I have known Patrick for some years on and off, never close enough to call him friend, but someone that is an acquittance. My experience of him has always been positive. I have waffling and I should not have been because one of his most important issues is the same as mine and we are close agreement.
The single biggest reason I will be voting for him is that there is no one else running for MP in this region that has been as a strong a supporter of electoral reform as Patrick has been. He was there in 2005 and 2009 to support the campaign for a Yes vote here in BC for electoral reform. The only other candidate that I know of that was active in supporting electoral reform out of the 13 people I know of that are running for MP in the three ridings is Gary Lunn.
Patrick is truly a reformer in the completely and total sense of the word. He wants to reform our democracy and he is passionate about it. He is also by nature a populist and considers the people more important than the political party. He had experience as an MLA in Nova Scotia so he knows the party discipline issue.
Electing him would mean one more voice in Ottawa pushing for a better democracy, none of the other candidates running in Victoria has a strong a track record as he does in pushing for this.
I would vote for Patrick no matter what party he was part of.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
April 14 - The Natural City - A Visionary Call to Action
This is an event hosted by Saanich South MLA Lana Popham. I am more and more impressed with her desire to spark debate and to host chances for the public to hear new ideas. She is one of the best MLAs I have seen.
My plan is to go to this event, though I am not 100% I can make it.
I am interested in the ideas Vic Derman has about how to make the city more livable, I am just not sure about his ability to govern well and if he is able to step out of his ideological frame of reference.
Will he be talking about the municipality of Saanich or will he be talking about our city that we all live in? I am concerned about his allegiance to the concept of Saanich as it currently exists.
I also worry about the name "Natural City" - for us to have a fully functioning city we need to have things that most people do not think of. We need decent roads to move goods and we need industrial land, in the case of Saanich, they need to find hundreds of acres of new industrial land now.
The lack of industrial land means we have fewer blue collar jobs in this region and this means we have more inequality than we should in this region.
I will try to go and I will see what comes of it all.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Can Elizabeth May win in Saanich Gulf Islands?
I believe it was a huge error of Elizabeth May to choose Saanich Gulf Islands as the riding to run in as the numbers are not there for her to win it.
In her two previous runs for office as Green Party leader she has not managed to get past 1/3 of the vote. In the November 27th 2006 London North Central by-election she achieved 25.84% of the vote. In the 2008 election she ran in Central Nova and managed 32.24%, she benefited from the lack of a Liberal candidate in Central Nova.
In Saanich Gulf Islands she is running against Gary Lunn, a five time winner in the riding. He has ranged from 34.57% to 43.43% of the cote in the riding. He has achieved 43% of the vote three times out of the five elections. It is not realistic to think his vote will drop below 38% and the safe bet is to look at him getting 43% of the vote.
In the last election the Liberals did everything they could to try and win the riding with Briony Penn. They managed to get the NDP candidate to resign, though his name was still on the ballot. The pressured the Greens not to run. With all this the Liberals could not get to 40% of the vote.
So what is the theoretical amount of votes Elizabeth May could get? Let us assume that the NDP and Liberals finish as they have with their lowest percentage when running an active candidate - that is 18% for the Liberals in 1988 and 8% for the NDP in 2000. This means 26% of the vote is not available to Elizabeth May.
This leaves 74% of the vote for Gary Lunn and Elizabeth May. At 43% of the vote for Gary Lunn, Elizabeth May is at 31%. For Elizabeth May to win, she needs to 37.5% of the vote, meaning Gary Lunn has to fall to 36.5% of the vote. I am not all convinced that Gary Lunn will lose that much of his vote in this election. It also means Elizabeth May, a parachute candidate, has to better than she has ever done before and this time she has a Liberal candidate as well that feels like she is within range of winning.
Realistically the Liberals will do better than 18% and the NDP better than 8%. If takes only a small increase on either parties part to make it mathematically impossible for Elizabeth May to win.
The NDP and the Liberals are going to everything can to make sure Elizabeth May does not win, it is not in their interest to have her win a seat. I expect Renee Hetherington of the Liberals to spend the maximum in the campaign.
I expect Gary Lunn to win by more than 10 percentage points and for Elizabeth May and the Liberals to finish roughly even.
In her two previous runs for office as Green Party leader she has not managed to get past 1/3 of the vote. In the November 27th 2006 London North Central by-election she achieved 25.84% of the vote. In the 2008 election she ran in Central Nova and managed 32.24%, she benefited from the lack of a Liberal candidate in Central Nova.
In Saanich Gulf Islands she is running against Gary Lunn, a five time winner in the riding. He has ranged from 34.57% to 43.43% of the cote in the riding. He has achieved 43% of the vote three times out of the five elections. It is not realistic to think his vote will drop below 38% and the safe bet is to look at him getting 43% of the vote.
In the last election the Liberals did everything they could to try and win the riding with Briony Penn. They managed to get the NDP candidate to resign, though his name was still on the ballot. The pressured the Greens not to run. With all this the Liberals could not get to 40% of the vote.
So what is the theoretical amount of votes Elizabeth May could get? Let us assume that the NDP and Liberals finish as they have with their lowest percentage when running an active candidate - that is 18% for the Liberals in 1988 and 8% for the NDP in 2000. This means 26% of the vote is not available to Elizabeth May.
This leaves 74% of the vote for Gary Lunn and Elizabeth May. At 43% of the vote for Gary Lunn, Elizabeth May is at 31%. For Elizabeth May to win, she needs to 37.5% of the vote, meaning Gary Lunn has to fall to 36.5% of the vote. I am not all convinced that Gary Lunn will lose that much of his vote in this election. It also means Elizabeth May, a parachute candidate, has to better than she has ever done before and this time she has a Liberal candidate as well that feels like she is within range of winning.
Realistically the Liberals will do better than 18% and the NDP better than 8%. If takes only a small increase on either parties part to make it mathematically impossible for Elizabeth May to win.
The NDP and the Liberals are going to everything can to make sure Elizabeth May does not win, it is not in their interest to have her win a seat. I expect Renee Hetherington of the Liberals to spend the maximum in the campaign.
I expect Gary Lunn to win by more than 10 percentage points and for Elizabeth May and the Liberals to finish roughly even.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Saanich moving forward on Urban Chickens
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| This run would be too large for Saanich in Option 4 |
Living in the City of Victoria and having a local by-law that makes keeping chickens easy to do, I have been watching the process in Saanich. There is a report out now.
Up until now, you needed to have more than 1/4 acre of land to be allowed to keep chickens. There are four options under consideration by the council. The first is no change, and that seems to be off of the table. The second is to only reduce the property size and make no other changes - the current set backs required are large enough to make keeping chickens not possible on smaller lots. Option three is like option two only with smaller set backs. Option 4 is the one with the most detail.
Option four has a lot more details and is the one I assume Saanich will pass. Option four would seem to make keeping chickens for meat not an option as there is no slaughtering allowed onsite, I am not sure why not - actually they specifically ban meat birds in this option. The maximum footprint of the run would be 99 square feet, which means the one I have would be too big. Also, it would be allowed to be more than 2 metres tall, I think mine may be higher than that. There is also a restriction from the run being in the front yard, I do not know why this restriction. Mine is within five feet of a sidewalk. |
| Ben in May 2008 with a chicken |
There is also a requirement to register your flock.
Option four adds too many rules for no good purpose. Regulations only make sense if they are trying achieve some benefit, the ones put forward in option four has many that offer no obvious benefit.
It is great that Saanich is relaxing the rules, by why not just adopt the bylaw Victoria uses? I am unaware of any problems from the Victoria bylaw, so why not just copy their bylaw?
I have been keeping chickens for three years now and they have been easy to deal with. They cause less 'waste' problems than our dog does. I get fresh eggs and decent manure for my garden. It has also been a way to keep more food scraps out of the compost or garbage.
It is also a lesson for my kids about what it takes to get food and the difference between an egg we produce and one we buy in the store. People are too disconnected with where their food comes from. In my generation many people had parents that grown up on the farm so we had parents that were not so far from how food comes about. My children are one step further. Alienation from your food is ultimately bad for you on so many levels.
At the peak of production I was getting three dozen eggs a week. This year I think it will be more like a dozen to 18 eggs a week. It costs me about $15 a month to keep the birds so at six dozen in a month, it will cost me $2.50 a dozen for jumbo size eggs that are so fresh you easily whip the whites by hand.
If you want to see the chickens, just walk along the sidewalk on Harriett at Maddock, just stick your head over the fence. I am happy to give you a guided tour
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Victoria Downtown Public Market Society
There is a movement to bring a public market to some location in downtown Victoria. I would love to see some form of market like Granville Island or Pike Place here in Victoria, though I am not 100% certain it financially feasible. I am also not keen on a place that would primarily be a tourist destination.
There was study done a while back that stated that it was not a feasible option to have a permanent market, but in reading that study I was not impressed with how they came up with their conclusions. Where I see the problem is with supply.
For a permanent public market to operate five days a week for the full year requires a lot hours to be open and a lot of goods to be sold to cover the costs. I can see some businesses that could work well within the public market setting: a bakery, a butcher, fish monger, cheese monger and a coffee shop. What I have trouble seeing is the sale of fresh produce. The scope and scale of what needs to be sold is beyond almost anyone within 100 miles of the city other than the Vantreights and Michells.
For a market stall to work, you would need to sell at least $500 of produce per day every day. At the level it is not likely to be sustainable because there is not enough of a margin to make it work. Realistically you need to move something like $1000 per day. When I ran a market stall at the Whistler Farmer's Market I needed to gross more than $500 to make anything on the day and I needed to be closer to $1000 to make a decent amount of money.
Having sold at a major farmer's market and visited the big ones in Vancouver, I look at the 'star' markets in this region and see the gap between what is on offer and what needs to be offer to make them truly viable farmer's markets.
Moss Street Market - even with the very high prices for the produce, the volumes people are selling is very low and I can not make the math work in my head for how they would make money.
Sidney Market - I have run a stall there for a friend a few times and I am amazed at the size of the crowd. I am also amazed that very few people shop for food there. There are only a small number of stalls that sell produce and they do seem busy. I was at a stall selling a very good tomato sauce and it did not move at the scale it should for a crowd of the size that is there.
If I were looking to create the market, I would get a number of local bakeries, high end food stores, fish mongers and butchers to commit to taking a space. I would want to see these stable businesses in place and then figure out how to get the produce people in. The problem with any permanent market space is that it will be hard to scale up and down based on the seasons.
I hope the public market comes, but I am not expecting it anytime soon.
There was study done a while back that stated that it was not a feasible option to have a permanent market, but in reading that study I was not impressed with how they came up with their conclusions. Where I see the problem is with supply.
For a permanent public market to operate five days a week for the full year requires a lot hours to be open and a lot of goods to be sold to cover the costs. I can see some businesses that could work well within the public market setting: a bakery, a butcher, fish monger, cheese monger and a coffee shop. What I have trouble seeing is the sale of fresh produce. The scope and scale of what needs to be sold is beyond almost anyone within 100 miles of the city other than the Vantreights and Michells.
For a market stall to work, you would need to sell at least $500 of produce per day every day. At the level it is not likely to be sustainable because there is not enough of a margin to make it work. Realistically you need to move something like $1000 per day. When I ran a market stall at the Whistler Farmer's Market I needed to gross more than $500 to make anything on the day and I needed to be closer to $1000 to make a decent amount of money.
Having sold at a major farmer's market and visited the big ones in Vancouver, I look at the 'star' markets in this region and see the gap between what is on offer and what needs to be offer to make them truly viable farmer's markets.
Moss Street Market - even with the very high prices for the produce, the volumes people are selling is very low and I can not make the math work in my head for how they would make money.
Sidney Market - I have run a stall there for a friend a few times and I am amazed at the size of the crowd. I am also amazed that very few people shop for food there. There are only a small number of stalls that sell produce and they do seem busy. I was at a stall selling a very good tomato sauce and it did not move at the scale it should for a crowd of the size that is there.
If I were looking to create the market, I would get a number of local bakeries, high end food stores, fish mongers and butchers to commit to taking a space. I would want to see these stable businesses in place and then figure out how to get the produce people in. The problem with any permanent market space is that it will be hard to scale up and down based on the seasons.
I hope the public market comes, but I am not expecting it anytime soon.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Saanich rejected the request to remove the land from the ALR
The 4 acre lot on Mount Douglas X Road was refused the council blessing to remove it from the ALR. I can understand politically the reasoning for doing this, but as a property it is not a viable piece of land for agriculture. It is interesting that Saanich said no to this removal while Central Saanich a few years ago removed a very good 10 acre piece of land from the ALR.
As it stands, the property will be the home to a large house in an estate setting. This is the only future for the lot.
I do not think the proposed development was at all out of keeping with the neighbourhood but there did nto seem to be many benefits being offered to the municipality or neighbourhood.
A 16 house development should take the property from a value of $1 to $1.5 million to close to $5 million before a house is built. The cost of site development would not be a huge amount. If one assumes that the houses are built at a cost of $350,000 each and then sold for $800,000 each, the net profit of this development is something in the order of $6.5 million.
Saanich could have realistically requested that the developer improve regional agriculture by paying for several agricultural land titles to be consolidated. The developer would approach a farmer and pay the loss the farmer would have in the whole value of the property when titles are consolidated. The developer would then pay for a covenant on the property to ensure it can never be subdivided.
The single most important thing that can be done in this region for agriculture is to consolidate titles. We have way too many small lots in the ALR. There should be a regional goal of eventually having no lots in the CRD within the ALR of less than 20 acres and the majority larger than 80 acres.
What would help with this is if there was a change provincially that made it clear that at least 70% of any lot in the ALR was either in cultivation or open for cultivation.
One final note on the ALR in Saanich, there is a large piece of ALR in southern Saanich that is being used for a non appropriate which was banned 20 years ago. Saanich has a golf course on ALR land at Cedar Hill. Saanich should develop a plan for removing the golf course from that land and returning the land to agricultural use. Saanich is not a business out to make money, it is a local government that is supposed to be setting the standard for looking after lands properly within land use designations.
Saanich has had 20 years to pull the golf course out of the ALR but has chosen not to do so. Time to fix the inappropriate use.
As it stands, the property will be the home to a large house in an estate setting. This is the only future for the lot.
I do not think the proposed development was at all out of keeping with the neighbourhood but there did nto seem to be many benefits being offered to the municipality or neighbourhood.
A 16 house development should take the property from a value of $1 to $1.5 million to close to $5 million before a house is built. The cost of site development would not be a huge amount. If one assumes that the houses are built at a cost of $350,000 each and then sold for $800,000 each, the net profit of this development is something in the order of $6.5 million.
Saanich could have realistically requested that the developer improve regional agriculture by paying for several agricultural land titles to be consolidated. The developer would approach a farmer and pay the loss the farmer would have in the whole value of the property when titles are consolidated. The developer would then pay for a covenant on the property to ensure it can never be subdivided.
The single most important thing that can be done in this region for agriculture is to consolidate titles. We have way too many small lots in the ALR. There should be a regional goal of eventually having no lots in the CRD within the ALR of less than 20 acres and the majority larger than 80 acres.
What would help with this is if there was a change provincially that made it clear that at least 70% of any lot in the ALR was either in cultivation or open for cultivation.
One final note on the ALR in Saanich, there is a large piece of ALR in southern Saanich that is being used for a non appropriate which was banned 20 years ago. Saanich has a golf course on ALR land at Cedar Hill. Saanich should develop a plan for removing the golf course from that land and returning the land to agricultural use. Saanich is not a business out to make money, it is a local government that is supposed to be setting the standard for looking after lands properly within land use designations.
Saanich has had 20 years to pull the golf course out of the ALR but has chosen not to do so. Time to fix the inappropriate use.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Mike Farnworth Meet at Greet on Wednesday 5 pm to 7 pm
Local MLA Rob Flemming is hosting a meet and greet for Mike Farnworth on Wednesday from 5 pm to 7 pm Smith's Pub at 777 Courtney Street.
I am going to try and go down and check it out. I would take Ben so that he could meet another leadership candidate, but he is not old enough to go into a pub.
Ben has been talking with a friend of his about how they should vote in the leadership race, they are both 13 and members of the NDP.
I am going to try and go down and check it out. I would take Ben so that he could meet another leadership candidate, but he is not old enough to go into a pub.
Ben has been talking with a friend of his about how they should vote in the leadership race, they are both 13 and members of the NDP.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Application in Saanich to remove a 4 acre lot from the ALR
Tonight Saanich council will decide if it is should support the removal of 4 acres of land from the agricultural land reserve at 1516 Mt Douglas X Road.
View Larger Map
What I find interesting is that there has been almost no issue with this from any of the people that have been opposing development of the rock on the Vantreight property. I can find no mention of this proposal at the Dogwood Initiative's campaign "Vancouver Island is not for sale". It highlights to me the fact that the Dogwood Initiative campaign against the Vantreight Hill Project was a personal attack on the family and nothing to do with any ecological values or agricultural values.
The report to council by staff says that removing this land from the ALR is in keeping with the OCP. The argrologist's comments on the proposed removal of the land says the property is not of high quality soils and it is isolated from other agricultural lands.
Does removing this land from the ALR make sense? I would say yes as it is in a bad location for a farm, it is too small a property to be viable as a farm, and it does not have high quality soils. To me this is a non-issue, though it is more of an issue than many places where people are currently fighting against changes.
How will council vote on this? Good question. If they vote Yes, in November this could be used as a major way to attack the council members during the re-election. The sound bite is "Councilor X voted to remove farm land from the ALR and build houses on it".
If there are people concerned about this land being removed from the ALR, the council could ask the developer to pay for the costs to sonsolidate two agricultural lots elsewhere in Saanich and then have them pay for a covenant to not allow subdivision of that land. The biggest problem in this region with agricultural land is that much too much of it is in small lots. If the local councils and the CRD are serious about keeping agricultural land, they would be paying existing farmers to consolidate properties. We need to have a plan in place to have the average size of ALR properties to double in area as quickly as possible and eventually get to 100 acres as the average size or ALR properties.
View Larger Map
What I find interesting is that there has been almost no issue with this from any of the people that have been opposing development of the rock on the Vantreight property. I can find no mention of this proposal at the Dogwood Initiative's campaign "Vancouver Island is not for sale". It highlights to me the fact that the Dogwood Initiative campaign against the Vantreight Hill Project was a personal attack on the family and nothing to do with any ecological values or agricultural values.
The report to council by staff says that removing this land from the ALR is in keeping with the OCP. The argrologist's comments on the proposed removal of the land says the property is not of high quality soils and it is isolated from other agricultural lands.
Does removing this land from the ALR make sense? I would say yes as it is in a bad location for a farm, it is too small a property to be viable as a farm, and it does not have high quality soils. To me this is a non-issue, though it is more of an issue than many places where people are currently fighting against changes.
How will council vote on this? Good question. If they vote Yes, in November this could be used as a major way to attack the council members during the re-election. The sound bite is "Councilor X voted to remove farm land from the ALR and build houses on it".
If there are people concerned about this land being removed from the ALR, the council could ask the developer to pay for the costs to sonsolidate two agricultural lots elsewhere in Saanich and then have them pay for a covenant to not allow subdivision of that land. The biggest problem in this region with agricultural land is that much too much of it is in small lots. If the local councils and the CRD are serious about keeping agricultural land, they would be paying existing farmers to consolidate properties. We need to have a plan in place to have the average size of ALR properties to double in area as quickly as possible and eventually get to 100 acres as the average size or ALR properties.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Bear Mountain, some pictures from today
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| "Downtown" Bear Mountain |
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| Finlayson Reach Condos |
This region has a shortage of housing and each unit built anywhere frees up more space. Bear Mountain may be top end, but each local buyer frees up a house elsewhere in a neighbourhood like Gordon Head. A house in Gordon Head is then bought by someone from my neighbourhood and then a house here is available for the first time buyers.
There is still almost no retail up at Bear Mountain. You have a long drive for a litre of milk and some bread. There are some restaurants and as we discovered at Cullinaire the other day, the Copper Rock Grill seems to be very good.
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| Kuma Sushi |
Is there enough business at Bear Mountain to keep the hotels functioning? It is a long way to go from the core of the city that I would think only golfers would be drawn here, but I could be wrongThe location also makes sense because it is an area of very low impact on the environment. It is on rock, it is not situated in a crucial part of a watershed, it has density, and the whole property is to the east of Hwy #1 and therefore has very limited wilderness values for wildlife or functioning ecosystems. There are few places that make better sense than where Bear Mountain is located.
I could only see on crane in evidence, so work seems to have slowed down a lot. Lower down I could see some new developments on the lower slopes and then off of Millstream road.
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| Cavalcade Terrace behind Costco |
There is this bland acceptableness about these sort of developments. Ultimately it feels like the sort of suburban landscape that sucks out all the individuality and soul from the people. I know this sounds harsh, but I grew up in the 'burbs of Vancouver (Tsawwassen to exact) and that is what it felt like to me. But ultimately I have always been an iconoclast and just do not fit the societal expected norm. This always drove my former mother-in-law nuts.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Are these balconies?
Notice the small wedge like things in front of some of the windows, I think these are the smallest balconies I have ever seen. This is the Mosaic building as seen from Meares Street. You can not make it out in this picture, but on the fourth floor near Fort there is a sliding glass door open onto one of these "balconies"
Wednesday, March 09, 2011
An Idea for CRD Governance
Who about changing the voting on the CRD to one that is directly connected to population?
Currently there are 21 members on the CRD board for a population of 366,000. That is an average of one representative per 17,429 people. Here is how it currently works out as the number of residents per vote at the CRD:
The Highlands get ten times the voice of Victoria, 11 times the voice of Saanich and 13 times the voice of Langford. This is clearly and completely unfair. As someone from Victoria, it is wrong that someone I could not vote for at any level gives people from Highland more of a voice at the CRD.
The vote of each member of the CRD should count for as much as the number of residents they represent. It would be more than easy enough to work out and it would bring a fairer process to the CRD board. I doubt anyone would go for this.
If we were to add 8 more to the board, one for Langford, four for Saanich and three for Victoria, we would be closer to equitable representation. All three of them would be close to the average population per representative. This would be 29 member board and most importantly Victoria and Saanich would have a majority on the board.
Ideally Highlands and Metchosin should only be allowed one representative between the two of them. They are choosing to have a small population and therefore should happily accept less representation on the CRD.
I personally think we should be looking at giving the best representation to the municipalities such as Saanich and Victoria, give bonuses when populations break 20,000, 50,000 and 100,000 respectively. The CRD should be used as a level of government to encourage amalgamation and not be a level of government that allows for small municipalities an easier time to exist.
Currently there are 21 members on the CRD board for a population of 366,000. That is an average of one representative per 17,429 people. Here is how it currently works out as the number of residents per vote at the CRD:
- Langford 26,671
- Saanich 22,263
- Victoria 20664
- Oak Bay 18,459
- Esquimalt 17,474
- Central Saanich 16,530
- Colwood 15,973
- Sidney 11,892
- North Saanich 11,341
- Sooke 10,593
- Saltspring 10,207
- View Royal 9.393
- Southern Gulf Islands 5451
- Metchosin 5015
- Juan de Fuca 4894 (9700 if reserves are included)
- Highlands 2044
The Highlands get ten times the voice of Victoria, 11 times the voice of Saanich and 13 times the voice of Langford. This is clearly and completely unfair. As someone from Victoria, it is wrong that someone I could not vote for at any level gives people from Highland more of a voice at the CRD.
The vote of each member of the CRD should count for as much as the number of residents they represent. It would be more than easy enough to work out and it would bring a fairer process to the CRD board. I doubt anyone would go for this.
If we were to add 8 more to the board, one for Langford, four for Saanich and three for Victoria, we would be closer to equitable representation. All three of them would be close to the average population per representative. This would be 29 member board and most importantly Victoria and Saanich would have a majority on the board.
Ideally Highlands and Metchosin should only be allowed one representative between the two of them. They are choosing to have a small population and therefore should happily accept less representation on the CRD.
I personally think we should be looking at giving the best representation to the municipalities such as Saanich and Victoria, give bonuses when populations break 20,000, 50,000 and 100,000 respectively. The CRD should be used as a level of government to encourage amalgamation and not be a level of government that allows for small municipalities an easier time to exist.
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
BC Transit changes
The fares are going up, for cities under 500,000 in Canada we will have the dubious distinction of having the highest fares.
There will be $28 more paid by each house in the region - how that plays out for the non-single family homes I do not know.
Finally, there will be 7000 fewer service hours. This will be accomplished through withdrawing the service on the #22 bus route from downtown to Hillside mall. This means neither Fernwood or Haultain will any have any bus service on them.
The reason the Transit Commission felt they could this service is that because of the new #10 there is no longer any need for this part of the #22 route.
I am trying to find the reference, but I believe that Haultain was the location of one of the first bus routes in Victoria.
There will be $28 more paid by each house in the region - how that plays out for the non-single family homes I do not know.
Finally, there will be 7000 fewer service hours. This will be accomplished through withdrawing the service on the #22 bus route from downtown to Hillside mall. This means neither Fernwood or Haultain will any have any bus service on them.
The reason the Transit Commission felt they could this service is that because of the new #10 there is no longer any need for this part of the #22 route.
I am trying to find the reference, but I believe that Haultain was the location of one of the first bus routes in Victoria.
Monday, March 07, 2011
Victoria Flower Count
It is still cheesy and a questionable count at the best of times, but you can enter your flowers online now at their website.I went outside and counted, I have 45 crocus and 2 daffodils I am a few days away from the ornamental plum flowering.
Running for Council
The November elections for councils in this region is just over nine months away. If you have any interest in getting elected to a council you need to get serious now with your planning. Here are some suggestions to help potential candidates:
If you are running in Saanich or Victoria here are some things to keep in mind:
If you are running in Oak Bay, Colwood, Esquimalt or Sidney
If you are running in North Saanich, Central Saanich or Langford
If you are running in Metchosin or Highlands
If you are running in Sooke
If you are running in View Royal
If you are running for the School Boards
If you are running in Saanich or Victoria here are some things to keep in mind:
- Beating the incumbents is very, very hard to do. The incumbents will not formally say if they are running or not till well into the fall. Best to assume they are all running and you have a huge hill to climb. You need to make the decision to be in the race before July 1st to have any realistic hope.
- You need to get your name out there in the public realm now, people need to know who you are long before election day. How can you do this? Call into CFAX, there are a lot of issues out there that they cover everyday. Write letters to the editor for the TC, Victoria or Saanich News, and Monday Magazine. Do not forget monthly magazines like Douglas and Focus. Offer an op-ed piece to the TC - 700 words on an issue that matters in this region. Take part in online groups like Vibrant Victoria. If people do not know your name by labour day, you really have no chance to get elected.
- You need to start finding your team. You need to be comfortable going to your friends and family and telling them point blank you will need their help and you will need a lot of help from them. You need someone to fundraise for you, you need someone to manage your campaign, you need someone to find volunteers.
- You need to raise money, a lot more than you think. You really need to have someone that can find money for you, that can organize fundraising events. If you honestly want a chance to get elected to Victoria or Saanich councils you need the money to have ads on CFAX and other radio stations. You need to be able to have at least 1000 signs. You need 50,000 or so decent brochures. You realistically need a minimum of $15,000 in the bank before labour day. You should not be surprised if you need to spend $30,000. You need to be running campaign fundraisers all summer, no holiday time for you this year.
- You need to have your campaign manager in place before July 1st and they have to available 24/7 from then till election day. You will not win if you do not have a campaign manager.
- You have to be able to fill the streets and airwaves with your name the day your nomination is submitted. 1000 signs out there and ads on the radio stations.
- You will not have enough volunteers to run a voter ID campaign unless you create a slate and share resources.
If you are running in Oak Bay, Colwood, Esquimalt or Sidney
- You have few easy ways to access the people in your community other than one on one. All three are small enough that a decent voter ID and election day campaign is what can help you win.
- Getting your name out at local meetings and in the local Black News Group paper is important.
- You do have to have your team and your system in place before labour day.
- You will need a couple of thousand dollars to have signs and brochures.
- You need to be able to contact about 300 to 400 voters per day for the month before the election and know if they are voting for you or not.
- You need a lot of people on election day to be able to ensure your supporters voted. You should have 20 or more people on election day.
If you are running in North Saanich, Central Saanich or Langford
- These municipalities all currently see very strong divides in the community. Either you are on one side or the other if you want to get elected. Even then, if you are on the wrong side you will lose no matter what you do.
- Honestly, the only tactic that will work in these three to counter the incumbents is to create a formal slate and run a strong group for all the positions and mayor.
If you are running in Metchosin or Highlands
- You should know your chances on your own, and there is little I can tell you that will help you. These two municipalities are unique and it is all about knowing your neighbours.
- Sooke is far enough away from the core of the region that it has a different political nature. It is much more like a local election in a small stand alone town. The thing that matters in this sort of election is personally meeting as many people as possible. You need to hang out at the coffee shops and bars to meet the public.
- I have run twice for council in this sort of town and I know exactly what my weakness was, I was simply too new to town and not enough people knew me personally. I came fifth the second time, there are four council positions in Lillooet. I outspent my competition, I did better than three of the incumbents, but I could not do as well as several long time locals that were running for the first time. One of them was my neighbour I talked into running.
If you are running in View Royal
- The election in View Royal have not been heavily contested in the past. It is also a very, very hard municipality to campaign in because there is no real core and no place the people gather. You also have no local media to work with. That said, View Royal has had elections that were acclamations in the past.
- View Royal turn out was very low last time around, barely more people voted in View Royal than in Highlands even though it has four times as many people. View Royal has a turn out more like Saanich than like Sooke or Sidney. This means a lot more people you talk to will not be voting.
- You need to go door to door and you will need signs, some big ones (8'x4') for the top ten corners is crucial
If you are running for the School Boards
- All I can ask is why? They have few real powers, they are really only a rubber stamp for the district superintendent, and they have become a platform for people to fight with the province.
Friday, March 04, 2011
City of Victoria Budget
I am not going to focus on the whole budget, I am only going to look at a few numbers, I thought I would start with property taxes.
There is a need by the City of Victoria, based on their current proposed budget, for some large property tax increases in each of the next five years. The increases are from 3.94% to 4.70% in the various years, the total increase in five years is more than 25%. This is a dramatic and large rise in property taxes collected for the City of Victoria. In the same period we are likely to see a 12% to 18% increase in inflation. We are looking at a financial plan that is calling for the City to collect a large portion of residential and business incomes. This pattern is not sustainable and should be closely questioned by council.
It is not fair to blame Victoria for this sort of a trend, Saanich is looking at a a larger increase of 5.1% this coming year. Burnaby is looking at a 4.79$ increase in property taxes. It is a concern to me that local governments in general are increasing their spending faster than the rate of inflation on a consistent basis. Is there anyone thinking about a long term plan to reduce the overall burden of municipal taxation?
One of the major reasons the City of Victoria has a rising budget is because the money going into capital fund is increasing dramatically. In 2011 the transfer to the capital fund is proposed to be $9.9 million, in 2015 this is slated to be $16.6 million. Though I have to say I do not have enough informtion to explain why on one page, the expenditures by object, 2011 transfer to the capital fund is listed as $15.7 million, two pages later are the numbers above that I was quoting.
There is a large increase in spending on transportation and streets by the city over the next years. What I do not know is if this increase reflects the Johnson Street Bridge and how the borrowed money is accounted for in the capital fund.
There is a need by the City of Victoria, based on their current proposed budget, for some large property tax increases in each of the next five years. The increases are from 3.94% to 4.70% in the various years, the total increase in five years is more than 25%. This is a dramatic and large rise in property taxes collected for the City of Victoria. In the same period we are likely to see a 12% to 18% increase in inflation. We are looking at a financial plan that is calling for the City to collect a large portion of residential and business incomes. This pattern is not sustainable and should be closely questioned by council.
It is not fair to blame Victoria for this sort of a trend, Saanich is looking at a a larger increase of 5.1% this coming year. Burnaby is looking at a 4.79$ increase in property taxes. It is a concern to me that local governments in general are increasing their spending faster than the rate of inflation on a consistent basis. Is there anyone thinking about a long term plan to reduce the overall burden of municipal taxation?
One of the major reasons the City of Victoria has a rising budget is because the money going into capital fund is increasing dramatically. In 2011 the transfer to the capital fund is proposed to be $9.9 million, in 2015 this is slated to be $16.6 million. Though I have to say I do not have enough informtion to explain why on one page, the expenditures by object, 2011 transfer to the capital fund is listed as $15.7 million, two pages later are the numbers above that I was quoting.
There is a large increase in spending on transportation and streets by the city over the next years. What I do not know is if this increase reflects the Johnson Street Bridge and how the borrowed money is accounted for in the capital fund.
Wednesday, March 02, 2011
14th Annual Victoria French Fest
La Societe francophone de Victoria is hosting the 14th French Fest (14e Festival de la francophonie) March 10th to 13th.
I am a fan of community festivals and I like some of the events they will be having, I am concerned that this is primarily happening because of significant government funding. The Festival has sponsorship from the BC government, the BC Arts Council, The City of Victoria, two different parts of Radio Canada and the federal government. The society itself has sponsorship from the BC government, Heritage Canada, the Quebec government (seriously?). It is also supported by Reso-Sante BC, a group working to ensure we have health services in French in BC, they seem to be 100% funded by Health Canada. They are also supported by SDE CB, a French economic development corporation for BC.
We only have so much government money available to do what is needed in our society and it worries me when one group collects what would seem be to disproportionate amount of funding. I have for a long time be concerned about non-profits that receive the vast majority of funding of their funding from the government. It is a bad model and not sustainable over the long term. It also ultimately harms the functioning of the non-profit as it becomes more and more run because of the funding sources than for any other reason.
I do not know if the Victoria francophone society gets the majority of their funding from government, but on the surface it looks like that. I would like to see the society wean itself from government funding and develop a long term sustainable model to continue operating.
I am a fan of community festivals and I like some of the events they will be having, I am concerned that this is primarily happening because of significant government funding. The Festival has sponsorship from the BC government, the BC Arts Council, The City of Victoria, two different parts of Radio Canada and the federal government. The society itself has sponsorship from the BC government, Heritage Canada, the Quebec government (seriously?). It is also supported by Reso-Sante BC, a group working to ensure we have health services in French in BC, they seem to be 100% funded by Health Canada. They are also supported by SDE CB, a French economic development corporation for BC.
We only have so much government money available to do what is needed in our society and it worries me when one group collects what would seem be to disproportionate amount of funding. I have for a long time be concerned about non-profits that receive the vast majority of funding of their funding from the government. It is a bad model and not sustainable over the long term. It also ultimately harms the functioning of the non-profit as it becomes more and more run because of the funding sources than for any other reason.
I do not know if the Victoria francophone society gets the majority of their funding from government, but on the surface it looks like that. I would like to see the society wean itself from government funding and develop a long term sustainable model to continue operating.
Latest MLS stats for Victoria
The Victoria Real Estate Board has posted the stats for February. Here are my thoughts on the data.
Inventory is rising, it is ahead of the curve for 2010. This February almost equaled the record for inventory set in February 2009. Though the new MLS listings in February were not dramatically high.
The average price for condos has been flat, expect for the dip in 2008/09, for close to 4 years now. Adjusted for inflation, the value of condos has been flat for something more like five years.
Single family homes have been bumping between and average of $575,000 and $625,000 since May of 2009. Taking out the dip in late 2008 and early 2009, the average has been in this range since the fall of 2007.
Sales in February were at the second lowest level in last 11 Februaries. The sales were about 20% below a median February. February 2009 was down about 35% from the median. In the last eight months we have seen 3427 sales, about 63% of the same eight months a year ago. There is a long term weak sales market, not has bad as it was in 2008 to 2009, but certainly not a strong one.
The large inventory together with flat prices does not say to me that this is good market to be selling your house in.
Inventory is rising, it is ahead of the curve for 2010. This February almost equaled the record for inventory set in February 2009. Though the new MLS listings in February were not dramatically high.
The average price for condos has been flat, expect for the dip in 2008/09, for close to 4 years now. Adjusted for inflation, the value of condos has been flat for something more like five years.
Single family homes have been bumping between and average of $575,000 and $625,000 since May of 2009. Taking out the dip in late 2008 and early 2009, the average has been in this range since the fall of 2007.
Sales in February were at the second lowest level in last 11 Februaries. The sales were about 20% below a median February. February 2009 was down about 35% from the median. In the last eight months we have seen 3427 sales, about 63% of the same eight months a year ago. There is a long term weak sales market, not has bad as it was in 2008 to 2009, but certainly not a strong one.
The large inventory together with flat prices does not say to me that this is good market to be selling your house in.
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