% of the cost to come from Esquimalt and a further 15% from the rest of the region.

If these two things are not achieved, then I have no reason to vote for the bridge.  Certainly the bridge offers me nothing.   I am willing to pay for something that does not benefit me if the people that benefit pay as well and are actually on the hook for any cost overruns or problems.

If the bridge is not replaced we would manage to live without it being there.   Traffic patterns would change, but there would be no major long term problems.   Yes, traffic would suck in some areas, but it would still not be as bad as many locations in Metro Vancouver.  Not building the bridge may hard some retail business, but it will leave me better off.   Building the bridge is a transfer of money from me to retail businesses and commuters.

Central Saanich Council Approves Bylaw for Vantreight Hill Project

At the council meeting last night the Central Saanich council passed the bylaw that was needed to move the Vantrieght Hill Project forward.    This is very good news for protecting farming and farmland in this region and it places housing where it belongs - on a rocky outcropping with very low environmental values.

There is a a threat of some sort of legal action against the bylaw because opponents argue the project goes against the Central Saanich OCP.    This action will only cost Central Saanich needless money for lawyers against a frivolous lawsuit.   I hope the judge has good sense to award full costs to Central Saanich when the case is dismissed.

So why is it not in contravention of the OCP?

First, it is by definition a rural zoning and therefore in keeping with the OCP.    The density of the housing is not dissimilar to what has bee allowed elsewhere in Central Saanich in rural areas and in a number of cases on agricultural land.

Second, the OCP calls for the protection of farms and farmland.   Severing the 32 acres of the hill from the agricultural land in the same lot is good because unfarmable land connected to ALR lands causes financial problems for farms.  

The bylaw also makes the existing farm more financially viable and thereby fulfills the OCP vision of protecting the rural and farming history of the municipality.

Finally, the consolidation of the ALR lots into two of the largest lots in Central Saanich and attaching a no subdivision covenant to this will do more protect farming in this region than any other action taken by any government or group in more than a generation.    If Central Saanich had 'bought' this consolidation and covenant, they would be looking at a bill in the excess of $10,000,000.   This act alone is the single action that most expresses the OCP than anything that has happened to date.

I know some of you are wondering if the loss in value of the land is not counter intuitive if the Vantreights needed to develop the land to protect the financial security of the farm.   Losing land value certainly will restrict how much money the family can borrow in the future, but the big issue at the moment is enough cash to pay off debt the farm is carrying.  The Hill project brings in the cash to dramatically reduce their debt.

The consolidation may be a large loss in land wealth by the family, but it will also keep the value of the land lower in the future and will make it easier for the farm to pass to the next generation when the time comes.

I assume that the first act in any legal action will be to seek an injunction.   Even if the opponents had a case, since nothing physical is happening, there is no case for an injunction to be granted.   Since it is clear that the bylaw does not contravene the letter or spirit of the OCP, there is no case to be made.   As of this time no one has come forward with any counter argument to the points I have made as to why this project is within the OCP.