Learn How to Create Vibrant Neighbourhoods

I would LOVE to go to this event, but I have a conflicting event that is effectively doing what people will be talking about at this event.....

Mobilizing Community Assets to Create Vibrant Neighbourhoods and a Caring City
A workshop with Jim Diers

Monday, March 2, 2009
7 p.m. – 9:30 p.m.
Council Chambers, Victoria City Hall
1 Centennial Square

Harnessing local capacity for people to become more involved in improving their neighbourhoods and dealing with local issues, be it street issues or planting of community gardens will be the focus of this workshop led by Jim Diers. Using examples of revitalization and community action from Seattle, Victoria and other communities, Jim Diers will demonstrate how communities can “take back their neighbourhoods” to create more caring cities and improve quality of life for all.

Jim Diers is the Director of University of Washington’s Seattle Community Partnerships Program and teaches courses in community development. He recently served on the Urban Policy Committee for Barack Obama’s campaign. He has a passion for getting people more involved in their community and in the decisions that affect their lives. He was the first director of Seattle’s Department of Neighborhoods. Recently he published From the Ground Up Community’s Role in Addressing Street Level Issues through the Canada West Foundation.

Jim Diers’ website is www.neighborpower.org.

Agenda
7 p.m.
Welcome by Mayor Dean Fortin and introduction of Jim Diers

7:10 p.m. – 8:15 p.m
Presentation by Jim Diers, followed by Q & A

8:15 p.m. – 8:30 p.m.
Tea/coffee break

8:30 p.m. – 9 p.m.
Small group discussions: Local residents sharing neighbourhood success stories.
(i.e. Cornerstone Project [Fernwood Neighbourhood Resource Group], Victoria West Visions Project, Fairfield matching projects)

9 p.m. – 9:15 p.m.
Wrap up discussion

9:15 p.m.
Thank you – JoAnne Youmans, President, Victoria West Community Association

free admission
Everyone Welcome
For further information call 250.361.0213

Corey Burger Blog and Bioswales

Corey Burger has a blog on local issues that I find impressive. He is putting a lot of thought into his postings. Definitely worth reading even if you do not agree with him.

Corey ran as a Green candidate for Oak Bay council in the fall.

One thing I am taking away from his blog today is information on bioswales. I must admit I had not really thought about them even though I have seen them in a few spots around town. The CRD has a whole page about them. Included is this picture of a street in Seattle - this is the sort of thing I would love to see local governments support this in our region.

The idea fits very well with the depaving concept that I personally believe needs to happen. Much too much of our urban environment is covered with impervious surfaces. There is a lot we could remove and benefit our city and environment.

Consistent regulations across this region

I have thought about the annoying issue that we have 13 local governments and 13 different sets of bylaws businesses need to deal with. I was talking about this in passing with Jim Legh on Tuesday night at a 3rd Douglas Baden-Powell dinner. I also come across this opinion piece from City Caucus and it spurred me to think about the issue.

In this region most of the municipal boundaries do not follow any logical geographic boundaries, but for almost all businesses this is a single region, a single economic unit.

For some businesses there is no problem in having 13 different local governments. For most retail businesses it is not issue, but for many other businesses there is a problem of having to deal with different rules in each municipality. In theory anyone in the construction trades should have a separate business license for each municipality they work in. They also need to deal with different processes for building inspections.

As just one example of the stupidity of 13 sets of rules, we have no consistency in this region when it comes to allowable signs for a business. There is no earthly reason why there is not one standard set of rules for signs. I could make a long list of how the bylaws locally are not consistent with each other when there is rational reason for them to be different.

All these rules that are applied within the arbitrary boundaries that the local governments cling to and this means we have a higher degree of red tape locally than a single local government. This red tape means that business has extra costs that offer no benefits to anyone and simply make it that much harder to be successful. I have no idea what the cost has been to the region, but if it costs on average each business person one extra hour a year, that is a loss in the range of $5 000 000 in productivity annually.

As a starting point, I would like to see Saanich and Victoria harmonize all bylaws that relate to business. A business license in one should cover both municipalities. Ultimately I would love to see the building inspection done by one unified office for both local governments to the same standards.

James Bay and the Water

James Bay is a peninsula, but I am amazed how disconnected the community is from the water.

On the north side of James Bay the neighbourhood is disconnected from the water by all of the hotels in the area. There is no connectivity between Menzies and Superior and the water to the north. Ideally a linear park connecting the downtown James Bay with the inner harbour would build that connectivity.

Even if there was a connection, the Inner Harbour does not have a complete walking route in place. The Inner Harbour does have the harbour ferries, but I do not see them as being connected to James Bay. It is James Bay that could actually have a use for them for getting to and from work in Esquimalt.

To the west of James Bay there are the remains of Victoria's industrial harbour. Acres of pavement at Ogden Point are being considered for redevelopment by the Greater Victoria Harbour Board. The site is still a very good dock facility, unfortunately it is located in an area that is not really useful for industrial purposes. Imagine have a container crane at the site. The truck traffic into the area would not fit with the type of streets leading into the area.

I believe we need a working harbour in Victoria. We need docks that can accommodate freighters and we need the ability to load and unload containers. James Bay is no longer a location that would work for this, but there should be something within the community to celebrate this heritage.

The breakwater is a wonderful walk that I have done many a time. It is a regional jewel the people of James Bay are lucky to have.

On the south side of the James Bay there is Dallas Road and the seawall there. I noted earlier that I felt that the neighbourhood is not well connected to this area. Some people disagreed. I still think this holds.

Dallas Road itself is a physical and visual barrier to the shore, the pavement of the road and parking is about 60 feet wide. There are few visual cues in James Bay that the water is nearby. In part this is the orientation of the community, but is was further impacted by the larger buildings that were allowed on Dallas Road. If you want to get an idea of why I think this is a problem, compare this part of Dallas Road to the area around Cloverpoint.

The only real use of the water I see in the James Bay area is the diving at the breakwater and the marina at fisherman's wharf. I get no sense of any water based recreation in the area. I know the area is not ideal for it, but still it feels like there should be something.

CRD Water

I wonder why the CRD has not constructed a power plant at the Sooke Resovoir and make electrical power from the water going through the dam?

I wonder why we do not have a small turbine at the end of Beaver lake at the dam before the water goes down into Colquitz Creek?

We have water in both locations already dammed and stored. We have the water flowing downhill, why is it not doing some work for all of us? The power produced at Beaver Lake would be a very small amount, but even if one could get 500 KWh, this would produce an income of about $190 000 a year from green power sales. The Sooke resevoir has the potential of producing a lot more power than that.

So what possible rational reason is there for why we are not doing this right now?

South Skirt Mountain

Langford held their public consultation into this development and if the TC reports are anything to go by, it was not a pleasant evening. I am not sure why Stu Young is so combative with people, he should be able to relax given the very strong mandate he received in November. His team comfortably defeated the Langford team. His team's win is a strong endorsement of more developments like the South Skirt Mountain one.

On the surface, I think that the development is a very good one for that location, but I have some issues to raise.

1) Does everything in Langford really need to be that adversarial?

2) Is this really where we need to build more houses? The core of the region has more than enough space to absorb the numbers but in general is not taking the responsibility for housing more people, the worst culprit being Oak Bay.

3) Can this sort of development realistically go ahead without having the Mackenzie interchange? That location is the biggest choke point in the region as almost all the Westshore traffic is funnelled through this one intersection before splitting into two major streams, one to downtown and out towards UVic.

James Bay - The High Rises

The 1970s were not kind to James Bay. There were numerous tall apartment buildings constructed during that era - great for density, but they are not great in building community and neighbourhood.

If you look at Orchard House and Robert House - I know we would prefer not to - the building loom over everything around them. Not only do they loom, they are surrounded by dead green space. Each tall building has been constructed as an island in the middle of a green patch. This green space is utterly dead and without community life.

Just behind South Park school there is wonderful set of heritage houses, problem is that they have Orchard House looming over them completely ruining any sense of scale of the buildings.

The green spaces around these buildings can take up to several acres of land. No one sits on these lawns, there are no playgrounds or trees, there are no playing fields. They simply exist to take space. This land needs to be made into real community parks for the people of James Bay, maybe even allotment gardens.

The ground floors of these huge buildings are not connected to the street. The building offers nothing to the neighbourhood. I am not sure how one would retrofit these buildings and fix this problem, but some sort of community use of retail use would bring the space alive. Offices could also be a good use for the first couple of floors, their daytime use would bring life to the buildings and area during mid day when they can be very quiet and forlorne.

Over between Michigan and Simcoe and Menzies and Oswego, there are a series of high rises. Between them them they have 8.5 acres in dead green space and paved parking. 3.7 acres of this is contigous with Irving Park. If one could work on a parkcade in the area for the people that live there, though with some space for people shopping in James Bay, and allow for a lot more land to be used as park in the centre of James Bay. You could make it function as the town square of James Bay and hold the market there.

We can compare these 1970s buildings to Shoal Point you can see how much better use the land use. Shoal Point is not dead on the ground level and is not surrounded by this sterile grass area. It has the lower floors dedicated to retail and offices. It also has a lower height than the buildings from the 1970s.

Skiing and Victoria

This last weekend I was up at Mount Washington with the Scouts. It reminded me how much I love to ski and how far Victoria is from a ski hill.

In my teens I earned money so that I could go skiing. I would ski about twice a week from late November through to early May, about 50 times in a season. All of this came to an abrupt end when I went to UVic for university. The end happened in part because I could no longer afford it, but more because Victoria is so far from any skiing and lacks much of a skiing culture.

Living in Tsawwassen, I had seven ski hills within a two hour drive. From Victoria there was only Mount Arrowsmith and I could not find anyone in the 1980s willing to make the trek up the road there.

Vancouver Island has a population of 730 000 people. We have two ski hills, Mount Washington and Mount Cain near Woss. Mount Cain is four and half hours from Victoria.

The Okanagan/Thompson region has about 400 000 total population and has nine ski hills! More if you look to the Kootenaies or Manning Park.

We have some suitable mountains on the south end of Vancouver Island for a ski hill. Realistically a ski hill would have to have a base elevation of over 1100 meters, ideally 1250 on the south end of the island. I good hill needs a minimum of 300 to 400 meters of vertical. Using these numbers, here are some locations I think would work:

First off there is Mount Arrowsmith, a former ski area. It has a higher elevation than Mount Washington and looks to have enough vertical.

Secondly, Mount Whymper on the Chemainus river has an elevation of 1541 meters. Mount Landale on the south side of the river is slightly lower, but looks like it has the location for a ski hill.

Third there is Marion Creek off of Hwy 19 just past Sutton Pass on the way to the Ucluelet and Tofino. The valley has enough elevation on the peaks.

Fourth would be Mount Klitsa which is just south of the western end of Sproat Lake. Both these last two locations suffer from not being close to at least 100 000 people.

On the north eastern edge of the Alberni Valley there is Mount Apps which is used for cross country. Slightly to the south is Mount Joan peaking at just over 1600 meters, though the I am not sure terrain works. It might better terrain coming from the east side via Roaring Creek.

There are some interesting areas near Tahsis and Gold River, but both are rather remote for the vast majority of people to get to. The upper end of the Conuma River looks very promising, but this is not close to anyone.

Between Mount Washington and Strathcona park there is Alexandra Peak and Mount Adrian. The southwest slope of Alexandra Peak looks like very good terrain. Access would be from the Cranberry junction on the Island highway. Proximity to Mount Washington would be a problem.

Forbidden Plateau is in this area and was a ski hill. The hill closed and the buildings burned. Could someone make a go of it now?

Mount Cain sits at the edge of Schoen Lake park and in the heart of some decent hieght mountains in the centre of the island. The area has a huge potential for a skiing area much bigger than it is, the problem is that we are getting to far from the skiing public.

In the end, I would love to see at least one ski hill developed close to Port Alberni and one near Mount Landale on the Chemainus. There is the interest on the island to sustain them as ski hills.

Victoria Seals

So, is anyone going to go out and see the Victoria Seals?

Their season starts on the road. Their first home game is May 29th at Royal Athletic Park versus Long Beach.

The price for the tickets is bit steep in my opinion. They run from $12 to $16 and no discount for kids unless they are under 6. If I go with my family, this will run us $60 to $80 before we pay for any drinks or hotdogs. I figure we will be lucky to get away with paying $100 for an afternoon of minor, minor league baseball.

The Golden Baseball League is an independent league so does not formally fit into the classification of AAA, AA or A, but based on what I see, it looks like single A.

I think that the admission prices are high, they should be realistic in the first season and draw in some fans to watch. No fans and there will be no team in the long term.

I also can not see anything about any broadcasting of the games. All teams should be providing a live streaming play by play on the internet for all games home and away. You need to build a connection to the team and that means letting us folks at home being able to follow the games and the teams.

I will try to get to a game early in the season just for the fun of sitting in the stands and bullshitting with some friends. I also figure I need to do it early in the season because there is no guarantee that the team will make it through the season

James Bay - the start

I spent a couple of afternoons in James Bay looking around. From my first impressions what I saw.

The 60s and 70s were not kind to the area, not only are the buildings tall, they are ugly and do not connect to the street level.

A lot of people are out and walking, much more so than most other neighbourhoods in the city.

The neighbourhood is isolated from the rest of the city - that is obvious - but it is also isolated from the water. On the north side James Bay is hemmed in by hotels, on the west side by Ogden Point and on the south side by Dallas road and the seawall. The neighbourhood focuses people into the centre and not towards the water.

There is a reasonable amount of local shopping for the basics, but for many things you would have to go further afield. There is no place shop for clothes, there is really not enough retail to allow people to stay within walking distance.

James Bay also has no local library, though the downtown Victoria branch is not that far.

For school, as soon as kids are in grade six they have to travel 3km to get to Central Middle School and in grade nine close to 4 km to get to Vic High. This is a reflection of the fact that James Bay is separated from the rest of the city.

For seniors there do seem to the services and support people need in the neighbourhood.

I am reading through some of the online resources for the neighbourhood. There is a good discussion at Vibrant Victoria and the James Bay Beacon is also a good online source

Victoria Voter's League

I got a note on facebook today from Simon Nattrass about the next meeting of the Victoria Voter's League

Hi everyone! The next VVL meeting will be at 620 View St, office 211 at 5:00. We are still looking for a permanent location, but I'll try to keep everyone updated at least a week ahead.

Ciao,
Simon

James Bay - first neighbourhood in the series

Due to events in my life I have been behind in what I was planning to do with a review of the neighbourhoods in this city. I am now ready to start this project, the first area will be the first neighbourhood in Victoria - James Bay.

I am interested in your thoughts, ideas, pictures and anything ekes about the area. You can contact me at Bernard@shama.ca or through facebook or twitter.

I spent a couple of afternoons in January in James Bay looking at the lay of the neighbourhood.

I expect two post stuff over the next two weeks.

After James Bay, I think I will try Gordon Head, or somewhere else?

International Island Games

I think Vancouver Island should should the International Island Games Association. This year they are being held on the Aland Islands between Sweden and Finland.

I would like to see this because I believe that we need celebrate the island nature of this place we line on. We really do not connect with the idea of this being an Island except for complaining about the ferries.

BC STV Training Workshop Sat Feb 14th

EVENT: STV Training workshop
TIME: Saturday Feb. 14, 10 am to noon
PLACE: Rm A307, Clearihue Bldg., U.Vic.

Dear STV Supporters:

Now that many of you have signed up for a STV Action Team, you will want more detailed information about STV and how to respond to questions than you may yet have available.

This is a basic-information workshop designed to provide information for people wearing STV buttons who are asked what STV is about, and for people canvassing door-to-door. In other words, it's a workshop for just about anybody who is not totally comfortable with answering questions about STV.

There will be more detailed workshops for those who may want to write letters or articles about STV, or who may be asked to speak about STV at a public event later, but this workshop could be a good grounding if you're not totally familar with the topic.

Wendy Bergerud, President of the Victoria Branch of Fair Viting BC, will tell us how she would answer questions from the public, and ask for experiences of others who are attending the worklshop. After 40 minutes or so, we'll break into smaller groups and do some role-playing so that at least some of us will have an opportunity to hone our STV answering-skills.

If you've any questions, please write to philmar@islandnet.com

Hope to see you on Saturday!

Philip Symons, Organizer
Capital Regional District

An Online Place to discuss the Provincial Election Locally

Vibrant Victoria is a great resource to discuss issues of life and development in the Greater Victoria area.

There are also a series to topics started in the forum to discuss the seven local ridings in the up coming provincial election. Yes, I am on the one that started the topics.

Quick Transit Thoughts

The other day I was in Vancouver and used the bus to get into to town. From the ferry I caught the 620 as far as Airport Station - a relatively quick 30 minutes. There I changed to the 98 B line which had me downtown 25 minutes later. I am impressed with the speed that these express bus routes work, I was also impressed with the number of people riding on the buses, they were full mid day.

I like the fact that we now have the same sort of thing here in Victoria with the number 70 to the ferry, but we need more of this in the region. We need our own B lines or bus rapid transit.

UVic is a major regional destination for transit and I think should be considered for a Bus Rapid Transit route, limited stops along the way and quick on and off for passengers. In the core I could see a circle route using something similar to the the #26 route, then the #6 route from Esquimalt to Downtown and from there Fort to Foul Bay and up to UVic or some other route that makes sense. The route would run in both directions and the bus stops could have the sort of information signs that the B Lines have in Vancouver.

How far apart for the bus stops? UVic, University Heights, Mackenzie and Quadra, Town and Country, Tillicum should give you a sense of the spacing that would make sense to me.

Many of the buses to and from UVic are already operating at their limits, a bus rapdi transit to UVic would allow more people to be moved to UVic with the same number of buses as there are at the moment and do so faster. The higher efficiency would also mean a higher cost recovery for the system.

I would also link all minor lights to a GIS that tracks buses and extend or change a light to improve movement for the buses. A few minutes improvement over an hour for a bus is a an important efficiency for transit locally. An average five minute saving per hour would increase the system capacity by 8%, this is especially important during the morning and afternoon peak hours. Even a 3 minute per hour saving per bus would increase capacity by 5%. Once again, more people moved per hour without more resources means a higher cost recovery for the network and from this more resources for the system.

The federal and provincial governments are willing to put money into transit this year. Developing a bus rapid transit system and implementing it could be done very quickly and make use of the money available.

My fear is that the love of rail based transit and the desire for so many people to see it in this region will stop us from doing the bland nuts and bolts improvement transit could use in this region.

We Need to Change the Voting System in BC!

EVENT: STV action meeting for everyone
WHEN: Wed. Feb. 11th, 7 pm
WHERE: Rm A207 Clearihue Bldg., U. Vic.


I have been setting up Action Teams, as some of you are aware, and now I'm providing an opportunity for everyone interested in promoting STV to join an Action Team.

Teams will perfom such actions as writing articles and letters, organizing events, campaigning door-to-door, distributing literature at events, putting up lawn signs, phoning, etc (see attachment). At this meeting, there will be tables where you can sign up for whatever it is you would like to do. Most actions already have a core group; this is an attempt to expand the teams and ensure that any one who wants to can join in.

The Agenda: I will give a brief (15-20 min) presentation about the different actions so that you have an idea what is to be done. You can then move to any of the action tables and sign up. The meeting is not expected to be more than about an hour long (unless you wish to do some planning while you are together).

This meeting will give you an opportunity to meet others on the team, discuss strategy, and how you will go about your actions. I will be looking for a volunteer contact-person from each team. I do not intend to micro-manage each activity, but will be available to help any team requesting assistance, or will provide someone else if I can't be of help myself. My job will be to see that the teams are working as desired and report progress to the Fair Voting BC Victoria Branch Executive.

Please attend this meeting if at all possible if you wish to help promote STV in the Capital Regional District. If you are unable to attend but wish to help, please send an e-mail to me at philmar@islandnet.com or call me at 250 592-6484 (I can be difficult to reach, but mornings are best) and tell me what activity you are interested in (see attached list of actions) if you haven't already done so. I will then put you in touch with the appropriate contact person.

There will be training sessions for people needing to know how to promote STV--and that's probably all of us! Stay tuned to learn about more about training sessions!

Let's get going!

Philip Symons
Regional Organizer for the Capital Regional District/South Island
philmar@islandnet.com

Public Art

There is a new website out there called Landmarks: Public Art in the Capital Region.

At the moment it only covers Saanich, Victoria and Esquimalt, but it has a good interface for searching, has pictures of all the works and a lot of details about the work.

A search shows 68 works in Victoria, 18 in Saanich and only 4 in Esquimalt. I did not see any works from UVic or Camuson - I know there are works at both. There was also nothing from CFB Esquimalt, though I have no idea if there is anything on the base.

Here is an example of what is in the page about an artwork.

stone poem for Rutledge by Tina Farmilo

stone poem for Rutledge by Tina Farmilo

Details

Artwork Type	Water Feature
Medium	Granite stones sandblasted with poetic inscriptions
Unveiled date	January, 2006
Dimensions	Variable
Reference #	10
Site	Rutledge Park, Intersection of Cloverdale and Inverness. Victoria BC

Art Category	Civic Public Art
Selection Process	Civic: By Jury - Open Competition
Municipality/Neighbourhood	Saanich: Core

Description

Artwork Description

Eight granite stones placed in various locations within Rutledge Park. Each contains a word poem inscribed and sandblasted into the surface. Sizes and shapes vary.

About Tina Farmilo

Dates	Canadian
Artist Bio	Tina Farmilo is an interdisciplinary artist who's work is rooted in issues of community, place and history. Tina loves storytelling of every kind, and has a career as an artist, writer, educator and community animateur.
Artist Resume	Interdisciplinary Studies, Emily Carr College of Art & Design, Vancouver, British Columbia, 1983

MetroCascade - Victoria Blog Aggregator - Some thoughts about new media locally

MetroCascade is a way for you to check out what is happening with a number of blogs in the Victoria area, though I wonder about their content choices as they are including some of my stuff, go figure.

I am also trying out this Twitter thing - I am on there as bern99. The mother of my first three boys, Catherine Novak is the current Victoria Twitter Queen. She can tell you more than you want to know about new media communications and marketing.

I use Facebook, but do not use My Space or Linkln. I am not sure the social networking sites are as great as they could be. Or as useful.

One site that still kicks ass on almost all new media is the Vibrant Victoria discussion forum. It is the best place I have come across about for discussion about the future of this city.

Finally, I have recently discovered Google Calendar and I am in love with how it works. We have calendars for Sheila, myself, the house, Daniel, Ben and 3rd Douglas Scouts. The boys share their calendars with their mother. I also managed to sync it with my iPhone, now to get on the other phones in the family

Baden Powell Dance and Silent Auction in Support of Scout House

I am involved with the 3rd Douglas Scout Group here in Victoria and believe this is the single best program out there for kids.

Scouting is a great program from youth. It gets youth out into the outdoors, it teaches them leadership, responsibility, and good citizenship. They learn the skills that will allow them to make a success of their lives.

Scouting needs more support from the public and this fundraiser is a good chance for you to show your support and have a good time.

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 28, 7:30-Midnight
ESQUIMALT LEGION, Admirals & Esquimalt Rd
TICKETS: $10 each -includes appies, good music, great company (Free canoes for a day at Camp Barnard to the group that sells the most tickets!!)

The list of great auction items is growing daily and will soon be posted on the website. Stay tuned for weekly updates. The most exciting and unique item on the list to date is a 19", 21 speed mountain bike in World Scout colours with great decaling donated by Mike Scott, past National Commissioner for Scouts Canada. Mike used it in his role as Canadian Contingent leader at the 2007 World Jamboree. It is truly one of a kind and you can see it at Scout House now. We will be spreading the word beyond Victoria about this great Scouting collectible. Take a look next time you are at Scout House!

What if every group was represented at this event??? Wouldn't that be fun!

Organized by 30th Canadian BP Guild; all proceeds to Scout House restoration.

Silent Auction Items:

Clothing:

1. Tilley Hat - Adventure Clothing
   
2. Shirt-XL-BC - BC Tourism
   
3. Zip Hoodie-6X-BC - BC Tourism
   
4. T-Shirt-XL-BC - BC Tourism
   
5. T-Shirt-L-BC - BC Tourism
   
6. Ladies T-Shirt Sm - BC Tourism
   
7. Ladies Vest-Lg-BC - BC Tourism
   
8. Bear Paw Mittens - BC Tourism
   
9. Child's T-Shirt-4-BC - BC Tourism
   
10. Campfire Blanket-1 of a kind - Kathy Gauthier
    
11. 59Fifty Ball Cap - SG Power
    
12. Toque - SG Power
    
13. Grey Hoodie Adult-Med - TeamWorks
    

Groceries/Consumables:

1. Gift Basket - 3rd Arbutus
   
2. 7x14 European Cream Cake - Art's Bakery
   
3. $25 Gift certificate x 2 - Black Tie Wines
   
4. Gift Certificate - Country Grocer, Royal Oak
   
5. Peisporter Wine Kit - Hamilton Hops & Grapes
   
6. Gift Certificate - Market on Yates
   
7. Gift Basket - Peninsula Co-op
   
8. Gift Certificate - Planet Organic
   
9. Gift Certificate - Safeway-Tillicum
   
10. Basket of Teas - Special Teas
    
11. Soap Basket - Sue Fraser
    
12. Gift Basket - Thrifty Foods, Saanich Centre
    
13. Gift Basket - Victorian Epicure Inc.
    

For the Home & Garden:

1. Elec. Grass Trimmer - A&C Equipment
   
2. Gift Certificate - Art Knapp Plantland
   
3. Posters - Art World
   
4. $25 Gift certificate x 2 - Black Tie Wines
   
5. Pair of 4' Cedar Planters - Cook Street Do-It Centre
   
6. Extinguisher - Crest Fire
   
7. Table lamp - Dodds Furniture
   
8. Loppers& Water Gun - Garden Works-Blenkinsop
   
9. Gift Certificate - Heirloom Linens-Broadmead
   
10. Tinkerbell lamp - Home Hardware-Oak Bay
    
11. 8 x 9.5 Area Rug - Hourigan's Carpets
    
12. Gift Certificate - Illuminations Lighting
    
13. Picnic tote - Industrial Plastics
    
14. Harley Davidson Clock - Industrial Plastics
    
15. 6 Placemats - Jim Legh
    
16. Cooking Utensils & Hanger - Jim Legh
    
17. Aqua Cam-Digital - Jim Legh
    
18. Teapot & Warmer - Jim Legh
    
19. Area Rug - Jordan's Carpets
    
20. Book-Birding Basics - Munroe Books
    
21. Smoke/Fire Alarm & 10yr battery - Pacific Coast Fire Extinguishers
    
22. Cedar bench with 2 planters - Paul Johnson
    
23. Cedar Sea Locker - Paul Johnson
    
24. Fish Bowl & Accessories - Pets West-Broadmead
    
25. Security System x 2 - Priority 1 Computers
    
26. 2 Adult museum passes - Royal BC Museum
    
27. 6 Crystal Wine Glasses - Russell Foods
    
28. Tour & Tasting Gift Cert - Sea Cider Farm & Ciderhouse
    
29. Gift Certificate - Sooke Home Hardware
    
30. MultiTool w.case - Vic Davies Architects
    
31. 4 hours labour - Willy Burrows
    
32. 2 Framed photos - Mike Bingley
    

Sports, Outdoors, Travel:

1. Tune-up Certificate x 2 - Fairfield Bicycle Shop
   
2. 3 Mo Pass, 8-14 yr. Old - Island Mixed Martial Arts
   
3. 3 Mo Pass, 15-17 yr. old - Island Mixed Martial Arts
   
4. Tugboat Tour for 6 w. lunch - Marine Forces Pacific
   
5. WJ 19" 21 sp. WJ Mountain Bike - Mike Scott
   
6. 1-day kayak rental - Ocean River Sports
   
7. Hydration Pack - Russ Hays Cycle
   
8. 25 Punch Card, towel & bottle - Saanich Parks & Rec
   
9. Planisphere - Science Works
   
10. Accomodation-2 nights for 4 - Strathcona Park Lodge
    
11. 4 Tickets E&N-Vic/Comox - Via Rail
    
12. Harbour Tour for 2 - Victoria Harbour Ferries
    
13. Campsite-2 nights - We Wai Kai Campsite, Quadra Is.
    
14. Binoculars-7x50 Water Resistant - West Marine
    

Restaurants:

1. Gift Certificate $25 x 2 - 5th Street Bar & Grill
   
2. Gift Certificate - ABC Family Restaurant
   
3. Gift Certificate - Brady's Fish & Chips-Burnside
   
4. $20 Gift Certificate x 2 - Gorge Point Pub
   
5. Gift Certificate - Stone Pipe Grill
   

Entertainment, Leisure:

1. Tickets - Atomique Productions
   
2. 4 Admissions - Craigdarroch Castle
   
3. UNO Fest-2 Passes - Intrepid Theatre
   
4. 2 tickets-"Isn't it Romantic" - Langham Court Theatre
   
5. 3-Hour Trip for Two - Prince of Whales Whale Watching
   
6. Vineyard Tour for 10 w. tasting - Rocky Creek Winery
   
7. Spa Pedicure - Ronald Grant Urban Spa
   
8. 4 tickets - Salmon Kings
   
9. Flying Lesson - Victoria Flying Club
   
10. Two concert tickets - Victoria Symphony
    

…and also:

1. Two Wills & Power of Attorney - J. Legh, Stevenson, Luchies & Legh
   
2. 5' Papier mache crocodile - Penny Hill
   
3. 1 mo. Life Coaching - Rebecca Hass, Pacific Opera
   
4. Voice Lessons-1 hour - Rebecca Hass, Pacific Opera
   

New rules for running for Victoria City council

I am glad to see that the council has chosen to make it a bit harder for people to get onto the ballot. The small deposit would not be a hardship for anyone seriously running for office since you have to raise about $5000 to $10 000 to have reasonable chance of getting elected.

The number of signatures is too low in my opinion. The signature number should be in the range of 500 to 1000. If you are serious about running for election and winning, you need a team of people working with you and a higher number of signatures is completely realistic.

The new rules may be enough to make the number of candidates in the City of Victoria closer to a more realistic number for people to have a chance to make a well informed decision. Having in excess of 30 candidates means even the most diligent people have little chance of actually being able to learn about all the people running.

Having people on the ballot that have no intention of trying to get elected does no one any favours. Putting a barrier to getting on the ballot that requires some work is completely reasonable. If you can not overcome this first test of getting elected, then you have lost the election.

Personally I would like to see the city move to an election by STV. Raise the number of councilors to ten and group them in two five member STV ridings or wards. The current system of vote for up to eight and the top finishers win is the worst electoral system out there. It makes it hard for new people to get elected and favours incumbents unless it has political parties like in Vancouver. Once you have parties, you end up typically throughing out almost everyone from one election to the next.

To do this, the provincial government would have to change the law for local governments to allow them to control their own electoral process.

Down at Dockside Green

I was down there today to try out this new bakery and took a few quick pics.
This new bakey is very good, though pricey. I can see people coming from across the city to buy here, but I wonder how the parking will dealt with. It is not obvious if there will be enough parking.

Construction is moving along down below Tyee now. The Dockside Green wastewater treatment plant seems to be done. Now we have a location in Victoria that is pumping sewage into the ocean.

Kirk Hall development voted down

You can find a lot of details on the Kirk Hall development here.

I can understand the reasons for it being turned down, but I am disappointed because I liked the look of the development.

Here is the CFAX piece on it

HERITAGE CHURCH’S PLAN FOR OFFICE TOWER DENIED

Feb 5, 2009

A COMMITTEE OF VICTORIA CITY COUNCIL TODAY KILLED A PROPOSED OFFICE TOWER ON A COURTNEY STREET PROPERTY OWNED BY ST. ANDREW'S CHURCH.

THE DECISION HAS THE CONGREGATION WONDERING HOW TO FUND UPGRADES TO THE HERITAGE CHURCH AT THE CORNER OF DOUGLAS AND BROUGHTON STREET.

MANY OF THOSE CONGREGATION MEMBERS, WHO HAD PACKED THE COUNCIL CHAMBER, LEFT IN FRUSTRATION AS ALL BUT ONE COUNCILOR VOTED NOT TO SEND A REZONING APPLICATION TO ALLOW A NINE-STORY TOWER TO PUBLIC HEARING.

THE TOWER WAS PROPOSED FOR THE SITE OF KIRK HALL, A BUILDING OWNED BY THE CHURCH NEXT TO ST. ANDREWS.

COUNCILORS FELT THE NINE STORIES WAS TOO FAR ABOVE WHAT'S ALLOWED IN THE CITY'S "OLD TOWN" DISTRICT.

BUT A SPOKESPERSON FOR THE CONGREGATION STRESSED THEY NEED THE DEVELOPMENT TO FUND UPGRADES TO THE CHURCH.

THEY ALSO WARNED COUNCILORS THAT, IF THEIR PROPOSAL GOT DECLINED, THEY DON'T HAVE THE MEANS TO COME BACK WITH A NEW ONE.

Some invasive species in this region

Over this fall the 3rd Douglas Scouts have been working on a restoration project at Point Ellice House. The youth have been working with Jody of the CRD, and other voluteer to remove English Ivy as part of the Gorge Waterway Iniative. They have helped remove about 11.5 tonnes from the shoreline and will be helping to plant native species.

One of my goals as a Scout leader is to instill a sense of community service, environmental stewardship, and personal responsibility into boys aged 10 to 15 years old. I am getting the boys to give up part of their weekend to come and work on a project that will help the whole community and the environment. Feel free to help our work with the youth by making a donation to 3rd Douglas - 505 Marigold Rd V8Z 4R3. Donations are tax decductible.

It is amazing how much damage this ivy is doing through out the region and how hard it is to remove. As an example, while I was driving along Tattersal, I looked down Cloverdale Creek and saw that the trees are being completely chocked by the ivy. You can also see the problem at Knockan Hill Park and in Mount Doug - there are work parties in Mount Doug this month, click on their events link.

I think that there has to be serious consideration given to using Roundup to deal with the problem because so few people are willing the personal responsibility and initiative and get involved with restoration projects. I know a lot of people hate Monsanto and are opposed to using any sort of herbicide, but Roundup is not at all dangerous.

English Ivy is not the only invasive species in the region, another problem is broom, it destroys a lot of ecosystems. Here is the name and bio of the man that brought it here, I think we should hold some sort of Guy Fawkes night thing for him.

Back in the 1990s the Mount Tolmie Conservation Association put a lot of effort into removing broom from the hill. Broom is particullary bad for the Garry Oak meadows. The work needs to be continually redone. Mount Tolmie is just one of 13 Garry Oak restoration sites in Saanich.

Amalgamation

The TC had an editorial in favour of amalgamating the local governments. There was also a letter from John Hutchinson arguing for amalgamation.

Both are fine sentiments and point out very good reasons for the amalgamation of our local governments, problem is that there is no serious discussion happening from any local government on the issue.

What is needed is a local citizen lead initiative to reorganize our local governance. There have been some small attempts to do this in the past, but nothing serious has happened. Some of the attempts have looked too partisan for many people, others have simply not gotten off of the ground.

If I had a lot of spare time, I would spearhead something, but with four kids, lots of work, and community volunteering, there is no time left for me to take this on.

Any volunteers?

More on Real Estate Values

The indications of the last four months point to the most serious melt-down in the real estate market in this region since at least the 1960s, I have no access to good data from back then so I can not sure. The volume of sales is dramatically down - not just a bit.

If the last four months are the trend, sales volumes in this region will be comparable to ones in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Though there are some big differences, our population is 50% larger than that era. This means it is REALLY bad out there.

The current supply of units on the market is three times as large as the number of units that will sell in the next three months. For your house to sell, you will have to drop your price dramatically to get it to move, otherwise you are competing with a lot of houses that are also not selling. This assumes no new units come onto the market in the next three months.

Even if the Active Listings were to fall to 2500 (currently about 3700), there would still be more than twice as many units on the market as what will sell.

So why will sales volumes continue to be low? There are a lot of people no longer in the market.

The first group that is out of the market are the people that do not need to move at all. The ones that would be willing to use their equity to move up in the market. The problem is that with the fall in the prices the equity people hold is too small to justify doing this. An average loss of $75 000 in equity in the last year will make it very hard for a lot of people to sell and buy something bigger and better. Until the market is clearly stable, this segment of buying public will be gone.

The second group that is gone from the market are the flippers and speculators. No amount of fixing and sprucing up will increase a price when the market is falling each and every month. Most flippers made money from the rising market and not from the improvements they made to the houses.

The condo market is badly hit by the loss of the speculative buyers being gone as many units were purchased before the building was built. In BC almost no condo developments go ahead unless the building is sold before construction. Speculators and flippers will not be back until it becomes clear that the market is going up by more than 10% a year. This means they will be out of the market for some time.

The third group that is no longer in the market here are the out of town people - Americans and Eastern Canadians. They were never a large part in of themselves as most of them were speculators, but there was a decent set of them boosting the market locally. They are now gone and likely to be gone for at least five years and maybe for ten.

The fourth group that is gone from the market are the first time buyers. They have effectively been out of the market for more than a year already. Back in 2004 to 2006 many first time buyers entered the market out of a panic that otherwise they would not be able to get into the market. In 2007 there were less of them and in 2008 they dried up. First time buyers are the lubrication of the market, without them a crash has to happen. They are the first ones that will return to the market, but only if the prices justify it.

For a 30 year old couple earning a combined gross income of $80 000, they would realistically be looking for a house for $300 000. There is still almost nothing in the market even close to this. When prices come low enough for there to be lot of choice at this level, you will see first time buyers come back into the market.

For the local market to stop falling, you need to see several thousand first time buyers come into the market. This means we need to see the average price drop to around $350 000 or lower. The market will need to fall to the price levels seen in about 2003 or 2004.

We have one more problem in the local market, a lot of first time buyers in the last four years bought condos. For most them the goal was to get on the property ladder and trade up to a house but this will not happen. These people are now trapped in their condos because of their negative equity. The very dramatic drop in condos will effect the bottom of the house market and drive down prices even further.

Some interesting real estate links and some of the better agents:
House Hunt Victoria
Victoria Housing and Real Estate Market Blog
Victoria Stats and Trends
Cheap Realty

Andrew Holenchuk
Tim Ayres
Karen Scott

May 12, 2009 Election in this Region

I will be posting links to all the candidate running in each of the seven ridings in the area. You will find the links on park way down the page on the right hand side.

Falling housing prices and bankruptcies

We are entering an era in which we may see a lot of personal bankruptcies because people owe more for their homes than they could sell them for.

Someone that bought a house in Victoria in mid 2007 for $575 000 with 20% down and a 25 year mortgage will now owe about $450 000 on this house. Let us say you sell that house for $500 000, a reasonable amount in the current market. The cost of selling the house will take about $30 000 out of your pocket leaving you with $470 000 to pay off the $450 000 mortgage.

Anyone that bought a house or condo in the last three years with much less than 25% down is now realistically looking at a house that is less than their mortgage. This means a large number of people.

Let us say you bought the same house above but only had 10%, you would still be owing about $520 000 on a house you could only net $470 000 on. If you have to sell, you will be left owing $50 000 to the bank. Realistically you will be forced into bankruptcy.

If you got into a condo in the summer of 2006 for $250 000 with 5% as a first time buyer, you are really screwed. Odds are your unit will now only sell for $220 000 netting you about $205 000. You will still owe about $27 000. Many condo buyers had low equity mortgages because they were first time buyers.

The market is going to see houses coming onto the market that are bankruptcy sales. These sales will dampen the rest of the market if they become commonplace. Condo bankruptcies will be the biggest tranche.

Real Estate Doom and Gloom in Victoria

Each month the Victoria Real Estate Board releases data on sales in the area. I have just been looking at the data for January 2009 and it looks really, really bad. I think we can not officially say that the Victoria real estate market is the worst that it has ever been.

People involved with real estate are professional optimists. Everyone from the agents through to the home inspectors to the mortgage specialists and even CHMC is pretending we are not in our worst market. They can not admit how bad it is.

You can also see more stats at this page. People should be concerned.

Quickly looking at the headline numbers, only 138 houses,62 condos and 36 townhouses or mobiles sold in January. That is only 236 sales. In 2006, 07 and 08 the numbers were 440, 383 and 409 respectively. Traditionally January is the second worst month of the year for sales, December being the worst, but the numbers from last month indicate a crash is underway. January, like October to December already showed, is more than 40% off of where sales have been in last years at the same time of the year.

My prediction is that we will see something in the order of 4200 housing units sell over 2009. This is a volume that is comparable to sales levels in the late 1970s.

This is further complicated by too many houses coming onto the market. January saw five times a many units come onto the market as sold. That is the worst ratio we have seen in years, likely decades. The next worst was in Oct of 2008 at just four units on to the market for each one that sold, Sept 2008 and Nov 2008 saw ratios of over three to one.

So what does this fall in sales mean and large number of houses on the market mean? Much lower prices. The prices in Greater Victoria have a lot farther to fall.

Condo prices are at the same level they were in the fall of 2005. If you bought a condo at anytime after August of 2005 odds are the net worth of your unit is less than when you bought. About 7000 condos changed hands in that time, almost all of those transactions involves someone that is not financially worse off for buying. This assumes that prices will not fall further. I expect the average condo price to fall below $200 000 by the end of 2009.

In general houses are doing better, but the latest averages mean only people that bought before the early spring of 2006 are likely to have seen an increase in value of their house. Though I see them also falling further during 2009. I see the prices falling to around $400 000 be the end of 2009, though I would not not bet against $350 000.

The region wide stats hide some variations. Esquimalt and Oak Bay are doing better than other areas whereas the city of of Victoria is doing worse. Saanich East is still doing well whereas Saanich West is not.

We have about 1300 real estate agents in Greater Victoria. In a normal year they should expect to be on one side or the other of close to 12 sales each. 2009 will see them average a bit more than one every two months. Worse than this is that their commissions for each sale will be lower. In 2007 the average sale was worth $7500 in commissions to the agent. In 2009 this will drop to $6700. In 2007 the average gross earnings for an agent in Victoria was $86 000 in 2007, in 2009 it will be about $43 000. Their gross earnings will be cut in half but their expenses will not be down from where they were.

By the end of the year I would expect to see a third of the real estate agents to retire - I expect most of the older ones to fade away. I also expect a lot of the newest people to quit because they will not be able to make any money.

There are still some real estate agents who will still be doing well, one of them is Andrew Holenchuck. He is with Re/Max Camosun for only a short time but he seems to have knack at selling houses. If I were selling in this market, he would be my first choice.