I am amazed at how much the Times Colonist - Cleve Dheensaw specifically - has been hyping the Salmon Kings. Yes, it is a professional hockey team, but it is not very high caliber hockey.
The ECHL is home to guys that are still trying to live out their dream of making it in hockey for a living or guys that can not manage to do anything else with their lives. There is nothing wrong with either one, but it is hardly the makings of something worth that much hype. I have trouble with the league name, officially it is the ECHL, but this comes from the East Coast Hockey League - time to have a name that makes some rational sense. The league also needs to become more stable, at the end of each season 10% to 20% of the teams fold or move. There is hardly any players that remain with any team for more a season - anyone good enough goes to Europe or the AHL. I would love to see the AHL here.
One first and biggest complaint about the Salmon Kings is how expensive the games are. At $21 a seat for adults, taking my family out to a game will run us about $150 or more when everything is said and done. Across town I can see the Grizzlies for about $100 all in. The Salmon Kings are more expensive than the Vancouver Giants, I know I which I would choose each time. In the WHL I can watch the future stars of the NHL.
I suspect part of the problem with the pricing comes from the fact that the arena was not built large enough for this city. We have 320 000 people in the region and do not have a single venue that can seat 12 000 to 15 000 people. The marginal cost of building SOFMC larger would not have been dramatic and should have been easily recoverable through more sales of tickets to events. More seats would have meant that the Salmon Kings could have been selling $10 tickets or even $8 tickets. For the city to love the team, more people have to be able see them.
Another problem with the Salmon Kings is that there is no way to follow their games if you do not go in person. There is no radio or TV coverage. If we still had CKDA, they would make a good radio venue for the team, but we do not and CFAX already has the Canucks. Maybe Shaw could be convinced to cover the games when they are here in town, or maybe a feed for bars. The UVic Vikes provide live webcasting. But without the chance to follow them like that, I can not get excited about minor minor leaguers no one has ever heard of.
What I find most bizzare is that there is huge focus by the TC on the Salmon Kings suddenly. Where was their coverage of UVic athletes? Or the world class athletes at the Pacific Sport Institute? The Vikes have consistently been a strong team in Men's and Women's basketball for almost 30 years now. The games are inexpensive to go to but attendance is light.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
A Community Radio Station for Tillicum Burnside
I would love to get a radio station operating in this neighbourhood. The process of applying for a low power community radio station is not that difficult at all. I went though this process when I lived in Lillooet and was part of the group that started CHLS.
We managed to put CHLS on the air for little more than $1000. We had a retired broadcast engineer to donate his time to do the technical work for the application. We applied just as the rules changed and this new category was created and made the whole process very simple. I called around to numerous commercial stations and got two low power transmitters are donations. I donated the mikes, someone else the computer and we were on the air. We managed to win the 2001 NCRA Standard Radio Award for small station - the award was our major source of funding in that year. We could not afford to send anyone, so an old CFUC colleague of mine, Magnus Thyvold picked it up for us.
I have been meaning to go up to the Comox valley and meet with a small group there to tell them what it takes to start a new station, but life has been to busy and I have not gone up there. I would love to see each town and each neighbourhood to have its own station.
I think it would be interesting to develop a local station and base it out of one of the local high schools or some other community building. The Burnside Gorge Community Association has a lot of space these days, as does School District 61 in the old Mount Tolmie school.
I believe it would be of benefit to have a radio station that is focused on one area of the city. I think there could also be ones in other areas of the city. The reach of a low power station would only be a few kilometers, small enough to all several of them in the region to share one frequency.
What I need to make this work is some support from the local community. Ideally I should take this idea to the BGCA or the Tillicum Gorge Community Association.
If anyone reading this is interested in the idea, I would love to hear from you and sit down and and see what can be done.
We managed to put CHLS on the air for little more than $1000. We had a retired broadcast engineer to donate his time to do the technical work for the application. We applied just as the rules changed and this new category was created and made the whole process very simple. I called around to numerous commercial stations and got two low power transmitters are donations. I donated the mikes, someone else the computer and we were on the air. We managed to win the 2001 NCRA Standard Radio Award for small station - the award was our major source of funding in that year. We could not afford to send anyone, so an old CFUC colleague of mine, Magnus Thyvold picked it up for us.
I have been meaning to go up to the Comox valley and meet with a small group there to tell them what it takes to start a new station, but life has been to busy and I have not gone up there. I would love to see each town and each neighbourhood to have its own station.
I think it would be interesting to develop a local station and base it out of one of the local high schools or some other community building. The Burnside Gorge Community Association has a lot of space these days, as does School District 61 in the old Mount Tolmie school.
I believe it would be of benefit to have a radio station that is focused on one area of the city. I think there could also be ones in other areas of the city. The reach of a low power station would only be a few kilometers, small enough to all several of them in the region to share one frequency.
What I need to make this work is some support from the local community. Ideally I should take this idea to the BGCA or the Tillicum Gorge Community Association.
If anyone reading this is interested in the idea, I would love to hear from you and sit down and and see what can be done.
The Busway
Given all the public opposition, it will take councilors with balls to approve the new busway. The opposition is missing several big points:
Light Rail in Victoria:
The idea is financially completely and utterly unfeasible. The E and N line is in the wrong location, and will be a major traffic problem in Langford and Esquimalt. Anything going up Douglas and out to the western communities is simply not cost effective on any level. Light rail built to a rapid transit standard will cost in the range of $500 000 000 to build. Once again, my big problem is the huge ongoing operational costs.
Busway Network:
The busway is planned to expand as a network throughout the region. If you do not build the first core (and highest use) part of it, the rest of the network does not really make that much sense. The construction of the big transit interchange at Carey and Douglas will not be likely to go ahead.
Realistically what is going to happen is nothing. We are not going to get any improvement in our transit system in this region. Over the next 20 years more and more people will be living further out and we will have done nothing to make them transit users.
I am now resigned to a stalemate and long delay before we finally get a dedicated bus way type of system.
When I lived in London in the early 1990s, I was initially a regular used of the Northern Line to get to work each day. As most underground rail systems, the ride was soul destroying and disorienting. I decided one to try the bus from my neighbourhood (Chalk Farm) to work in Oxford street. What was quite amazing how well the buses moved because of the dedicated bus lanes. I could get from home to work in about the same time as the tube and I enjoyed being able to see the world go by.
Ottawa also has an amazing bus way system that works like a charm and is very cost effective. I have used and was impressed how the system combined the best of dedicated rail transit with the flexibility of buses. This was really evident in central Ottawa where the buses seamlessly integrated into the rest of the traffic without causing the huge traffic a streetcar system causes.
I still hope people will see sense, but I realistic, this is after all Victoria and this city is so fundamentally conservative when it comes to change of any sort.
Light Rail in Victoria:
The idea is financially completely and utterly unfeasible. The E and N line is in the wrong location, and will be a major traffic problem in Langford and Esquimalt. Anything going up Douglas and out to the western communities is simply not cost effective on any level. Light rail built to a rapid transit standard will cost in the range of $500 000 000 to build. Once again, my big problem is the huge ongoing operational costs.
Busway Network:
The busway is planned to expand as a network throughout the region. If you do not build the first core (and highest use) part of it, the rest of the network does not really make that much sense. The construction of the big transit interchange at Carey and Douglas will not be likely to go ahead.
Realistically what is going to happen is nothing. We are not going to get any improvement in our transit system in this region. Over the next 20 years more and more people will be living further out and we will have done nothing to make them transit users.
I am now resigned to a stalemate and long delay before we finally get a dedicated bus way type of system.
When I lived in London in the early 1990s, I was initially a regular used of the Northern Line to get to work each day. As most underground rail systems, the ride was soul destroying and disorienting. I decided one to try the bus from my neighbourhood (Chalk Farm) to work in Oxford street. What was quite amazing how well the buses moved because of the dedicated bus lanes. I could get from home to work in about the same time as the tube and I enjoyed being able to see the world go by.
Ottawa also has an amazing bus way system that works like a charm and is very cost effective. I have used and was impressed how the system combined the best of dedicated rail transit with the flexibility of buses. This was really evident in central Ottawa where the buses seamlessly integrated into the rest of the traffic without causing the huge traffic a streetcar system causes.
I still hope people will see sense, but I realistic, this is after all Victoria and this city is so fundamentally conservative when it comes to change of any sort.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
How about the E and N as a walking trail?
Given the success of the Galloping Goose, would it not make more sense to change the E and N line into a trail for bikes and walking? Certainly this would carry more commuters than the trains ever would.
This would also create great urban - suburban walking and biking trails in Duncan, Nanaimo, Parksville and Qualicum and in the Comox valley. It would also create a wonderful trail to connect the Alberni valley to the east side of the island and make hiking - biking a bigger tourism option.
Another 300+ km of trails to add to the Trans-Canada Trail. So many more connections and options for people to get active.
This would also create great urban - suburban walking and biking trails in Duncan, Nanaimo, Parksville and Qualicum and in the Comox valley. It would also create a wonderful trail to connect the Alberni valley to the east side of the island and make hiking - biking a bigger tourism option.
Another 300+ km of trails to add to the Trans-Canada Trail. So many more connections and options for people to get active.
Top Ten Reasons Not to Amalgamate
10 More local councilors means more politicians in training for provincial politics.
9 Divided we rule – no need to ever worry about coherent action happening to screw up senior levels of government
8 Local mayors are preparing for the second coming by forming a new 13 disciples group, though disagree on who will be Judas.
7 Cooperation and amalgamation is a communist plot
6 Cooperation and amalgamation is a capitalist plot
5 Since the province and the feds cut taxes we need to make up for the excess money in people’s pockets and make sure it still gets sucked into some level of government.
4 Help keep UBCM convention solvent by sending 80 more delegates than needed each and every year.
3 The municipal governments created as a make work project for lawyers with 13 sets of bylaws
2 Local mayors are concerned about other municipal governments in Canada and worried that a unified Victoria will carry too much clout and be taken seriously to the detriment of other towns getting more than their fair share.
1 Money, money, money, must be funny in a local taxpayers world.
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
Real Estate Market has Turned
While it has been coming for some time, the latest sales figures from the Victoria Real Estate Board shows all the evidence that the market has stopped. There have been signals on and off for the last year that a stall was coming, but it is here now.
The first signal that something was changing came in 2006 with large number of properties on the market - the sales were not soaking up the new ones coming on the market. One reason for this is that in 2006 a lot of people in the region cashed in on their houses and moved to something bigger and better. Problem is that each one of these people had to sell a house as well.
Historically the number of houses on the market is at its lowest in the middle of the winter. The fall of 2006 saw a large drop in properties on the market, but the number of houses on the market rebounded quickly. There was a drop again last fall, but the numbers for February show that there were almost 3400 properties on the market, not far short of the peak in 2007 of just under 3600 and close to the 2006 peak.
Sales are lagging. February 2008 had 10% less sales than February 2007 even though there were over 10% more on the market. Sales in Feb 2006 and 2005 were also higher than this last February.
Let us look now only at single family homes. 295 were sold last month, 349 in February of 2007 and 332 a year before. To put a morbid spin on this, that means less commissions for realtors.
Prices will manage to hold for some time because people are now convinced their houses are a worth a fortune and will not accept a large drop from their asking price. What will happen is that as the number of sales slows, the number of houses on the market will also drop as the speculative sellers will leave the market.
In the short term, the sudden number of houses coming onto the market in January and February will have put a downward pressure on housing prices. I can already see evidence of this. A year ago there literally was nothing on the market as a single family house for under $400 000 that was not tiny or a dump. I looked today and there are a host of houses on the market for under $400 000, though almost all of them are on major roads and not desirable from that perspective. These are the sort of houses that are the first to suffer in a downturn.
With so many houses on the market, the buyers are going to put a lot more energy into bargaining. I would expect some lowball offers to come in and to be accepted. In February, for each property sold two more came onto the market - this is a sign of a loose market. January was even worse, almost three came onto the market for each one that sold.
Supply and demand is going to take hold and is going to push house prices downwards. How far down? My estimate is that over the next 24 months the Victoria area will see a fall to about $400 000 for the average single family home, about 30%. I would not put a drop of close to 50% into the realm of the impossible.
So as someone that bought a house in 2007, where does leave me? Realistically I do not expect to see any improvement in the value of the house we bought for a decade or more.
The first signal that something was changing came in 2006 with large number of properties on the market - the sales were not soaking up the new ones coming on the market. One reason for this is that in 2006 a lot of people in the region cashed in on their houses and moved to something bigger and better. Problem is that each one of these people had to sell a house as well.
Historically the number of houses on the market is at its lowest in the middle of the winter. The fall of 2006 saw a large drop in properties on the market, but the number of houses on the market rebounded quickly. There was a drop again last fall, but the numbers for February show that there were almost 3400 properties on the market, not far short of the peak in 2007 of just under 3600 and close to the 2006 peak.
Sales are lagging. February 2008 had 10% less sales than February 2007 even though there were over 10% more on the market. Sales in Feb 2006 and 2005 were also higher than this last February.
Let us look now only at single family homes. 295 were sold last month, 349 in February of 2007 and 332 a year before. To put a morbid spin on this, that means less commissions for realtors.
Prices will manage to hold for some time because people are now convinced their houses are a worth a fortune and will not accept a large drop from their asking price. What will happen is that as the number of sales slows, the number of houses on the market will also drop as the speculative sellers will leave the market.
In the short term, the sudden number of houses coming onto the market in January and February will have put a downward pressure on housing prices. I can already see evidence of this. A year ago there literally was nothing on the market as a single family house for under $400 000 that was not tiny or a dump. I looked today and there are a host of houses on the market for under $400 000, though almost all of them are on major roads and not desirable from that perspective. These are the sort of houses that are the first to suffer in a downturn.
With so many houses on the market, the buyers are going to put a lot more energy into bargaining. I would expect some lowball offers to come in and to be accepted. In February, for each property sold two more came onto the market - this is a sign of a loose market. January was even worse, almost three came onto the market for each one that sold.
Supply and demand is going to take hold and is going to push house prices downwards. How far down? My estimate is that over the next 24 months the Victoria area will see a fall to about $400 000 for the average single family home, about 30%. I would not put a drop of close to 50% into the realm of the impossible.
So as someone that bought a house in 2007, where does leave me? Realistically I do not expect to see any improvement in the value of the house we bought for a decade or more.
Freecycle
Freecycle is a quit amazing thing. It is a Yahoo group that allows people to post messages about things they are trying to get rid of. Everything offered is for free and I have had some interesting success of late.
In the past I have given away a dog house, garden tools, National Geographics and other things. I have managed to get from people on the list chairs, a couch, several TVs, gardening things and more. It has been worth paying attention to what is on offer.
In the last few weeks I have picked up a wooden folding chair that only needs to be cleaned up, about 80 to 90 bricks I will use in the garden, and an amazing amount of Warhammer figures.
I like this non commodity process for moving usable goods around. Too often in our society we are very quick to throw out things because we no longer need it. The effort to sell it is not worth it and most of us do not want to spend time looking for a home for stuff. Freecycle is a good way to move things on to new homes.
In a similar vein, there is the free page on Used Victoria.
The internet is allowing us new avenues to keep goods from being disposed of early. I wonder how much we are saving in society by using the internet to keep goods in use longer?
On a related question, how much are we saving in our society by having direct sales via the internet? Anything that reduces the margins of retailers is a good thing for a society and selling second goods - or giving them away - on the internet hits at the retailer bottomline.
In the past I have given away a dog house, garden tools, National Geographics and other things. I have managed to get from people on the list chairs, a couch, several TVs, gardening things and more. It has been worth paying attention to what is on offer.
In the last few weeks I have picked up a wooden folding chair that only needs to be cleaned up, about 80 to 90 bricks I will use in the garden, and an amazing amount of Warhammer figures.
I like this non commodity process for moving usable goods around. Too often in our society we are very quick to throw out things because we no longer need it. The effort to sell it is not worth it and most of us do not want to spend time looking for a home for stuff. Freecycle is a good way to move things on to new homes.
In a similar vein, there is the free page on Used Victoria.
The internet is allowing us new avenues to keep goods from being disposed of early. I wonder how much we are saving in society by using the internet to keep goods in use longer?
On a related question, how much are we saving in our society by having direct sales via the internet? Anything that reduces the margins of retailers is a good thing for a society and selling second goods - or giving them away - on the internet hits at the retailer bottomline.
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Saxe Point Park
I went with my boys to Saxe Point Park yesterday after school. They enjoyed being blown around in the wind.
Monday, March 03, 2008
Yard Cleanup
Finally with a weekend that was sunny and there were no events going on elsewhere, we had a chance to work in the yard. We managed to put together a full pile of branches for the city to pick up this week. The new front garden bed was further worked on and the bulbs we planted in the fall are beginning to come up. The Maddock street fenceline has revealed a space for a flowerbed all along it. This had been hidden under the overgrown shrubs along the length of the fence.
The large bin we have from Victoria Community Composting is full to the brim - 360 litres of yard materials. The company offers a great service, once a month they come by and haul away your compostables, which can include fairly large branches, once a month and you get a 20 litre bag of finished compost. The service costs $20 a month, but I find it more than worth it because of the hassles they take away. I still have a classic black composter, but it only gets some of the overflow.
I have started the first lettuce seedlings indoors and want to try and get a good rotation going. I would like to have us have a head available per day from mid April till early November.
The veggie bed is going to need a lot of work the next time the weather gets nice again. My plan is to make 4x4 beds and work on a decent harvest for this year. I would like to get a lot of strawberries in place along with raspberries. I am not sure yet on what vegetables.
I need to also start on the chicken coop. From the materials that I have from the one I salvaged from the house on Earl Grey Street, I should have everything I need. I would like to have chickens in place my mid May. I think I should have 4, but part of me wants to go to 6. With four I should be getting close to two dozen a week, with six this rises to three. Our use is about one and a half dozen a week at the moment. Four will not really offer me the overflow I would like to have. I would like to be able to give eggs to friends, family and neighbours.
Ultimately I would like to getting enough fresh fruit, vegetables and eggs from the yard to be able to dispense with having to shop for any of it for much of the summer.
I also spend a long time on the weekend working on the flooring for the attic - I needed enough dry weather to be able to work outside with the wood. The salvaged fir flooring needs to be gone through and have all the broken bits cut out of it. The shards of the old fir are being burned each night in the fireplace, I managed to get it hot enough the one night to melt the glass on the fireplace doors....
Pictures and more details on the yard to come in the following weeks.
The large bin we have from Victoria Community Composting is full to the brim - 360 litres of yard materials. The company offers a great service, once a month they come by and haul away your compostables, which can include fairly large branches, once a month and you get a 20 litre bag of finished compost. The service costs $20 a month, but I find it more than worth it because of the hassles they take away. I still have a classic black composter, but it only gets some of the overflow.
I have started the first lettuce seedlings indoors and want to try and get a good rotation going. I would like to have us have a head available per day from mid April till early November.
The veggie bed is going to need a lot of work the next time the weather gets nice again. My plan is to make 4x4 beds and work on a decent harvest for this year. I would like to get a lot of strawberries in place along with raspberries. I am not sure yet on what vegetables.
I need to also start on the chicken coop. From the materials that I have from the one I salvaged from the house on Earl Grey Street, I should have everything I need. I would like to have chickens in place my mid May. I think I should have 4, but part of me wants to go to 6. With four I should be getting close to two dozen a week, with six this rises to three. Our use is about one and a half dozen a week at the moment. Four will not really offer me the overflow I would like to have. I would like to be able to give eggs to friends, family and neighbours.
Ultimately I would like to getting enough fresh fruit, vegetables and eggs from the yard to be able to dispense with having to shop for any of it for much of the summer.
I also spend a long time on the weekend working on the flooring for the attic - I needed enough dry weather to be able to work outside with the wood. The salvaged fir flooring needs to be gone through and have all the broken bits cut out of it. The shards of the old fir are being burned each night in the fireplace, I managed to get it hot enough the one night to melt the glass on the fireplace doors....
Pictures and more details on the yard to come in the following weeks.
Saturday, March 01, 2008
Spencer Road Interchange
I drove up the Malahat to get some rocks for the garden today which meant I had to drive past the site of the protests about the Spencer Road Interchange and the protests against the whole Bear Mountain development aka Skirt Mountain or Spaet.
I had a look, the cutting and work was very well done, certainly of the highest quality. The impact on the environment seems to be minimal and possibly unmeasurable on the macro regional level. The bog was clearly avoided and seems like it will continue fine where it is.
I can understand some of the arguments about not wanting to see more sprawl, but I can not reconcile them with the reality. Bear Mountain is certainly a better use of land than the proposed Westhills. The one reality that needs to be recognized is that we need to build a lot more houses in this region to bring down the price of housing. Houses means the infrastructure for them.
I first moved to Victoria in 1983. At that time there was about 225 000 people in the region, now it is 325 000. This is almost a 50% increase in 25 years. At the same time we have not seen a 50% increase in land with houses on it. Certainly there has been very little development of more blacktop. We have seen only a few kn of freeway like construction in the region and almost no new roads at all other than servicing houses directly within a development.
If the mentality of the 1950s to 70s had prevailed, we would have a freeway from Swartz Bay to downtown and another one from downtown to Duncan.
The reality is that the people are here and they are in cars and they need to be able to get around. The interchange at Spencer road along with four laning the highway to the other side of the Malahat need to occur. The impact on the environment of these actions will be minimal.
I had a look, the cutting and work was very well done, certainly of the highest quality. The impact on the environment seems to be minimal and possibly unmeasurable on the macro regional level. The bog was clearly avoided and seems like it will continue fine where it is.
I can understand some of the arguments about not wanting to see more sprawl, but I can not reconcile them with the reality. Bear Mountain is certainly a better use of land than the proposed Westhills. The one reality that needs to be recognized is that we need to build a lot more houses in this region to bring down the price of housing. Houses means the infrastructure for them.
I first moved to Victoria in 1983. At that time there was about 225 000 people in the region, now it is 325 000. This is almost a 50% increase in 25 years. At the same time we have not seen a 50% increase in land with houses on it. Certainly there has been very little development of more blacktop. We have seen only a few kn of freeway like construction in the region and almost no new roads at all other than servicing houses directly within a development.
If the mentality of the 1950s to 70s had prevailed, we would have a freeway from Swartz Bay to downtown and another one from downtown to Duncan.
The reality is that the people are here and they are in cars and they need to be able to get around. The interchange at Spencer road along with four laning the highway to the other side of the Malahat need to occur. The impact on the environment of these actions will be minimal.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Library strike/lockout
I find the call for pay equity rather odd. There is no internal inequity that I can see among the library workers. The workers think that they should have pay equity with workers from the city of Victoria - I can not see why they are suggesting this.
The GVLRA has suggested looking at what library workers get paid elsewhere and the union has disagreed with this, as has local MLA Rob Flemming.
There are some private sector workers that operate in much the similar environment as the library workers - people in book stores. Much of the staff on the floor at a Chapters seems to know as much as your average clerk in the library. Certainly the staff at Munro's is very comparable to in knowledge to library workers.
The rhetoric of the union seems utterly out of touch with reality. Certainly there are a lot of people out there that instinctively will support the workers as I would have done 15 20 years ago, but I do not see a lot of public support for the workers. Certainly I see few people that seem to understand the issues at stack, all it looks like is a desire by the workers to get a pay increase faster than the rate of inflation.
I am curious, with automated check out system, is there a reduced need for workers in the library? At the new Saanich Centennial branch the vast majority of people use the automated system. As time has gone by the relative cost of staffing has been rising for the library system, something that has happened in almost all sectors.
A have a few things that I think should be considered in this region with respect to libraries. First, why not integrate the school libraries with the public system? This would mean more books for everyone, and ideally more branches to access if one could get access to the schools for the public. It also means that there would be more resources for the schools to offer library programs.
The next level of integration could be with UVic, Camuson and the legislative library.
Ideally I would love to see a new legislative library built close to the legislature. This could be done inconjunction with the Greater Victoria Public Library and be a new larger central branch for the library.
At the corner of Menzies and Superior there is a parking lot - a site of about 2.5 acres. You could build a five floor building, with three floors of underground parking, that would have about 400 000 sq feet of usable space. The building could function as a major library and also be the start of a downtown UVic campus.
If the idea of a downtown UVic campus works, then there is a five acre site to the south of the legislature that needs redevelopment. The site could easily host 700 000 square feet of building and not be very tall. This would allow more offices for the legislature, the existing government offices and allow for more UVic downtown.
There is a further location that could be developed, a half acre at Government and Superior, right now an underused parking lot. Done properly at this location, a development there could connect over Superior to the site on the south side.
Anyway, enough on this going off on a tangent.
I have some other ideas for the libraries - why not have them privately run?
The GVLRA has suggested looking at what library workers get paid elsewhere and the union has disagreed with this, as has local MLA Rob Flemming.
There are some private sector workers that operate in much the similar environment as the library workers - people in book stores. Much of the staff on the floor at a Chapters seems to know as much as your average clerk in the library. Certainly the staff at Munro's is very comparable to in knowledge to library workers.
The rhetoric of the union seems utterly out of touch with reality. Certainly there are a lot of people out there that instinctively will support the workers as I would have done 15 20 years ago, but I do not see a lot of public support for the workers. Certainly I see few people that seem to understand the issues at stack, all it looks like is a desire by the workers to get a pay increase faster than the rate of inflation.
I am curious, with automated check out system, is there a reduced need for workers in the library? At the new Saanich Centennial branch the vast majority of people use the automated system. As time has gone by the relative cost of staffing has been rising for the library system, something that has happened in almost all sectors.
A have a few things that I think should be considered in this region with respect to libraries. First, why not integrate the school libraries with the public system? This would mean more books for everyone, and ideally more branches to access if one could get access to the schools for the public. It also means that there would be more resources for the schools to offer library programs.
The next level of integration could be with UVic, Camuson and the legislative library.
Ideally I would love to see a new legislative library built close to the legislature. This could be done inconjunction with the Greater Victoria Public Library and be a new larger central branch for the library.
At the corner of Menzies and Superior there is a parking lot - a site of about 2.5 acres. You could build a five floor building, with three floors of underground parking, that would have about 400 000 sq feet of usable space. The building could function as a major library and also be the start of a downtown UVic campus.
If the idea of a downtown UVic campus works, then there is a five acre site to the south of the legislature that needs redevelopment. The site could easily host 700 000 square feet of building and not be very tall. This would allow more offices for the legislature, the existing government offices and allow for more UVic downtown.
There is a further location that could be developed, a half acre at Government and Superior, right now an underused parking lot. Done properly at this location, a development there could connect over Superior to the site on the south side.
Anyway, enough on this going off on a tangent.
I have some other ideas for the libraries - why not have them privately run?
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Spencer road interchange
There has been a lot of discussion about the new interchange being built out in Langford at Spencer Road.
There are several issues that come to mind for myself:
1) Why is there so much concern about this location and this construction? The interchange is one of the two next ones that are most likely to be built in the Greater Victoria. Any work on the Malahat would expect to get rid of the light at Spencer road.
The forest area is one that is not of core importance to much. The lands have been harvested in the past and are highly impacted by the urban areas around it. It is also a move away from agricultural lands.
2) Did not the people of Langford elect this council? As far as I can see the public in Langford chose the current council knowing full well that they are a council that favours more development for Langford.
3) If sprawl is the issue, why are we not seeing opposition to all the building in Sooke or on the other side of the Malahat or out on the peninsula? Bear Mountain is a fairly dense housing development that is close to almost all the shopping needs people have. It would seem to be a good fit for the region. It is being built on lands that are not available for use for agriculture.
The interchange is also important to the Westhills development. The primary outlet for the development for people working in the city will be via the new access to the highway or via Sooke Lake road. The Sooke Lake road access will require a new interchange at that location as well and will need the Spencer Road interchange to keep the traffic flowing. The plans for Sooke Lake Road are already in the works as are the Langford Parkway and the Westshore Parkway. The access to Bear Mountain is the smallest of issues as far as I can see.
4) First Nations - why were they not consulted with? It seems as if the developer and the local government spent almost no time talking with the Sencoten or Songhees about the lands in question. Why did they go ahead with archaeological work without the full partnership of the First Nations?
There are several issues that come to mind for myself:
1) Why is there so much concern about this location and this construction? The interchange is one of the two next ones that are most likely to be built in the Greater Victoria. Any work on the Malahat would expect to get rid of the light at Spencer road.
The forest area is one that is not of core importance to much. The lands have been harvested in the past and are highly impacted by the urban areas around it. It is also a move away from agricultural lands.
2) Did not the people of Langford elect this council? As far as I can see the public in Langford chose the current council knowing full well that they are a council that favours more development for Langford.
3) If sprawl is the issue, why are we not seeing opposition to all the building in Sooke or on the other side of the Malahat or out on the peninsula? Bear Mountain is a fairly dense housing development that is close to almost all the shopping needs people have. It would seem to be a good fit for the region. It is being built on lands that are not available for use for agriculture.
The interchange is also important to the Westhills development. The primary outlet for the development for people working in the city will be via the new access to the highway or via Sooke Lake road. The Sooke Lake road access will require a new interchange at that location as well and will need the Spencer Road interchange to keep the traffic flowing. The plans for Sooke Lake Road are already in the works as are the Langford Parkway and the Westshore Parkway. The access to Bear Mountain is the smallest of issues as far as I can see.
4) First Nations - why were they not consulted with? It seems as if the developer and the local government spent almost no time talking with the Sencoten or Songhees about the lands in question. Why did they go ahead with archaeological work without the full partnership of the First Nations?
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Top Ten Reasons Not to Amalgamate
10 More local councilors means more politicians in training for provincial politics.
9 Divided we rule – no need to ever worry about coherent action happening to screw up senior levels of government
8 Local mayors are preparing for the second coming by forming a new 13 disciples group, though disagree on who will be Judas.
7 Cooperation and amalgamation is a communist plot
6 Cooperation and amalgamation is a capitalist plot
5 Since the province and the feds cut taxes we need to make up for the excess money in people’s pockets
4 Help keep UBCM convention solvent by sending 80 more delegates than needed each and every year.
3 The municipal governments created as a make work project for lawyers with 13 sets of bylaws
2 Local mayors are concerned about other municipal governments in Canada and worried that a unified Victoria will carry too much clout and be taken seriously to the detriment of other towns getting more than their fair share.
1 Money, money, money, must be funny in a local taxpayers world.
What is Our Vision?
When I look around this city of ours, I see very little pride but a lot of smugness, the sort of smugness that makes people from elsewhere hope for an earthquake.
Winnipeg can be proud of having a cultural importance way above its weight in a place that humans have a hard time living. Kamloops can be proud of its amazing community spirit and volunteerism – I figure Kamloops would do a better job of 2010 than Vancouver. Fairbanks has its amazing can-do, frontier spirit it can be proud. But here in Victoria we are not proud, we are smug, arrogantly smug
Cities elsewhere in the world envision their future and then strive to try and achieve, here we let the future happen and accept the result, trusting that it will not affect our attitudes of smugness. Why try when this place is so wonderful?
What great people do we have that came from here, that called this city their home? We have the Courtnalls and David Foster but that is not nearly enough.
I dream of a city that people from coast to coast in Canada and around world would know where it is and have an image of it.
This does not mean we need to change the physical look of the city, or have the city grow to some huge metropolitan centre. Our size and scale is almost perfect – another 100 000 to 200 000 over a few generations would enhance the city.
So what can we be known for as a city? What is our place in the world? Clearly we are a centre for the arts or film or governance. We need to express our vision forcefully and push for excellence.
Greater Saanich
Given that Saanich has 114 000 people and that Victoria only has 82 500, why are we calling this region Victoria at all? The time has come to call the region Greater Saanich. Add to this the population of North and Central Saanich and you get to 142 000 people living in a Saanich out of 341 000 total.
Much of what is considered Victoria does not sit in Victoria but in Saanich or North Saanich. UVic and Camosun are both in Saanich. The airport and ferry terminal are in North Saanich.
Much of what is considered Victoria does not sit in Victoria but in Saanich or North Saanich. UVic and Camosun are both in Saanich. The airport and ferry terminal are in North Saanich.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Who is Running for the Councils?
The mayor's seat is open in Victoria as Alan Lowe is not running again, but who will run for his post?
The NDP have closed down their local affiliate the VCE. I think this is a huge mistake on their part as brand names or labels on the ballot are so important in bigger centres to get anyone elected. The simple reality is that few people are well enough known to be able to win a seat on council in Victoria or Saanich without having their affiliation on the ballot. The loss of the VCE will hurt the left in the council elections.
What will also hurt the left is the fact the Dean Fortin is giving up his seat. Incumbency is the single most important factor in the Victoria and Saanich elections. He may run for mayor, I give him a slim chance in a two person race and good odds if there are two candidates to the right of him. Dean Fortin is strongly oriented towards partisan political positions in my opinion. The mayor of the city can have strong political beliefs, but they have to be someone that can work across all political beliefs. I worry he could suffer from the problems David Turner had when he was mayor.
At the moment the most prominent name from the right side for the mayor's chair is Robin Adair. I think he is an interesting and good guy, but I think we have a few better people out there that should consider making a run for the job.
I would love to see Bruce Hallsor make a run at it. His politics are on the right but I have seen the amazing diplomacy he has and his ability to work with people from all political beliefs and treat them with respect.
I would also like to see Chris Coleman put his name forward. He and I are almost 100% in accord with what the city of Victoria and the region needs for the future. He is smart and thoughtful and can work across the political spectrum.
We should see several vacancies on the Victoria city council this time around but I am not sure who the people would be that could win them. I believe that anyone that organizes a formal slate will be able to win a large number of the seats on the next council.
Saanich another time.
The NDP have closed down their local affiliate the VCE. I think this is a huge mistake on their part as brand names or labels on the ballot are so important in bigger centres to get anyone elected. The simple reality is that few people are well enough known to be able to win a seat on council in Victoria or Saanich without having their affiliation on the ballot. The loss of the VCE will hurt the left in the council elections.
What will also hurt the left is the fact the Dean Fortin is giving up his seat. Incumbency is the single most important factor in the Victoria and Saanich elections. He may run for mayor, I give him a slim chance in a two person race and good odds if there are two candidates to the right of him. Dean Fortin is strongly oriented towards partisan political positions in my opinion. The mayor of the city can have strong political beliefs, but they have to be someone that can work across all political beliefs. I worry he could suffer from the problems David Turner had when he was mayor.
At the moment the most prominent name from the right side for the mayor's chair is Robin Adair. I think he is an interesting and good guy, but I think we have a few better people out there that should consider making a run for the job.
I would love to see Bruce Hallsor make a run at it. His politics are on the right but I have seen the amazing diplomacy he has and his ability to work with people from all political beliefs and treat them with respect.
I would also like to see Chris Coleman put his name forward. He and I are almost 100% in accord with what the city of Victoria and the region needs for the future. He is smart and thoughtful and can work across the political spectrum.
We should see several vacancies on the Victoria city council this time around but I am not sure who the people would be that could win them. I believe that anyone that organizes a formal slate will be able to win a large number of the seats on the next council.
Saanich another time.
Friday, February 22, 2008
The Busway - Victoria's Ugly Duckling
It seems almost no one is willing to come out and speak enthusiastically for the bus rapid transit on Douglas.
Let us review the situation:
There is more and more demand to be able to move people out to the western communities and Douglas backs up badly during rush hour.
The BRT would immediately speed up transit for people by five to eight minutes with only the Douglas section, this may not seem like a lot, but this is a 10 to 15% improvement in the transit time for people from Langford. This is enough of an improvement to move people into the buses - even a small transition of people into buses would make a big difference for everyone.
The BRT would have an even more dramatic impact for people living out in the Glandford/Marigold area. They would see their transit trip improve by 20% to 30%. For someone living off of Carey or Glandford, a trip downtown to an office would be under 30 minutes door to door. People agitating for the Light Rail system seem to always forget that the BRT offers options for multiple different routes, something rail can never do.
The time savings of the BRT means that the transit system effectively gains one bonus bus per 8 that operate on the route. Each bus is saving about seven minutes each in time. With nine buses you save an hour of time and the nine buses have moved as many people as 10 could. Once the whole network is in place, the existing buses in Greater Victoria will be able to move significantly more people than now.
There still remains this backlash from businesses along Douglas because of the loss of on street parking and left turn bays. Frankly the number of people turning left in any given block is tiny. The use of the left turn bays are intersections is low along the whole route except for Burnside and Hillside. The few left turn bays lost, and it is only a few, will have no measurable effect on business.
The businesses along the route already look like they are in trouble. The ones that seem to rely on on street parking are weak looking in any case. Will this businesses survive in any case? Anyone in a retail business along the Douglas strip should be looking at relocating. Without the BRT the congestion along Douglas is going to become intolerable and make the route everyone will avoid. With BRT and the turning bays, they movement of people will be better and the access to the businesses will be better.
Let us review the situation:
There is more and more demand to be able to move people out to the western communities and Douglas backs up badly during rush hour.
The BRT would immediately speed up transit for people by five to eight minutes with only the Douglas section, this may not seem like a lot, but this is a 10 to 15% improvement in the transit time for people from Langford. This is enough of an improvement to move people into the buses - even a small transition of people into buses would make a big difference for everyone.
The BRT would have an even more dramatic impact for people living out in the Glandford/Marigold area. They would see their transit trip improve by 20% to 30%. For someone living off of Carey or Glandford, a trip downtown to an office would be under 30 minutes door to door. People agitating for the Light Rail system seem to always forget that the BRT offers options for multiple different routes, something rail can never do.
The time savings of the BRT means that the transit system effectively gains one bonus bus per 8 that operate on the route. Each bus is saving about seven minutes each in time. With nine buses you save an hour of time and the nine buses have moved as many people as 10 could. Once the whole network is in place, the existing buses in Greater Victoria will be able to move significantly more people than now.
There still remains this backlash from businesses along Douglas because of the loss of on street parking and left turn bays. Frankly the number of people turning left in any given block is tiny. The use of the left turn bays are intersections is low along the whole route except for Burnside and Hillside. The few left turn bays lost, and it is only a few, will have no measurable effect on business.
The businesses along the route already look like they are in trouble. The ones that seem to rely on on street parking are weak looking in any case. Will this businesses survive in any case? Anyone in a retail business along the Douglas strip should be looking at relocating. Without the BRT the congestion along Douglas is going to become intolerable and make the route everyone will avoid. With BRT and the turning bays, they movement of people will be better and the access to the businesses will be better.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Rails in Greater Victoria
I have been reading about the history of rail in Victoria. The interurban line ran for a scant 10 years until it was laid to rest. There was not the traffic to support it. The service from Sooke to Victoria did not last much longer.
During the era when there was a lot more need for public transit because people could not buy cars, rail transit in Greater Victoria could not support itself.
Ultimately the trams were taken out in 1948 because buses were faster, cheaper and much more flexible.
During the era when there was a lot more need for public transit because people could not buy cars, rail transit in Greater Victoria could not support itself.
Ultimately the trams were taken out in 1948 because buses were faster, cheaper and much more flexible.
Tillicum Mall Redevelopment
There is a meeting tonight at Pearkes arena for a proposed redevelopment of Tillicum mall. About 7 weeks ago I suggested the same.
They are seriously considering something in the 10 story range. My hope is that they will consider adding more commercial and also office space along with the proposal for the residential.
Adding another 1000 people to that site will be a welcome addition to the neighbourhood. This should add a demand for buses into the neighbourhood. Make more use of the rec centre, make the mall more financially viable.
1000 people in the rest of the neighbourhood would take up about 350 houses. At 5 properties per acre, this would take 70 acres in the rest of the neighbourhood to house this number of people. This is an area equal to everything between Harriet, Burnside, Donald and Obed. All this onto a site that at the moment is nothing more than a parking lot that sits empty almost all the time.
I will be going tonight to very publicly speak in favour of the development
They are seriously considering something in the 10 story range. My hope is that they will consider adding more commercial and also office space along with the proposal for the residential.
Adding another 1000 people to that site will be a welcome addition to the neighbourhood. This should add a demand for buses into the neighbourhood. Make more use of the rec centre, make the mall more financially viable.
1000 people in the rest of the neighbourhood would take up about 350 houses. At 5 properties per acre, this would take 70 acres in the rest of the neighbourhood to house this number of people. This is an area equal to everything between Harriet, Burnside, Donald and Obed. All this onto a site that at the moment is nothing more than a parking lot that sits empty almost all the time.
I will be going tonight to very publicly speak in favour of the development
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Keith Martin in Favour of LRT
I got a newsletter from Keith Martin, MP for Esquimalt Juan de Fuca, and it he is very strongly speaking for LRT for Greater Victoria. He also speaks very strongly in favour of the Spencer Road interchange.
Martin does seem to be realistic in his estimates for the cost to built an LRT from Langford into town, a cost of $500 000 000 to $700 000 000. I think his estimates could be low depending on the route you would use, but he is at least in the ballpark.
What I find interesting is his assumption of a net benefit of $200 000 000 over 20 years from the the LRT. I would like to see how that number is arrived at. IF this true, the benefits cover 1/3 of the interest costs on the money used to build the LRT. If we took the same $500 000 000 and created a foundation to provide local benefits, that foundation would be able to grant about $25 000 000 a year, or half a billion in 20 years.
Even if someone is dumb enough to stump up the cash to build the LRT, there still is not the needed number of people to make the operation work at all.
The Westshore is still only home to a small minority of the people in this region. There simply are not enough people out there that want to go downtown each day to justify rail transit. For an LRT to make sense there would have to be a concerted effort to build a lot more housing in all of the western communities. We would need to see the population rise 30 000 to 40 000 in a few years. The community infrastructure in Langford and Colwood would not handle this growth - look at the troubles Bear Mountain is having.
The LRT idea also assumes that the primary transit if from Langford to downtown. This simply is not the case. Most of us in Greater Victoria live urban Saanich and the City of Victoria. The LRT makes no sense to the 2/3s of the people living at the core of the city.
The idea of a single downtown as a destination is also no longer true. Government offices are moving further out of the core - there is a nice sized cluster at Selkirk Water now. It also ignores UVic - the university is a single destination with a constant level of traffic that would make sense for rail transit. But note that Vancouver has not chosen to build a line to UBC yet.
IF one were to build rail transit in this city, I would argue a circle route would make the most sense. Start Downtown and follow Fort to Foul Bay, up Foul Bay to UVic, then out along Mackenzie then down Quadra, over to Blanshard on Cloverdale and Blanshard to Fort downtown.
This route would be about 16 km long and cost in the range of $800 000 000. Still very expensive. What it does have going for it is enough riders to make the route realistic from an operational view. It also gives the core municipalities the impetus to add density along the route and not to have more greenfield sites made into housing (as would have to be done in the western communities). More people live long this route that work downtown than on any other possible route of the same length. The route also has the advantage of having UVic and Camosum Landsdowne on it and the Royal Jubilee.
Still, would I build this route? No. The operational costs would still mean that the bus network would have to be gutted to make it work and the bus network is the heart of our transit.
Martin does seem to be realistic in his estimates for the cost to built an LRT from Langford into town, a cost of $500 000 000 to $700 000 000. I think his estimates could be low depending on the route you would use, but he is at least in the ballpark.
What I find interesting is his assumption of a net benefit of $200 000 000 over 20 years from the the LRT. I would like to see how that number is arrived at. IF this true, the benefits cover 1/3 of the interest costs on the money used to build the LRT. If we took the same $500 000 000 and created a foundation to provide local benefits, that foundation would be able to grant about $25 000 000 a year, or half a billion in 20 years.
Even if someone is dumb enough to stump up the cash to build the LRT, there still is not the needed number of people to make the operation work at all.
The Westshore is still only home to a small minority of the people in this region. There simply are not enough people out there that want to go downtown each day to justify rail transit. For an LRT to make sense there would have to be a concerted effort to build a lot more housing in all of the western communities. We would need to see the population rise 30 000 to 40 000 in a few years. The community infrastructure in Langford and Colwood would not handle this growth - look at the troubles Bear Mountain is having.
The LRT idea also assumes that the primary transit if from Langford to downtown. This simply is not the case. Most of us in Greater Victoria live urban Saanich and the City of Victoria. The LRT makes no sense to the 2/3s of the people living at the core of the city.
The idea of a single downtown as a destination is also no longer true. Government offices are moving further out of the core - there is a nice sized cluster at Selkirk Water now. It also ignores UVic - the university is a single destination with a constant level of traffic that would make sense for rail transit. But note that Vancouver has not chosen to build a line to UBC yet.
IF one were to build rail transit in this city, I would argue a circle route would make the most sense. Start Downtown and follow Fort to Foul Bay, up Foul Bay to UVic, then out along Mackenzie then down Quadra, over to Blanshard on Cloverdale and Blanshard to Fort downtown.
This route would be about 16 km long and cost in the range of $800 000 000. Still very expensive. What it does have going for it is enough riders to make the route realistic from an operational view. It also gives the core municipalities the impetus to add density along the route and not to have more greenfield sites made into housing (as would have to be done in the western communities). More people live long this route that work downtown than on any other possible route of the same length. The route also has the advantage of having UVic and Camosum Landsdowne on it and the Royal Jubilee.
Still, would I build this route? No. The operational costs would still mean that the bus network would have to be gutted to make it work and the bus network is the heart of our transit.
Friday, February 08, 2008
More on Light Rail
After having looked at the study again, there is one burning question I have - how do I get the next contract from the Communities for Commuter Rail? Clearly they are not too fussed about the quality of the work they get.
The report that came out will do more to harm commuter rail than anything else. Making unrealistic pie in the sky assumptions that make Chamberlain at Munich look like a pessimist does nothing to further the cause of rail.
There are major issues with rail that are almost impossible to overcome.
1) Rolling stock is expensive to buy and maintain. Buses are cheaper on a per passenger basis. Buses are also easier to sell used and bring a higher net return. This is because a bus can be driven to the purchaser and a rail car can not and needs to be specially shipped.
2) Effective rail transit needs separation from the other traffic. This alone makes light rail very, very expensive.
3) Rail transit requires a separate right of way - you have to devote more land to transportation than otherwise. The E and N line is wildly underused but still maintains the space that could be used for many other purposes. Rail transit makes sense when the volumes of traffic are high enough. The number of people on Skytrain can simply not be moved on the surface streets. There is no demand within an order of magnitude of SkyTrain in this region.
Ultimately I do not care about the capital expenditure to put in the rail transit, it is the ongoing costs that bother me the most. I assume that someone could be found to fund the capital expenditure of $35 000 000 or more that would be needed for a half assed and badly done Langford to downtown line and that the people of the CRD are not going to have to pay for this folly directly. The core problem I have is who is going to cover the three to four million dollar a year net cost of the service?
The Greater Victoria transit system has a budget of close to $70 000 000 - having the trains would mean a 5% budget deficit. How would you fund that?
Option One - Higher Fares - you would need to raise the fares by about 25 cents to pay for the trains.
Option Two - Drop the purchase of the new buses
Option Three - Higher property taxes - a 35% increase in the transit portion, or about $17. Keep in mind we are already seeing a dramatic rise in transit from property owners.
Let us say you build the whole thing and then find out that no one is using it. What then? I believe that since there is no evidence of a demand for the service, there should be some way to measure the demand. How about a binding sign on? If 2000 current car commuters are willing to sign a binding pledge to buy a transit pass for five years so that they can use the train, that would then show that there is the demand there.
My estimate is that the operation of the service will require a per trip subsidy of about $14. The current buses require a subsidy of $1.95 a trip.
The economics make no sense at all and that is the core of my problem with the whole idea
The report that came out will do more to harm commuter rail than anything else. Making unrealistic pie in the sky assumptions that make Chamberlain at Munich look like a pessimist does nothing to further the cause of rail.
There are major issues with rail that are almost impossible to overcome.
1) Rolling stock is expensive to buy and maintain. Buses are cheaper on a per passenger basis. Buses are also easier to sell used and bring a higher net return. This is because a bus can be driven to the purchaser and a rail car can not and needs to be specially shipped.
2) Effective rail transit needs separation from the other traffic. This alone makes light rail very, very expensive.
3) Rail transit requires a separate right of way - you have to devote more land to transportation than otherwise. The E and N line is wildly underused but still maintains the space that could be used for many other purposes. Rail transit makes sense when the volumes of traffic are high enough. The number of people on Skytrain can simply not be moved on the surface streets. There is no demand within an order of magnitude of SkyTrain in this region.
Ultimately I do not care about the capital expenditure to put in the rail transit, it is the ongoing costs that bother me the most. I assume that someone could be found to fund the capital expenditure of $35 000 000 or more that would be needed for a half assed and badly done Langford to downtown line and that the people of the CRD are not going to have to pay for this folly directly. The core problem I have is who is going to cover the three to four million dollar a year net cost of the service?
The Greater Victoria transit system has a budget of close to $70 000 000 - having the trains would mean a 5% budget deficit. How would you fund that?
Option One - Higher Fares - you would need to raise the fares by about 25 cents to pay for the trains.
Option Two - Drop the purchase of the new buses
Option Three - Higher property taxes - a 35% increase in the transit portion, or about $17. Keep in mind we are already seeing a dramatic rise in transit from property owners.
Let us say you build the whole thing and then find out that no one is using it. What then? I believe that since there is no evidence of a demand for the service, there should be some way to measure the demand. How about a binding sign on? If 2000 current car commuters are willing to sign a binding pledge to buy a transit pass for five years so that they can use the train, that would then show that there is the demand there.
My estimate is that the operation of the service will require a per trip subsidy of about $14. The current buses require a subsidy of $1.95 a trip.
The economics make no sense at all and that is the core of my problem with the whole idea
Thursday, February 07, 2008
Victoria Housing Prices
The price of housing in Victoria is too high. This comes about for one single reason, there is not enough supply to meet demand. The more housing units will mean more cheaper housing for everyone.
The faster something like Bear Mountain is built, the more people move there from their houses elsewhere in Victoria. Each time someone buys one of the new upper end houses, they start a chain of purchases going down the value chain. The more Gordon Head or Broadmead houses that come on the market, the more the buyer gets a deal. This means the lower value neighhourhoods have more houses on the market as people try to move to the upper scale neighbourhoods.
If we were to see 3000 new housing units built in the region per year, we would see the market stagnate and the price of housing to fall in relative terms. We would also see a lot more housing come onto the rental market as it empty houses are of no financial benefit.
If people want to see lower housing costs in this city, they should be backing every proposed housing development. Every huge condo tower needs to go ahead.
The interesting thing at the moment is that people are opposing the Bear Mountain development. People are protesting the construction of the needed interchange at Spencer Road. If they manage to stop the housing being built, they will reduce the new housing stock coming onto the market and thereby keep vacancy rates very low and house prices high. For the sake of low cost housing we need to see numerous more Bear Mountains built in this region ASAP.
The faster something like Bear Mountain is built, the more people move there from their houses elsewhere in Victoria. Each time someone buys one of the new upper end houses, they start a chain of purchases going down the value chain. The more Gordon Head or Broadmead houses that come on the market, the more the buyer gets a deal. This means the lower value neighhourhoods have more houses on the market as people try to move to the upper scale neighbourhoods.
If we were to see 3000 new housing units built in the region per year, we would see the market stagnate and the price of housing to fall in relative terms. We would also see a lot more housing come onto the rental market as it empty houses are of no financial benefit.
If people want to see lower housing costs in this city, they should be backing every proposed housing development. Every huge condo tower needs to go ahead.
The interesting thing at the moment is that people are opposing the Bear Mountain development. People are protesting the construction of the needed interchange at Spencer Road. If they manage to stop the housing being built, they will reduce the new housing stock coming onto the market and thereby keep vacancy rates very low and house prices high. For the sake of low cost housing we need to see numerous more Bear Mountains built in this region ASAP.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Trains for Victoria
So there is a report out there speaking about the feasibility of running commuter rail on the E and N line for a $16 000 000 initial investment and an annual $2 000 000 operating cost.
I am skeptical about the report for several reasons:
The shorter O Train line in Ottawa was built for $21 000 000 about seven years ago. They needed to make no track upgrades. $6 000 000 of the costs for the O Train was for the rolling stock. The O train is also 100% separate from vehicle traffic.
18 km of rail track is not a cheap thing to build. I walked along numerous section of the existing line and it is in need of a major overhaul. There many years of deferred maintenance is going to cost more than $350 000 per km to overcome. This does not include the need several locations for trains to pass each other.
I can not see any mention of the needs for a maintenance yard/shed - is the proposal to use the existing location in Vic West?
I can not see any mention of all of the level crossings - there are some major problematic ones out there that need some sort of attention before you could run regular rail service. As far as I can tell is that any road costs have been off loaded in the report to local government or the provincial government. The cost of dealing with some of the more problematic intersections has to be addressed before this can go forward.
The suggested schedule of once every half hour seems unrealistic with a single train. The O Train in Ottawa manages an 8 km trip in 12 minutes with a total of five stations. They need three trains to maintain a 15 minute schedule in Ottawa. An 18 km trip with five stations indicates to me that a 25 minute trip is on the upper end of realistic. With a 25 minutes trip you need to have at least two trains to maintain a half an hour schedule. A single train will mean an hourly schedule.
The use of the same rolling stock as Ottawa is highly unlikely. The deal that Ottawa got on them is unlikely to be available again. Given the massive objection to building ferries in Germany, I am sure that people will object to trains being built there.
Ridership seems inflated to me. The O-Train in Ottawa has Carleton on its route and therefore serves a lot of University students. The E and N line has very few offices within 500 metres of the end station downtown. Most office workers downtown are about 700 to 1000 metres from the end of the line. Studies have shown that the relationship between users of transit and distance to their final destination is an inverse square relationship. The only location that seems well located for the line is the Graving Dock.
I have seen some differing numbers on the total number of riders, I have seen 700 to 12oo round trips and 1400 and 2300 round trips. With the upper number, you would need to have 10 trips into town at close to full capacity. With a half an hour schedule you need to have rush hour spread out over five hours to achieve this. The capacity of the line on a half hour schedule is 530 people in an hour. Assuming that the lower set is correct and the media made some errors, what would 1000 round trips mean for revenue? A total revenue of $1 125 000 a year presuming that all the fares are paid on a cash basis. In reality most of the users will use their transit pass and therefore drop the revenue to less than $1 000 000 in one year.
Operation costs seem low to me. I can not see any mention of such things as insurance, security staff, or rail traffic control. The other costs look too low to be able to provide the service suggested. In looking at comparable services, a much more realistic operating cost is in the range of $3 000 000 to $4 000 000 per year.
I can not see how the line would cost at least $2 000 000 a year to operate than what it costs to bring in. It seems to me that the subsidy would be more like $4 per trip taken or $8 per round trip.
I am skeptical about the report for several reasons:
The shorter O Train line in Ottawa was built for $21 000 000 about seven years ago. They needed to make no track upgrades. $6 000 000 of the costs for the O Train was for the rolling stock. The O train is also 100% separate from vehicle traffic.
18 km of rail track is not a cheap thing to build. I walked along numerous section of the existing line and it is in need of a major overhaul. There many years of deferred maintenance is going to cost more than $350 000 per km to overcome. This does not include the need several locations for trains to pass each other.
I can not see any mention of the needs for a maintenance yard/shed - is the proposal to use the existing location in Vic West?
I can not see any mention of all of the level crossings - there are some major problematic ones out there that need some sort of attention before you could run regular rail service. As far as I can tell is that any road costs have been off loaded in the report to local government or the provincial government. The cost of dealing with some of the more problematic intersections has to be addressed before this can go forward.
The suggested schedule of once every half hour seems unrealistic with a single train. The O Train in Ottawa manages an 8 km trip in 12 minutes with a total of five stations. They need three trains to maintain a 15 minute schedule in Ottawa. An 18 km trip with five stations indicates to me that a 25 minute trip is on the upper end of realistic. With a 25 minutes trip you need to have at least two trains to maintain a half an hour schedule. A single train will mean an hourly schedule.
The use of the same rolling stock as Ottawa is highly unlikely. The deal that Ottawa got on them is unlikely to be available again. Given the massive objection to building ferries in Germany, I am sure that people will object to trains being built there.
Ridership seems inflated to me. The O-Train in Ottawa has Carleton on its route and therefore serves a lot of University students. The E and N line has very few offices within 500 metres of the end station downtown. Most office workers downtown are about 700 to 1000 metres from the end of the line. Studies have shown that the relationship between users of transit and distance to their final destination is an inverse square relationship. The only location that seems well located for the line is the Graving Dock.
I have seen some differing numbers on the total number of riders, I have seen 700 to 12oo round trips and 1400 and 2300 round trips. With the upper number, you would need to have 10 trips into town at close to full capacity. With a half an hour schedule you need to have rush hour spread out over five hours to achieve this. The capacity of the line on a half hour schedule is 530 people in an hour. Assuming that the lower set is correct and the media made some errors, what would 1000 round trips mean for revenue? A total revenue of $1 125 000 a year presuming that all the fares are paid on a cash basis. In reality most of the users will use their transit pass and therefore drop the revenue to less than $1 000 000 in one year.
Operation costs seem low to me. I can not see any mention of such things as insurance, security staff, or rail traffic control. The other costs look too low to be able to provide the service suggested. In looking at comparable services, a much more realistic operating cost is in the range of $3 000 000 to $4 000 000 per year.
I can not see how the line would cost at least $2 000 000 a year to operate than what it costs to bring in. It seems to me that the subsidy would be more like $4 per trip taken or $8 per round trip.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Time to Separate
The time has come for Vancouver Island to separate from BC and create ourselves as our own province.
We have a large enough population to make sense as a province, our 725 000 people is only slightly less than New Brunswick's 750 000. Our population is also growing at a reasonable rate and should reach parity with Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia in the early 20s.
Our economy is well balanced among a number of different sectors.
We have one very strong university and a number of decent post secondary institutions. This bodes well to having a growing knowledge sector.
With the growth in the Comox Valley and the good air links eastwards, the centre of the island will help to balance the dominance Victoria has on the island.
I would envisage the new Vancouver Island province including all the Gulf Islands, the Powell river area and the mainland coast as far north as northern tip of Vancouver Island.
BC Ferries would become Vancouver Island Ferries.
I would see us having a legislature of about 50 of 60 MLAs - an improvement over the current 13 and a half out of 79. The lower mainland would not dominate the interests of the island.
Federally we would have 6 senators and 10 MPs. Currently we share 6 Senators will all of BC and have 6 MPs. Our political weight would improve in Ottawa.
We would have a reduction in the number of civil servants because the headquarters branches of most of the ministries would no longer be needed in Victoria.
We have a large enough population to make sense as a province, our 725 000 people is only slightly less than New Brunswick's 750 000. Our population is also growing at a reasonable rate and should reach parity with Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia in the early 20s.
Our economy is well balanced among a number of different sectors.
We have one very strong university and a number of decent post secondary institutions. This bodes well to having a growing knowledge sector.
With the growth in the Comox Valley and the good air links eastwards, the centre of the island will help to balance the dominance Victoria has on the island.
I would envisage the new Vancouver Island province including all the Gulf Islands, the Powell river area and the mainland coast as far north as northern tip of Vancouver Island.
BC Ferries would become Vancouver Island Ferries.
I would see us having a legislature of about 50 of 60 MLAs - an improvement over the current 13 and a half out of 79. The lower mainland would not dominate the interests of the island.
Federally we would have 6 senators and 10 MPs. Currently we share 6 Senators will all of BC and have 6 MPs. Our political weight would improve in Ottawa.
We would have a reduction in the number of civil servants because the headquarters branches of most of the ministries would no longer be needed in Victoria.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Back from the BC Transit Open House
I went to the BC Transit open house held at the Sandman on Douglas at Hillside. They had on display the Bus Rapid Transit plans for Douglas.
The expected savings for buses along the route is in the range of 5 minutes. This does not sound like a huge amount, but it drops a time out to Langford from 48 minutes to 43 minutes. Once the BRT is extended along Hwy #1 the time will drop to 43 minutes.
The BRT will take you from downtown to Town and Country in just over 10 minutes and there will be buses every few minutes. This should change the nature of how transit is used along the Douglas corridor.
I saw the plans for the exchange at Carey Road near to Town and Country. Finally there will be a proper bus exchange at what should be the most important point in the system.
All the buses will come into the Carey Road exchange, including the Saanich Peninsula buses. This location will make for a very important hub and spoke in the transit system. This is a far cry from what I remember from the 1980s when the only option you had was to take a bus downtown and then change there to anywhere else. Only the 26 did not fit this model.
I also like what I heard about the buses out to the Peninsula. Starting in the fall there will be an express bus out to the ferry every half and hour in daytime hours. The new express bus will shave 20 minutes off of the trip into town from the ferry. Sidney will have a bus coming into to town once every 15 minutes. The Sidney buses will also be routed down Douglas instead of Blanshard.
I raised my concern that all the left turn and U turn options along Douglas would reduce the time savings of the buses. It seems that this might be the case. The buses could be a few minutes faster if all these left turn options were not going to be offered.
The buses will also have some control over the lights, they will be able to extend the greens and be able to cycle a red to green faster.
I had a chance to ask a long series of questions of planners while I was at the open house. They were very much in line with my thinking on rail transit: very expensive to build, expensive to operate, no route in place, not enough of a population to support it, and generally a very bad fit for Greater Victoria.
In one conversation at the open house with a man looking at the plans, the issue of rail from Duncan came up. It was then that I remembered we already have a bus service from Duncan to Victoria. You can take the Greyhound from Duncan to Victoria in one hour and ten minutes. From Malahat it is 40 minutes to downtown Victoria. The round trip cost from Malahat is $10.30. The service is there, how many people make use of it?
The expected savings for buses along the route is in the range of 5 minutes. This does not sound like a huge amount, but it drops a time out to Langford from 48 minutes to 43 minutes. Once the BRT is extended along Hwy #1 the time will drop to 43 minutes.
The BRT will take you from downtown to Town and Country in just over 10 minutes and there will be buses every few minutes. This should change the nature of how transit is used along the Douglas corridor.
I saw the plans for the exchange at Carey Road near to Town and Country. Finally there will be a proper bus exchange at what should be the most important point in the system.
All the buses will come into the Carey Road exchange, including the Saanich Peninsula buses. This location will make for a very important hub and spoke in the transit system. This is a far cry from what I remember from the 1980s when the only option you had was to take a bus downtown and then change there to anywhere else. Only the 26 did not fit this model.
I also like what I heard about the buses out to the Peninsula. Starting in the fall there will be an express bus out to the ferry every half and hour in daytime hours. The new express bus will shave 20 minutes off of the trip into town from the ferry. Sidney will have a bus coming into to town once every 15 minutes. The Sidney buses will also be routed down Douglas instead of Blanshard.
I raised my concern that all the left turn and U turn options along Douglas would reduce the time savings of the buses. It seems that this might be the case. The buses could be a few minutes faster if all these left turn options were not going to be offered.
The buses will also have some control over the lights, they will be able to extend the greens and be able to cycle a red to green faster.
I had a chance to ask a long series of questions of planners while I was at the open house. They were very much in line with my thinking on rail transit: very expensive to build, expensive to operate, no route in place, not enough of a population to support it, and generally a very bad fit for Greater Victoria.
In one conversation at the open house with a man looking at the plans, the issue of rail from Duncan came up. It was then that I remembered we already have a bus service from Duncan to Victoria. You can take the Greyhound from Duncan to Victoria in one hour and ten minutes. From Malahat it is 40 minutes to downtown Victoria. The round trip cost from Malahat is $10.30. The service is there, how many people make use of it?
Trip to the City of Victoria Archives
I had some time to kill while waiting for my car to be serviced and since I was close to City Hall, I dropped in on the archives. I only had a short time there but took a look as some old maps while I was in there.
The pictures are all from BC Archives .
Gorge park had a loop turnaround for the streetcars.
I had no idea that BC Electric operated a yard for streetcars at Burnside and Harriet. The location is now a series of houses and a 7-11.
This is one of the series pictures from the end of the streetcar era in 1948. In looking through a lot of the pictures of the streetcars in Victoria from the 1890s to the 1940s, one thing I see that changes over that time is the typical traffic on the street. Before World War 2 the number of private cars is very limited, but by as early as 1948 there is an explosion of cars.
In cities that have streetcars and cars sharing the roads, the traffic intrusion of the streetcar is much higher than what would happen with a bus.
This phot being the process used to remove the tracks from the streets. It is sad to see something cool like streetcars no longer with us, but they simply do not mix well with other road uses and can not be used in a versatile way as a bus can.
Having ridden a bike in a city that has streetcars I can tell you the tracks are a cyclists nightmare. They are traps waiting to either break some spokes if you are lucky to horribly flip you through the air.
I can imagine what would happen if anyone seriously suggested bring back streetcars. The shop owners along the route would scream about the loss of trade due to the construction. The people living along the route would complain about the noise - steel on steel on a curve typically has a nasty high pitched metal scrapping noise. And finally people would scream about the ugliness of the overhead wires needed.
The pictures are all from BC Archives .
Gorge park had a loop turnaround for the streetcars.I had no idea that BC Electric operated a yard for streetcars at Burnside and Harriet. The location is now a series of houses and a 7-11.
This is one of the series pictures from the end of the streetcar era in 1948. In looking through a lot of the pictures of the streetcars in Victoria from the 1890s to the 1940s, one thing I see that changes over that time is the typical traffic on the street. Before World War 2 the number of private cars is very limited, but by as early as 1948 there is an explosion of cars.
In cities that have streetcars and cars sharing the roads, the traffic intrusion of the streetcar is much higher than what would happen with a bus.
This phot being the process used to remove the tracks from the streets. It is sad to see something cool like streetcars no longer with us, but they simply do not mix well with other road uses and can not be used in a versatile way as a bus can.
Having ridden a bike in a city that has streetcars I can tell you the tracks are a cyclists nightmare. They are traps waiting to either break some spokes if you are lucky to horribly flip you through the air.
I can imagine what would happen if anyone seriously suggested bring back streetcars. The shop owners along the route would scream about the loss of trade due to the construction. The people living along the route would complain about the noise - steel on steel on a curve typically has a nasty high pitched metal scrapping noise. And finally people would scream about the ugliness of the overhead wires needed.
More on the Busway
Today there are some open houses here in town about the busway. I will be going to the one at the Sandman on Douglas this afternoon.
I have had some comments about what I have had to say about transit in this region so I will respond to some of the issues raised.
Many people out there are still sold on rail transit versus buses. In all the looking I have done over the past few weeks, I can not find a business case that supports the concept of rail transit for this region. There is nothing out there. How does one pay for the hundreds of millions it will cost to built the most basic single short rail transit line? Where will the money come from? How will we pay for the operation of the line? Where does the money come from?????
We do have examples of successful express bus systems. I have been very impressed with what Ottawa put into place. The system works very well and cost a lot less to build than a rail system and has more flexible. The B Lines in Vancouver are also examples of good bus options for transit.
Buses have so much a higher degree of flexibility. If traffic demands it, you can easily add more buses or use higher capacity buses. If traffic is low, you use small buses. If a route needs to shift a bit, there is the ability to do so as the demand changes.
Here in Victoria the major bus routes have been stopping at the same locations for decades. Their routing has not changed but their frequency has. The routes are well known and consistent.
Putting the busway along Blanshard makes no sense given the logistics of getting the buses to their intended destinations.
More later, I have to go into town now.
I have had some comments about what I have had to say about transit in this region so I will respond to some of the issues raised.
Many people out there are still sold on rail transit versus buses. In all the looking I have done over the past few weeks, I can not find a business case that supports the concept of rail transit for this region. There is nothing out there. How does one pay for the hundreds of millions it will cost to built the most basic single short rail transit line? Where will the money come from? How will we pay for the operation of the line? Where does the money come from?????
We do have examples of successful express bus systems. I have been very impressed with what Ottawa put into place. The system works very well and cost a lot less to build than a rail system and has more flexible. The B Lines in Vancouver are also examples of good bus options for transit.
Buses have so much a higher degree of flexibility. If traffic demands it, you can easily add more buses or use higher capacity buses. If traffic is low, you use small buses. If a route needs to shift a bit, there is the ability to do so as the demand changes.
Here in Victoria the major bus routes have been stopping at the same locations for decades. Their routing has not changed but their frequency has. The routes are well known and consistent.
Putting the busway along Blanshard makes no sense given the logistics of getting the buses to their intended destinations.
More later, I have to go into town now.
Henderson Bike Route
One of the single busiest bicycle destinations in Greater Victoria is UVic. I remember biking there in the 1980s and the lack of separation on the roads between bikes and cars. I remember Henderson Road and remember the way the road encouraged speed through its wide lanes and the danger at driveways hidden behind parked cars. It is not one of the safer routes to UVic for a bike.
Work has been done to provide access to the campus for bikes from all directions. One of the clear routes that needs to be there is the one up Foul Bay Road and then along Henderson onto the campus. But beware.........
here lurk NIMBYs!
People living along Henderson Road have opposed the loss of their on street parking to bicycles.
Oak Bay council continues their decidedly non green ways by voting down the bike route in favour of allowing more cars to park along the road. It seems that Hazel Braithwaite, Frank Carson, Allan Cassidy and Joh Herbert are all opposed. The Mayor, Chris Cawstonm, along with Nils Jensen and Pam Copley are in favour.
All I can think is that the councilors opposed are in some way wanting university students to get less exercise and not do as much as they can towards a cleaner environment.
Safer Cycling Oak Bay has a petition in favour of the route - I will be signing and hope others will as well.
What I find most bizarre is that the house along Henderson all seem to have more than enough space to be able to have six cars parked there - two in the garage and four on their driveway. The number of times per year that you need to be able to park more than six cars at a house is very, very limited. There is enough parking nearby that there is no need for on street parking. Drive along this road and look for yourself. When I looked I could not find a house that would be more than 100 metres for a place to park.
It is this attitude in Oak Bay by the residents of Henderson Road and the council why we will see very few concrete actions that reduce green house gases. Realistically green house gases will be dealt with through carbon sequestration and not through major reductions by the public
Work has been done to provide access to the campus for bikes from all directions. One of the clear routes that needs to be there is the one up Foul Bay Road and then along Henderson onto the campus. But beware.........
here lurk NIMBYs!
People living along Henderson Road have opposed the loss of their on street parking to bicycles.
Oak Bay council continues their decidedly non green ways by voting down the bike route in favour of allowing more cars to park along the road. It seems that Hazel Braithwaite, Frank Carson, Allan Cassidy and Joh Herbert are all opposed. The Mayor, Chris Cawstonm, along with Nils Jensen and Pam Copley are in favour.
All I can think is that the councilors opposed are in some way wanting university students to get less exercise and not do as much as they can towards a cleaner environment.
Safer Cycling Oak Bay has a petition in favour of the route - I will be signing and hope others will as well.
What I find most bizarre is that the house along Henderson all seem to have more than enough space to be able to have six cars parked there - two in the garage and four on their driveway. The number of times per year that you need to be able to park more than six cars at a house is very, very limited. There is enough parking nearby that there is no need for on street parking. Drive along this road and look for yourself. When I looked I could not find a house that would be more than 100 metres for a place to park.
It is this attitude in Oak Bay by the residents of Henderson Road and the council why we will see very few concrete actions that reduce green house gases. Realistically green house gases will be dealt with through carbon sequestration and not through major reductions by the public
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Electronic Media in Victoria
On most days I feel like I am in a black hole when it comes to electronic media in this city. We have a few TV stations and a few more radio stations, but not really a lot of either.
TV
None of the local stations broadcast with a strong enough signal that I can actually pick them on my TV. I have given up cable because it is an old and inflexible technology.
CHEK TV - all they offer for local programming seems to be the news and it based on the classic bland and pointless coverage that focuses on fires and crashes. Not a single local program about the place we live in. No local drama or comedy - and given the huge market out there for content, there is clearly a market for something produced here that is local.
A Channel - repeat the above. Frankly the local stations are completely interchangeable.
Shaw Cable - The produce local programs, I am even on some of them commenting on politics, but since I do not have cable, I do not see the programs. I would like to see some of them as I understand that they do have local content.
RADIO
We have the following:
Not that Vancouver is doing any better.
The presence of Victoria in the electronic media is effectively non existent. I have no idea what the answer is. I doubt there are many people with much interest in fixing the problem
TV
None of the local stations broadcast with a strong enough signal that I can actually pick them on my TV. I have given up cable because it is an old and inflexible technology.
CHEK TV - all they offer for local programming seems to be the news and it based on the classic bland and pointless coverage that focuses on fires and crashes. Not a single local program about the place we live in. No local drama or comedy - and given the huge market out there for content, there is clearly a market for something produced here that is local.
A Channel - repeat the above. Frankly the local stations are completely interchangeable.
Shaw Cable - The produce local programs, I am even on some of them commenting on politics, but since I do not have cable, I do not see the programs. I would like to see some of them as I understand that they do have local content.
RADIO
We have the following:
CKMO AM 900 - the Village - lots of good world music and some interesting other stuff.
CFAX AM 1070 - Our only talk radio station. Sort of OK, the hosts are old, the station is underfunded and it ticks along.....
- CBC Radio One - 90.5 FM We get a local morning program for the island and host the afternoon non-Metro Vancouver drive time show. This is less than 30 hours a week of programming produced locally.
- The Zone - 91.3 bland, bland, bland corporate rock music - zero local feel
- The Ocean - 98.5 bland, bland, bland corporate bland music - zero local feel
- The Q - 100.3 more bland without local feel
- CFUV - 101.9 Campus radio - the community aspect seems to be gone. The best going locally, but it suffers from hit and miss with respect to quality.
- Jack FM - 103.1 another bland corporate formula - I have it one because it is easier than changing the CDs in the car
- Kool FM - 107.3 blah, blah, blah, blah
- CILS - 107.9 Victoria's newest station and only French station, I have never listened to this community radio station.
Not that Vancouver is doing any better.
The presence of Victoria in the electronic media is effectively non existent. I have no idea what the answer is. I doubt there are many people with much interest in fixing the problem
Electoral Reform
Victoria is the hot bed of electoral reform in Canada. There will be a chance to come meet the directors of Fair Voting BC on Feb 2.
Fair Voting BC Notice of Beer/Dinner Night Feb 2, 2008 in Victoria
=========================================================
Meet the Directors: Please join us for a beer and/or dinner!
The Directors will be meeting in Victoria on Saturday, February 2, 2008 and we would like to meet with local supporters afterwards.
Accordingly, we have arranged with the Canoe Club in Victoria (http://www.canoebrewpub.com) to have an area set aside for us from 5:30 to 8:00 pm so that we can socialize over dinner and beer. We will be meeting in an area just to the right of the main door on the first level.
Please feel free to forward this note to anyone you think would be interested in joining us.
Please RSVP so that I can give the pub some idea of numbers and reserve the right amount of space.
Parking can be tight in this area but is easier if you are willing to walk a few blocks (see map and note about parking on their website).
PS: I have had to send this note out to everyone on my distribution list since I don't have physical locations for most people. We are planning to have directors meetings in other parts of the province and will organize pub nights accordingly.
=========================================================
Please RSVP to FairVotingBC@telus.net or phone 250-384-0666
=========================================================
Prepared by Wendy Bergerud, January 2008
Donations are, of course, greatly appreciated. While Fair Voting BC is a non-profit society, we are unable to issue charitable tax receipts. This is because our mandate is considered political and so we don't qualify for charitable tax status. We now have an online donation system working - check our website at www.fairvotingbc.com. On the other hand, donations (to Fair Voting BC) can always be sent to me since I am also the treasurer! Please send to 1183 Wicklow Place, Victoria, V8X 4M8 for snail mail.
Fair Voting BC Notice of Beer/Dinner Night Feb 2, 2008 in Victoria
=========================================================
Meet the Directors: Please join us for a beer and/or dinner!
The Directors will be meeting in Victoria on Saturday, February 2, 2008 and we would like to meet with local supporters afterwards.
Accordingly, we have arranged with the Canoe Club in Victoria (http://www.canoebrewpub.com) to have an area set aside for us from 5:30 to 8:00 pm so that we can socialize over dinner and beer. We will be meeting in an area just to the right of the main door on the first level.
Please feel free to forward this note to anyone you think would be interested in joining us.
Please RSVP so that I can give the pub some idea of numbers and reserve the right amount of space.
Parking can be tight in this area but is easier if you are willing to walk a few blocks (see map and note about parking on their website).
PS: I have had to send this note out to everyone on my distribution list since I don't have physical locations for most people. We are planning to have directors meetings in other parts of the province and will organize pub nights accordingly.
=========================================================
Please RSVP to FairVotingBC@telus.net or phone 250-384-0666
=========================================================
Prepared by Wendy Bergerud, January 2008
Donations are, of course, greatly appreciated. While Fair Voting BC is a non-profit society, we are unable to issue charitable tax receipts. This is because our mandate is considered political and so we don't qualify for charitable tax status. We now have an online donation system working - check our website at www.fairvotingbc.com. On the other hand, donations (to Fair Voting BC) can always be sent to me since I am also the treasurer! Please send to 1183 Wicklow Place, Victoria, V8X 4M8 for snail mail.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Light Rail For Victoria - You Need Drugs To Think It Makes Sense
I am still amazed this idea has not been out to rest yet. There are so many problems with idea that I do not know where to begin.
Railcars - you need to buy these at a cost of twice as much per seat as a bus. Each 40 seat rail car will cost you more than a double decker bus. To make them worth their money, you need to make twice the use of them.
The Route - let us say that you can get the E and N line for free. The route would have to be significantly upgraded - at a minimum you need to double track the whole route, something that is not possible at various spots along the route. There are spots in Esquimalt where the buildings on either side are only 16 metres apart.
The route would also play havoc with traffic at numerous spots along the route. As an example at Esquimalt Road the line crosses in such a way as to an oblique and dramatic angle. To deal with this problem, a four lane over pass would have to be built for the road at a cost of tens of millions of dollars.
The end of the route would require something to be done about the pedestrian and cycle traffic over the Johnson Street bridge. The route from the roundhouse would have to single track. Only one train at a time could discharge in downtown at a time. This would limit how often trains could arrive downtown and limit the the capacity of the network. I suspect this would limit it to only once every 10 minutes. A four car train would bring in about 150 people if it was full. That would be less than 1000 people per hour into downtown.
You can also look at the intersection with Lampson or at Admirals. Both locations would have huge problems with traffic management. The only access to the Esquimalt Reserve would be effectively cut off unless you did some major road rebuilding. We have not even reached View Royal and the tab for simply managing the road issues is reaching something close to $100 000 000. This does not include anything to do with the actual cost of building the rail line needed.
In View Royal we have some interesting problems. Where do you put the station? There is no space at the Old Island Highway where the tracks go over the road unless you pave over Portage Park. The route would need several four bridges to be built one of which would be over 100 metres long.
The comes the nightmare corner - Goldstream and Veteran's Memorial Parkway. The cost to fix that location will be in the $50 000 000 to $100 000 000 range, assuming it is possible to do at all. The intersection of Jacklin and Dunford is not as bad, but still a problem.
Between CFB Esquimalt and the centre of Langford, the route has very limited density. In large part this is because people did not want to live next to the tracks. There is very little traffic to be picked up along the way.
If one were to only go as fas as Goldstream Ave and avoided that nightmare intersection, about 12 km of track would have to be built - yes, the whole track has to be rebuilt because it is not built to a standard to allow for trains moving at anything above a crawl. How much would it cost to built this 12 km commuter rail?
Rail cars - you would need about about 16 of them, this would cost you about $20 000 000
Intersection rebuilds would add another $100 000 000
12 km of double track rail would cost you about $50 000 000 - this assumes the engineering needs keep it all simple.
You would need to expand the right of way by about the equivalent of 100 city lots. That would run you another $50 000 000 - ball park.
A rail maintenance yard has to be built - $30 000 000
We where are we at cost-wise? $250 000 000. This is working from an existing right of way. If we push to another 2.5 km further westwards the costs rise to over $350 000 000.
That is a lot of money for 10 000 passenger trips a day. The interest on this amount would be about $13 000 000 a year, or about $4 per passenger trip.
What I have not even touched on is the higher operating cost of the trains when compared to buses.
At best you would be saving about 10 minutes on the bus. The time savings would be zero once there is a bus lane.
Everyone thinking about rail for this region needs to give their head a serious shake, it is fundamentally economically flawed.
Railcars - you need to buy these at a cost of twice as much per seat as a bus. Each 40 seat rail car will cost you more than a double decker bus. To make them worth their money, you need to make twice the use of them.
The Route - let us say that you can get the E and N line for free. The route would have to be significantly upgraded - at a minimum you need to double track the whole route, something that is not possible at various spots along the route. There are spots in Esquimalt where the buildings on either side are only 16 metres apart.
The route would also play havoc with traffic at numerous spots along the route. As an example at Esquimalt Road the line crosses in such a way as to an oblique and dramatic angle. To deal with this problem, a four lane over pass would have to be built for the road at a cost of tens of millions of dollars.
The end of the route would require something to be done about the pedestrian and cycle traffic over the Johnson Street bridge. The route from the roundhouse would have to single track. Only one train at a time could discharge in downtown at a time. This would limit how often trains could arrive downtown and limit the the capacity of the network. I suspect this would limit it to only once every 10 minutes. A four car train would bring in about 150 people if it was full. That would be less than 1000 people per hour into downtown.
You can also look at the intersection with Lampson or at Admirals. Both locations would have huge problems with traffic management. The only access to the Esquimalt Reserve would be effectively cut off unless you did some major road rebuilding. We have not even reached View Royal and the tab for simply managing the road issues is reaching something close to $100 000 000. This does not include anything to do with the actual cost of building the rail line needed.
In View Royal we have some interesting problems. Where do you put the station? There is no space at the Old Island Highway where the tracks go over the road unless you pave over Portage Park. The route would need several four bridges to be built one of which would be over 100 metres long.
The comes the nightmare corner - Goldstream and Veteran's Memorial Parkway. The cost to fix that location will be in the $50 000 000 to $100 000 000 range, assuming it is possible to do at all. The intersection of Jacklin and Dunford is not as bad, but still a problem.
Between CFB Esquimalt and the centre of Langford, the route has very limited density. In large part this is because people did not want to live next to the tracks. There is very little traffic to be picked up along the way.
If one were to only go as fas as Goldstream Ave and avoided that nightmare intersection, about 12 km of track would have to be built - yes, the whole track has to be rebuilt because it is not built to a standard to allow for trains moving at anything above a crawl. How much would it cost to built this 12 km commuter rail?
Rail cars - you would need about about 16 of them, this would cost you about $20 000 000
Intersection rebuilds would add another $100 000 000
12 km of double track rail would cost you about $50 000 000 - this assumes the engineering needs keep it all simple.
You would need to expand the right of way by about the equivalent of 100 city lots. That would run you another $50 000 000 - ball park.
A rail maintenance yard has to be built - $30 000 000
We where are we at cost-wise? $250 000 000. This is working from an existing right of way. If we push to another 2.5 km further westwards the costs rise to over $350 000 000.
That is a lot of money for 10 000 passenger trips a day. The interest on this amount would be about $13 000 000 a year, or about $4 per passenger trip.
What I have not even touched on is the higher operating cost of the trains when compared to buses.
At best you would be saving about 10 minutes on the bus. The time savings would be zero once there is a bus lane.
Everyone thinking about rail for this region needs to give their head a serious shake, it is fundamentally economically flawed.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Money for the Busway
Yesterday's announcement by the government of its transit plan included a bit for Victoria.
The biggest was the concept of a rapid bus out to Langford from downtown. This nicely mirrors what the region has been considering and shows that the government is ready to put in the money needed to make it happen.
The brochure had a picture of a proposed bus only overpass for the Mackenzie and Hwy #1 intersection. Interesting as an idea, but I wonder how much time this would actually save? I think you can get much further if you simply add a lane to the road for buses only. But, the picture is said to only be an artists concept.
I am sure there will be people complaining here in the CRD about the lack of anything to do with rail. When are people going to see that there is no viable business model for rail in the Greater Victoria area? We do not have the people or density to make rail an option. Can we really afford to turn over all the land needed for a single use?
I am sure that the Douglas busway is still going to have a long gestation period before it manages to come into existence on the ground in this city.
Here is a suggestion that will get more people out of their cars. Make some of the lanes on Douglas and Hwy #1 transit only during peak hours. The buses would wiz out and the rest of the traffic would sit and not move. There would be enough of a time savings that people would be motivated to move out of their cars.
The biggest was the concept of a rapid bus out to Langford from downtown. This nicely mirrors what the region has been considering and shows that the government is ready to put in the money needed to make it happen.
The brochure had a picture of a proposed bus only overpass for the Mackenzie and Hwy #1 intersection. Interesting as an idea, but I wonder how much time this would actually save? I think you can get much further if you simply add a lane to the road for buses only. But, the picture is said to only be an artists concept.
I am sure there will be people complaining here in the CRD about the lack of anything to do with rail. When are people going to see that there is no viable business model for rail in the Greater Victoria area? We do not have the people or density to make rail an option. Can we really afford to turn over all the land needed for a single use?
I am sure that the Douglas busway is still going to have a long gestation period before it manages to come into existence on the ground in this city.
Here is a suggestion that will get more people out of their cars. Make some of the lanes on Douglas and Hwy #1 transit only during peak hours. The buses would wiz out and the rest of the traffic would sit and not move. There would be enough of a time savings that people would be motivated to move out of their cars.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
A Grand Park for Victoria
The Victoria suffers from not having a central grand park such as Stanley Park in Vancouver, Gasworks Park in Seattle, Toronto Island, Prince's Island in Calgary or Hyde Park in London.
We have Beacon Hill park that no longer acts as the sort of grand urban park that the city needs. Beacon Hill has had its ability to host community events and be a gathering place killed off over the last 20 years - far enough now that it has become logistically impossible to have it be the cornerstone of the community.
One could recover Beacon Hill park to what is should be for the community, but if I were to start from scratch, it is not a location I would choose for this city at this time.
What I see the park needing to have are the following:
We have some decent parks are the perimeter of the city - Mount Doug, Thetis Lake, and Elk Lake - but they are being focused on as urban wilderness spaces and not as a public gathering places for the community. I can not see there being willingness of the public to accept 30 to 50 acres of Mount Doug being made into much heavier use, even though this is less than 10% of the park.
Places I think this grand urban park could go are the following locations:
Cuthbert Holmes Park - this is the park next to Tillicum mall. The site is about 60 acres in size and could be rebuilt to be the park for the region. The Tillicum mall offers the parking and transit needs. The Pearkes Rec Centre offers the building facilities needed. The setting could be made into a beautiful urban manicured park with some very decent ampitheatre like setting possible in the northeast corner.
Kinsman Gorge and the Gorge Park in Saanich offers a potential site of about 40 acres to work with. If one were to build a lower level pedesitrian bridge and a decent set of underpasses at the Tillicum bridge, one could unify the two sides of the Gorge and make one park that could offer the setting the community needs. This site has the advantage that it is already reasonably heavily managed and not a 'wild' park. What is missing are any sort of community buildings or facilities. This location already hosts some community events of some reasonable scale.
Another location would the the Cedar Hill Golf Course. I personally think that it is unreasonable for Saanich to devote close to 130 acres of park land to golf. Golf is wildly land intensive for a relatively small number of users. Cedar Hill Park has the space and setting to become our Central Park, it is the only existing park that is comparable to Beacon Hill Park in size and is not 'wild' in nature. It could host huge community events. It could offer the space for numerous groups to hold their events and not interfere with each other. The only problem is that the location is not on many main routes and has very little transit accessing it. The golfers would also object and raise merry hell.
The Blenkinsop valley could host a park, but I am certain the nimby reaction would swift and loud.
Layritz Park is about 60 acres in size so therefore has the space, and the proximity to Camosun and the Van Isle Tech Park means there is existing parking available that is underused on weekends and holidays. The biggest problem with this location is that it is too far off the beaten path.
This central regional community park is crucial for our region to build a stronger social capital. The time has come for this debate and I hope that I can get it rolling.
We have Beacon Hill park that no longer acts as the sort of grand urban park that the city needs. Beacon Hill has had its ability to host community events and be a gathering place killed off over the last 20 years - far enough now that it has become logistically impossible to have it be the cornerstone of the community.
One could recover Beacon Hill park to what is should be for the community, but if I were to start from scratch, it is not a location I would choose for this city at this time.
What I see the park needing to have are the following:
- Green space
- Space for crowds of 50 to 30 000 to be able to gather for an event
- Real day to day use of the space
- A rec with full facilities on site
- Decent transit and parking
- A reasonable distance for most people in greater Victoria
We have some decent parks are the perimeter of the city - Mount Doug, Thetis Lake, and Elk Lake - but they are being focused on as urban wilderness spaces and not as a public gathering places for the community. I can not see there being willingness of the public to accept 30 to 50 acres of Mount Doug being made into much heavier use, even though this is less than 10% of the park.
Places I think this grand urban park could go are the following locations:
Cuthbert Holmes Park - this is the park next to Tillicum mall. The site is about 60 acres in size and could be rebuilt to be the park for the region. The Tillicum mall offers the parking and transit needs. The Pearkes Rec Centre offers the building facilities needed. The setting could be made into a beautiful urban manicured park with some very decent ampitheatre like setting possible in the northeast corner.
Kinsman Gorge and the Gorge Park in Saanich offers a potential site of about 40 acres to work with. If one were to build a lower level pedesitrian bridge and a decent set of underpasses at the Tillicum bridge, one could unify the two sides of the Gorge and make one park that could offer the setting the community needs. This site has the advantage that it is already reasonably heavily managed and not a 'wild' park. What is missing are any sort of community buildings or facilities. This location already hosts some community events of some reasonable scale.
Another location would the the Cedar Hill Golf Course. I personally think that it is unreasonable for Saanich to devote close to 130 acres of park land to golf. Golf is wildly land intensive for a relatively small number of users. Cedar Hill Park has the space and setting to become our Central Park, it is the only existing park that is comparable to Beacon Hill Park in size and is not 'wild' in nature. It could host huge community events. It could offer the space for numerous groups to hold their events and not interfere with each other. The only problem is that the location is not on many main routes and has very little transit accessing it. The golfers would also object and raise merry hell.
The Blenkinsop valley could host a park, but I am certain the nimby reaction would swift and loud.
Layritz Park is about 60 acres in size so therefore has the space, and the proximity to Camosun and the Van Isle Tech Park means there is existing parking available that is underused on weekends and holidays. The biggest problem with this location is that it is too far off the beaten path.
This central regional community park is crucial for our region to build a stronger social capital. The time has come for this debate and I hope that I can get it rolling.
Friday, January 11, 2008
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Douglas Busway
This issue is heating up here in Victoria. There is all manner of new opposition coming from people who are concerned about the impact to businesses on Douglas, but I fail to see where the worry comes from.
Issue One - The Best Location for the Busway
Some people are suggesting the busway be put on Blanshard. There are numerous reasons this makes little sense. The buses would all have to shift over a block somewhere at the end of downtown and make a left turn onto Blanshard. The buses going out to the western communities would then have to shift back to Douglas sometime again, likely at Saanich road, this would cause more traffic problems and slow the buses down.
Blanshard also has many fewer destinations along its route that have transit demand.
Number 70 and 75 already run up Blanshard and seem to do well enough.
Douglas meanwhile has the 30, 31, 50, and 61 running the whole length which come once every three minutes in peak times. There are four more heavily used routes use the southern half. Douglas is where the buses are at the moment.
Issue Two - Loss of on street parking
As is stands, there is very little street parking on Douglas in north of Bay. South of Bay there is an average amount, but not a lot. Almost all the businesses along the proposed busway rely very little on Douglas for parking.
Could there be an isolated business on the south end of the Douglas that relies on free parking from the city? That is likely, but why should we be providing free on street parking for these businesses in any case? The lanes of the roads are there to move traffic - that is there highest and best use of the land.
Issue Three - the bus stops will be in the middle of the street
This is a bizarre concern to me as I am not sure why people think the public will not be able to cross to the centre to get on the busses.
Issue Four - We should be considering rail
Rail transit is very expensive. To build an at grade LRT out to the western communities from downtown would cost something in the order of $200 000 000. To move it above the other traffic in the manner of SkyTrain would boost this cost to $300 000 000. The interest alone on this would cost $10 000 000 a year.
For an LRT to make sense, you need to be looking at 100 000 trips per day. The whole Victoria transit system has about 55 000 to 60 000 per day.
For an LRT to work you have to work with existing density. The two locations the most people are trying to get to are downtown and UVic. Secondary nodes are Camosun Interurban and CFB Esquimalt. The problem is that none of these locations are bookends to a route that makes sense or have a clear place that people are gathered from.
An at grade system is a traffic nightmare. Each and every level crossing would have to block traffic when the train came.
Existing rail lines and former rail line locations are not well located or ready to be used. The E and N line is not built to run rail transit. The route is one that the trains have to be limited in speed.
A single rail car that run commuters into town costs more than twice the same cost as a bus that can carry the same number of people. To put it in other terms, each rail car would mean two less buses on the roads. Rail cars are limited to where they can go, buses are flexible. BC Transit has also diversified the type of buses in use to reflect the demand on a route. You can not do that as easily with rail
Issue Five - Loss of left turn bays
There are very few left turn bays along Douglas. A few will be kept but most of the locations where one can turn left at the moment do more to hinder movement than provide anything useful for movement of traffic. It is my neighbourhood that will be most effected but the problems will be minimal.
On the south end it will help a lot not allowing left turns. Right now a single car can effectively block a lane of through traffic.
Issue Six - South end of Douglas business
This area is ripe for redevelopment. The area is a rundown and ugly eyesore. The area between Fisgard and Bay and Blanshard and Store is filled with run down commercial buildings. This is an area that could and should be rebuilt with office commercial in towers and condos. This redevelopment will happen and has been proposed in several different areas already. The busway is no problem for the redevelopment.
Issue One - The Best Location for the Busway
Some people are suggesting the busway be put on Blanshard. There are numerous reasons this makes little sense. The buses would all have to shift over a block somewhere at the end of downtown and make a left turn onto Blanshard. The buses going out to the western communities would then have to shift back to Douglas sometime again, likely at Saanich road, this would cause more traffic problems and slow the buses down.
Blanshard also has many fewer destinations along its route that have transit demand.
Number 70 and 75 already run up Blanshard and seem to do well enough.
Douglas meanwhile has the 30, 31, 50, and 61 running the whole length which come once every three minutes in peak times. There are four more heavily used routes use the southern half. Douglas is where the buses are at the moment.
Issue Two - Loss of on street parking
As is stands, there is very little street parking on Douglas in north of Bay. South of Bay there is an average amount, but not a lot. Almost all the businesses along the proposed busway rely very little on Douglas for parking.
Could there be an isolated business on the south end of the Douglas that relies on free parking from the city? That is likely, but why should we be providing free on street parking for these businesses in any case? The lanes of the roads are there to move traffic - that is there highest and best use of the land.
Issue Three - the bus stops will be in the middle of the street
This is a bizarre concern to me as I am not sure why people think the public will not be able to cross to the centre to get on the busses.
Issue Four - We should be considering rail
Rail transit is very expensive. To build an at grade LRT out to the western communities from downtown would cost something in the order of $200 000 000. To move it above the other traffic in the manner of SkyTrain would boost this cost to $300 000 000. The interest alone on this would cost $10 000 000 a year.
For an LRT to make sense, you need to be looking at 100 000 trips per day. The whole Victoria transit system has about 55 000 to 60 000 per day.
For an LRT to work you have to work with existing density. The two locations the most people are trying to get to are downtown and UVic. Secondary nodes are Camosun Interurban and CFB Esquimalt. The problem is that none of these locations are bookends to a route that makes sense or have a clear place that people are gathered from.
An at grade system is a traffic nightmare. Each and every level crossing would have to block traffic when the train came.
Existing rail lines and former rail line locations are not well located or ready to be used. The E and N line is not built to run rail transit. The route is one that the trains have to be limited in speed.
A single rail car that run commuters into town costs more than twice the same cost as a bus that can carry the same number of people. To put it in other terms, each rail car would mean two less buses on the roads. Rail cars are limited to where they can go, buses are flexible. BC Transit has also diversified the type of buses in use to reflect the demand on a route. You can not do that as easily with rail
Issue Five - Loss of left turn bays
There are very few left turn bays along Douglas. A few will be kept but most of the locations where one can turn left at the moment do more to hinder movement than provide anything useful for movement of traffic. It is my neighbourhood that will be most effected but the problems will be minimal.
On the south end it will help a lot not allowing left turns. Right now a single car can effectively block a lane of through traffic.
Issue Six - South end of Douglas business
This area is ripe for redevelopment. The area is a rundown and ugly eyesore. The area between Fisgard and Bay and Blanshard and Store is filled with run down commercial buildings. This is an area that could and should be rebuilt with office commercial in towers and condos. This redevelopment will happen and has been proposed in several different areas already. The busway is no problem for the redevelopment.
Thursday, January 03, 2008
Increasing density
I believe that Saanich should look at allowing a dramatic increase in the density along Tillicum Road from Gorge to Hwy #1.
If one looks at the Tillicum mall area one can see that this location has a lot of the amenities the public needs located in one area. This area lends itself a walking lifestyle without a lot of difficulty. We have the Pearkes Rec Centre there, Silver City, Cuthbert Holmes Park, several mid range restaurants, a Starbucks, a Safeway, dentist and doctors' clinics and now a library. The location is also well suited for access to schools with Tillicum Elementary and Colquitz Middle School within a short walk of the site.
The frontage of the Tillicum mall on Tillicum road is a large empty park lot. There is ample space to build condos on this space and have underground parking. Something like Tuscany village, only larger. One could construct two levels of underground parking - with a link into the lower level of the mall. Frankly I believe one could expand the lower level of the mall.
On the surface one could expand the street level shopping as part of the condo development.
A four to five story development would offer 200 000 sq feet of retail and 450 000 sq feet of living space. That is 300 living units on that location - roughly another 450 people living in the area. On the rear side of the site one could construct something of a similar scale. Adding close to 1000 people to the area on this site is realistic.
Also realistic would be the construction of a 10 story tall office tower at some location on the site. 300 000 sq feet of space is realistic and would place a larger daytime demand on the location.
I would construct a pool on the site as well - make it part of the development permit requirement and have one more reason to reduce the need of the public to travel.
The location is well situated for transit to most locations in Greater Victoria and should mean that the increased population would mean a lower increase in cars on the road. You can get to Downtown, UVic/Gordon Head, Camosun, Esquimalt, Oak Bay, and Hillside without having to change buses.
The location is also a very good one for access out of via car - Hwy #1 is right at hand and Hwy #17 is not far away. You can be in most locations in Greater Victoria rather quickly.
There are more areas in the neighbourhood that could be redeveloped for more businesses, retail and residential. The wedge of land between Hwy #1, Burnside and Tillicum is rife for redevelopment. The northern chunk is a very badly built and maintained condo development. Frankly the whole development needs to be pulled down. I would suggest that all the owners be offered units in a new development in return for selling the site. Saanich should allow a much higher density on the location.
The whole wedge is about 12 acres in size - large enough to allow for a lot of commercial, retail and residential construction. With enough density allowed, the location could house 2000 people and offer 600 000 sq feet of both retail and commercial space.
I would construct a large pedestrian overpass across to Tillicum Mall - 20 to 30 feet across and plants and landscaping.
Finally, the area could use some sort of late night locations - a good bar or nightclub would be beneficial.
If one looks at the Tillicum mall area one can see that this location has a lot of the amenities the public needs located in one area. This area lends itself a walking lifestyle without a lot of difficulty. We have the Pearkes Rec Centre there, Silver City, Cuthbert Holmes Park, several mid range restaurants, a Starbucks, a Safeway, dentist and doctors' clinics and now a library. The location is also well suited for access to schools with Tillicum Elementary and Colquitz Middle School within a short walk of the site.
The frontage of the Tillicum mall on Tillicum road is a large empty park lot. There is ample space to build condos on this space and have underground parking. Something like Tuscany village, only larger. One could construct two levels of underground parking - with a link into the lower level of the mall. Frankly I believe one could expand the lower level of the mall.
On the surface one could expand the street level shopping as part of the condo development.
A four to five story development would offer 200 000 sq feet of retail and 450 000 sq feet of living space. That is 300 living units on that location - roughly another 450 people living in the area. On the rear side of the site one could construct something of a similar scale. Adding close to 1000 people to the area on this site is realistic.
Also realistic would be the construction of a 10 story tall office tower at some location on the site. 300 000 sq feet of space is realistic and would place a larger daytime demand on the location.
I would construct a pool on the site as well - make it part of the development permit requirement and have one more reason to reduce the need of the public to travel.
The location is well situated for transit to most locations in Greater Victoria and should mean that the increased population would mean a lower increase in cars on the road. You can get to Downtown, UVic/Gordon Head, Camosun, Esquimalt, Oak Bay, and Hillside without having to change buses.
The location is also a very good one for access out of via car - Hwy #1 is right at hand and Hwy #17 is not far away. You can be in most locations in Greater Victoria rather quickly.
There are more areas in the neighbourhood that could be redeveloped for more businesses, retail and residential. The wedge of land between Hwy #1, Burnside and Tillicum is rife for redevelopment. The northern chunk is a very badly built and maintained condo development. Frankly the whole development needs to be pulled down. I would suggest that all the owners be offered units in a new development in return for selling the site. Saanich should allow a much higher density on the location.
The whole wedge is about 12 acres in size - large enough to allow for a lot of commercial, retail and residential construction. With enough density allowed, the location could house 2000 people and offer 600 000 sq feet of both retail and commercial space.
I would construct a large pedestrian overpass across to Tillicum Mall - 20 to 30 feet across and plants and landscaping.
Finally, the area could use some sort of late night locations - a good bar or nightclub would be beneficial.
Thursday, December 06, 2007
Alan Lowe stepping down
Alan Lowe has let people know that he will not be running for office again in the next election. He has been mayor now since 1999 and generally been a decent and non controversial mayor. He has had some vision for the city and has not been bogged down by ego or incompetence. Where will he go from here? I am not certain and I am not sure it really matters. He would likely make a good MLA or MP, but that is after the next municipal elections.
The mayor of the city of Victoria is the most important political position in this region. Even though Saanich has a greater population, it is the mayor of Victoria that speaks for the region. No MLA or MP holds as much weight as representative of the region as Victoria's mayor.
The question now becomes who will run for the job? I thought it was an error on Rob Flemming's part that he did not run for mayor of Victoria in 2005. Sitting on the opposition benches was a less than wise move for him. He could have won in 2005, Alan Lowe was challenged by Ben Isitt and did not do nearly as well as he should have. A few terms in the mayors chair and Rob Flemming could have developed the experience and skills to be a strong MLA or MP, he would have gone into any race as a star. Instead of this he is one more forgettable opposition MLA.
Who might run in 2008 for the mayor's seat? I think Dean Fortin is the obvious choice from the left side of the spectrum - one hopes the left is done with the insurgency campaign of Ben Isitt. There are no other obvisous names on the left that I can think of that might run.
Some other people I think would be interesting ones to see run.
Bruce Hallsor - I have seen him work with people from all political stripes and he would make a great mayor. Bruce is honest, diplomatic and patient.
Jim Legh - Yes, another lawyer. Jim has a lot of passion and vision for Victoria.
Chris Coleman - He has been on council for some years now and I like his approach to community engagement. He can work with people from all political stripes and has some real vision for the city.
Robin Adair - I see him coming into the race as the voice for the business community if he does. I am not sure he has all the skills needed to be a mayor on a council that is likely to be split left and right with some people on the council with many years experience on it.
Art Aylesworth - Former CEO of Carmanah Technologies. I can see him being courted as a star, but I do not know enough about him to know if he has the experience to skills needed to be mayor.
Russ Courtnall - He has been courted by the right in Victoria several times to consider making a run for office. Ottawa was ruled out by him because of all the travel. Why not mayor?
More musing on who might run and who might make a good mayor in the next months.
The mayor of the city of Victoria is the most important political position in this region. Even though Saanich has a greater population, it is the mayor of Victoria that speaks for the region. No MLA or MP holds as much weight as representative of the region as Victoria's mayor.
The question now becomes who will run for the job? I thought it was an error on Rob Flemming's part that he did not run for mayor of Victoria in 2005. Sitting on the opposition benches was a less than wise move for him. He could have won in 2005, Alan Lowe was challenged by Ben Isitt and did not do nearly as well as he should have. A few terms in the mayors chair and Rob Flemming could have developed the experience and skills to be a strong MLA or MP, he would have gone into any race as a star. Instead of this he is one more forgettable opposition MLA.
Who might run in 2008 for the mayor's seat? I think Dean Fortin is the obvious choice from the left side of the spectrum - one hopes the left is done with the insurgency campaign of Ben Isitt. There are no other obvisous names on the left that I can think of that might run.
Some other people I think would be interesting ones to see run.
Bruce Hallsor - I have seen him work with people from all political stripes and he would make a great mayor. Bruce is honest, diplomatic and patient.
Jim Legh - Yes, another lawyer. Jim has a lot of passion and vision for Victoria.
Chris Coleman - He has been on council for some years now and I like his approach to community engagement. He can work with people from all political stripes and has some real vision for the city.
Robin Adair - I see him coming into the race as the voice for the business community if he does. I am not sure he has all the skills needed to be a mayor on a council that is likely to be split left and right with some people on the council with many years experience on it.
Art Aylesworth - Former CEO of Carmanah Technologies. I can see him being courted as a star, but I do not know enough about him to know if he has the experience to skills needed to be mayor.
Russ Courtnall - He has been courted by the right in Victoria several times to consider making a run for office. Ottawa was ruled out by him because of all the travel. Why not mayor?
More musing on who might run and who might make a good mayor in the next months.
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
The cost of housing
The price to buy a house in Victoria remains high and still seems to be climbing, though much slower than before.
For the few months the median price for a house in greater Victoria has hovered at around $510 000 and the average price has been in the $570 000 range. Condos are closing in on $300 000. What this means is that the cost to buy a house has become unrealistic for many people. The first time home buyer has to look at the bottom end of the condo market.
You can get into an older 2 bedroom condo for about $220 000. Assuming you get a low equity mortgage, you are looking at payments of about $1500 a month. Add to that another $100 a month in property tax and $200 in condo fees, you will be paying about $1800 a month for this place. A couple where both are making about $45 000 a year means a take home pay of about $5500 a month. The $1800 is about 1/3 of their take home pay each month.
If you want to get into the cheapest house available, you are looking at about $370 000 to buy anything. This would mean a monthly mortgage payment of $2500 a month over 25 years - if you go to 40 years you can reduce this to $2200 a month. Add to this your property taxes and other municipal fees and you get to a monthly housing cost of $2600 to $2900 a month. This speaks to the need to have a take home income of $7500 to $9000 range or a gross annual income of about $70 000 each for a couple.
This places houses outside of the range of new buyers in this region.
Meanwhile the rental market in this city has become dire. There are simply many more potential renters than houses to rent. Rents are rising and landlords have no trouble getting people willing to pay the higher rents. To rent a house is going to cost you about $1800 a month in this city if you can find one. Yes, this makes it affordable for a working couple, but it really does not work for single earner families.
Getting a job paying $12 an hour is easy in this city. You would earn about $22 000 a year at that rate. The rent for a house would be almost that much. You can rent an apartment for somewhere in the range of $700 a month. If you rent something like that and are earning $12 per hour, you are left with about $1000 a month to spend.
Housing is a problem and will remain a problem in this city unless there is a dramatic increase in the amount of housing stock available. I can see all the signs that the real estate market has topped out. I expect it will begin to decline over 2008 and take a bigger drop in 2009. This might open up the market in the city.
For the few months the median price for a house in greater Victoria has hovered at around $510 000 and the average price has been in the $570 000 range. Condos are closing in on $300 000. What this means is that the cost to buy a house has become unrealistic for many people. The first time home buyer has to look at the bottom end of the condo market.
You can get into an older 2 bedroom condo for about $220 000. Assuming you get a low equity mortgage, you are looking at payments of about $1500 a month. Add to that another $100 a month in property tax and $200 in condo fees, you will be paying about $1800 a month for this place. A couple where both are making about $45 000 a year means a take home pay of about $5500 a month. The $1800 is about 1/3 of their take home pay each month.
If you want to get into the cheapest house available, you are looking at about $370 000 to buy anything. This would mean a monthly mortgage payment of $2500 a month over 25 years - if you go to 40 years you can reduce this to $2200 a month. Add to this your property taxes and other municipal fees and you get to a monthly housing cost of $2600 to $2900 a month. This speaks to the need to have a take home income of $7500 to $9000 range or a gross annual income of about $70 000 each for a couple.
This places houses outside of the range of new buyers in this region.
Meanwhile the rental market in this city has become dire. There are simply many more potential renters than houses to rent. Rents are rising and landlords have no trouble getting people willing to pay the higher rents. To rent a house is going to cost you about $1800 a month in this city if you can find one. Yes, this makes it affordable for a working couple, but it really does not work for single earner families.
Getting a job paying $12 an hour is easy in this city. You would earn about $22 000 a year at that rate. The rent for a house would be almost that much. You can rent an apartment for somewhere in the range of $700 a month. If you rent something like that and are earning $12 per hour, you are left with about $1000 a month to spend.
Housing is a problem and will remain a problem in this city unless there is a dramatic increase in the amount of housing stock available. I can see all the signs that the real estate market has topped out. I expect it will begin to decline over 2008 and take a bigger drop in 2009. This might open up the market in the city.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Our Local Papers
Victoria News
Oak Bay News
Saanich News
Goldstream Gazette
Peninsula News Review
Monday Magazine
I find that these papers are a REAL pain in the ass to read through when delivered to the door, but I am much happier with the online versions. Online I can quickly look and see what the stories are that they are covering and read the interesting ones.
I do have an issue with the areas the papers cover. The core was once served by five papers but the Esquimalt News has been amalgamated with the Victoria News. But still have four local papers covering things based on municipal boundaries and not our neighbourhoods.
Ideally if one were change things a bit to the following:
Eastside News - focuses on news from Blanshard eastwards
Downtown News - focuses on the business core but also out to Town and Country - could include Vic West and Esquimalt, it could also include Fernwood
Westside News - focuses on Douglas westwards from Bay St northwards
These three papers would reflect the larger communities we have in our region and not the fictions that are our municipal governments.
Oak Bay News
Saanich News
Goldstream Gazette
Peninsula News Review
Monday Magazine
I find that these papers are a REAL pain in the ass to read through when delivered to the door, but I am much happier with the online versions. Online I can quickly look and see what the stories are that they are covering and read the interesting ones.
I do have an issue with the areas the papers cover. The core was once served by five papers but the Esquimalt News has been amalgamated with the Victoria News. But still have four local papers covering things based on municipal boundaries and not our neighbourhoods.
Ideally if one were change things a bit to the following:
Eastside News - focuses on news from Blanshard eastwards
Downtown News - focuses on the business core but also out to Town and Country - could include Vic West and Esquimalt, it could also include Fernwood
Westside News - focuses on Douglas westwards from Bay St northwards
These three papers would reflect the larger communities we have in our region and not the fictions that are our municipal governments.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Sale of the Western Forest Products lands
Western Forest Products has put on the market about 28000 hectares of land on Vancouver Island, including some interesting waterfront properties out near Jordan River.
The scale of the sales are still not a huge and dramatic amount of lands. 28 000 ha is 280 sq km or an area 14 km by 20 km. When looking at the size of Vancouver Island this is not much. The sale of the land near Jordan River is 1800ha, I suspect that this is about 40 to 50 individual pieces of land. Without zoning permission and subdivision, these properties are not really that useful to anyone.
The individual properties do not have access to them, they do not have electrical power, and they are limited by the existing restrictions of rural areas. Within the current rules, the most one could do with this land is create about 50 saleable properties, but at a huge cost because of the basic infrastructure that needs to be built. Without local government approval, these lands are not really worth much to a developer. As a single private estate they are something amazing and unique, but that is not what I expect the developer bought them for.
One impact that no one is looking with these lands is the impact on the AAC (annual allowable cut) of WFP. I do not know what the MAI (mean annual increase) is for the lands, but let us assume it is about 2 cubic metres per ha. The sale of these lands will decrease the WFP AAC by somewhere around 50 000 cubic metres per year. This is enough of a drop to put one logging crew out of work and the amount of wood a typical coastal mill for about a month.
The sale will also add a lot of property tax income to local governments. Right now for property tax purposes the WFP lands are taxed as managed forest lands. Property tax is paid based on the value of timber harvested in a given year. No harvesting, no property tax.
With the sale of the land, the property becomes liable for property tax based on the value of the land if it were sold on the open market. Each individual lot is about an average size of 40ha and has a value of about $300 000 each and have a tax value of about $1500 a year. The sale of the 1800 ha near Jordan River should result in a property tax windfall of about $70 000 a year.
The scale of the sales are still not a huge and dramatic amount of lands. 28 000 ha is 280 sq km or an area 14 km by 20 km. When looking at the size of Vancouver Island this is not much. The sale of the land near Jordan River is 1800ha, I suspect that this is about 40 to 50 individual pieces of land. Without zoning permission and subdivision, these properties are not really that useful to anyone.
The individual properties do not have access to them, they do not have electrical power, and they are limited by the existing restrictions of rural areas. Within the current rules, the most one could do with this land is create about 50 saleable properties, but at a huge cost because of the basic infrastructure that needs to be built. Without local government approval, these lands are not really worth much to a developer. As a single private estate they are something amazing and unique, but that is not what I expect the developer bought them for.
One impact that no one is looking with these lands is the impact on the AAC (annual allowable cut) of WFP. I do not know what the MAI (mean annual increase) is for the lands, but let us assume it is about 2 cubic metres per ha. The sale of these lands will decrease the WFP AAC by somewhere around 50 000 cubic metres per year. This is enough of a drop to put one logging crew out of work and the amount of wood a typical coastal mill for about a month.
The sale will also add a lot of property tax income to local governments. Right now for property tax purposes the WFP lands are taxed as managed forest lands. Property tax is paid based on the value of timber harvested in a given year. No harvesting, no property tax.
With the sale of the land, the property becomes liable for property tax based on the value of the land if it were sold on the open market. Each individual lot is about an average size of 40ha and has a value of about $300 000 each and have a tax value of about $1500 a year. The sale of the 1800 ha near Jordan River should result in a property tax windfall of about $70 000 a year.
Monday, October 22, 2007
The Times Colonist series on commuting
The series was moderately interesting. The one thing that I note above else out of the series is the scale with which people are out of touch with want is realistic.
Can we really expect people to get out of their cars when more and more of the jobs in the region are not at the hub of transit?
As an example, there are a lot of offices on Chatterton Way, on the south side of Broadmead. There is no easy way for most people to get to this location with a bus unless they live on the route of the number 6. With the nice access to highway 17, I suspect that there are almost no transit users for this location.
The same sort of thing applies for the Vancouver Island Technology Park. Only the #39 gets you there, though the #8 and #21 get you to Camosun Interurban. Frankly, Camosun interurban is not well served at all given the number of people out there each and every day.
And then we have all the high tech/light industrial out in Central Saanich. Only the #75 services the area.
Places people work in the region are further and further dispersed. Making transit work will be harder all the time.
The best thing that could be done would be focus all work/education/entertainment expansion in the region in the following area:
Blanshard - Finlayson - Burnside - Tillicum - Mackenzie.
By using this as the core, there is a easy access to it from almost everywhere. It makes a perfect new hub for all transit in the region. Highway 17 and Highway 1 feed right into the area.
Already this area has buses going out to all the Western Communities and Saanich Penisula. It has bus connections to Gordon Head, Esquimalt, James Bay, Oak Bay, Fernwood, Broadmead and more.
The redevelopment of the Town and Country mall is a good start, as is all the work at Selkirk water. But there has to be a lot more done in this area. This is where the major arena should have gone for this region. Ideally there should be a lot more office buildings constructed in this area and move government further out from the current downtown.
Can we really expect people to get out of their cars when more and more of the jobs in the region are not at the hub of transit?
As an example, there are a lot of offices on Chatterton Way, on the south side of Broadmead. There is no easy way for most people to get to this location with a bus unless they live on the route of the number 6. With the nice access to highway 17, I suspect that there are almost no transit users for this location.
The same sort of thing applies for the Vancouver Island Technology Park. Only the #39 gets you there, though the #8 and #21 get you to Camosun Interurban. Frankly, Camosun interurban is not well served at all given the number of people out there each and every day.
And then we have all the high tech/light industrial out in Central Saanich. Only the #75 services the area.
Places people work in the region are further and further dispersed. Making transit work will be harder all the time.
The best thing that could be done would be focus all work/education/entertainment expansion in the region in the following area:
Blanshard - Finlayson - Burnside - Tillicum - Mackenzie.
By using this as the core, there is a easy access to it from almost everywhere. It makes a perfect new hub for all transit in the region. Highway 17 and Highway 1 feed right into the area.
Already this area has buses going out to all the Western Communities and Saanich Penisula. It has bus connections to Gordon Head, Esquimalt, James Bay, Oak Bay, Fernwood, Broadmead and more.
The redevelopment of the Town and Country mall is a good start, as is all the work at Selkirk water. But there has to be a lot more done in this area. This is where the major arena should have gone for this region. Ideally there should be a lot more office buildings constructed in this area and move government further out from the current downtown.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Traffic and Victoria
The Times Colonist running a series on traffic in the CRD this week.
After living in London and Vancouver, it is amusing to me think that people think that there are traffic issues in this city.
In London I worked just off of Oxford Street. Our office had about 50 staff. There were 2 parking spots for the whole company. You had to drive the car into an elevator to park it in the basement. At Elan Computing everyone commuted via public transit - everyone.
I also remember one very early morning having to drive my parents from North London to Heathrow. It was about 6 am in the morning and there was no traffic. It was amazing, the trip to the airport took 20 minutes instead of an hour to an hour and half.
The traffic in London was stunningly clogged. There was really no point in owning a car.
In Vancouver in the 1994/95 I spend some time working as a truck driver for a company. The traffic in the city is much less problematic than London, but still it had its moments.
Here in Victoria, I have seen almost nothing that I would call a traffic issue. Yes, there is a some backup along the number 1 during rush hour, but nothing very dramatic, nothing that takes any long time to get through. I do not see the issues of traffic here.
There are some changes that could be made to make things flow better.
1 - Make Mackenzie from #17 to #1 a freeway and make a proper freeway interchange at Mackenzie and #1
2 - look at how to deal with the traffic flow over the Bay Street bridge. Also look at the traffic flow along Craigflower
3 - Craigflower and Admirals - this needs help, but short of twinning the Old Island Highway and Admirals through to #1, I am not sure what one would do.
Really, all the issues are things people could live with.
After living in London and Vancouver, it is amusing to me think that people think that there are traffic issues in this city.
In London I worked just off of Oxford Street. Our office had about 50 staff. There were 2 parking spots for the whole company. You had to drive the car into an elevator to park it in the basement. At Elan Computing everyone commuted via public transit - everyone.
I also remember one very early morning having to drive my parents from North London to Heathrow. It was about 6 am in the morning and there was no traffic. It was amazing, the trip to the airport took 20 minutes instead of an hour to an hour and half.
The traffic in London was stunningly clogged. There was really no point in owning a car.
In Vancouver in the 1994/95 I spend some time working as a truck driver for a company. The traffic in the city is much less problematic than London, but still it had its moments.
Here in Victoria, I have seen almost nothing that I would call a traffic issue. Yes, there is a some backup along the number 1 during rush hour, but nothing very dramatic, nothing that takes any long time to get through. I do not see the issues of traffic here.
There are some changes that could be made to make things flow better.
1 - Make Mackenzie from #17 to #1 a freeway and make a proper freeway interchange at Mackenzie and #1
2 - look at how to deal with the traffic flow over the Bay Street bridge. Also look at the traffic flow along Craigflower
3 - Craigflower and Admirals - this needs help, but short of twinning the Old Island Highway and Admirals through to #1, I am not sure what one would do.
Really, all the issues are things people could live with.
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